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HOT LINKS
READ: Waste Management Picks, Bets, Full Preview
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GOLF BETS!!!!
Justin Thomas (13/1) — This feels like the chalk pick of the century, but here we are. JT’s recent from coupled with his event history is pretty hard to ignore. He could have won at Pebble if he’d just made a few putts Saturday, finishing as just one of two players inside the Top 20 who lost strokes on the green for the two rounds at Pebble Beach. Thomas has played in Phoenix every year since 2015, and hasn’t finished worse than T17 in any of the past six seasons.
Sahith Theegala (45/1) — This was Sahith’s tournament to win in 2022 before an untimely trip into the water on 17. I’ve been betting Theegala in preparation for the big break through, and this seems like as good of a spot as any. His wild driver has played here in both starts, and he’s gaining over a stroke per round on the greens over his eight rounds of competitive play. I do slightly worry he suffers a bit from Tommy Fleetwood syndrome where one bad round takes him out contention from winning, but the odds are deep enough to give him another whirl.
Hideki (55/1) — I’m weak. I can’t miss out on the party at these odds.
Adam Scott (78/1; 5 Places) —Tambo gave me the sell on the Tuesdays DraftKings show, and so I used my Bet365 30% boost on Scott after digging a bit deeper. I hadn’t been paying close attention to what the Aussie has been up to recently, but it’s been quite solid no matter where in the world he has teed off. He made his PGA TOUR debut a week ago, gaining +4.2 between driving and approach, after following his T7 to open the year in Dubai. Less we forget his T6/T4 run through both Australian events to close the year. I mean, I forgot about them; but now you don’t have to. He doens’t have a weekly of experience in Phoenix, but he’s the prototypical skill set for winners in the desert.
WATCH: 2024 Waste Management Open Picks, Bets, Preview, One & Done | Pebble Beach + LIV Mexico Recap
Tom Hoge (100/1; 5 Places) — I’ve detailed a bunch of different ways to succeed at TPC Scottsdale, but one that gets over looked is simply firing at pins and making a bunch of 15 footers. As outlined, putting from that range is easier here than most places, but Hoge has shown a propensity over the past few years to just go on these nuclear approach streaks when he’s feeling it. He did it when he won Pebble a few years back and he most certainly did it at Sawgrass last year when he finished third. Hoge enters having gained on approach in eight straight and does have two Top 25 finishes in Phoenix over the last four years. If triple digit winners keep hitting, gotta take a few, right? Plus, the casino is super close to the course, so he’ll have no problem getting his winnings on to the felt if he can find a way to come through Sunday.
Austin Eckroat (175/1 with 5 Places) — On a pure hunch, Eckroat’s had success at both last year’s US Open and the Tom Weiskopf TPC Craig Range at the Bryson Nelson. I think we’ve all had him pegged to win an event at some point over the past 12 months and this may be too big of an event to notch career win No. 1. Realistically, a Top 20 bet is the play, but I’m greedy.
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SUPER BOWL BETS
Deebo MVP 25/1
WATCH: Super Bowl 58 Pick, Best Super Bowls | McRib Review, Sports Streaming Service | Cust Corner Nachos
I also threw together this SGP. I’ll have a more fleshed out one in Saturday’s newsletter, but it’ll be something like this
WMPO Weather
As Andrew Putnam showcased on Twitter this afternoon, it’s not all that nice in Phoenix at the moment.
The Pro-Am Wednesday afternoon was cancelled due to rain and hail, and looking at the forecast for the week, a few things stick out. The normal fast and firm conditions likely will not apply. Play Thursday could get delayed briefly, if not, the scheduled afternoon wave likely gets to play in the soft, non-windy conditions. Also, it’s pretty cold for golf. Not seeing a temperature above 60 all week. Even at elevation, balls won’t travel as far; we were targeting distance off the tee anyway, it may be more importantly than we realized. Especially on the Par 5s.
DRAFTKINGS
There’s a chance Scottie and JT could be a combined 80% owned in smaller tornaments. 22% and 23% for them, even in large field torunaments it seems far too low for me.
WATCH: WM Phoenix Open DraftKings Picks, Lineups, Weather Report | Head-To-Head Lineup Draft
You can see on Fantasy National, those are the “calculated ownerships” but if you look under “Actual LU generated” I think you’ll get a number closer to that. Maybe both above 30%. I’m no scientistian, but that would be my experienced guess. Track all ownership in real time at FNGC
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DraftKings FADE — Sam Burns: With all the WDs Burns has become the attractive not-to-expesnive option, to the point where he’s now projected to be owned among the players without some of the glaring weaknesses. Burns can always get hot enough with his putter to overachieve but his lack of consistent T2G at a Course which demands it year-over-year is scary enough to pass at these odds.
If you’re looking for the lower owner, pivot options on DraftKings this week, this is the list.
You don’t need to just play these guys, but mixing in a few in can help lineups get different in a hurry.
— PM