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2024 Waste Management Open: Field
Field: 132 Players
Cut: Top 65 and Ties
Lineup Lock: Thursday, February 8
Defending Champ: Scottie Scheffler
It was cool to see the TOUR reward its greatest success over the past decade making it a signature event in 2023, getting all the world’s best (at least the eligible ones) to congregate on Phoenix to stage a People’s Open with all the stars. It was unnecessary, though. The Waste Management doesn’t need extra star power. The tournament and venue (and crowds) itself are the stars, and enough big names wouldn’t dare take a pass regardless of status.
The “signature” status actually works out better for viewers if it’s given to Pebble Beach. That tournament was dying on the vine due to lack of commitments and placement on the schedule, and while the event only went off with hitches, it was still cool to see the stars at Pebble Beach. I’m hoping they run it back again in the upcoming years because this stretch from Torrey-RIV can make four straight weeks great golf. Weather pending, as we found out.
Again, even without elevated status, Phoenix still has an excellent field. Scottie Scheffler is back to try and three-peat and is joined by: Xander Schauffele, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Brian Harman, Max Homa, Wyndham Clark, Tom Kim, Jordan Spieth, Sahith Theegala, Cameron Young, Sungjae Im, Sam Burns, Lucas Glover, Rickie Fowler, Hideki Matsuyama, and Justin Thomas. Not too shabby.
Hovland was supposed to be in the field but pulled out Monday morning. Xander withdrew Monday afternoon.
And, no, your eyes have no deceived you, Bud Cauley is actually in the field. It’s been so long I had to “learning spelling” on “Cauley” again. This will his first start on the PGA TOUR since September 2020. Cauley was involved in a major car accident in 2018 where he suffered a concussion, six broken ribs, a punctured lung and a broken left leg. He returned briefly but has undergone a series of procedures over the past couple years which prevented him from making a return to pro golf. He’s played twice already on KFT this season with T21/T35 results in Bahamas. If you’ve been playing DraftKings golf for a while know, you’ll remember Cauley as king of the $6Ks in most events. Great to see him back.
Key Stats
Strokes Gained: Ball Striking
Par 4s Gained: 450-500 Yards
Eagles Gained
Opportunities Gained
Mayo’s Key Stats powered by FantasyNational.com
Course
Course: TPC Scottsdale
Yardage: 7,261
Par: 71
Greens: Poa trivialis/Perennial rye overseed
Par 3's (4): Average distance - 188 yards
- Five holes on this course have a par rate of at least 69% and all of the Par 3's are included
- 11 of the top 13 finishers in this event last season gained strokes on Par 3's
Par 4's (11): Average distance - 440 yards
-Two of the three hardest holes on the course are Par 4's come early on the back-9 (Holes 11 and 14)
-The three shortest Par 4's (1-10-17) are all of the six easiest holes while the four longest (5-8-11-14) are all among the eight toughest.
Par 5's (3): Average distance - 556 yards
-Three of the four easiest holes on the course. All of them held a 2.3%+ eagle rate with Hole 15 potentially being a hinge hole (2.3% eagle rate, 2.5% double-or-worse rate)
-Par 5's are always meaningful, but Scheffler did lose 2.1 strokes on them last season during his win
DRAFTKINGS SHOWDOWN STREAK
Going back-to-front is a minor edge chasing a birdie streak. Holes 17-18-1 play 0.25 strokes under par while Holes 8-9-10 play 0.03 strokes over par. The easiest of the holes in consideration is, pretty easily, the 332-yard Par 4 17th (39.1% birdie-or-better rate), as good a starting point for a streak as any. Also, don't rule out the in-round form. Heading into the 17th are two the seven easiest holes on the course -- a contrast to Hole #7 being the lead into the other streak potential as the second toughest on the course.
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Past Winners
2023: Scottie Scheffler -19
2022: Scottie Scheffler -16
2021: Brooks Koepka -19
2020: Webb Simpson -17
2019: Rickie Fowler -17
2018: Gary Woodland -18
2017: Hideki Matsuyama -17
2016: Hideki Matsuyama -14
2015: Brooks Koepka -15
2023: Scottie Scheffler
- He matched Nick Taylor with a 65 on Sunday (second best round of the day). He was better than Taylor just once in four rounds (fired a 64 on Friday)
-Scheffler led the field in Prox: 150-175, a distance range that all top 9 finishers gained
2022: Scottie Scheffler
- His 62 on Saturday was 2 strokes better than any other round for any other golfer during the tournament (that as the only round in which he topped Cantlay)
- Of the nine that gained 5+ strokes with the flat stick, six cashed top 10 checks
2021: Brooks Koepka
-Entered Sunday 5 back of Jordan Spieth/Xander Schauffele, shot his best round of the week (65) while the other had their worst (Spieth was 11 shots worse on Sunday than Saturday)
-Each of the top 10 finishers gained Good Drives on the field (five of them lost distance)
2020: Webb Simpson
-He was 15 under par on Friday-Saturday (2 under total on Thursday and Sunday)
-22 of the top 24 finishers gained strokes on Par 3's (that was what kept Finau in it -- he gained 4 more strokes on Par 3's than Simpson)
2019: Rickie Fowler
-Fowler was a Round 1 leader (64, bogey free) and fired the third best Round 2 (65), allowing him to overcome a 74 on Sunday (double bogey on #5, triple bogey on #11)
-Fowler posted the best putting performance of his career (+9.5), but putting wasn't otherwise predictive (only four of the top 16 putters for the week finished inside the top 20)
2018: Gary Woodland (-18, playoff win over Chez Reavie)
Highlight: Gary closed with a 64 on Sunday and was the 2nd best player in the field in SG: APP
The top-8 finishers all gained on Proximity from 200+
2017: Hideki Matsuyama (-17, playoff win over Webb Simpson)
Highlight: ‘Deki shot 68 or better in all four rounds and picked up 13.1 strokes T2G on the field.
Each of the top-15 finishers gained strokes with the flat stick (6 of the top-8 putters for the week cashed top-15 paychecks)
2016: Hideki Matsuyama (-14, playoff win over Rickie Fowler)
Highlight: Three players shot 65 in Round 1 to hold the lead … they finished 1st, 2nd and T-6th for the week
Each of the top-7 players in SG: APP finished top 20 on the final leaderboard.
2015: Brooks Koepka (-15, one clear of Matsuyama, Ryan Palmer and Bubba Watson)
Highlight: Made his move on moving day with a 64 (-7, he was -3 entering the round)
14 of the top-16 finishers gained strokes off the tee
Notes
11 players who have hoisted novelty checks in Phoenix have also won THE PLAYERS Championship. Scottie Scheffler joined that list with his win at TPC Sawgrass a year ago. (It’s actually 12 if, like Cust, you count Hideki in 2020 as a win).
I was trying to look between the courses and figure out why that may be the case, and outside of both being TPC course and having a series of very difficult long Par 4s, it’s kind of a mystery to me. Not a complete mystery, mind you; it’s just, when you think Sawgrass, my first through goes to Wyndham Championship and a rota of short Bermuda courses (Sony, Heritages, etc). But those crossovers don’t seem to work at all.
Stats that have correlated to finishing position in the past five years, beyond the traditional Strokes Gained metrics, have been Par 5s Gained/Eagles Gained and Par 4s Gained between 450-500 yards. There are five holes here from that distance, three of which are the most difficult on the course.
Like most weeks, approach and putting matter the most of any stats, but TPC Scottsdale provides a much flatter distribution for each of the individual Tee-To-Green metrics than most events. We get tournaments where the approach can be worth as much as four times the value of driving and chipping, but not this week.
Maybe that’s the key. The complete game. Because a second glance at the past winners shows two a very obvious correlations I’ve some how missed all these years:
1. Name brand players win in Phoenix (We’ll see if this holds up in the year of the longshot)
2. All these guys are US Open winners or consistent high end finishers.
Brooks, Webb, and Woodland are all former US Champs while two-time (TWO-TIME) defending Phoenix winner Scotty Scheffler has consecutive Top 3 US Open finishes. Hideki has a pair of Top 4 US Open finishes and Rickie’s fifth place finish at LACC a year was his third finish inside the Top 5.
It’s possible, the attack strategy is the key, despite playing about 400 yards shorter than the South Course at Torrey Pines, expect most of the field to attack with drivers off the tee. This event possesses the highest average driving distance of any event and at 305 yards with more than 61% of all drives going over 300 yards. For reference, another desert course (And TPC Venue), TPC Summerlin sits second in annual average driving distance (302 yards)
All three Par 5s are reachable in two, but No. 15 tends to be a magnet for the water. Much like its aqua brethren, No. 18 at TPC Twin Cities, you must carry the hazard to reach it in two. 70+ balls typically find themselves nestled at the bottom of the lake during the tournament. Despite there only being three Par 5s, they combined for the fifth-best score to par overall when going for the green (-572) in 2020. Overall, TPC Scottsdale annually sits inside the Top 5 courses with the most water ball in the neighbourhood of 225+.
You know, maybe all the water and being good at avoiding it is the link between Scottsdales and Sawgrass?
Beyond the Par 5s, the drivable par 4 17th is the other spot on the course to gain back significant strokes on the field. Just 332 yards, every player can take a crack at the green from the tee box, but with water looming off the left side, both eagle and bogey are in play depending on the drive. Originally, I assumed it was an ultimate risk/reward proposition, but, players have made par 40% of the time on No. 17 after they go into the water. Considering the field makes birdie over 38% of the time and eagle more than 1% of the time, there’s little incentive to lay up. In 2020, 51 balls found the water off the tee, while 63 landed on the green.
No. 17 is also the hole that features the most putts from over 80 feet. There have been over 220 putts from 80 feet or beyond on this green and almost half have resulted in a three-putt or worse (49.3%).
The GCSAA have finally changed the green type from ““TifEagle Bermuda over-seeded with velvet bentgrass, Poa trivialis and perennial ryegrass .100.” to a much more simple, “Poa trivialis/Perennial rye overseed.” These greens are historically firm and run faster than the average TOUR event, which has helped out the poorer putters as shorter putts have become easier in these conditions. In 2020, the field made 89% of putts inside of 10 feet while players have made around 17% of their putts between 15-25 feet, making it one of the five easiest courses from that range. The greens at scottsdale are an outlier in this part of the schedule featuring the infuriating putting surfaces of Torrey, Pebble and RIV.
Since 2000, just nine 54-hole leaders have gone on to convert the victory on Sunday, and only three since 2009 — Phil in 2013, Fowler in 2019, and Scheffler last season.
Johnny Miller (1974 and 1975), Matsuyama (2016 and 2017), Scheffler (2022/2023) are the only back-to-back winners in Phoenix, while Arnold Palmer, Phil Mickelson, Gene Littler and Mark Calcavecchia are the only three-time winners of this event. There have been multiple repeat winners since 2000: Mickelson, Matsuyama, Koepka, Scheffler and JB Holmes have each won twice.
This event has gone to a playoff in five of the past eight years and was settled by one stroke twice. Only 2023 was different: Scheffler beat Nick Taylor by two shots.
All-time, 10 players have won in their first appearance at TPC Scottsdale dating back to 1932. Koepka (2015), Stanley (2012) and Holmes (2005) are the only players to accomplish that feat this millennium.
Scrambling and GIRs are higher than the TOUR average while hitting fairways is slightly below most courses (59 percent to 62 percent average). As reflected in the GIR rate, the rough isn’t very penalizing, although there isn’t much of it. Once you veer too far from the short grass, you’re in the desert. There are 68 sand traps littered across the course with water in play on six holes. There’s also an abundance of cacti littered across the sand. Ask Spencer Levin.
Of the players in the field, Thomas, Xander, Scheffler, Hideki, and Sungjae have gained the most total strokes over the last five years.
The cut line has been under par the past two seasons after seven years of an Even or above par cutline.
Picks/Bets
Justin Thomas (13/1)
This feels like the chalk pick of the century, but here we are. JT’s recent from coupled with his event history is pretty hard to ignore. He could have won at Pebble if he’d just made a few putts Saturday, finishing as just one of two players inside the Top 20 who lost strokes on the green for the two rounds at Pebble Beach. Thomas has played in Phoenix every year since 2015, and hasn’t finished worse than T17 in any of the past six seasons.
Sahith Theegala (45/1)
This was Sahith’s tournament to win in 2022 before an untimely trip into the water on 17. I’ve been betting Theegala in preparation for the big break through, and this seems like as good of a spot as any. His wild driver has played here in both starts, and he’s gaining over a stroke per round on the greens over his eight rounds of competitive play. I do slightly worry he suffers a bit from Tommy Fleetwood syndrome where one bad round takes him out contention from winning, but the odds are deep enough to give him another whirl.
Tom Hoge (100/1 5 Places)
I’ve detailed a bunch of different ways to succeed at TPC Scottsdale, but one that gets over looked is simply firing at pins and making a bunch of 15 footers. As outlined, putting from that range is easier here than most places, but Hoge has shown a propensity over the past few years to just go on these nuclear approach streaks when he’s feeling it. He did it when he won Pebble a few years back and he most certainly did it at Sawgrass last year when he finished third. Hoge enters having gained on approach in eight straight and does have two Top 25 finishes in Phoenix over the last four years. If triple digit winners keep hitting, gotta take a few, right? Plus, the casino is super close to the course, so he’ll have no problem getting his winnings on to the felt if he can find a way to come through Sunday.
Austin Eckroat (175/1 with 5 Places)
On a pure hunch, Eckroat’s had success at both last year’s US Open and the Tom Weiskopf TPC Craig Range at the Bryson Nelson. I think we’ve all had him pegged to win an event at some point over the past 12 months and this may be too big of an event to notch career win No. 1. Realistically, a Top 20 bet is the play, but I’m greedy.