Week 2 Picks, Betting Trends, Golf Picks, Cheatsheets
+ Week 2 Spread Show Link
Use code “MAYO” at underdog for a deposit bonus up to $1000
Here’s the Underdog promo schedule for the week. May as well use that deposit bonus on a the CeeDee FREE PICK starting Wednesday.
PME NFL CONTENT
I added a new Monday show to the mix. Should drop around Noon ET. Me and Jake POWER RANK each of the teams every week and give a breakdown on the notable Fantasy Trends along with it.
WATCH: Week 2 NFL POWER RANKINGS | Fantasy Football Notes, Week 2 Waiver Wire Pickups, Injuries
Garion is sticking around for SNL again in Week 2. Starts at 715pm ET up until the start of Sunday Night Football. It was a fun show to kick things off.
WATCH: NFL Week 1 Recap, Tom Brady Review, 1st & 2nd Year QB Rankings | Week 2 NFL Betting Lines
I’ve also been doing quick hitters every morning on the MMN YouTube channel. It’s designed for people to have a spot to hear all the updated news and spin in less than 10 minutes. It’s also up on the Fantasy Football Picks & Bets feed for Audio Only if that’s your jam. Sub and rate to help us out!
Apple: https://bit.ly/NFLPBApple
Spotify: https://bit.ly/NFLPBSpot
If you’re looking for the weekly Fantasy Position Rankings, I believe they’ll be dropping on Thursday in this newsletter now. Pushing them back to later in the week. But I have updated all pickups and such from the Monday newsletter here…
READ: Fantasy Pickups, Waiver Wire, and Streaming Options
INJURY REPORT
Last Updated: 9/12
TNF BUF at MIA
De’Von Achane (Ankle) — Game Time Decision; Trending Towards IN
Raheem Mostert (Chest) — OUT For TNF
Malik Washington (quadricep) — OUT For TNF
QB
Russell Wilson (Calf) — Justin Fields Expected to Start
Jordan Love (Knee) — OUT 2-6 Weeks; Malik Willis starting Week 2
RB
Christian McCaffrey — Questionable; Trending towards OUT
Kenneth Walker III (abdomen) — Questionable; Did not Practice
Josh Jacobs (back) — Limited Practice; Expected IN
MarShawn Lloyd (Hamstring) — Questionable; Trending towards IN
WR
Rome Odunze (Knee) — Trending towards OUT
Hollywood Brown (Shoulder) — Trending towards OUT
Jordan Addison (Ankle) — Trending towards OUT
Tee Higgins (Hamstring) — Trending towards OUT
Josh Reynolds (Achilles) — Questionable; Did not Practice
Devaughn Vele (ribs) — Questionable; Did not Practice
Keenan Allen (Leg) — Questionable; Did not Practice
Jameson Williams (ankle) — Questionable; Expected IN
Jerry Jeudy — Trending IN
Josh Downs (ankle) — Questionable; Limited Practice
Darius Slayton (Head) — In Concussion Protocol; Did not Practice
AT Perry (Hand) — Questionable
Kadarius Toney Signed with CLE
Puka Nacua (Knee) — Placed on IR; Out at Least 4 Games
TE
Dalton Schultz (ankle) — Did not Practice
David Njoku (Ankle) — High Ankle Sprain; Expected OUT 2-6 Weeks
Jake Ferguson (Knee) — Questionable; Trending towards OUT
GOLF BETS
PROCORE CHAMPIONSHIP INFO
Field: 144 Players
Cut: Top 65 & Ties
Course: Silverado Resort
Yardage: 7,123
Par: 72
Greens: Poa Annua/bentgrass
Average Green Size: 5,400 sq. ft.
Number of Sand Bunkers: 53
Number of Holes Water is in Play: 2
Fairways are just 20 yards wide on average: Driving accuracy was only 42% a year ago.
If Underdog releases Props for Fairways hit, I’d expect that market to be super soft. The average was 5.88 fairways hit per player a year ago.
PROCORE
WATCH: 2024 Procore Championship Picks, Bets, One and Done | Irish Open, LIV Chicago, Presidents Cup
Keith Mitchell 45 — Mitchell ranks 1st T2G in the field over the past 24 rounds. But it’s the same story as every week with Killah Keith: Will he make enough putts to cross the finish line? Amazingly, he gained +3.3 on the greens at Sedgefield his last time out. Problem is, he hasn’t gained with his putter in consecutive starts since the 2023 Wells Fargo & PGA Championship. If he got his wife pregnant that weekend the kid would almost one 9 months old now. Still, Steele, Champ, and Tway all just mashed the field T2G and gained three or fewer strokes putting in their wins. That’s the path for Mitchell.
Eric Cole 45 — Cole made it all the way to the penultimate event in the playoffs before coming up just short in Denver. Looking deeper though, Cole ended the year with three straight Top 10s in the last three non-elevated field/Major he played, while gaining with his irons in six if his final seven overall. This field certainly isn’t setting records for field strength. He was 4th at Silverado last year too, a course which has been pretty sticky for course history. Plus, I had to have one guy who makes putts.
Tom Hoge (58/1 after 30% boost from 45/1) — Hoge is a victim of his success on the odds board. JJ Spaun did moderately well at alternate events and weaker fields to end the year so he gets a big boost. Hoge leads all players in approach at the BMW Championship then gets blown away by Scheffler, Morikawa, etc at East Lake and he’s well behind Spaun (and many others) on the board in Napa.
Adam Svensson 55 — Just another member of the can’t putt, T2G all stars.
Nick Hardy 140 (8 Places) — Top 5 in ball striking in the short term, 16th in Opportunities Gained (Putts for eagle/birdie from inside 20-feet), and 34th in driving distance. He’s simply been putting himself out of tournaments. Basically, load up with enough of these great T2G players who are terrible on the greens and pray one of them has a decent putting week.
Irish Open
Bob Mac 22 — Bobert Mac in the 20s in this event seems like a good enough price for his 2024 results against this type of field, especially overseas.
Nicolai Hojgaard 55 — Brother Rasmus comes in better overall form, but Nicolai is the better player overall. He made the cut at all four Majors, was Top 10 at the Olympics, and is the reigning winner of the DP World Tour Championship last November. This is simply to say he probably shouldn’t be double the number as his brother. Much like Hoge, he’s being penalized on the odds board because he played against better competition.
Ryo Hisatune 80 — He’s struggled in his return to Europe in the Czech and European Masters, but he won right around this time of year last season in France, and did have a near miss at the Wyndham (T3) in his final PGA start of 2024. Plus, his caddy got some big game experience looping for Hideki in Memphis.
STAT POWER RANKINGS
WEEK 2 SPREADS
The Spread show is LIVEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!! Picks for each out the games, previews, and a Cust Corner hitting on Mountian Climbing, Truck Driving, and a Liquor Pimp
As always, sub to the newsletter to get the advanced link to the spread show.
WATCH: NFL Week 2 Spread Picks, NFL Game Predictions, Survivor Picks + Cust Corner: Climbling
Week 2 Betting Trends
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (TNF)
Betting: Each of their past three road games against the Dolphins have gone under the total by at least 13 points.
Betting: Over the past decade, the Dolphins are the fourth worst primetime team in terms of cover rate (39.1%, 9-14-1, only the Jets, Commanders, and Buccaneers have been worse)
Betting: Miami is 5-1 ATS in their past six September games within the division with each of the past five coming in under the total.
New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys
Betting: New Orleans is 1-10-1 ATS (9.1%) over the last 12 seasons in Week 2.
Betting: Dallas is 17-8 ATS (68%) at home over the past three seasons, second best.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions
Betting: Tampa Bay has covered seven of 10 road games as an underdog since the beginning of 2022 (2.1 PPG better than the spread over those games).
Betting: Jared Goff is 24-6 outright when favored by 6+ points, but be careful in assuming that a victory means a cover – his team is 16-13-1 ATS in those 30 games.
Indianapolis Colts at Green Bay Packers
Betting: Since Week 6, the Colts have the second highest over rate (9-4, 69.2%)
Betting: Green Bay is a league-best 9-2-1 ATS (81.8%) in Week 2’s since 2012.
New York Jets at Tennessee Titans
Betting: Over the past five seasons, a team on short rest (five or fewer days) is 13-15 ATS (46.4%) against teams on normal or extended rest (6+ days) in September. In all other months, teams in that position are 77-63-3 ATS (55%). For those wondering, under tickets have cashed 60.7% of the time in those September instances.
Betting: Live bet! The Titans fell to 1-7 since the beginning of last season when scoring first (the NFL win rate when scoring first is over 65% during that stretch)
San Francisco 49ers at Minnesota Vikings
Betting: San Francisco is 9-3-1 ATS (75%) over their past 13 games as a road favorite, bettering the spread by an average of 7.4 points per game.
Betting: Unders are 6-2 in Minnesota’s past eight September games.
Seattle Seahawks at New England Patriots
Betting: Geno Smith is 5-9-3 ATS (35.7%) as a favorite. Think this game goes over the low total? Smith is 1-6-2 ATS when favored in a game that goes over the number.
Betting: The Patriots were 1-7-1 ATS at home last season (unders: 6-3).
New York Giants at Washington Commanders
Betting: New York has covered five of their past six road divisional games with seven of their past nine such games going over the total.
Betting: Washington has covered just three of their past 12 divisional games (last divisional cover: Week 4 at Philadelphia).
Los Angeles Chargers at Carolina Panthers
Betting: Unders are 5-2 in Justin Herbert’s last seven starts as a road favorite (unders went just 1-7 in his first eight career such spots).
Betting: Since the start of 2022, home teams catching more than a FG cover 56.7% of the time (45.3% cover rate when they are a home dog by no more than a FG).
Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars
Betting: Since the start of 2022, overs are 13-4 when Cleveland plays on the road (76.5%).
Betting: Trevor Lawrence is just 5-9 ATS (35.7%) when favored in a game with a projected total under 45 points.
Las Vegas Raiders at Baltimore Ravens
Betting: From 2016-21, teams catching more than 7 points covered 49.2% of the time (54.1% unders). Since: 56.5% cover rate and 53.6% overs.
Betting: Unders are 5-1 following Lamar Jackson’s past six outright losses (the Ravens have covered three straight following a loss)
Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals
Betting: Overs are 5-2 in Matthew Stafford’s last seven games as a road favorite (four of those games have gone over the total by 6+ points).
Betting: The underdog has covered in 20 of 34 Kyler Murray career home starts.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos
Betting: Russell Wilson (calf, status TBD) is 10-19-1 ATS over his past 31 road starts.
Betting: Under tickets, since 2020, cash at a 60.8% rate when the projected total is under 39 points.
Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs
Betting: The Bengals are 17-9 ATS as an underdog when Joe Burrow starts (unders are 15-10-1 in those contests)
Betting: Kansas City has covered, including the playoffs, seven straight games. An eighth straight would make them one of just five teams to do that since the beginning of 2019 (most recent: 2022 Titans in Weeks 3-11).
Chicago Bears at Houston Texans (SNF)
Betting: Over the past decade, rookie QBs in regular season primetime games are 38-26-1 ATS (59.4%) with under tickets coming through at a near identical rate (39-26, 60%)
Betting: QBs in one of their first two seasons are 10-17-1 ATS (37%) when favored by at least six points since the start of 2022.
Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles (MNF)
Betting: Since 2015, unders are 13-4-1 when the Falcons play in primetime (23.5%, easily the lowest rate in the league over that stretch).
Betting: Atlanta is 6-11 ATS (35.3%) on the road since the beginning of 2022, failing to meet the spread expectation by an average of 5.1 points in the process.
Betting: Over the past two seasons, unders are 53-29 (64.6%) when a team on extended rest (7+ days) plays on primetime. When this game kicks off, the Eagles will have had nine days to prep – when that extended rest filter is ramped up to 9+ days, unders are 21-7 (75%) during those two seasons.
— PM