Week 11 Injury Report, Updated Ranks, DK Own
+ Props, Rankings and Cheatsheets
Week 11 Props
If you haven’t played at Prize Picks yet. Now’s the time to change that. Get a deposit match up to $100 (So, deposit $100, and get a FREE $100) by using code “MMN”.
Plus, if you sign up before Sunday kickoff you get to take advantage of the MMN Props BONUS. Make a 5-pick entry (NO MNF PLAYERS) for $7.11. That amount qualifies it for the MMN Props Contest. If you go 5/5 you get paid 10x for winning AND get a $50 bonus because you played an entry of $7.11. Seems like a good way to get 17x your money for a low investment.
Come square off against me in the MMN Props pool, here are two of the picks I’m going with…
On the pure prop front, only one really stands out to me above the rest. Of course, I’ll end up playing a bunch by kickoff, but I’ve had my eye on Jon Bates since the news came out both Logan Thomas and Ricky Seals-Jones are both OUT against Carolina. No books (as of this writing) have posted a reception total, which is preferable to me. But I’m guessing they will by kickoff. My guess, they set his reception prop at 1.5 or 2. I’m heavy over on both of those. If they don’t end up emerging, I’ll side with the over 15.5 yards from DK Sportsbook
Other than that, Tua anytime rushing TD at +240 looks nice too. I like their rushing yardage props as well, but they’re a much better price at Prize Picks than any Sportsbook. It doesn’t seem like much but Rodgers Prize Picks rushing total is 3.5 (5.5 at DK) and Tua’s is 6.5 (9.5 at DK). Expect both those to make my 7/11 entry as well.
Week 11 Rankings
BYE WEEKS: LAR, DEN
Last Updated: Post Inactives
Week 11 Injuries
Last Updated: Post Inactives
Elijah Mitchell (Finger) Likely OUT
JaMycal Hasty (Ankle) Likely OUT
Aaron Jones (knee) OUT; Expected to miss multiple weeks
Alvin Kamara OUT
Jeremy McNichols (Concussion) OUT
Jermar Jefferson (knee, ankle) OUT
Kareem Hunt (Calf) OUT
Chris Carson (Neck) OUT FOR SEASON
James Robinson (Knee/Heel) IN
Nick Chubb (COVID) IN
Saquon Barkley (ankle) Likely IN
Alex Collins (groin) Likely IN
Clyde Edwards-Helaire Likely IN
Latavius Murray (ankle) IN
Tony Jones (ankle) Expected to be Activated from IR and Play
Jamaal Williams (thigh) IN
Miles Sanders (ankle) IN
Devontae Booker (Hip) QUESTIONABLE
Chase Edmonds (Ankle) ON IR
Cordarrelle Patterson (ankle) Missed Week 11
Marquise Brown (Thigh) OUT
Amari Cooper (COVID LIST) OUT
Anthony Schwartz (concussion) OUT
DeAndre Hopkins (Hamstring) OUT
Curtis Samuel (groin) Likely OUT
Will Fuller (finger) OUT
Antonio Brown (ankle) OUT
Allen Robinson (hamstring) OUT
Allen Lazard OUT
Sterling Shepard (hamstring) OUT
Calvin Ridley (personal) OUT At Least 1 More Week
CeeDee Lamb (Arm) Likely IN
Chase Claypool (toe) Likely IN
Donovan Peoples-Jones (core) OUT
Lamar Jackson (illness) OUT
Jared Goff (oblique) Likely OUT
Taysom Hill (foot) QUESTIONABLE
Colt McCoy (Pec) QUESTIONABLE
Baker Mayfield (Knee) IN
Ben Roethlisberger (COVID LIST) IN
Kyler Murray (ankle) Game Time Decision
Sam Darnold (Shoulder) OUT
Zach Wilson (knee) QUESTIONABLE
Geoff Swaim (concussion) OUT
Ricky Seals-Jones (Hip) OUT
Logan Thomas (Hamstring) OUT
Dallas Goedert (Head) IN
Rob Gronkowski (Ribs) Likely IN
WEEK 11 PLAYER NOTES
Joe Burrow and Derek Carr play each other this week and neither is priced as a top-8 QB on the main slate. Both average over 30 passes per game. This season, in games with an over/under of 50+ and a spread under 7, 69.2% of QBs that have thrown over 30 passes have passed for multiple scores. On average, those QBs with multiple TD passes in those spots have averaged 304 passing yards per game. Neither is going to be popular enough and both come with very viable stacking/bring back options: discussed it on the Thursday show with Ryan Hodge.
The Raiders are the best defense in terms of completion percentage on deep passes, theoretically a scheme thing as they blitz less often than anyone. To that end: Ja’Marr Chase (13.6 aDOT), Tee Higgins (10.5 aDOT) and Tyler Boyd (7.4 aDOT).
Twice this season has a defense allowed 8 yards per play while their offense actually outgained the opposition: the Ravens in Week 2 against the Chiefs and the Ravens in Week 5 against the Colts. Point being … “Ravens” doesn’t mean what it used to and David Montgomery is priced as if it does.
The Lions allow the 4th highest sack rate when NOT blitzed and the Browns have the 4th highest sack rate when they DON’T blitz. Either the Browns get home OR the Lions overachieve, block above their expectation and we have 40 pass attempts from Jared Goff in a scoreboard chasing spot. Either way, the Browns D/ST is my favorite to break the slate and they aren’t priced that way.
WEEK 11 BETS
Good news, the Saints and Wahsington numbers have both gotten better since we filmed the show!
WEEK 11 GALAXY BRAIN: Logistics behind loading up on Chiefs/Cowboys
Is this a full slate with 12 games on it? Yes. Is the Monday quality of your bank account going to hinge on how you work around one of those games? Also, yes. That Chiefs/Cowboys game is going to dictate tournament success this weekend: did it bust all together, did everyone pay off, was there a single cheap play to broke the slate, was the chalk good … yadda yadda yadda. I’m here to help you build a lineup around getting full exposure (four players) to that game.
David Montgomery vs BAL: 30th. That’s where the Ravens rank in yards per play allowed this season and the Bears had the entire bye week to optimize their attack. They made it clear that Montgomery is “the guy” after featuring him in his return to action in Week 9 and given that my numbers label this game as more of a coin toss than Vegas is suggesting, getting him priced outside the top-15 at the position is a steal. Nothing about “vs BAL” is going to entice the public, the non-newsletter subscribers, but you’re better than that!
AJ Dillon at MIN: Could he be popular? Why yes, he will be. But we need a unique build, not nine unique players. Jeff Wilson, Mark Ingram, James Conner and Antonio Gibson figure to generate some ownership, so I don’t think the Dillon number gets out of hand. The Vikings rank 25th or worse in … red zone defense, yardage allowed before contact to RBs per carry and overall success rate against the run. Included in those numbers is a game against the McCaffrey-less Panthers, the Lions that gave Jamaal Williams more carries than D’Andre Swift and a Ravens team that clearly believes running backs don’t matter. QUADzilla profiles as a nice per dollar player and if you dig way too deep into this stuff, it gets better. In Weeks 1-7, the Vikes blitzed 26.6% of the time. Over the past three weeks, that number is up to 39%. I don’t normally site blitz numbers in a pro RB argument, but did you know that, since 2018, GB RBs rank 4th in yards per carry before contact against loaded boxes? Of course you didn’t, how would you? Point being that Aaron Rodgers has the ability to identify defensive schemes and put his guys in a spot to succeed. 20 touches for Dillon is a fine expectation and if we get that, I think he has no problem paying off this price tag.
Cole Beasley vs IND: Covered in the Tuesday’s post. Make sure to go check that one out!
Dan Arnold vs SF: He has as good a shot as anyone to lead the second tier of TEs in points this week and he’s simply not priced in that fashion. Over his past five games, he’s pacing toward an 85-1,000 season and how many TEs definitively rank higher than him in terms of hierarchy to his team’s success through the air? You want the list of TEs since Week 5 with more targets outside the numbers than Arnold? I just gave it to you. There isn’t one and that’s noteworthy considering that the 49ers allow opponents to be on-target with 84.2% of those passes, the highest rate on this slate. Liked him when pricing first came out and have liked him more throughout the research process.
NYJ D/ST vs MIA: Are the Jets good? Of course not. But they blitz at a top-10 rate (3rd highest since Week 5) and that creates opportunity. You know what else does? Allowing pressure when NOT blitzed and the Dolphins are bottom-10 in that this season. It may not be pretty, but it fits this build and I think they are as playable as any sub-$3,000 D/ST this week.
*Remember to flex a late start guy for optimal late swap options
WEEK 11 DRAFTKINGS OWNERSHIP
KC/DAL Game Stack
CIN/LV Game Stack