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Week 11 Injury Report, Updated Ranks, DK Own
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Week 11 Injury Report, Updated Ranks, DK Own

+ Props, Rankings and Cheatsheets

Mayo Media
Nov 20, 2021
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Week 11 Injury Report, Updated Ranks, DK Own
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Week 11 Props

If you haven’t played at Prize Picks yet. Now’s the time to change that. Get a deposit match up to $100 (So, deposit $100, and get a FREE $100) by using code “MMN”.

PLAY AT PRIZE PICKS USING CODE “MMN”

Plus, if you sign up before Sunday kickoff you get to take advantage of the MMN Props BONUS. Make a 5-pick entry (NO MNF PLAYERS) for $7.11. That amount qualifies it for the MMN Props Contest. If you go 5/5 you get paid 10x for winning AND get a $50 bonus because you played an entry of $7.11. Seems like a good way to get 17x your money for a low investment.

Come square off against me in the MMN Props pool, here are two of the picks I’m going with…

On the pure prop front, only one really stands out to me above the rest. Of course, I’ll end up playing a bunch by kickoff, but I’ve had my eye on Jon Bates since the news came out both Logan Thomas and Ricky Seals-Jones are both OUT against Carolina. No books (as of this writing) have posted a reception total, which is preferable to me. But I’m guessing they will by kickoff. My guess, they set his reception prop at 1.5 or 2. I’m heavy over on both of those. If they don’t end up emerging, I’ll side with the over 15.5 yards from DK Sportsbook

Other than that, Tua anytime rushing TD at +240 looks nice too. I like their rushing yardage props as well, but they’re a much better price at Prize Picks than any Sportsbook. It doesn’t seem like much but Rodgers Prize Picks rushing total is 3.5 (5.5 at DK) and Tua’s is 6.5 (9.5 at DK). Expect both those to make my 7/11 entry as well.

Take Advantage.

PLAY AT PRIZE PICKS USING CODE “MMN”

Week 11 Rankings

BYE WEEKS: LAR, DEN

Last Updated: Post Inactives

WATCH: WEEK 11 INJURY & RANKS BREAKDOWN

Rankings Lists

RB https://bit.ly/21W11RB
WR https://bit.ly/21W11WRs
QB https://bit.ly/21W11QBs
TE/DST https://bit.ly/21W11TEDST

Week 11 Injuries

Last Updated: Post Inactives

Running Back

  • Elijah Mitchell (Finger) Likely OUT

  • JaMycal Hasty (Ankle) Likely OUT

  • Aaron Jones (knee) OUT; Expected to miss multiple weeks

  • Alvin Kamara OUT

  • Jeremy McNichols (Concussion) OUT

  • Jermar Jefferson (knee, ankle) OUT

  • Kareem Hunt (Calf) OUT

  • Chris Carson (Neck) OUT FOR SEASON

  • James Robinson (Knee/Heel) IN

  • Nick Chubb (COVID) IN

  • Saquon Barkley (ankle) Likely IN

  • Alex Collins (groin) Likely IN

  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire Likely IN

  • Latavius Murray (ankle) IN

  • Tony Jones (ankle) Expected to be Activated from IR and Play

  • Jamaal Williams (thigh) IN

  • Miles Sanders (ankle) IN

  • Devontae Booker (Hip) QUESTIONABLE

  • Chase Edmonds (Ankle) ON IR

  • Cordarrelle Patterson (ankle) Missed Week 11

Wide Receiver

  • Marquise Brown (Thigh) OUT

  • Amari Cooper (COVID LIST) OUT

  • Anthony Schwartz (concussion) OUT

  • DeAndre Hopkins (Hamstring) OUT

  • Curtis Samuel (groin) Likely OUT

  • Will Fuller (finger) OUT

  • Antonio Brown (ankle) OUT

  • Allen Robinson (hamstring) OUT

  • Allen Lazard OUT

  • Sterling Shepard (hamstring) OUT

  • Calvin Ridley (personal) OUT At Least 1 More Week

  • CeeDee Lamb (Arm) Likely IN

  • Chase Claypool (toe) Likely IN

  • Donovan Peoples-Jones (core) OUT

Quarterback

  • Lamar Jackson (illness) OUT

  • Jared Goff (oblique) Likely OUT

  • Taysom Hill (foot) QUESTIONABLE

  • Colt McCoy (Pec) QUESTIONABLE

  • Baker Mayfield (Knee) IN

  • Ben Roethlisberger (COVID LIST) IN

  • Kyler Murray (ankle) Game Time Decision

  • Sam Darnold (Shoulder) OUT

  • Zach Wilson (knee) QUESTIONABLE

Tight End

  • Geoff Swaim (concussion) OUT

  • Ricky Seals-Jones (Hip) OUT

  • Logan Thomas (Hamstring) OUT

  • Dallas Goedert (Head) IN

  • Rob Gronkowski (Ribs) Likely IN

WEEK 11 PLAYER NOTES

Joe Burrow and Derek Carr play each other this week and neither is priced as a top-8 QB on the main slate. Both average over 30 passes per game. This season, in games with an over/under of 50+ and a spread under 7, 69.2% of QBs that have thrown over 30 passes have passed for multiple scores. On average, those QBs with multiple TD passes in those spots have averaged 304 passing yards per game. Neither is going to be popular enough and both come with very viable stacking/bring back options: discussed it on the Thursday show with Ryan Hodge.

PLAY: Week 11 RAKE FREE PME DraftKings Contest

The Raiders are the best defense in terms of completion percentage on deep passes, theoretically a scheme thing as they blitz less often than anyone. To that end: Ja’Marr Chase (13.6 aDOT), Tee Higgins (10.5 aDOT) and Tyler Boyd (7.4 aDOT).

Twice this season has a defense allowed 8 yards per play while their offense actually outgained the opposition: the Ravens in Week 2 against the Chiefs and the Ravens in Week 5 against the Colts. Point being … “Ravens” doesn’t mean what it used to and David Montgomery is priced as if it does.

The Lions allow the 4th highest sack rate when NOT blitzed and the Browns have the 4th highest sack rate when they DON’T blitz. Either the Browns get home OR the Lions overachieve, block above their expectation and we have 40 pass attempts from Jared Goff in a scoreboard chasing spot. Either way, the Browns D/ST is my favorite to break the slate and they aren’t priced that way.

WEEK 11 BETS

Good news, the Saints and Wahsington numbers have both gotten better since we filmed the show!

WATCH: WEEK 11 BEST BETS

WATCH: Week 11 Picks vs The Spread

WEEK 11 GALAXY BRAIN: Logistics behind loading up on Chiefs/Cowboys

Is this a full slate with 12 games on it? Yes. Is the Monday quality of your bank account going to hinge on how you work around one of those games? Also, yes. That Chiefs/Cowboys game is going to dictate tournament success this weekend: did it bust all together, did everyone pay off, was there a single cheap play to broke the slate, was the chalk good … yadda yadda yadda. I’m here to help you build a lineup around getting full exposure (four players) to that game.

WATCH: Week 11 DRAFTKINGS PICKS

David Montgomery vs BAL: 30th. That’s where the Ravens rank in yards per play allowed this season and the Bears had the entire bye week to optimize their attack. They made it clear that Montgomery is “the guy” after featuring him in his return to action in Week 9 and given that my numbers label this game as more of a coin toss than Vegas is suggesting, getting him priced outside the top-15 at the position is a steal. Nothing about “vs BAL” is going to entice the public, the non-newsletter subscribers, but you’re better than that!

AJ Dillon at MIN: Could he be popular? Why yes, he will be. But we need a unique build, not nine unique players. Jeff Wilson, Mark Ingram, James Conner and Antonio Gibson figure to generate some ownership, so I don’t think the Dillon number gets out of hand. The Vikings rank 25th or worse in … red zone defense, yardage allowed before contact to RBs per carry and overall success rate against the run. Included in those numbers is a game against the McCaffrey-less Panthers, the Lions that gave Jamaal Williams more carries than D’Andre Swift and a Ravens team that clearly believes running backs don’t matter. QUADzilla profiles as a nice per dollar player and if you dig way too deep into this stuff, it gets better. In Weeks 1-7, the Vikes blitzed 26.6% of the time. Over the past three weeks, that number is up to 39%. I don’t normally site blitz numbers in a pro RB argument, but did you know that, since 2018, GB RBs rank 4th in yards per carry before contact against loaded boxes? Of course you didn’t, how would you? Point being that Aaron Rodgers has the ability to identify defensive schemes and put his guys in a spot to succeed. 20 touches for Dillon is a fine expectation and if we get that, I think he has no problem paying off this price tag.

Cole Beasley vs IND: Covered in the Tuesday’s post. Make sure to go check that one out!

Dan Arnold vs SF: He has as good a shot as anyone to lead the second tier of TEs in points this week and he’s simply not priced in that fashion. Over his past five games, he’s pacing toward an 85-1,000 season and how many TEs definitively rank higher than him in terms of hierarchy to his team’s success through the air? You want the list of TEs since Week 5 with more targets outside the numbers than Arnold? I just gave it to you. There isn’t one and that’s noteworthy considering that the 49ers allow opponents to be on-target with 84.2% of those passes, the highest rate on this slate. Liked him when pricing first came out and have liked him more throughout the research process.

NYJ D/ST vs MIA:  Are the Jets good? Of course not. But they blitz at a top-10 rate (3rd highest since Week 5) and that creates opportunity. You know what else does? Allowing pressure when NOT blitzed and the Dolphins are bottom-10 in that this season. It may not be pretty, but it fits this build and I think they are as playable as any sub-$3,000 D/ST this week.

*Remember to flex a late start guy for optimal late swap options

WEEK 11 DRAFTKINGS OWNERSHIP

NFL TOOLS: OPTIMIZER, PROJECTIONS, LINEUP GENERATOR

Chalk Report

RB

  • AJ Dillon

  • Christian McCaffrey

  • Jeff Wilson

  • Mark Ingram

WR

  • CeeDee Lamb

  • Tyreek Hill

  • Tee Higgins

  • Michael Gallup

TE

  • Travis Kelce

  • Cole Kmet

  • Dan Arnold

QB

  • Patrick Mahomes

  • Dak Presscott

  • Lamar Jackson

DST

  • Browns

  • Ravens

  • Panthers

STACKS

  • KC/DAL Game Stack

  • Bills Offense

  • CIN/LV Game Stack

— PM

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