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Week 11 Picks, Ranks, Injuries, Player Notes
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Week 11 Picks, Ranks, Injuries, Player Notes

+ Spread Link & Golf Notes

Mayo Media
Nov 17, 2021
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Week 11 Picks, Ranks, Injuries, Player Notes
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Week 11 Rankings

BYE WEEKS: LAR, DEN

Last Updated: Saturday
Next Update: Saturday Newsletter

Rankings Lists

RB https://bit.ly/21W11RB
WR https://bit.ly/21W11WRs
QB https://bit.ly/21W11QBs
TE/DST https://bit.ly/21W11TEDST

WATCH: WEEK 11 RANKINGS BREAKDOWN

Week 11 Injuries

Last Updated: Saturday
Next Update: Saturday Newsletter

Running Back

  • Elijah Mitchell (Finger) Likely OUT

  • JaMycal Hasty (Ankle) Likely OUT

  • Aaron Jones (knee) OUT; Expected to miss multiple weeks

  • Alvin Kamara OUT

  • Jeremy McNichols (Concussion) OUT

  • Jermar Jefferson (knee, ankle) OUT

  • Kareem Hunt (Calf) OUT

  • Chris Carson (Neck) OUT FOR SEASON

  • James Robinson (Knee/Heel) Likely IN

  • Nick Chubb (COVID) IN

  • Saquon Barkley (ankle) Likely IN

  • Alex Collins (groin) Likely IN

  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire Likely IN

  • Latavius Murray (ankle) Likely IN

  • Tony Jones (ankle) Expected to be Activated from IR and Play

  • Jamaal Williams (thigh) QUESTIONABLE

  • Miles Sanders (ankle) QUESTIONABLE

  • Devontae Booker (Hip) QUESTIONABLE

  • Chase Edmonds (Ankle) ON IR

  • Cordarrelle Patterson (ankle) Missed Week 11

Wide Receiver

  • Amari Cooper (COVID LIST) OUT

  • Anthony Schwartz (concussion) OUT

  • DeAndre Hopkins (Hamstring) OUT

  • Curtis Samuel (groin) Likely OUT

  • Will Fuller (finger) OUT

  • Allen Robinson (hamstring) Likely OUT

  • Allen Lazard Likely OUT

  • Calvin Ridley (personal) OUT At Least 1 More Week

  • CeeDee Lamb (Arm) Likely IN

  • Chase Claypool (toe) Likely IN

  • Donovan Peoples-Jones (core) QUESTIONABLE

  • Antonio Brown (ankle) QUESTIONABLE

  • Sterling Shepard (hamstring) QUESTIONABLE

Quarterback

  • Jared Goff (oblique) Likely OUT

  • Taysom Hill (foot) QUESTIONABLE

  • Colt McCoy (Pec) QUESTIONABLE

  • Baker Mayfield (Knee) Likely IN

  • Ben Roethlisberger (COVID LIST) Likely IN

  • Kyler Murray (ankle) Game Time Decision

  • Sam Darnold (Shoulder) OUT

  • Zach Wilson (knee) QUESTIONABLE

Tight End

  • Geoff Swaim (concussion) OUT

  • Ricky Seals-Jones (Hip) OUT

  • Logan Thomas (Hamstring) OUT

  • Dallas Goedert (Head) IN

  • Rob Gronkowski (Ribs) Likely IN

WEEK 11 PLAYER NOTES

Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals (at Raiders)

Chase leads the league in both receptions (6) and DK fantasy points (64.1) on pass plays gaining 40+ yards this season. And that’s great. Until it’s not. Coming off the bye, he faces a Raiders defense that ranks 1st in opponent deep CMP%, 1st in opponent yards per deep attempt and 8th in opponent deep TD rate. This season, 47% of Chase’s points have come via the deep pass. For what it’s worth, Vegas allows the 8th highest opponent passer rating when throwing to the slot. I’m with you in liking Cincy this week, but the production might come from different places than the field will assume. Tweet me if you want this topic to be the weekend GALAXY BRAIN topic and we might offer up a deeper dive.

The flip side of the Chase coin 

Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49ers (at Jaguars)

Everyone was gushing over him heading into Monday night: 3 catches for 26 yards. Yuck. The narrative is likely to swing in the opposite direction and that could resulting in a buying window. Since the beginning of last season, Deebo Samuel’s aDOT drops by nearly 30% when Aiyuk is on the field. Why’s that matter? The Jags’ defense ranks 27th or worse in … deep CMP%, yards per deep attempt and deep completions per game. Aiyuk’s aDOT is stable as to where it was during his breakout rookie season and if there’s a receiver on this team position to take advantage of a major weakness, it could well be Aiyuk ($5,000, priced below Marquez Callaway, Jarvis Landry and even with Kalif Raymond).

Chasing the deep ball

Michael Gallup, Dallas Cowboys (at Chiefs)

I don’t think I’m breaking news here, but the Chiefs can be had down the field. They allow the 3rd most yards per deep pass attempt and THE most yards per deep completion. When they get burned for a big play, it greatly impacts the slate and if the same player does it twice in a game … slate breaker. Despite running a route on under 63% of Dak Prescott’s drop backs last week, Gallup racked up a 33% share of the air yards. Interesting. Since the beginning of last season, Amari Cooper’s aDOT drop by 32% when Gallup is on the field compared to when he is off it. 

Completing the zero-WR DFS masterpiece for Week 11

Cole Beasley, Buffalo Bills (vs. Colts)

The Colts allows the 7th most yards per slot pass this season and THE BEASE happens to be responsible for 52.4% of Buffalo slot receptions this season. There is more ceiling there with Beasley than most slot receivers (3 games with over 20 DK points this season) and with the Bills touchdown favorites, he could be in for a nice return on your $4,800 investment.

What could all of that nonsense put into a single lineup look like?

RSM CLASSIC

WATCH: RSM CLASSIC DRAFTKINGS PICKS & BETS

Adam Scott

Far too high class of a player to be seeing these long odds in this weak a field. Had a win all but locked up at Sedgefield (a comp course) in August before a few short misses had him in a tie for second. Has also won at short, Bermuda PGA National and Sawgrass as well. It’s a gamble on the long term talent over most recent form.

Aaron Rai

Fresh off back to back Top 20s at distinctly diffident courses, the Brit was electric with he ball striking a week ago in Houston but just couldn’t get his short game working. The putter has always been an issues, but even when looking overseas, Rai’s best performances have come at shorter potentially gusty tracks. 

Scott Piercy

Last week’s approach leader would prefer conditions get has windy as possible for the entire tournament. All of this is going to hinge on his putter, which is rarely a good bet, but like some others on TOUR, overall Piercy is horrendous on the greens, yet has spike weeks every few months. In his past 15 starts, he’s dropped strokes putting to the field in 12 of them. In the three where he gained, it was an average of +3.8 SG: PUTT. That’s enough to win if he can pair with a quality irons week. ANDDDDDD, there’s been 8 events this season, he’s played in 5 of them, and he has 4 career wins. 8+5+4= 17. 17 = Q. It’s his week. Seems too obvious tbh.

WIND: Looks Dicey Friday and Saturday right now

Remember, the field splits between courses this week before migrating to the Seaside Course for both weekend rounds. With the wind picking up Friday, I’ve played over 80% of my DraftKings Lineups as course stacks in an attempt to get lucky that one course will play far easier (or just less difficult) in 25mph winds for round two.

I rarely play showdown, however events with multiple courses tend to be a bit easier. From my experience, at least. Historically, as a Par 72 vs a Par 70, the Plantation Course with its extra two Par 5s has been more generous for DraftKings scoring. So I just used guys from there on Thursday. No FRLs as the main books I play on didn’t offer any this week.

Here are the Tee Times and Splits if you are looking for them. Plus, using the Fantasy National lineup generator makes life very easy for this. LINEUP LOCK isn’t until 9:30am ET either, so you can wake and bake and still get them in.

USE: Fantasy National Tools (20% OFF)

WATCH: EURO TOUR PICKS

WEEK 11 PICKS

While you’re here, I’d like to encourage you to help us out by leaving a rating and review on either Apple Podcasts or Spotify for the Pat Mayo Experience. It'‘s very helpful this time of year. And, of course, to sub to this newsletter!

WATCH: WEEK 11 SPREAD PICKS + CUST CORNER

Week 11 Picks Cheatsheet

— PM

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