Week 11 Picks, Ranks, Injuries, Player Notes
+ Spread Link & Golf Notes
Week 11 Rankings
BYE WEEKS: LAR, DEN
Last Updated: Saturday
Next Update: Saturday Newsletter
Week 11 Injuries
Last Updated: Saturday
Next Update: Saturday Newsletter
Elijah Mitchell (Finger) Likely OUT
JaMycal Hasty (Ankle) Likely OUT
Aaron Jones (knee) OUT; Expected to miss multiple weeks
Alvin Kamara OUT
Jeremy McNichols (Concussion) OUT
Jermar Jefferson (knee, ankle) OUT
Kareem Hunt (Calf) OUT
Chris Carson (Neck) OUT FOR SEASON
James Robinson (Knee/Heel) Likely IN
Nick Chubb (COVID) IN
Saquon Barkley (ankle) Likely IN
Alex Collins (groin) Likely IN
Clyde Edwards-Helaire Likely IN
Latavius Murray (ankle) Likely IN
Tony Jones (ankle) Expected to be Activated from IR and Play
Jamaal Williams (thigh) QUESTIONABLE
Miles Sanders (ankle) QUESTIONABLE
Devontae Booker (Hip) QUESTIONABLE
Chase Edmonds (Ankle) ON IR
Cordarrelle Patterson (ankle) Missed Week 11
Amari Cooper (COVID LIST) OUT
Anthony Schwartz (concussion) OUT
DeAndre Hopkins (Hamstring) OUT
Curtis Samuel (groin) Likely OUT
Will Fuller (finger) OUT
Allen Robinson (hamstring) Likely OUT
Allen Lazard Likely OUT
Calvin Ridley (personal) OUT At Least 1 More Week
CeeDee Lamb (Arm) Likely IN
Chase Claypool (toe) Likely IN
Donovan Peoples-Jones (core) QUESTIONABLE
Antonio Brown (ankle) QUESTIONABLE
Sterling Shepard (hamstring) QUESTIONABLE
Jared Goff (oblique) Likely OUT
Taysom Hill (foot) QUESTIONABLE
Colt McCoy (Pec) QUESTIONABLE
Baker Mayfield (Knee) Likely IN
Ben Roethlisberger (COVID LIST) Likely IN
Kyler Murray (ankle) Game Time Decision
Sam Darnold (Shoulder) OUT
Zach Wilson (knee) QUESTIONABLE
Geoff Swaim (concussion) OUT
Ricky Seals-Jones (Hip) OUT
Logan Thomas (Hamstring) OUT
Dallas Goedert (Head) IN
Rob Gronkowski (Ribs) Likely IN
WEEK 11 PLAYER NOTES
Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals (at Raiders)
Chase leads the league in both receptions (6) and DK fantasy points (64.1) on pass plays gaining 40+ yards this season. And that’s great. Until it’s not. Coming off the bye, he faces a Raiders defense that ranks 1st in opponent deep CMP%, 1st in opponent yards per deep attempt and 8th in opponent deep TD rate. This season, 47% of Chase’s points have come via the deep pass. For what it’s worth, Vegas allows the 8th highest opponent passer rating when throwing to the slot. I’m with you in liking Cincy this week, but the production might come from different places than the field will assume. Tweet me if you want this topic to be the weekend GALAXY BRAIN topic and we might offer up a deeper dive.
The flip side of the Chase coin
Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49ers (at Jaguars)
Everyone was gushing over him heading into Monday night: 3 catches for 26 yards. Yuck. The narrative is likely to swing in the opposite direction and that could resulting in a buying window. Since the beginning of last season, Deebo Samuel’s aDOT drops by nearly 30% when Aiyuk is on the field. Why’s that matter? The Jags’ defense ranks 27th or worse in … deep CMP%, yards per deep attempt and deep completions per game. Aiyuk’s aDOT is stable as to where it was during his breakout rookie season and if there’s a receiver on this team position to take advantage of a major weakness, it could well be Aiyuk ($5,000, priced below Marquez Callaway, Jarvis Landry and even with Kalif Raymond).
Chasing the deep ball
Michael Gallup, Dallas Cowboys (at Chiefs)
I don’t think I’m breaking news here, but the Chiefs can be had down the field. They allow the 3rd most yards per deep pass attempt and THE most yards per deep completion. When they get burned for a big play, it greatly impacts the slate and if the same player does it twice in a game … slate breaker. Despite running a route on under 63% of Dak Prescott’s drop backs last week, Gallup racked up a 33% share of the air yards. Interesting. Since the beginning of last season, Amari Cooper’s aDOT drop by 32% when Gallup is on the field compared to when he is off it.
Completing the zero-WR DFS masterpiece for Week 11
Cole Beasley, Buffalo Bills (vs. Colts)
The Colts allows the 7th most yards per slot pass this season and THE BEASE happens to be responsible for 52.4% of Buffalo slot receptions this season. There is more ceiling there with Beasley than most slot receivers (3 games with over 20 DK points this season) and with the Bills touchdown favorites, he could be in for a nice return on your $4,800 investment.
What could all of that nonsense put into a single lineup look like?
Far too high class of a player to be seeing these long odds in this weak a field. Had a win all but locked up at Sedgefield (a comp course) in August before a few short misses had him in a tie for second. Has also won at short, Bermuda PGA National and Sawgrass as well. It’s a gamble on the long term talent over most recent form.
Fresh off back to back Top 20s at distinctly diffident courses, the Brit was electric with he ball striking a week ago in Houston but just couldn’t get his short game working. The putter has always been an issues, but even when looking overseas, Rai’s best performances have come at shorter potentially gusty tracks.
Last week’s approach leader would prefer conditions get has windy as possible for the entire tournament. All of this is going to hinge on his putter, which is rarely a good bet, but like some others on TOUR, overall Piercy is horrendous on the greens, yet has spike weeks every few months. In his past 15 starts, he’s dropped strokes putting to the field in 12 of them. In the three where he gained, it was an average of +3.8 SG: PUTT. That’s enough to win if he can pair with a quality irons week. ANDDDDDD, there’s been 8 events this season, he’s played in 5 of them, and he has 4 career wins. 8+5+4= 17. 17 = Q. It’s his week. Seems too obvious tbh.
Remember, the field splits between courses this week before migrating to the Seaside Course for both weekend rounds. With the wind picking up Friday, I’ve played over 80% of my DraftKings Lineups as course stacks in an attempt to get lucky that one course will play far easier (or just less difficult) in 25mph winds for round two.
I rarely play showdown, however events with multiple courses tend to be a bit easier. From my experience, at least. Historically, as a Par 72 vs a Par 70, the Plantation Course with its extra two Par 5s has been more generous for DraftKings scoring. So I just used guys from there on Thursday. No FRLs as the main books I play on didn’t offer any this week.
Here are the Tee Times and Splits if you are looking for them. Plus, using the Fantasy National lineup generator makes life very easy for this. LINEUP LOCK isn’t until 9:30am ET either, so you can wake and bake and still get them in.
WEEK 11 PICKS
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Week 11 Picks Cheatsheet