WEEK 10 RANKINGS
Last Update: Thursday Night
Next Update: Saturday Newsletter
WATCH: Week 10 RANKINGS DEBATE
RB bit.ly/21W10RBs
WR bit.ly/21W10WRs
QB bit.ly/21W10QBs
TE/DST bit.ly/21W10TEDST
You can get the list of the REST OF THE SEASON Rankings Here. I also quite enjoyed the show I did with Meanly on it. Very rarely do my shows contain actual actionable information. This one has it.
WATCH: REST OF THE SEASON RANKS & TRADES
Week 10 Injury Report
Last Update: Thursday Night
Next Update: Saturday Newsletter
BYE WEEKS: CHI, CIN, NYG, HOU
Running Back
Latavius Murray (ankle) Likely OUT
Alvin Kamara QUESTIONABLE
Chris Carson (Neck) QUESTIONABLE
Nick Chubb (COVID) QUESTIONABLE
Devontae Booker (Hip) Exited Game; On Bye Week 10
Chase Edmonds (Ankle) OUT 4-6 Weeks
Zack Moss (Head) QUESTIONABLE
Rhamondre Stevenson (Head) QUESTIONABLE
Damien Harris (Head) QUESTIONABLE
James Robinson (Heel) Expected to Play Week 10
Saquon Barkley (ankle) Expected Back Week 11
Justin Jackson (Quad) QUESTIONABLE
Miles Sanders (ankle) On IR for one more Week
Tevin Coleman (hamstring) QUESTIONABLE
Wide Receiver
Will Fuller (finger) OUT for TNF
Preston Williams IN for TNF
Sammy Watkins (hamstring) Likely IN TNF
Odell Beckham Jr. SIGNED WITH LAR
Rondale Moore (concussion/neck) QUESTIONABLE
Chase Claypool Likely OUT for multiple weeks
Chris Godwin (Foot) QUESTIONABLE
Chase Claypool (toe) QUESTIONABLE
Allen Robinson (hamstring) On Bye
AJ Green (COVID LIST) Expected to Play Week 10
DeAndre Hopkins (Hamstring) QUESTIONABLE
Sterling Shepard (hamstring) Bye Week 10
Dante Pettis Bye Week 10
Calvin Ridley (personal) OUT at Least 2 More Weeks
Dyami Brown (knee) QUESTIONABLE
Antonio Brown (ankle) Unlikely to Play
Curtis Samuel (groin) Unlikely to Play
TY Hilton (Concussion) Likely To Play
Corey Davis (hip) QUESTIONABLE
Quarterback
Tua Tagovailoa (Finger) GTD TNF; WILL NOT START
Cam Newton Signed with CAR; Unsure on Week 10 Status
Trevor Lawrence (Ankle) QUESTIONABLE
Sam Darnold (Shoulder) Expected to Miss Multiple Weeks
Kyler Murray (ankle) QUESTIONABLE
Aaron Rodgers (COVID) QUESTIONABLE
Mike White (hand) Will Start vs BUF
Zach Wilson (knee) Likely OUT
Tight End
Rob Gronkowski (Ribs) Unlikely to Play Week 10
Albert Okwuegbunam (Hamstring) QUESTIONABLE
Logan Thomas (Hamstring) QUESTIONABLE
Dawson Knox (Hand) Expected to play Week 10
Jonnu Smith (Shoulder) QUESTIONABLE
Eric Ebron (hamstring) Expected Back Week 10
Noah Fant (COVID LIST) Likely To Play Week 10
Pharaoh Brown (thigh) ON BYE
Logan Thomas (hamstring) Expected Back Week 10
Dawson Knox (broken hand) Expected Back Week 10
Rob Gronkowski (Back) QUESTIONABLE
WEEK 10 GALAXY BRAIN: Building An Entire Roster
WATCH: Week 10 DraftKings Picks — MAIN SLATE
I usually use this space to highlight a certain path, tell a certain story. It’s usually an out-of-the-box thought that I pulled on, went deep into the numbers and emerged with a narrative that could have more upside that what those non-subscribers ever consider. Hopefully you’ve had some fun with them: some big hits and some monster misses, but always a unique view. For better or worse. As a thank you for making it through half the season, here is a lineup created by the overthinking it minds of MMN … with every step explained:
In each of his last 3 games on extended rest, Tom Brady has thrown at least 4 touchdown passes while averaging over 295 yards through the air. Chalky doesn’t mean wrong and in big contests, I actually prefer pocket passers to mobile guys, a it allows for a double stack and thus fewer- moving pieces.
NFL TOOLS: OPTIMIZER, PROJECTIONS, LINEUP GENERATOR
The Footballs blitz at the 5th highest rate this season and that can be intimidating. Until you remember you have the GOAT, off a bye, with a rising MVP case after a crazy Week 9. Brady ranks 5th in the NFL in points per blitzed pass attempt this season and has been 30.5% better in such spots than he was last season. When Brady is blitzed, Chris Godwin leads the Bucs in yards per target. Lock in the volume. In those blitz situations, 7 of Brady’s 9 TD passes have gone to a player standing at least 6’5” tall.Mike Evans is rarely on my radar due to the low floor, but this spot has me interested in the scoring upside.
If the Bucs are going up-and-down the field, I need a bring back to capitalize on the game flow. Terry McLaurin is a fine option, but a little pricy. I landed on Logan Thomas (assuming health), who I expect to come in a bit light in terms of ownership. He’s basically a receiver and with 6 targets OR a touchdown in each of his past 9 games, paying off his $4,000 price tag isn’t a major ask in a game where Washington might have to throw 40+ passes.
If some volume from a TE is good, more must be better, so give me Dan Arnold in an effort to create a unique build (two TEs is rarely popular, let alone at this point on the board). But he’s not just here for differentiation, he’s here because he’s valuable and I want to the freedom to spend on the RBs I like. All he has done since joining the Jags is lead them in targets, catches and receiving yards. He’s done so with a team-low aDOT and the Colts happen to allows the 4th most yards per short pass attempt. Like Thomas, there’s not break the slate upside, but there aren’t a ton of reasonable avenues for him to sink you.
My final WR slot goes to a guy that led his team in air yards last year and is playing the defense that allows the highest on-target rate when opponents throw deep. Not a tough story to sell there and I think Michael Gallup having the IR designation next to him probably keeps people off of him. Double check his stats as the week goes, but with Amari Cooper’s efficiency dipping as he’s attempt to fill the field stretching void left by Gallup, as long as he’s active, he has as great a ceiling as anyone in this price range.
WATCH: Week 10 DraftKings Picks & Research
I built this lineup from the pass catchers to the running backs, as I wanted to see just how much money I could save to chase some of the elite options. As it turns out, just enough! Dalvin Cook faces the league’s worst run defense in what everyone is expecting to be a nip-and-tuck game. The Bolts are the blitz heaviest defense since Week 4, a stretch in which Kirk Cousins is 17-for-47 for 100 yards and 0 TDs when feeling the pressure. Woof. If Cook is ever going to be used in a Derrick Henry like role, this is the spot. James Conner is likely going to be chalky and I’m OK with that. Among qualifiers, he’s been the most efficient red zone runner in the league and he’s now the unquestioned lead back against the 4th worst red zone defense. If he accounts for just half of Chase Edmonds’ touches in addition to his previous role, we are looking at 18+ touches with nothing short of elite scoring upside.
Defense is usually a “what can I afford” spot for me, but after digging into it (before building out the lineup), there were two that caught my eye: Bucs and Titans. In a vacuum and on a per dollar basis, I prefer the Bucs, but the $900 savings allowed to me to build the lineup I wanted … and they still come in as very underrated. The Titans are the 2nd best defense at creating pressure without blitzing and the Saints allow pressure at the 6th highest rate when not blitzed. It’s a simple thought, but not *everything* has to be super complicated!
SECRET LINK: Week 10 SPREAD PICKS & CUST CORNER
Get the secret link every week in the Tuesday Newsletter
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THANKS!!!!
BTW, we find out this episode that Cust is actually Rene from Storage Wars
WEEK 10 CHEATSHEET
GOLF!!!
HOUSTON OPEN
only two events left in the golf calendar year, so let’s PLAY THE HITS!!!! Check back Wednesday night as I may update this for more bets and FRLs. Or not. I haven’t decided yet.
WATCH: Houston Open DraftKings Picks & Bets
Brooks — Forget all that business about him helping redesign the course, that matters not. What matters is that you’re getting the best player in the field at 30/1. Sure, he’s been playing like trash, but this is really no difference than his horrendous play before winning in Phoenix in February. And, in the outright betting market, there’s no difference between second place and a missed cut. Go with the guy who churns out those firsts at the highest rate in the field. And if I’m going with the talent of Brooks, I certainly can’t leave Reed off the list.
Willett — The king of mixed results, Willett has started to play much more consistent golf the last two months and even won the Euro (Now WORLD TOUR) Alfred Dunhill Links event a month ago. A terrific scrambler, Willett tends to play better in more difficult conditions, and a Par 70 playing over 7400 yard will afford him that luxury.
Grace — Thew more difficult and gusty the conditions, the better for Grace. While the ball striking is never consistent, he’s seen spike weeks with his irons while the short game is always reliable.
Use Fantasy National for ownership projections, stats, modelling and the lineup generator.
ICYMI: Grillo & Ortiz have already WD’d
TNF FREE MONEY!!!!
If you haven’t played at Prize Picks yet. Fuck’s wrong with you? Get a deposit match up to $100 (So, deposit $100, and get a FREE $100), then use code “MMNNFL” and get another FREE $25 if you play a TNF entry and this happens…
You don’t even need to use Lamar in your entry. Either you play or you hate money. Your choice.
Here’s my entry. (NOTE: Success has been achieved by doing the exact opposite)
PLAY AT PRIZE PICKS USING CODE “MMNNFL”
WATCH: BAL at MIA DraftKings Picks
— PM