Valspar Bets, DFS Ownerhsip, Weather & NEW PME Listener League
+ Bracket, NFL Show, Custys Debate, New MLB Show
NEW LISTENER’S LEAGUE
The Pat Mayo Experience listeners league you are used to is obviously no longer on DraftKings. It has migrated over to Underdog Fantasy and is up right now and it starts, obviously, when the tournament starts Thursday.
It’s only a one-round tournament for now, though. What we need to do is fill these ones up as quickly as possible for the Valspar for Houston for Valero for the Thursday. Only filling these quickly contest that will show Underdog that there’s a lot of interest and what we really to push it up a level is a full tournament contest.
The NEW PME CLASSIC is rake free, $20 per entry. We need all of you to get over there and fill it. It’s around 65% full right now, so if you haven’t signed up for Underdog yet, now is the time to go do that. Although some states don’t have Underdog pick’em available like Florida or Pennsylvania, you are allowed to do drafts in those states so it’s even more incentive to go in there and join the Pat Mayo Experience Classic.
Use code “MAYO” at underdog for a deposit match up to $100
Please go do that now as it helps out the contest and helps out all of you. Clearly, it helps me out all at the same time, because not only will they make these contests bigger and more in the vein of what we actually want, we get bigger rake free prize pools in an unfamiliar format for a lot of us at the same time too. Where the strategies aren’t implicitly known like when you’re playing against Tambo in a DK contest, and he knows what the fuck he’s doing. I might not know what I’m doing all of the time but he knows and a lot of people that played in the old DK tournament were super sharp, so it tough to beat them over the course of the season. This is a fresh look at how we can take advantage of some rake free money.
There’s already over $10,000 in the prize pool and this is just week one, but we want that number to grow and then you can come up with your own strategies as we progress and maybe knock off me and Tambo and everyone else who’s playing in it. To find the PME Classic, go to Underdog Fantasy under the “drafts” tab, under “PGA”, under Valspar.
LIVE CUSTY DEBATE
The Cust vs Fienberg Debate is LIVE Thursday evening at 8pm ET. Click this link to ensure you set a reminder for this one. It’s going to be nuts.
SET REMINDER NOW: The Custys Town Hall Debate LIVE
Thanks to everyone who subbmitted questions. Excited to see you there.
If you need MORE Cust (and Garion) in your life. We got Cust to react to the Jets signing Mike Williams and how he’s too scared to eat the things on Rahm’s Masters Menu
WATCH: Mike Williams Signs with New York Jets | Cust Hates Rahm’s Masters Menu
VALSPAR BETS
Brian Harman 29/1 — This feels like a Ricky Bobby situation. Either Harman keeps the momentum of the last few weeks going and rides to a win to close the Florida Swing or completely implodes and misses the cut by 5. I’ll bet one in 20 times it’s a win. I used my Bet365 30% boost to take his number up.
WATCH: VALSPAR FINAL BETS & ONE AND DONE
Sepp Straka 60/1 — Straka’s putting in 2024 has been abhorrent, losing a stroke and a half per start over his last six. However, the driving has been excellent, irons pretty good, and the chipping hot and cold. The bonus being, Straka kinda does this then puts it all together once. There’s enough pieces in place to see that happening again this week, at a course — difficult (lets hope) — that plays into his strengths.
Taylor Moore 80/1 (5 places)— In a year where it’s been Scheffler and randos hosting novelty checks (do they still do that?), the logic of betting Moore again for a repeat at an event which has seen each of its previous two winners repeat isn’t exactly flawed. And it’s not like he’s struggling either. Moore’s flipped his driver after struggles on the West coast, has gained on approach and around the greens in three of his last four. And based on what we saw Sunday last year, he can figure out these greens.
The Rest — We’re rolling the dice with potential crazy weather on a bunch of longshots.
READ: VALSPAR FULL PREVIEW & BREAKDOWN
NEW LEADERBOARD APP
Click on the banner at the Top of Fantasy National to get on the wait list. If you’re now a member, probably time to become one.
JOIN: 20% OFF Tools and Stats at FantasyNational.com
MARCH MADNESS BRACKET
As is tradition, I filled out my March Madness Bracket less than hour after release LIVE on the show. We’ve had a Top 1% bracket from this show two of the last three years, which means, we’re actually due for a down year if you believe in trends. Rasa and Morency walked me through their favorite picks, upsets, and futures as we filled out the Bracket.
WATCH: 2024 March Madness Bracket Picks
WEATHER
Like most weeks, I’m going to do an afternoon with a morning stack along with lineups that are the morning and afternoon stacks so I can play both sides. Ol’ both sidesing it Mayo over here. I’ve been doing this regularly and it’s a strategy that’s been working out well for me so far in 2024.
However if you’re trying to play the first round leader game or trying to get a headstart on Thursday, it does appear to be significantly warmer in the afternoon on Thursday as opposed to the morning, where it’s below 50° when these guys first get on the course. Those are not prime scoring conditions.
Moving to Friday, this is where it becomes interesting because you can almost play this any way you want, make up whatever narrative fits you best for what is going to happen. There is rain projected to arrive, at least while I’m looking at it currently, mid day on Friday starting around 11 AM and going all the way through the evening from when the players would be walking off the course. It’s worth noting the rain already on the forecast is down from where it was earlier on Wednesday morning, so writing this on a Wednesday evening, we see that there’s less rain in the forecast now. Maybe it all merely evaporates by the time we actually get to Friday because we know day-to-day weather, especially in Florida, can be really weird.
But the winds remain unchanged. They’re expected to remain high. That’s consistent from at least six days ago, so you’re looking at like an average of around 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30ish mph, and that’s before the rain comes in later in the afternoon. So the PM/AM guys could get screwed. You could be dealing with a situation where the PM golfers from Thursday get the absolute worst of it for Friday, then go to a rain delay and all the Thursday AM guys get to sit out Friday and return to a course with less wind and super soggy so they can aim some pins on Saturday to try to make the cut and score. It’s not like the pins are gonna be moving.
Now, if the rain moves up to around 8 AM these guys might not even get on the course all day and there’s no advantage and everyone misses the worst of all of it.
There are many different ways that you can spin this. Pick your poison. I always find these weeks incredibly interesting for weather. That’s why I prefer to stack both sides of the draw because whatever side you inevitably think has the massive advantage, turns out, usually gets flipped on its head and then we all lose all our money. This way at least we cover our bases with different combinations and different outs while we’re building DraftKings linueps.
MLB
I you’re looking for some Fantasy Baseball Previews for draft season or want a show to give you picks in season, John Lagazza is BACK on MMN doing videos and LIVE STREAMS where you can interact with him. His first MLB best ball stream and strategy video was dropped TODAY
WATCH: Underdog Fantasy Best Ball Live Draft + Strategy
DK OWNERSHIP
Although there’s been a lot of talk about the weather, what I had previously stated about people not really knowing how to interpret the weather and how to translate that into DraftKings lineups, is holding true as I scan the ownership projections. They really haven’t changed all that much from yesterday to today.
A few names that I would throw out immediately that might be a little bit higher than you think, based purely on the betting market, of what these players opened at versus their current odds to win the event. That’s usually an excellent barometer of players who will get more steam before lock.
Obviously, there’s always late steam on people that you really don’t think about, but just a look that someone like Sepp Straka, who opened at 65/1 and is now 35/1. His projection is gonna be around 10% percent may be a little bit more. I’m just guessing it comes in higher. Doug Ghim opened at 70, he’s now down at 45; popular. Brian Harman opened at 28/1 and got bet down to 20/1. Another who will come in over projection this week, at least in my opinion.
Xander opened at 9/1 he’s down to +75. So at the top end people really like Xander whereas Sam Burns hasn’t really moved all that much. Expect Burns to be incredible popualr, but around his projection. Now, this really depends on who correlates odds wise to DraftKings price. It’s not always a 1v1 in that sense but you can even see that Aaron Rai has been bet down this week. Adam Schenk has been bet down this week. Andrew Putnam has been bet down. Taylor Moore has been get down. Anticipate all of those players being a little bit more owned than projection sites have them.
Conversely, someone like Keith Mitchell has seen his odds rise. Adam Hadwin, Min Woo Lee and Jordan Spieth the same. It’s not that they’re gonna be completely unowned, but they’re gonna be much lower than the contemporaries in their price range, and they might even come in lower than the projected ownership would have you believe, Beau Hossler is another one. Eric Cole’s odds have just bottomed it out so don’t expect many people to click next to him.
WATCH: Valspar Championship DFS Picks, Lineups, Final Bets, Weather
This is all rule of thumb stuff. It’s not gonna work for every single player, obviously. But, I do think that on the whole, this has been very successful for trying to find the pockets of ownership will drift, and most importantly, where the pivot plays come in. Where the soft spots in the pricing.
Tambo and I talked about this on the show. We built both AM and PM only. lineups, and tried to do one with different pivots be Jordan Spieth or Min Woo or Patrick Rogers, and trying to figure out how to use the jigsaw puzzle pieces with those guys along with the popular names this week, so tune into that show, if you want to more in-depth explanation of what we’re talking about with some visual examples.
REST OF THE WEEK
NFL with JJ, LIVE Custys Debate, DOP IUFC Bets.
Rate, review, like, sub. DO all that fun stuff.
— PM