LIVE CUSTY DEBATE
The Cust vs Fienberg Debate is LIVE Thursday evening at 8pm ET. Click this link to ensure you set a reminder for this one. It’s going to be nuts.
SET REMINDER NOW: The Custys Town Hall Debate LIVE
And if you’ve ever wanted to be part of the show or merely had a question to ask Geoff or Cust, NOW IS YOUR CHANCE!!!!! We’ve set up a site where you can record a 20 second or less video for the debate which (if good enough) will be answered LIVE during the debate. You have until Wednesday morning to get the videos in.
SUBMIT CUSTY DEBATE QUESTION VIDEO HERE
MARCH MADNESS BRACKET
As is tradition, I filled out my March Madness Bracket less than hour after release LIVE on the show. We’ve had a Top 1% bracket from this show two of the last three years, which means, we’re actually due for a down year if you believe in trends. Rasa and Morency walked me through their favorite picks, upsets, and futures as we filled out the Bracket.
WATCH: 2024 March Madness Bracket Picks
VALSPAR Picks/Bets, One & Done + Players Championship Recap Show
Geoff and I got together to yak it up about how good the finish of the Players was (not to our pocketbooks) and a few things they could still change about an already improved broadcast from NBC. Then into the picks and bets for the week at Valspar.
WATCH: Valspar Championship Picks, Bets, One & Done + Players Championship Recap
2024 Valspar Championship
156 Players | Top 65 & Ties Make the Cut
First Tee: Thursday, March 21
Defending Champion: Taylor Moore
HISTORIC MOMENT ALERT!!!!!!
The Valspar is the site of one of DFS/Betting Golf Twitter’s most memorable moments. This is where the term going “Full Keegan” was coined. In 2016, Keegan jumped out to a scorching opening-round 67 to tie for the first-round lead with Charles Howell III and Ken Duke, only to combust in the second round, where a Friday 79 had him heading home for the weekend. While the term gets thrown around a lot when a player has a sizzling Thursday followed by pure implosion Friday, going from first-round leader to a missed cut is truly how you go “Full Keegan.”
Key Stats
Strokes Gained: Approach
Par 3s Gained: 200-225 Yards
Good Drives Gained
Strokes Gained: Short Game
Par 4s Gained: 400-450 Yards
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Course
Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead)
Yardage: 7,340
Par: 71
Greens: Poa trivialis overseed
Number of Sand Bunkers: 74
Number of Holes Water is in Play: 9
Par 3's (5): Average distance - 212 yards
-Three holes had a par rate of 70% and they were all Par 3's (Holes 4-15-17)
-Moore made four bogey and a double bogey during his win here last season ... three of the bogeys and the lone double came on Par 3's
Par 4's (9): Average distance - 439 yards
-The three toughest holes on the course were all Par 4's and #16 held a 5.7% double-or-worse rate (Moore played #16 at -1 for the week during his win)
-Hole #12 is the only Par 4 with more birdies than bogeys (Moore birdied it in each of the final three rounds last year)
Par 5's (4): Average distance - 583 yards
-It should be no surprise that these are the four easiest holes on the course, all holding a birdie rate north of 21%. Holes 1 and 14 have a higher eagle rate than double-or-worse
-Moore birded Hole 1 in three of four rounds and he did the same on Hole 14
VALSPAR PME OPEN
The PME Open will move to Underdog starting this week. It will be a Battle Royale Drafts for Thursday Only. It will be Thursday only until we can get the full event software figured out.
You’ll be able to find it in the Valspar Draft Lobby as soon as the Tee Times are announced. Since it’s a draft, even if you live in state which bans pick’em, drafts are usually good. (Hello, Pennsylvania). It’s important to fill this ASAP so it remains RAKE FREE and we can MAKE IT BIGGER. SO get an Underdog account NOW if you don’t have one already.
Use code “MAYO” at underdog for a deposit match up to $100
Until the tee times come out, keep firing away at the Major Season Albatross drafts. Poor fienberg got hooked on these while he was in Florida and now can’t do them in back in Toronto. He’s fiending. There’s $50K to first btw.
Past Winners
2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
2022 Sam Burns -17
2021 Sam Burns -17
2019 Paul Casey -8
2018 Paul Casey -10
2017 Adam Hadwin -14
2016 Charl Schwartzel -7
2015 Jordan Spieth -10
2023: Taylor Moore (-10, one clear of Adam Schenk)
-He shot matching 67's on Friday and Sunday, his Round 4 score being the second best on the course that day -- three better than each of the other top 5 finishers)
-13 of the top 15 finishers gained in ProxFG: 150-175
2022: Sam Burns (-17,playoff win over Davis Riley)
-His 64 on Thursday left him tied with three others as the FRL
-Three of the top four finishers on the final leaderboard were the three best SG:APP golfers for the week
2021: Sam Burns (-17, three clear of Keegan Bradley)
-His 63 on Friday matched the best round of the week. He entered Sunday tied with Bradley, but separated with a 68 (three birdies on his first seven holes)
-7 of the top 12 finishers lost distance off the tee (the top five finishers all gained fairways)
2019: Paul Casey (-8, one clear of Jason Kokrak and Louie Oosthuizen)
-His 66 on Friday was his best effort of the week and tied for the best on the course that day
-11 of the top 12 finishers gained around the green (Louie finished 2nd thanks to a field best +6.2 ARG, saving his -2.4 strokes in approach)
2018: Paul Casey (-10, one clear of Tiger Woods and Patrick Reed)
-He closed in style with a 65 (5 better than Woods and 3 better than Reed)
-Three of the top six in SG:ARG cashed top 5 paychecks for the week (six of the top seven finishers for the week picked up multiple strokes ARG)
2017: Adam Hadwin (-14, one clear of Patrick Cantlay)
His 64 on Friday was the round of the day and proved to be the difference (Cantlay: 66)
Finishes for the top 5 in approach this week: 11-1-2-14-5
2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7, playoff win over Bill Haas)
Was five back of Haas entering Sunday (shot a 67, his best round of the tournament and the best round on the course that day)
Eight of the top-10 finishers gained strokes putting in the 15-20’ range
2015: Jordan Spieth (-10, playoff win over Sean O’Hair and Patrick Reed)
Consistency won out: Spieth shot 67-70 every day (the two runner-ups had a 72 prior to the weekend that ended up making a big difference)
Notes
For adjusted par, even being a par 71, Copperhead plays longer than the scorecard since there are five par 3s complimenting the standard four Par 5s. Four of those Par 3s can measure more than 200 yards, and all four rank inside the nine most difficult holes on the course.
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Factor in the severe doglegs, the tree-lined fairways, 74 bunkers, nine holes with water hazards, and an average driving distance more than 12 yards shorter than the average course, and you have one of the PGA TOUR’s most difficult tracks. Oh, driving accuracy and greens in regulations hit are below PGA TOUR average, too. You’re looking for a player who can acutely manage each aspect of their game Tee-To-Green, and hope they don’t putt themselves out of the event.
Outside of the Par 5s, which even play more difficult than you think, the entire course is brutal, but the SNAKE PIT (hiss noise) is where the big blow-ups happen. And it’s far more noticeable since they’re the closing holes. And also because there’s an awesome statue signifying the lurking danger ahead …
Essentially, it’s the budget Bear Trap. It could use a good PR firm to enhance its image. Holes 16, 17 and 18 are among the most difficult three-hole stretches played annually on the PGA TOUR. No Valspar winner has ever played the Snake Pit at better than even par.
Historic Snake Pit Data
Hole 16: Par 4 | 475 Yards | +0.28 (Rank 1) | 8.5% Birdies; 24.1% Bogeys; 5.7% Doubles or Worse
Hole 17: Par 3 | 215 Yards | +0.11 (Rank 7) | 9.7% Birdies; 18.3% Bogeys; 1.1% Doubles or Worse
Hole 18: Par 4 | 445 Yards | +0.15 (Rank 6) | 11% Birdies; 22% Bogeys; 1.8% Doubles or Worse
I plead with you, DO NOT victory lap a winner until they tap in on 18. The potential for multi-shot swings over this final stretch almost seems inevitable, and may even create a decent live betting opportunity on a player already in the clubhouse.
The cutline had not been below par dating back to 2003, then 2022 came around. Conditions were a tad softer and the cut of Top 65 and ties came in at -2. That -2 looks like an outlier with the cut line shifting back upwards too +2
If it wasn’t tough enough (shout out Maven!), Copperhead has the second-most three-putts inside five feet of any course since 2011, trailing only Riviera. And it features the lowest birdie or better percentage of any course on the PGA TOUR. This would be an amazing U.S. Open course if it wasn’t in Florida. But having a U.S. Open at Copperhead in the middle of June would result in more players with heatstroke than finishing under par.
A true outlier, both Par 5 and Par 3 performance have had a more meaningful impact on the Top-5 finishers over the years than Par 4s. It’s one of the only courses on the PGA TOUR where Par 4s rate last between the three.
Strokes Gained: Approach has factored into the Top-5 finishers’ performance over 2.5 times more than Strokes Gained: Off The Tee, and 2.1 times more than Strokes Gained: Around The Green. Isolating only past victors at the Valspar, SG: APP has been 14 times more influential than SG: OTT. A staggering number.
Additionally, versus the average course on the PGA TOUR, Par 3s, Par 4s from 400-450 yards and approaches from 175-200 yards are more impactful at Copperhead than most venues.
DraftKings Notes
SHOWDOWN STREAK
This is a case where the numbers are a little deceptive at first glance. If you're looking at Fantasy National, you'll see that #18 is the sixth toughest hole on the course and likely turn to front-to-back as your Showdown target. But in terms of math, there's next to zero advantage.
The odds of going on a streak from 9-11 (0.57%) is a tick worse than doing so from 18-2 (0.58%), due to the first hole playing as the easiest on the course. We are splitting hairs ... I'm not making significant roster decisions based on starting hole, though if I had to pick, I'd want to start on 1 (easiest hole to open and a chance to find form before facing the most advantageous three-hole stretch on the course (Holes 10-12)
2023: Four of the five highest priced players finished inside the Top 10. The outlier was Matthew Fitzpatrick who missed the cut. Only two of the Top 8 DK scorers were priced below $8,000
2022: Chalky Sam Burns paid off at $9,600, but he was one of only three golfers priced $9,000 or higher that finished in the top-14 DK scorers for the week
2021: There was no wrong pricing structure this week. Of the 13 golfers who scored 80+ DK points … four carried a sub-$7,000 price tag, four were over $9,000 and three of the top-4 scorers for the week were $7,900-$8,400.
2019: Five of the top-9 in DK pricing missed the cut, three of the four that played the weekend were top-6 scorers on DK for the week.
2018: Three of the top-4 DK scorers cost at least $9,500, but that’s not to say punt plays didn’t cash … five of the top-9 DK scorers cost you $7,700 or less.
2017: The top-7 scorers in terms of DK points were all sub-$8,000 while six of the top-7 in pricing failed to score even 61 DK points.
BETS
While the sheer number of bets is staggering, I’ve actually donated a lot less overall money to the books so far than normal. It’s essentially, Brian Harman and a cast of Cronies:
Harman 25/1
Straka 60
McNealy 66/1 (+Top 5)
Taylor Moore 80/1 (+Top 5)
Adam Schenk 80/1 (+Top 5)
BOMBS
Matt Wallace 125/1 (+Top 5)
Andrew Novak 125/1 (+Top 5)
Matt NeSmith 150 (+Top 5)
Greyson Sigg 150/1 (+Top 5)
Adrien Dumont De Chassart 300/1 (+Top 5)
More color coming Wednesday.