US OPEN Trends, RD1 Props, Updated Models, Tee Times, Weather
The Tee times have dropped for Pinehurst which means the full slate of Fantasy Props on Underdog have been released. By the time I sent this out last week, the numbers had changed so I figured I’d put them out now and hopefully whoever wants to get in on mine (or get better numbers on their own) can do just that.
As I mentioned in Sunday’s post, 71% of the field hit the fairway at Pinehurst in 2014. Now, it’s not necessarily going to be the same in 2024, but it’s the best info we can go with. 10/14 fairways hit is 71%. 10/14 fairways hit on this entry, merely field average, is a winner for Round 1.
Additionally, if you haven’t signed up for Underdog using code MAYO yet, you can accomplish that with this link, along with tailing the entry and getting ballots to get in the Tambo 5% cut of his Fantasy Golf World Championship winnings. LETS GOOOOO
Tail this entry and get for a first time deposit bonus up to $250 on Underdog
And since Underdog is now offering up to 8-leg entries, I decided to try and shoot the moon
Tail this entry and get for a first time deposit bonus up to $250 on Underdog
TEE TIMES
Up to $50K Giveaway + MOREEE!!!!!!!!
We have a bunch of YUGE Giveaways starting TODAY for US Open week, including a chance to get in on 5% of Tambo’s winnings at the Fantasy Golf World Championship which could be up to $50K. He’ll be giving away 5% of his top entry in the finals if you enter the draw, so you should be rooting hard for him to advance this week at Memorial.
Here’s how you can get into the draw from the PME end, these also get you into the draw for $500 Cash and TWO FREE Fantasy National Yearly Memberships. Which I’m also giving away this week.
40 Ballots
Use code “MAYO” at underdog for a deposit bonus up to $250
10 Ballots Each
Subscribe, Rate and Review to the PME Audio Podcast:
Apple: http://bit.ly/PMEiTunes
Spotify: https://goo.gl/VboemH
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US OPEN CONTENT
All content up on MMN YouTube and PME Audio feeds.
READ: US Open Research, Pinehurst Preview
WATCH: US Open Golf Best Bets, Odds, Outright Winners | Over Under Scottie Scheffler Majors
WEATHER
Hot, dry, firm and fast.
WINDTOWER: Pinehurst
US OPEN WINNERS
2023: Wyndham Clark (-10)
2022: Matt Fitzpatrick (-6)
2021: Jon Rahm (-6)
2020: Bryson DeChambeau (-6)
2019: Gary Woodland (-13)
2018: Brooks Koepka (+1 ... Sinnecock Hills)
2017: Brooks Koepka (-16)
2014 (Pinehurst): Martin Kaymer (-9)
2005 (Pinehurst): Michael Campbell (E)
1999 (Pinehurst): Payne Stewart (-1)
WINNER FORM
2023: Wyndham Clark (-10)
Lead in event: 12th at Memorial (won Wells Fargo five weeks prior)
His previous US Open: MC in 2022
SG:App: Entering play, he had gained an average of 1 stroke in his 5 events prior
SG:P: Spiked with the putter at Wells Fargo, gained over 1.5 strokes in 5 of 6 measured events prior
2022: Matt Fitzpatrick (-6)
Lead in event: 10th at RBC Canada (5 top 15's in his 7 lead in events)
His previous US Open: 55th in 2021
SG:App: Gained in 11 straight measured events prior (but never more than +2.3)
SG:P: Gained 5+ strokes in 3 of 4 lead in events
2021: Jon Rahm (-6)
Lead in event: 8th at PGA
His previous US Open: 23rd in 2020
SG:App: Was -0.4 strokes in his three lead in events
SG:P: Gained in both lead in events (lost in 4 of 5 events prior
2020: Bryson DeChambeau (-6)
Lead in event: 22nd at TOUR Championship (despite losing 4.5 strokes putting)
His previous US Open: 35th in 2019
SG:App: Spiked out of nowhere (+7.5 at US Open after losing at least 1.8 strokes in 5 of his previous 6)
SG:P: All over the place (gained or lost over 4 strokes in 5 straight events prior -- gained in 3, lost in 2)
2019: Gary Woodland (-13)
Lead in event: 52nd at Memorial (better than 30th in just 1 of his 6 lead-in events)
His previous US Open: 36th in 2018
SG:P: Posted the 3rd best week of his career (+7.2) despite losing multiple strokes in 4 of previous 5 events
2018: Brooks Koepka (+1 ... Sinnecock Hills)
Lead in event: 37th at St. Jude (not top 30 in any of his 3 lead-in events)
His previous US Open: Won in 2017
SG:App: Bled strokes at St. Jude (-5) but was strong in his 4 events prior (total: +13.8)
SG:P: Showed potential at St. Jude (+3.8) after losing 4.6 strokes over his 2 events prior
2017: Brooks Koepka (-16)
Lead in event: 2nd at St. Jude (was 2nd at Byron Nelson, his event prior to St. Jude)
His previous US Open: 13th in 2016
SG:App: Was trending up ... +0.3 at THE PLAYERS, +2.5 at Byron Nelson, +5.1 at St. Jude
SG:P: Found the stroke ... gained in each of his 3 events prior (on the heels of losing in 3 of 4)
Recent Trends from US Opens
2023: The top 5 putters all cashed top 20 checks (3 of them finished T8 or better, including the winner in Wyndham Clark)
- Tom Kim was the only top 16 finisher to lose strokes OTT
- 11 of the top 13 finishers gained ground in ProxFG: 200+
- The top 2 finishers (Clark an McIlroy) were both within 3 strokes of the R1 lead
2022: Fitzpatrick was 2 strokes better than Scheffler on Thursday and that was enough (one stroke win)
- Matthew Fitzpatrick won despite losing 1.8 strokes on Par 3's (two other top 9 finishers lost ground on Par 3's)
- 10 of the top 11 finishers were within 4 strokes of the R1 lead
2021: DeChambeau shot 67 on Sunday (3 shots better than anyone else on the course)
- Each of the top 16 finishers gained ARG (14 of them picked up at least 1.5 strokes)
- The top 7 in driving distance all finished top 25 (4 inside the top 10)
- The top 5 finishers were all within 4 strokes of the R1 lead
UPDATED MODELS
Since I have the Memorial stats now, I figured I’d show off an updated version of both models from Sunday’s post.
JOIN: 20% OFF Tools and Stats at FantasyNational.com
Mixed Condition Model
US OPEN BETS
Brooks 25/1
Morikawa 27/1 (Using the Bet365 50% Boost)
Cam Smith 40 with 8 Places
Hideki Matsuyama 55/1 with 8 Places
Taylor Moore 250/1 with 8 Places
CUSTYS
The Custys are coming… SOOOONNNNN!!!!!! Here’s the sneak peek.
