US Open Research, Pinehurst Preview, Early Bets
Up to $50K + MORE Giveaways
Up to $50K Giveaway + MOREEE!!!!!!!!
We have a bunch of YUGE Giveaways starting TODAY for US Open week, including a chance to get in on 5% of Tambo’s winnings at the Fantasy Golf World Championship which could be up to $50K. He’ll be giving away 5% of his top entry in the finals if you enter the draw, so you should be rooting hard for him to advance this week at Memorial.
Here’s how you can get into the draw from the PME end, these also get you into the draw for $500 Cash and TWO FREE Fantasy National Yearly Memberships. Which I’m also giving away this week.
40 Ballots
Use code “MAYO” at underdog for a deposit bonus up to $250
10 Ballots Each
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2024 US OPEN
SHOWS
I went through the stats and course specific stats for the US Open (results below), but I also had Keith Stewart from Read the Line on the show and grilled him about how envisions the course playing this week. Keith was awesome.
WATCH: US Open Picks, Research, Pinehurst No. 2 Course Preview
Matt “LIV BOT” Vincenzi and I went player-by-player and talked through their chances at the US OPEN. Matt also said he’d cut his balls off if Wyndham Clark won. It was a good show.
WATCH: US Open Golf Picks, Bets — Player by Player Preview
Monday…
Course: Pinehurst No. 2
Par: 70
Yardage: 7,543
Greens: Champion ultradwarf bermuda
Number of Sand Bunkers: 117
Number of Holes Water is in Play: 1
Average Green Size: 6,500 sq. ft.
Course Notes
Average fairway widths in landing areas are between 35-45 yards.
In 2014 Pinehurst No. 2 became the first facility to host the U.S. Open and U.S. Women’s Open the same year (and in consecutive weeks).
This will mark the 1st U.S. Open played on Champion ultradwarf bermudagrass greens. Pinehurst No. 2 switched from bentgrass immediately after the 2014 events.
7,569 – Muirfield Village (Memorial)
7,558 – Quail Hollow (Wells Fargo)
7,545 – Augusta National (Masters)
7,543 – Pinehurst (U.S. Open)
DRIVING ACCURACY/UNDERDOG PROPS
If anyone followed along this week, you remember I attacked the fairway props in Round 1 as I felt they were too low. Turns out, I was correct, I just happened to pick the king of fairway bunkers, Xander, and got screwed. The rest of the week, players were 1.5 to 2 fairways higher on their over/under for fairways hit. A similar situation may occur when Underdog releases their opening fantasy props (fingers crossed).
While so much is going to be made about driving accuracy this week (which I concur btw), you read four sentences ago “Average fairway widths in landing areas are between 35-45 yards.” Over 70% of drives found the fairway during the 2014 US Open. It’s not overly challenging to hit the fairway at Pinehurst. It just happens to have devastating consequences if its missed.
I anticipate many of the opening fairway props to be in the 8.5/9.5 range. To clear 9.5 fairways at the US Open players need to drive the ball at a 71% clip. Better known as field average. Contrary to popular belief, I don’t actually have any insight to what those props will be listed at during the opening, but based on what we saw this week (similar numbers) I’d expect them to be slightly low the moment they drop.
So, you’ll want to have cash in your account when the happens so you don’t miss out. Code “MAYO”.
Use code “MAYO” at underdog for a deposit bonus up to $250
That code will get in the giveaway draws as well. DO IT!!!!
2014 US OPEN AT PINEHURST
Martin Kaymer dummied the field by eight strokes. Play like Kaymer that week and win.Simple strategy really If you only make one bogey in the first 36 holes when seven holes have a bogey or worse rate over 30%+ and good things will happen to your bank account. Banking on that happening to a single while (especially one you’ve bet on) isn’t the best idea. But what do you notice about some of those other names on the leaderboard?
There’s no conventional rough conventional Pinehurst. The moment you venture off the short grass the ball is in the waste area/wiregrass/whatever the hell it is. Much like how a slightly off line tee show at Sawgrass is wet. Obviously, water is more penal to the scorecard, but Sawgrass is shorter and easier to make birdies. There are trade offs with this. Anyway, here is every player in the field averaging over a stroke per round at Sawgrass since 2020:
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I understand this isn’t a 1v1 corollary. In fact, it’s likely quite anecdotal. However, I do there is something about Sawgrass and Pinehurst around the greens. The putting surfaces themselves bare no resemblance to one and another (except Pinehurst has switched to Champion ultradwarf bermuda putting surfaces which will run almost Identical to Sawgrass and Phoenix), but the strategy green side does. Kaymer famously putted from off the greens during his win in 2014. Something he used to greet effect at his PLAYERS win earlier that year as well.
That got me thinking: Where else can that be an option. Players don’t NEED to putt from off the green but (like Keith and I discussed), Pinehurst offers the field myriad options where creativity can come into play. Basically, which courses have a bunch of run off areas with minimal rough and elevated greens where keeping the ball low its a viable option. I came up with Sawgrass, Harbour Town, Colonial, and Memorial Park (Houston Open). Here are the Around The Green leaders from those tracks. If there are more courses you can think of, please lmk…
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Using these elements, and a lot more that I showcased in depth on the research show, I built out my Mixed Condition Model. Here’s what it looks like. You can always build your own with a Fantasy National member fyi
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The Rankings
Apparently this “Scheffler” character is quite good.
You see “PINEHUSRT RM” with in those rankings. That’s the one I build for the most recent rounds (the rankings will update Monday morning with all the Memorial stats)
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And yes, I chose to include the Top 26 becuase Si WOOOOO was No. 26.
EARLY BETS
Nothing could have been better for the betting odds than Scottie winning Memorial. Now we’re getting an extra 5 to 10 points on almost every golfer. Unless you wanted to bet Iron Scheff as he’s now +350. BLAH!!!!
BROOKS KOEPKA 30/1
Although it’s an unconventional US Open, Brooks at almost 30/1 has to be an auto fire at any US Open or PGA Championship, even when he’s in poor form. ANDDDDD, Brooks found his game over the three rounds at LIV Houston this week. He capped off Sunday with a -7 to get himself into the Top 10 for the week. Just because you didn’t know it happened, doesn’t mean it didn’t actually happen.
HIDEKI MATSUYAMA 55/1
Hideki had only played twice in the past two months: Masters and PGA Championship. He said he was going to play Wells Fargo but anyone who rostered him on DraftKings or took him in the One and Done know how that ended up. Hideki looked a lot closer to early season Hideki this week at Memorial, though. He got better almost every day, gaining in all four Major SG categories, while gaining on fairways vs the field and only slightly losing in distance. The worry is always his health and whether or not he’s trying to play through a hidden injury, but the numbers this week suggest he’s not. He that’s to be believed, Pinehurst is perfect for the 2020 PLAYERS Champion (Shout out CUST!).
2024 Memorial Strokes Gained Leaderboard
— PM