Spieth Flu Game?
No, I have no extra info on Spieth and him leaving the range. Reports sound like the flu or a cold. He’ll likely play, but you may want to stay up late (west coast) or get up early (East Coast) in case something breaks then. I kept him in my DK player pool (Around 15%), but nothing in single entry or 3-Max, just in case. I do think this news takes ownership away and goes almost directly to Xander.
Twitter is your best bet for this news. I’ll be up with plenty of time and will get thee info out there @ThePME. But if you can’t stand me, follow the PGA TOUR COMMS account, they’ll probably the first to know, whether they tell us, that’s to be seen.
Beware of parody account and people just trying to fuck with you just before lock. Verify the source before committing any money to anything.
US OPEN BETS
Time to GET THAT MONEY… says the sports books, likely. I’ve discussed Scheffler all week, waited for the boots but it never came. So I took the 17. There’s some merit to waiting until the AM guys get on the course, wait for Rahm or Rory or another name to get out to a good start and you can bet the PM Scheffler at potentially a better number. It’s a risk, since it’s the US Open and the best guys blow it and then the 17 is gone, so I took it.
WATCH: Final Bets & Weather Splits
I sprinkled the Top 30/40 MARKET with bombers I like from the bottom, hope to get luck. As I mentioned in yesterday’s post with The 8 places + the unlikely win versus a higher investment on the Top 10s and I’ll I give up is two places.
US OPEN CONTENT
US OPEN FInal Picks, DK Own, Weather, CHAT
US OPEN BETS AND CURSED
US OPEN DK PICKS with Tambo & Rasa
US OPEN RESEARCH SHOW
US OPEN PICKS AND COURSE PREVIEW
FIRST WAVE PLAYER PROFILES + STATS
US OPEN PLAYER BY PLAYER
US OPEN CUT SWEAT (Friday Night)
GALAXY BRAIN: Balance
US Open’s are typically tough when it comes to scoring, so don’t expect a repeat of last weeks shootout. Naturally, these difficult scoring conditions will more often than not reward the best golfers in the world, but if you load up at the top, you’re really going to be drawing thin as you finish off your lineup.
You can dig as deep as you want into the numbers/trends at Fantasynational, but for the sake of semi-simplicity, I’m going to highlight four important stats: fairways gained, driving distance, GIRs gained and SG: ARG. Think about it … correlation. I want accurate drivers and, for this model I’ve weighed heavier than distance (40% to 25%), but if they miss the fairway, I want them closer to the hole, so I’m sticking with my hybrid version of driving stats for this week. The same is true when it comes to irons: in a perfect world, they are hitting the greens in regulation (GIRs weighed at 23%, ARG weighed at 12%), but if they don’t, I want strong around the green play.
As mentioned, US Open courses are far from run-of-the-mill and I expect more of the same this week. To account for that, I’m evaluating this field in how they perform in difficult scoring conditions. Sample size is always a question in golf and that’s why we have the Rolling Report option at Fantasynational … why arbitrarily pick a sample size when you can have the recent and dated data all in front of you at once?
There are 15 golfers in this field that rank top-20 in this model structure over their past 12, 24 and 36 rounds in difficult scoring conditions. Many of the names won’t surprise you, but the middling names should prove helpful if you’re going with a balance build:
You can slice and dice this list however you’d like, but this method did return plenty of options at each of the top few pricing tiers. Here are a few ways to stat stack this list into a GPP lineup:
Birthday Cust Vibes? We have all three of his picks above and I don’t hate it. SAD! He did say my Rory double wouldn’t cash this week, so maybe remove the CUST guys and start things off with Rory …
It’s major week, so sometimes you have to be creative. Here’s a “Y Not?” lineup. The five names from the above player pool that have a last name that ends in a “y” and, for good measure, a last name that sounds like it has a “y” in it to fill things out.
Best of luck to all this week … should be a fun one!
TAMBO’S TIDBITS
Tambo rounded up the best from the web this week for the US Open
Geoff’s Bets
I only include it because he did the video looking like he was sitting ringside and got lucky with Bret Hart in 1994
UFC BETS
I produced this show and immediately went and bet Joe Lauzon at +140.
WATCH: UFC AUSTIN PICKS & BETS
Apple: apple.co/2EO5trZ
Spotify: spoti.fi/35EZVLk
Stitcher: bit.ly/DOPStitcher
WEATHER
Looking at the weather report, yes, the very first few people on the course look to have a slight advantage for a few hours, maybe. But I’m not going to let this affect my bets or DraftKings lineups. I just don’t see enough of an advantage, so stick with the guys you like. I did stack some cheap guys for Round 1 showdown in those lineups, and I took all early players for First Round Leader long shots and pray I get lucky. But that’s the extent of it for me.
BOOKMARK: WEATHER TOWER FOR US OPEN
DRAFTKINGS OWNERSHIP
Not sure how this “Spieth may be sick news” will affect ownership overall, but I’d guess it just solidifies Xander as the higher owned of the two. Overall, ownership is relatively flat with high dips either way with the surrounding players. Like Rahm, Scheffler, and JT should be pretty close, with Rory way above and Smith, VIK, and Morikawa way below.
WATCH: DK OWNERSHIP & PIVOTS
Same as the 8Ks, Finau and Burns have a chance to be higher than Fitzpatrick after the Fitz fatigue the past few days, but I know Homa, Niemann, Young, and Berger are all going to draw interest too. So how high can any one get? No one using Brooks or Hatton, there’s little interest in Horschel (6-9%), so one or two of these guys is going too get squeezed and come in below what we expect. I think that’s going to be Young and probably Berger, mainly because I think Finau gets HUGE support we didn’t see coming.
The guesses
Rory
Im
Finau
Xander
Lowry
Fitzpatrick
Burns
Homa
Zalatoris
Conners
We’re here. Now the actually fun starts.
Best of luck
— PM