US OPEN PREVIEW, Course + Player Notes

+ Giveaways, Graphics + NFL

Jun 12, 2022

US OPEN + BETTING BOARD

The weekend in Toronto almost felt like it was a WWE work. The best and most visible players make a charge to end up in the final group together, with the TOUR’s biggest star triumphing in the end, with insanely loud galleries chanting his name. Making it better, I finally hooked a win with a Rory/Rory double STILL LIVE into next week.

As many who’ve been following know: This is been a terrible year for me in the out right betting market. There have been a lot of runners up along the way, but that’s going to happen, it’s inevitable. I’ve made three critical mistakes in 2022 and the’ve all happened the same way: Talking myself out of the player I liked best because I wanted better odds: Cam Smith at TOC, Cam Smith at Sawgrass, and JT at The PGA Championship. I couldn’t let myself do it again this week with Rory. Hopefully I can run this to two in a row in a big spot next week.

For bets, Fienberg and I will be debating the board Monday afternoon (after we hear who Birthday Boy Cust has put a hex on), and all I have in currently is

Sungjae Im 66/1 with Top 5 each way.

One of the few players who possesses above average distance, while being elite in the accuracy department, the past few months have been a Tee-to-Green master class from the South Korean. It’s, just, sometimes the putter doesn’t cooperate. Even so, he’s finished no worse than T21 in any even since THE PLAYERS, gaining over +8.3 strokes T2G over his past four events.

I’m almost certain I’ll be making the plunge on Shane Lowry as well. I’m hoping for better than the 35s I see floating around at the moment, but we’ll see. It’s been an incredible year for the Irishman to date, despite not hoisting a novelty check… yet. Yes, he won The Open Championship, but the US Open has always seemed like the best fit for his game. He’s only one of five players in the field to rank inside the Top 35 in both distance and accuracy on difficult, deep rough courses, and no player has performed better on holes playing over par this season than Lowry.

From there, my initial leans is someone near the top of the board, but I keep seeing Morikawa slipping down the board. There was a 40 momentarily on 365, but was gone before I could jump. Best on market at the moment is 33, but I (hope) that will drift even further. Actually I don’t. I know I can pass on but at 25. But I can’t at 35 or 40. I’m not made of stone.

Curious to see what happens to Scheffler’s number with Rory wining and JT surging. 14/1 is best I’ve seen at a number of places currently, and that could fall now that he’s all of a sudden out of favor. He actually had a very good T2G week in Canada (12th) and just treaded water on the greens (-0.54 for the week).

FREE $$$

As mentioned on the US Open content already this week, I’m staking someone in the $200 single entry on DK and two people in the $100 Milly Maker this week. Or you can just take the cash, I don’t give a shit what you do with it. There are myriad ways to get ballots into the draw, but the main one, per usual, is leaving a review for the PME audio podcast. Even if you’ve done it before, do it again and re-qualify. Takes like 30 seconds.

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Me and Tambo will give out the winners on Wednesday Live Show. Per usual, our shows can only succeed with the help of you, and these are the best ways to help us grow the show in important weeks like this.

US OPEN CONTENT

US OPEN DK PICKS with Tambo & Rasa

US OPEN RESEARCH SHOW

US OPEN PICKS AND COURSE PREVIEW

US OPEN BETS AND CURSED (Monday)

US OPEN PLAYER BY PLAYER (Tuesday Night)

US OPEN LIVE CHAT 12pm ET Wednesday on MMN YT

US OPEN CUT SWEAT (Friday Night)

The DK Listner’s League is 6000 spots this week with $90K of RAKE FREE money. So LETS FILL IT!!!!

I’ll even give ya the direct link

PLAY: PME DRAFTKINGS LISTENER LEAGUE

US OPEN COURSE NOTES

Field

Players: 156
Cut: Top 60 and Ties (YES, 60 AND TIES)

Key Stats

Adjusted Total Driviing
Proximity 175+ Yards
Strokes Gained: Around the Green
Bogey Avoidance

Course

Course: The Country Club
Yardage: 7,264
Par: 70
Greens: Poa Annua

Past Winners

2021: Jon Rahm -6 (Torrey Pines)
2020: Bryson DeChambeau -6 (Winged Foot)
2019: Gary Woodland -13 (Pebble Beach)
2018: Brooks Koepka +1 (Shinnecock Hills)
2017: Brooks Koepka -16 (Erin Hills)
2016: Dustin Johnson -4 (Oakmount)
2015: Jordan Spieth -5 (Chambers Bay)

US OPENS AT THE COUNTRY CLUB
(All Playoffs btw)

1988: Curtis Strange -6
1963: Julius Boros +9
1913: Francis Ouimet +12

READ: FULL COURSE AND FIELD BREAKDOWN

US OPEN PLAYER NOTES

I’m hoping to have most of the field covered by the end of the week in here. I may even turn some into annoying Twitter threads. We’ll see on that, though.

Jordan Spieth

Mr. Magic Beans has gained 1.5+ strokes ARG in six straight measured events
Gained 5 strokes putting at Memorial, potentially a sign that he fixed the weird putting slump (cumulative putting strokes gained in his eight measured events prior: -17.3 strokes)
Gained across the board at this event last season (just 1 of 4 that can make that claim: Berger, Brooks and Rahm)

Will Zalatoris

Has gained 3.5+ strokes T2G in 8 of 9 measured events in 2022
Fine outright betting profile … top-6 or MC in each of his past 5 events (Sunday sweat or a free weekend)
2021 US Open: Lost a total of 18 feet in proximity from 100-125 and 150-175. Gained in every other approach segment over 100 yards. +8.1 feet from 100-125 over his past 2 events and has gained from 150-175 in 9 straight. In form in the areas that cost him last year

Viktor Hovland

Had the best putting week of his career the last time we saw him (+5.8 at Memorial)
His previous best week? The 2021 CJ Cup (+5.5) … he won his next start (Mayakoba, he won by 4 strokes with Justin Thomas and Scottie Scheffler in the mix)
In the September US Open, he ranked 5th in Proximity from 200+
He’s been hot with the sub 150-yard irons over his past 3 events (average cumulative game in those events: +11.1)

Abe Ancer

Gained 5.2 strokes in his 2 rounds at the 2021 US Open (ranked T-9 for the week … ahead of 5 players that cashed top-10 paychecks!)
Remove this missed cut and his average career finish when gaining over 3 strokes in approach … 12th
39% of his finishes in those events have been top-5
He bled 2.6 strokes off the tee that week
He had gained OTT in the 7 events prior to the 2021 US Open and has done so in 15 of 19 measured events since (including his past 7).

Daniel Berger

Progressively getting better (last 3 US Open finishes): 49-34-7
2021 US Open: He gained 6.7 strokes in APP, 1.5 ARG and 1.8 P
What to guess how many events he’s ever gained 5.5-1.5-1.5? One. That one.
He finished 7th that week. During the months leading up to that event, he posted a top-25 at Charles Schwab and a top-15 at THE PLAYERS, a pair of form boxes he also has checked this season

Form

Spiked in both APP (+5.4) and P (+6.6), his fourth best effort ever) at Memorial
That confidence is huge given that his OTT work is pretty much assumed (gained in 20 of 24 events since the beginning of 2021, never losing more than 1.0 strokes)

Patrick Cantlay

He’s shown pieces of a complete game in US Open conditions

2019: +4.2 SG:P
2020: +1.7 SG:APP
2021: +3.6 SG:ARG, +3.4 SG:P

He’s gained at least 3 strokes both ARG and P six times in his career. Those finishes: 1-2-3-3-8-15
Win equity … when he circles the leaderboard, he pays off (on each ways at the very least)
Let’s label “competing” as a top-20 finish. He has 12 of them since that brutal MC streak early in 2021 … he’s finished inside the top-5 in 8 of those events

Max Homa

Form

For the first time in 14 months, Homa has consecutive green bars on Fantasy Nationals (gained strokes in each category: T2G, OTT, APP, ARG and P)
The putter is hot … +15.6 strokes over his past 4 events
That’s an average of 3.9 strokes per tournament
In all 4 of his career wins (and 9 of his 12 top-7 finishes) he’s gained at least 3.9 strokes putting

Sergio Garcia

The last time we saw him (PGA Championship), the only thing he did well was OTT (+1.4 strokes in 2 rounds, lost a total of 3.9 strokes after the tee shot). Well unless you include the LIV TOUR. Serg finished +6 and T22 in the opening event.
In fact, he’s gained OTT in 9 straight, so that seems to have been figured out
2021 US Open: 4.5 SG:APP and 2.1 SG:P. Usually that’s enough to get us paid. His average career finish when gaining over 2 strokes both on APP and P: 6th place (top-7 in 79% of those events)

Dustin Johnson

Top-10 in 5 of his past 8 US Opens
Lost on the greens, but he’s shown the ability to pop, seemingly out of nowhere
2021 PLAYERS: Gained 5.4 strokes putting (after losing 2.6 total in the first 2 events of the calendar year)
Late last summer, he was among the best putters on the planet … was largely average in the two months prior
Early 2021: Lost a career high 10 strokes putting at WGC-Mexico … went on to gain a total of 9.4 strokes with the flat stick over his next two measured events
T8 (-1) in the first LIV TOUR EVENT over the weekend

THE DRIVER

Merely glancing at the past six champs of the US OPEN will tell you DRIVING MATTERS. We thought it may not at Pebble Beach since it was short. NOPE. Mattered a ton. And it will this week too.

Here are the Adjusted Total Driving (60% Distance; 40% Accuracy) leaders over the past 24 rounds. Keegan looks awfully tempting. You can customize your searches any way you like (while getting 20%) at Fantasy National.

TOOLS: Get 20% all MEMBERSHIPS AT FANTASY NATIONAL

NFL

The RANKINGS are comiing soon, but you can customise your projections already.

The Custom Projection builder is now LIVEEEEEE at RunTheSims. It’s a free tool, and you can save your adjustments and come back later. It just requires an email address, no payments or info needed beyond that.

TOOLS: RUN THE SIMS FREE NFL PROJECTION BUILDER

INTRO TO SEASON + DRAFT TRENDS

WR OVERVALUED + HYPE PLAYERS

RB ROOKIE RANKS AND PROJECTIONS

WR ROOKIE RANKS AND PROJECTIONS

WEATHER

It’s too early to rely on any forecast, but I still like looking. I shouldn’t have however. Looks like carnage for at least a few days. The US Open is tough enough (shout out MAVEN) , let’s at least have decent weather.

WEATHER TOWER FOR US OPEN

— PM