The Sentry Finals Bets, Week 18 Uncertainty, LIVE SHOW
+ Final PGA Best Ball Info
Upcoming PME Related Things
LIVE SHOW FRIDAY AT 1015AM ET
I’m testing out adding a LIVE show Friday mornings to the PME Schedule. It will be available afterwards on the audio podcast feeds. It’s aimed to be more of a hang type show with different guests coming in and out with a bunch of different sports. I know most people come to MMN for very specific things topics like golf, football and UFC, but I want to try and create a time killer for Fridays that can also last into the weekend if you’re someone (like me) who is always searching for a fresh podcast to listen to when I run out.
It will GO LIVE at 1015am ET on the Mayo Media YouTube Channel. We may simulcast on X as well. Still trying to work that one out.
1015am ET — Week 18 DK Picks, Props & Underdog Props with Davis to lead it off.
11am ET — Thor Nystrom is up to recap the College Playoff, look at the advanced lines for the semi finals, and talk top NFL Draft Prospects.
1130 ET — Keith Stewart will join to chat R1 from the Sentry and Round 2 Match Ups and more golf bets to try and make for the weekend.
I suppose the numbers will let me know if you all care for a format like this or not, but if you have thoughts either way, respond to this post and tell me. Eventually, I envision this going to twice a week along with the staple shows on the feed to include more sports and guests.
UNDERDOG BEST BALL
The big $500K ($50K to 1st) PGA Draft is almost filled. Which is crazy considering it was destined for massive overlay like four days ago. Most people know I’m not really in on NFL best ball so I was shocked to discover I really liked doing the PGA ones on Underdog. Seems like others felt that way too. The contest locks an hour before The Sentry starts which is at 1145am ET. I’d wager the contest will fill by midnight eastern time, though.
I can’t recommend this format enough. ANDDDDD, since this one was so successful, I believe we’ll get another similar type contest probably starting at Pebble or Waste Management in about a month. ANDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD if enough people sign up using code MAYO for the first time at Underdog, we may get a custom contest for viewers, listeners, and readers which would be awesome.
Just getting the despot bonus (up to $1000) by using code MAYO at Underdog basically means you can do your drafts for half price. Take advantage of that bonus now, do some drafts, then save the rest for the drafts later in the month.
Use code “MAYO” at Underdog for deposit bonus up to $1000
If you’re looking for strategy and rankings for Best Ball I’ve done a bunch of videos and podcast on it on the feed now or you can just read write up here:
READ: PGA BEST BALL DRAFT STRATGY & UNDERDOG FANTASY PLAYER RANKINGS
Week 18 NFL BEST BETS
With so much uncertainly with who is playing and who isn’t in Week 18, we pushed back filming with Rob and Cam to early Thursday morning. If you’re wondering where that show is when you wake it, it’ll be out around lunch time. Hopefully more coherent than last week to boot!
PME HOT LINKS
Week 18 Spread Picks + Cust Corner: NYE Parties & Tipping at Sports Bars
The Sentry DraftKings Picks, Lineups, Final Bets, Weather + DFS No Cut Strategy
PGA Best Ball Draft + Lineup Review and Mistakes w/ Eric Polzin
The Sentry Picks, Best & Underdog PGA Best Ball Draft w/ Geoff Fienberg
The Sentry Research, Picks Show & PGA Best Ball Rankings Breakdown
2024 PGA TOUR/GOLF Year in Review with Geoff & Kenny Kim
PGA/LIV, Ryder Cup Pay, Gambling Influence on Golf, Pace of Play, TV Coverage with Michael Kim
The Sentry Final Bets
Nothing has really changed from me as the week has gone along. Usually, something crops up after I record the shows, just nothing did this week. I see a lot of people going to the top this week and betting X and Morikawa, which does make a lot of sense.
In what I consider a putting contest, I find that this event may have too much variance to eat such low odds. But as anyone who has followed me the past year knows: I’ve been very wrong about who wins golf tournaments.
This is a new year, though. And my final decision came down to Clark vs Bhatia. Since it’s the first event I didn’t want to have FOMO so I just bet them both. Bhatia is hanging at 30 at Coolbet right now, and the Clark number is is the Top 3 each way bet at Bet365 in case you’re looking for this numbers. The others are from earlier in the week.
Bets
Theegala 28
Burns 28
Bhatia 30
Clark 60 (3 Places)
Dunlap 75
Hall 90 (5 Places)
Sahith Theegala 28/1
Last year’s runner-up is farther down the odds board than you’d expect when you gander a few of the names above him. Theegala drastically improved his driving in 2024 which was the one area where he was lacking among the world’s elite. He’s not Rory off the tee, but he’s firmly above average now. Which is great considering his elite short game and spike irons. Plus, if he gets a bit wayward off the tee this week the expansive fairways can cover up those errors. Plus, the slow greens allow him to be be aggressive as he wants. It’s really the perfect cause for Sahith.
Sam Burns 28/1
Many forget (by that I mean, me) how good Burns was last year despite it feeling like never really contended for anything. It’s shockingly similar to Morikawa’s 2024, just without the collection of high finishes in Majors. It’s probably because he gagged away the AMEX on the 17th hole I never forgave him. It’s a new year now, though. Time to forgive. I have to since I placed him so highly in 2025 season-long rankings. Burns is always better on Bermuda, and did gain over 6.4 SG: Putting three times in his final five starts.
Akshay Bhatia 30/1
Akshay had it going until round four here a year ago, then the wheels came off with his irons and he just couldn’t generate any birdie chances. A year later, the hope is that does’t happen again and his putter on slow greens remains one of the best in world.
Wyndham Clark 60/1 (3 Places)
Clark is a gut call from me. He’s won two no-cut events over the past 18 months and has been a criminally underrated wedge player and putter fro a while. He wasn’t showing the form required to win this event during the final stretch of 2024, but it’s a new year. Hopefully he reset and can take advantage of the odds drift.
Nick Dunlap 75/1
First timers at Kapalua don’t have a ton of success, but every few first timers are the reigning rookie of the year who won twice in the past 12 months at birdiefests. His putter is far from reliable, yet when it’s on, he has tended to pair with it elite iron play at the same time. He’s a true Ricky Bobby in a field like this, he can first or last. Which is fine for his odds.
Harry Hall 90/1 (5 Places)
Hall seems like such a trap. It just happens to be one I can’t help walking into. The Brit can’t drive at all, which may not be absolutely killer here, but enters this week Top 10 in proximity inside 150 yards, chipping, and putting over the past 36 rounds. Now, it’s worth noting most of those number were accumulated in jabroni events, but he excelled in those specific areas. If I believe those are the keys this week, a kinda have to roll with ‘arry ‘all.
For more of a course breakdown and historical info about this event, check out the post from Monday:
READ: The Sentry Bets, Fantasy Picks, Preview & Breakdown
PGA ONE AND DONE & FREE ENTRY
Now that the RACE FOR THE MAYO CUP is OVER 54% FILLED (up from 38% on Monday.) I’m encouraging you to get some entries NOW for yourself or someone you know before it all fills up in advance of the Sony Open.
Shout out to Josh Adams (@jpadams555) for winning the New Years Day FREE ENTRY. The final two winners will be announced on Monday’s Sony Open Show with Feinberg. So there still time to get in the draw
Reply to this newsletter or tweet at me with a screen shot of your entry for this year, you get in a draw for another . If you’ve already sent in your screenshot, you remain in the draw!
For you who don’t want to shell out the $250 for the season (about $7 a week), I’m giving one FREE ENTRY to the people who Sub, rate and review the PME audio podcast on Apple and Spotify. So if you want to try and get realllllllllllyyyyyy lucky, do that and have a chance to freeroll $100K
Apple: http://bit.ly/PMEiTunes
Spotify: https://goo.gl/VboemH
btw if you live in a place where you can’t legally play, if you happen to be traveling for the holidays, sign up in that place and you cam make picks from anywhere all year long.
PLAY IN THE 2025 RACE FOR THE MAYO CUP ONE AND DONE
Week 18 Spread Picks
These line will probably shift another 5 times in the next 24 hours. But here’s what we all took in case you really want to fade us.
Sentry Tee Times (All in ET)
Sentry Weather
We’ve seen wind affect this event in past years, but that doesn’t appear like it will be the case in 2025. Thursday is the gustiest day, but after that the wind looks dead Friday-Sunday. Just makes me even more jealous of this Hawaii weather tbh. It’s fucking freezing where I’m at.
KAPALUA WIND TOWER: Maui / Honolua Bay
Sentry DraftKings
If you missed it, Eric Polzin and I went through the DraftKings pricing and mapped out different ways to make your lineups unique this week. Plus, we discussed small-field, No-Cut event DK strategy. Tambo is back next week for Sony in case you were wondering.
The Sentry DraftKings Picks, Lineups + DFS No Cut Strategy
This is a scatter shot type of week for me on the DK side. I don’t plan on investing that money into this tournament as I dip my toe back into the waters. And I simply much prefer the Sony on DK over this event. Doesn’t mean I don’t have thoughts on the matter however:
Basically, I’m building a lot between Burns down to Greyserman and doing a 5-1 balanced and dud lineups. In the 9K range I’m using zero of Viktor, JT, and Finau, and leading a few squads with Cantlay. In the 7Ks I’ve tried to work in Dunlap, Harman, Poston and Fitz with Hall and Cole just below where I can.
Plus, I’m playing some Garnett, Kizzire, and Campos from the bottom to make some super stud lineups work, as they’re unlikely to garner much ownership and I’ve seen them play well at birdiefest events on slow greens before. Probably a waste of my money. But it’s my money and I’ll waste it as I please.
Since lock doesn’t happen until lunchtime Thursday (ET), a lot of the ownership projections won’t be super accurate as of this writting. And Frankly, ownership on DK is usually off across the board for these small field events any way.
Regardless, here’s what Fantasy National is showing on a Wednesday afternoon. At this point of the week, I find Favorite % will tell more of the ownership story whereas the LU Gen% is better closer to lock. Check in in realtime at Fantasy National.
Get 20% all Tools, Stats, Custom Models with at FantasyNational.com/mayo
— PM