The Sentry Bets, Fantasy Picks, Preview & Breakdown
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2024 PGA TOUR/GOLF Year in Review with Geoff & Kenny Kim
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PGA/LIV, Ryder Cup Pay, Gambling Influence on Golf, Pace of Play, TV Coverage with Michael Kim
2025 The Sentry Picks & Preview
Field
Field: 60 players
Cut: No Cut
Lineup Lock: Thursday, January 2
Player Notes
Scottie Scheffler WD after hand injury. Expected to make first start at the AMEX in three weeks.
Rory McIlroy, Tommy Fleetwood, and Shane Lowry are all not playing.
Viktor Hovland has a broken toe but remains in the field. Hovland also seperated from his coach Joe Mayo, again, over the weekend.
Tony Finau has been dealing with a knee injury but remains in the field
Key Stats
Strokes Gained: Ball Striking
SG: Putting
Par 4s Gained
Proximity Gained 100-150 Yards
Opportunities Gained
Wedges/Long Iron/Short Game Rankings
Mayo’s Key Stats powered by FantasyNational.com. Get 20% all Tools, Stats, Custom Models with at FantasyNational.com/mayo
Course
Course: Plantation Course at Kapalua
Par: 73
Yardage: 7,596
Greens: Bermuda
Average Green Size: 8,722 sq. ft
Number of Sand Bunkers: 93
Number of Water Hazards: 0
The course was designed by Ben Crenshaw and Bill Coore. It opened in 1991 and has since undergone some renovations to enhance its playability. The course is situated on the slopes of the West Maui Mountains, overlooking the neighboring islands of Molokai and Lanai. It’s quite the spot. Not shocking everyone in the world besides Rory want to play there.
The Plantation Course has some the widest fairways on TOUR and the largest greens. There’s a massive amount of undulation through the fairways and putting surfaces as well. The layout takes advantage of the natural terrain, incorporating elevation changes and strategically placed hazards. Playing as a Par 73 it measures a shade under 7,600 yards and featuring several memorable holes, including the Par 5 18th hole, one of the longest finishing holes on the PGA Tour. The 17th hole is notable as well. The challenging 550 yard Par 4, is annually the most difficult hole on the course.
Largest Greens on TOUR
8,722 – Plantation Course (The Sentry)
8,300 – El Cardonal (World Wide Tech)
8,000 – Port Royal (Butterfield Bermuda)
7,500 – Riviera (Genesis Invitational)
7,500 – Bay Hill (Arnold Palmer)
Longest Courses on TOUR
7,765 – Torrey Pines (Farmers Insurance)
7,670 – Puntacana Resort (Corales Puntacana)
7,596 – Plantation Course (The Sentry)
7,571 – Muirfield Village (the Memorial)
7,545 – Augusta National (The Masters)
Past Winners
2024: Chris Kirk -29
2023: Jon Rahm -27
2022: Cam Smith -34
2021: Harris English -25
2020: Justin Thomas -14
2019: Xander Schauffele -23
Maybe I’m simply slow (strong possibly) but I’ve always mentioned Augusta National and TPC Deere Run as comps because of the amount of uneven lies at Kapalua once you get off the tee box. That does remain true, but those are really the only similar features besides crossover winners. Then I moved on to Detroit CC where many of the top players from that event have a good record here. Morikawa, Cantlay, Finau, and Fowler all have solid, even Cam Davis, Tom Kim and Cam Young had previously fared well in their debuts.
But then it hit me this year when thinking about it logically: Outside of Augusta on that list, the others are wedge and putting contests. Looking at that list of past champions (even more when you go back slightly farther and see Reed, Spieth, Stricker, and Zach Johnson as past winners) all elite wedge players and putters… at the time. Normally, we’ll chalk strong putting as up as relatively unpredictable, and while that make be the case on a indiviudal basis this week, the slow speed of the greens at Kapalua (11 on the Stim) will to create for one of the the long-term top putters to flourish.
When the field expanded a year ago to include the Top 50 from the FedEx Cup standings along with all of last year’s tournament winners, it allowed a lot of long shots to enter the mix as genuine contenders as elite ball striking (while still important, as always) is a bit less significant in the season opening event. And those back end players who normally wouldn’t have qualified for this event are a lot of the short course specialists who tend to specialize in wedges, chipping, and putting. That’s not to say the elite talents can’t win, it’s just their particular elite skill sets plays better at more difficult courses. Like at almost all resort course tournament, a hot putter will almost always win out by Sunday evening.
PGA ONE AND DONE & FREE ENTRY
Now that the RACE FOR THE MAYO CUP is approaching 38% FILLED (Well ahead of the pace of any other year btw) I’m encouraging you to get some entries NOW for yourself or someone you know before it all fills up in advance of the Sony Open.
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Also, for you who don’t want to shell out the $250 for the season (about $7 a week), I’m giving one FREE ENTRY to the people who Sub, rate and review the PME audio podcast on Apple and Spotify. So if you want to try and get realllllllllllyyyyyy lucky, do that and have a chance to freeroll $100K
Apple: http://bit.ly/PMEiTunes
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btw if you live in a place where you can’t legally play, if you happen to be traveling for the holidays, sign up in that place and you cam make picks from anywhere all year long.
PLAY IN THE 2025 RACE FOR THE MAYO CUP ONE AND DONE
2025 The Sentry Picks
Sam Burns 28/1
Many forget (by that I mean, me) how good Burns was last year despite it feeling like never really contended for anything. It’s shockingly similar to Morikawa’s 2024, just without the collection of high finishes in Majors. It’s probably because he gagged away the AMEX on the 17th hole I never forgave him. It’s a new year now, though. Time to forgive. I have to since I placed him so highly in 2025 season-long rankings. Burns is always better on Bermuda, and did gain over +6.4 SG:PUTT three times in his final five starts.
Sahith Theegala 28/1
Last year’s runner-up was farther down the odds board than you’d expect before the betting market came to its senses. Our loss. Still, when you gander a few of the names above him, the 28/1 remains a fair price relative to the rest of the top names. Theegala drastically improved his driving in 2024 which was the one area where he was lacking among the world’s elite. He’s still not Rory off the tee, but he’s firmly above average now. Which is is all he has to be considering his short game and irons are what seperates him on TOUR. Plus, if he gets a bit wayward off the tee this week the expansive fairways can cover up those errors, and the slow greens allow him to be aggressive as he wants with his putter. It’s really the perfect course for Sahith.
Nick Dunlap 75/1
First timers at Kapalua don’t have a ton of success, but very few first timers are the reigning rookie of the year who won twice in the past 12 months, also at birdiefests. Dunlap’s putter is far from reliable, yet when he’s rolling it well, he has tended to pair with it elite iron play at the same time. He’s a true Ricky Bobby in a field like this, he can first or last. Which is fine for his odds.
Harry Hall 90/1 (With 5 Places)
Hall seems like such a trap. It just happens to be one I can’t help but walk into. The Brit can’t drive at all, which may not be absolutely killer here, and enters this week Top 10 in this field in proximity inside 150 yards, chipping, and putting over the past 36 rounds. Now, it’s worth noting most of those number were accumulated in jabroni events, but it did happen. Hall did excel in those specific areas. If I believe those are the keys this week, a kinda have to roll with ‘arry ‘all.