THE PLAYERS UPDATE: Bets, Weather, Tee Times, Rankings, Odds Shifts

PLAYERS QUICK BETS

WINNER

• Aberg +1900

• Straka +6000

• N. Taylor (With 8 Places)

TOP GERMAN

• Schmit over Jaeger +100

FIRST ROUND LEADER

• N. Taylor +8000 (With 5 Places)

• Hoge +17000 (With 5 Places)

Q&A LIVE

I’m LIVE twice Wednesday in case you have any final Qs you want to ask. Tambo and I are LIVE starting at 9am ET Wednesday am. We’ll take Qs at the end of the show after we go over bets, One and Done, Weather, Tee Times and, of course, DraftKings Lineups.

Then, I’ll have a pure Q & A session at 7pm ET Wednesday evening. In case your job doesn’t let you let you not work in lieu of asking golf questions to a weirdo on YouTube.

MMN YouTube: https://bit.ly/YTMMN

PME SHOWS & SCHEDULE

PLAYERS Picks, Bets, One and Done | API/PRO Recap | ANDERCURSED

PLAYERS BEST BETS, FIRST ROUND LEADER, NATIONALITY PROPS

PLAYERS Picks, Research, Sleepers, Course Preview

PLAYERS Championship Preview, Picks, Odds, First Look

WEDNESDAY (LIVE AT 9am ET): PLAYERS DraftKings Picks, Lineups, Final Bets, Weather, One and Done | Viewer Q & A w/ @ToeTagginTambo

WEDNESDAY (LIVE at 7PM ET): PLAYERS Final Bets and Viewer Q & A

FRIDAY (LIVE at 4pm ET): PLAYERS CUT SWEAT LIVE

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PLAYERS BETS

Ludvig Aberg +1900 — There has been a solid trend line for PLAYERS winners since it has moved to March. Recent form truly does matter. Well, that an iron play. Making Aberg a tad more difficult to figure out. The Swede got sick at Farmers after holding the first round lead and sank on the weekend, then posted a disastrous third round at API which throws off a lot of his approach numbers. He still came T22 btw after going low on Sunday: Keeping him on the edge of the PLAYERS winner trend line. In his other three starts we got a Win, T5 and WD. If you’re willing to give him a pass on that Saturday debacle at Bay Hill, Aberg’s primed to pick up a another victory, building off T8 a year ago in his Sawgrass debut.

Sepp Straka +6000 — Yes, this would be a big step up in class for Straka against his three other wins, but he fits the lead-in form criteria and is a skill match. He’s won in Florida and at a Pete Dye course already while positing five Top 15 finishes in his past six starts, including the victory at AMEX`. Additionally, Straka’s one of the more accurate players in the field, sits Top 5 in approach over the past 24 rounds, and is tops of all players in opportunities gained.

Nick Taylor 125 (With 8 Places) — Taylor’s lack of success at Sawgrass is concurrently confusing while making complete sense. The Canadian is basically Ricky Bobby: If he’s not first, he’s last. OK, maybe it’s not that extreme, but for a guy with five PGA wins he tends to implode in stronger field events. That makes sense for most of the Majors and signature events, but Sawgrass is in the wheelhouse for style of course he does his best work; Sony, Wyndham, Phoenix. One of the most accurate players off the tee, Taylor enters with a win and Top 25 finishes in five of his past six events, and has actually gained +3.6/+4.8/+8.2 SG:APP in three of his past four starts at THE PLAYERS. That jibes with his current play has he’s Top 10 in approach, 450-500 yard Par 4s, 5-10’ putting, and birdies or better gained over the past 24 rounds. Plus, we’ve seen he has the stones when he gets into Sunday contention. Something that can’t be said for most players above 100/1.

TOP GERMAN Matti Schmid (+100) over Stephan Jaeger — Schmid has done solid work at Pete Dye tracks in his career and actually comes in hot with Top 20s in each of his past two starts. And showed out in his debut a year ago posting a T26. While Jaeger is the better overall player, I just hate his skill match for Sawgrass. He’s made the cut just once in three tries (T44 in 2023), and while his ball striking will probably be decent, I tend to favor him at longer courses where accuracy means less and his scrambling can take over. Oh, he’s been dealing with a bad cases of the LEFTS off the tee the past month too. Gonna be tough to scramble from a lake.

FIRST ROUND LEADERS

Nick Taylor +8000 (With 5 Places) & Tom Hoge +17000 (With 5 Places)

Both are in the (currently) better weather as a part of the am wave and both flash iron play to go toe-to-toe with the best players in the world… for one round. Hoge’s been broken since Pebble Beach, hence why he’s so low on the odds board, but don’t forget he was FRL at Sentry to open the year against all the best players. Oh, he broke the course record at Sawgrass two years ago with a 62 too.

I love Taylor as a dark horse winner, Top 10/20 this week, but he’s entering Sawgrass third in approach over the past 24 rounds and missed FRL by a stroke Thursday at The PLAYERS last year. If he can’t win the whole thing, maybe he can just win the first round? Or at finish round one inside the Top 5. That’d be nice.

For the course/field preview and more a in-depth breakdown, check out yesterday’s post…

THREE GIVEAWAYS

I’m giving away three different prizes for PLAYERS week!!!!!!!!

• $500 Cash

• $200

• A FREE Year of FantasyNational

3 ways to get into the draw for the $500 & Fantasy National Membership, and doing each will get you a ballot (Up to three ballots)

• SUB to Mayo Media Network on YouTube and comment on a PME PLAYERS Video.

MMN YouTube: https://bit.ly/YTMMN

• SUB, RATE (5 Starts), and REVIEW the PME Audio Podcast on Apple and Spotify.

Apple: http://bit.ly/PMEiTunes

Spotify: https://goo.gl/VboemH

For the $200 giveaway, I’ll be picking one person from X (Formally known as Twitter) who retweets and likes videos and articles from my account this week. Everytime you do it, it’s another ballott into the draw. If you RT one of the articles on my X acount for THE PLAYERS it’s worth 5 ballots. so GO CRAZY!!!!

FOLLOW MAYO ON X at THEPME

TEE TIMES

WEATHER

Seems like minimal wave advantage Thursday/Friday with wind rising throughout the round both days before HAVOC comes on the weekend.

WIND TOWER: Palm Valley, ICWW

Now, you can plan around good wind players for the weekend (more so in DFS) but honestly, I’m more concerned about getting my guys through the cut and hoping to get lucky. Although if the current forecast stands, taking someone well back who’s out on the course early Saturday may be a look in the betting market. The JT from 2021 move.

Wind stats are sort of useless because the rounds are cherry picked from all sorts of different courses. It doesn’t necessary tell you how a player would do in wind at this specific venue. For example: Akshay has been one of the best players in winds over 17mph over the past three years. But it’s only 13 rounds over three years. A pretty noisy sample. Plus, six of those rounds were at Corales and Puerto Rico, two easy courses with weak fields. So take these with the utmost grain of salt. Still fun to look at tho.

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TIGER OUT (Forever?)

Tiger reported Tuesday afternoon he underwent surgery to repair a torn achilles. God forbid he won’t be ready for the Jupiter Links to start the 2026 TGL season. But Masters 2026 may even be wishful thinking now.

UNDERDOG GOLF DRAFTS

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POWER RANKINGS

I put the STAT POWER RANKINGS in Sunday’s post, but the numbers have now updated from API and PRO, so here’s what they look like now over the past 24 rounds…

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ONE MORE TOP OF THE BOARD BET

As you may (or may not. Who fucking knows?) have read earlier in this article, I’m in on Ludvig at +1900. Still, I probably want to add one more player from near the top of the betting board.

Each of the 5 PLAYERS winners since the move to March have been class talent. Cam Smith had the longest odds at +3000. So, who is it?

Scottie’s price is just too steep for me to pay at at +550. It’s dropping, but it’s also not like Scottie’s had his best stuff in 2025, either. I found it tough taking that price when he was winning every week, and it doesn’t seem like we’re getting much a discount.

Morikawa is the obvious choice for this. He’s a perfect skill match, is playing awesome, and it just feels inevitable he’ll pick up another giant win soon. I am worried the scar tissue from Sundays over the last few years are starting to get to him, and he’s likely to have to deal with better players than Henley and Conners down the stretch at Sawgrass. Plus, I missed the early numbers which were much better. He’s actually the second favorite on a lot of books now.

Tommy Fleetwood. In a year of Detry and Henley overcoming CLS (Chronic Loser Syndrome), many seem to investing in Tommy to find the cure this week. Honestly, I don’t hate it. He’s playing great T2G right now, is primed for one of these wins at some point, and the nasty weather on the weekend should help him vs. the field. But seeming him drop sub +3000 is a bridge too far for me. I’ll gladly root for him to win if none of the guys I bet on are in contention. But he’s not stealing my money. Again.

Russell Henley makes sense. But if I didn’t do it in either of the past two weeks I doubt I’lll be shoving my chips into he middle at +3000 no matter how good he looks on paper.

That leaves, Rory, JT, Xander, and Hideki from the +3000 and higher range. It’s going to be one of these guys. No final decision has been made yet (as I haven’t wagered the money), but Hideki has been kinda bad since his win at Sentry. If not for his amazing chipping in the past three events, more people would notice how off his driving and irons are. We’re down the final three.

I’ve seen numbers as high as +3300 on Thomas, the 2021 winner. I weirdly think I’d prefer him in the similar scenario from 2021 too. Sneak through the cut, get the better weather on Saturday, make a move and be in the thick of it come Sunday. I’ve always liked JT as a chaser better anyway. The irons have been amazing, the chipping is always solid, and the putter hasn’t been as bad as people seem to think. Yes, it was awful at Bay Hill on the greens, but he’s actually gained vs the field in three of five starts this year.

Xander’s number keeps rising. And I’m getting tempted. He played his Sunday alone at API and fired a 69 to close out his first week back from his Marilyn Manson surgery. He’s been T2 here twice before and digging deeper into his numbers from last week, it was chipping and putting that sunk him. Xander’s driving and irons were actually pretty good. Feel and touch on and around the greens tend to be part of the game which require shaking off the most rust, and he did that by round four. And how often are you going to get him lurking around +3000?

Finally, there’s Rory. Last year’s first round leader at Sawgrass (with Clark and Fitz). It wasn’t encouraging to see him tinkering with his clubs last week, especially after winning at Pebble Beach. But I’m testing out a new theory this year. The people who I think are going to do well never do at Sawgrass, so pull a Costanza and just go against my instincts.

I wasn’t even considering Rory as a bet, but he’s down to +1500 in some places now after opening at +900. Remember, Rory does have a win and no finish worse than T17 in his four starts in 2025. ANDDDDDD he’s gained over 4 strokes putting in two of his past three starts.

I asked people on the world wide web about this and it seems like no one believes. That’s usually when it becomes Rory week.

ANYONE FEELING RORY THIS WEEK?

Also, I’m considering adding a Day, Spieth, Mav, Berger or some other goober from the mid-range who won’t win too. More on that in Wednesday’s post tho.