2025 PLAYERS Championship Picks, Bets, Course Preview, Historic DK Notes, Giveaways

Fresh off the best week I’ve had in some time…

let’s get to the

2025 THE PLAYERS Championship

• Field: 144 Players

• Cut: Top 65 and Ties after 36 Holes

• First Tee: Thursday, March 13

• Defending Champion: Scottie Scheffler

I’ve actually come to appreciate THE PLAYERS over the years. Still, calling itself the “Fifth Major” will cease being ridiculous. As you see, there are only four Majors. I was always more prone to the 42nd Major, the Corales Puntacana Championship, anyway.

As much as that moniker has been rightfully mocked over the years, there is something more important about THE PLAYERS on the PGA TOUR schedule. And it’s not just the money. It occupies the space between the Majors and every other tournament. Sawgrass gathers a field stronger than some of the Majors, at an amusement park course, yet still provides an amazing tune up for what we can expect from the actual Majors a mere month before the Masters tees off.

Problem is, we’ve already seen essentially this same field three times in the past six weeks. Because of this: I motion to remove the the use of ALL CAPS for its spelling.

At least there was always the gigantic purse at THE PLAYERS. Not to say $25M isn’t still massive. But when the same players are competing for $20M seven days previous, there almost needs to be $50M in the prize pool to truly make it more consequential. If every event is elevated, none are. At least there’s a real cut line.

I don’t want to seem like Dr. Doom-and-Gloom over here, however. Since THE PLAYERS, at its core, is a made for TV event, the viewing experience (outside of The Masters app) is the best we’re going to get all year. All of the internet quibbling about never getting to see shots isn’t an issue this week. There are cameras set up at every hole and following every group; through the ESPN+ app, you can MacGyver your own version of Green Zone (PME Copyright) where you can follow your bets, DraftKings lineups or favorite players. It’s easy. Also, I do a LIVE CUT SWEAT show on Friday’s of the big events (Sub here if you want to hang with us while the field is finishing Friday).

I understand the cost and complicated logistics associated with providing this sort of broadcast, but if the PGA TOUR was able to magically find almost a billion dollars to give to the players as de facto appearance fees, then excuses about trying to do this type of full coverage at other events falls short. While the ESPN+ coverage isn’t special, in fact it’s quite bland; it’s been better than any of its predecessors for early round and morning coverage. They had to just turn on three extra cameras.

Just pray for limited weather delays. Stupid Smarch weather is never great for keeping Florida golf on pace.

As for the field, the biggest absence is this guy named Tiger Woods. Tiger hasn’t played outside of TGL so far this year and it’s now unlikely we see him in a competitive tournament until The Masters. Even that doesn’t seem like a lock anymore. Ernie Els and Brandon Todd are both WD as well, along with Alex Noren. Turns out, Noren tore his glute and hamstring in advance of the Sentry and is still sidelined. Other than that, unless you’re on LIV, you’ll going to be at Sawgrass.

Last year’s runner-up Xander Schauffele returned to competitive play at Bay Hill last week so he’s back to full health. Maybe not peak performance. Yet, the most fascinating name may actually be Laurie Canter. Canter has moved to No. 42 in the world rankings with three Top 3s and a win on the DP World Tour so far this season. Nothing too crazy about that, Canter’s pretty good. But as a former LIV GOLF tour player, it’s fascinating to see him back in a PGA TOUR sanctioned event. Curious what this means for other LIV golfers who may want to return in the near future, if anything.

HOT LINKS

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KEY STATS

• Strokes Gained: Approach

• Recent Form

• Par 4s Gained

• Fairways Gained

Mayo’s Key Stats powered by FantasyNational.com

Course

• TPC Sawgrass

• Yardage: 7,352 (75 yards longer than 2024)

• Par: 72

• Greens: TifEagle bermudagrass/Poa trivialis overseed .100”

• Bunkers: 92

• Holes Water is in Play: 17

• Green Size: 5,500 sq. ft.

• Average Fairway Widths: 28 yards

Changes for 2025

• New tournament tee on No. 2 added 15 yards.

• Re-established the iconic tree on No. 6 tee, while adding 15 yards (original tree was lost in 2014).

• New tee complex on No. 11 added 15 yards.

• Stronger, deeper and dramatic moguls with additions of palms, oaks and native grasses in the right rough on No. 14.

Par 3's (4): Average distance - 183 yards

• All four play over par, including a 7.9% double-or-worse rate for #17 (the Par 3 that also holds the highest birdie percentage of the Par 3's)

• Scheffler had at least one Par 3 birdie in every round last season

Par 4's (10): Average distance - 433 yards

• The two toughest holes on property are back-9 Par 4's (Holes 14 and 18, both of which have an over-par rate north of 30%)

• All four of Scheffler's bogey's last year came on Par 4's, three coming on Holes 1-6

Par 5's (4): Average distance - 554 yards

• Four of the five easiest holes on the course (#16 has a 48.6% under-par rate, including 3.6% eagle percentage)

• Scheffler birdied #16 in all four rounds and had multiple birdies on the Par 5's in all four rounds.

DraftKings Showdown

There will likely be an influx of casual players for this event, so it's a good time to leverage this angle. Hole 18 is the toughest on the course (2.5x more likely to bogey than to birdie), making a back-to-front build a tough sell. If you can get that hole (462-yard Par 4), holes 1-2 are very gettable, but I prefer front-to-back.

Starting on one gets access to two of the five easiest holes (9 and 11, both Par 5's) and while No. 10 isn't easy, a 15.3% birdie rate is much higher than the 10% birdie rate for No. 18. Scheffler strung 3+ birdies together in holes 8-11 twice in 2023. (He birdied Hole 9 every round, Hole 8 twice, Hole 10 twice, and Hole 11 twice).

THREE GIVEAWAYS

I’m giving three different prizes for PLAYERS week!!!!!!!!

• $500 Cash

• $200

• A FREE Year of FantasyNational

3 ways to get into the draw for the $500 & Fantasy National Membership, and doing each will get you a ballot (Up to three ballots)

• SUB to Mayo Media Network on YouTube and comment on a PME PLAYERS Video.

MMN YouTube: https://bit.ly/YTMMN

• SUB, RATE (5 Starts), and REVIEW the PME Audio Podcast on Apple and Spotify.

Apple: http://bit.ly/PMEiTunes

Spotify: https://goo.gl/VboemH

For the $200 giveaway, I’ll be picking one person from X (Formally known as Twitter) who retweets and likes videos and articles from my account this week. Everytime you do it, it’s another ballott into the draw. If you RT one of the articles on my X acount for THE PLAYERS it’s worth 5 ballots. so GO CRAZY!!!!

FOLLOW MAYO ON X at THEPME

Past Winners

In March

• 2024: Scottie Scheffler (-20, one clear of the field)

• 2023: Scottie Scheffler (-17, five clear of the field)

• 2022: Cam Smith (-13, one clear of the field)

• 2021: Justin Thomas (-14, one clear of the field)

• 2019: Rory McIlroy (-16, one clear of the field)

In May

• 2018: Webb Simpson (-18, four clear of the field)

• 2017: Si Woo Kim (-10, three clear of the field)

• 2016: Jason Day (-15, four clear of the field)

• 2015: Rickie Fowler (-12, playoff in over Sergio Garcia/Kevin Kisner)

• 2014: Martin Kaymer (-13, one clear of the field)

2024: Scottie Scheffler (+550) (-20, 1 clear of Wyndham Clark, Xander Schauffele & Brian Harman)

• The Top 5 putters for the week all finished T11 or better on the final leaderboard (Theegala and Fitzpatrick overcoming brutal ARG weeks with the flat stick)

• 11 of the Top 12 finishers on the final leaderboard gained ground on the field on Prox 100-125.

2023: Scottie Scheffler (+1000) (-17, 5 clear of Tyrell Hatton)

• Christian Bezuidenhout was the only Top 18 finisher to lose ground OTT (Adam Hadwin was able to finish T-13 despite bleeding 2.2 strokes on the greens thanks to being the third best OTT for the week)

• The Top 5 APP players for the week posted, in order, these finishes on the final leaderboard: 13-3-2-1-3

• Those Top 4 finishers all gained Prox 125-150 yards AND 150-175 yards

• Scheffler was the only player with four rounds in the 60's (his 65 on moving day was his best round and third best on the course that day)

2022: Cam Smith (+3000) (-13, 1 clear of Anirban Lahiri)

• Massive Weather Delays for first few days. The first round didn’t finish until Saturday

• Smith saved his best for Sunday (66), but was under par in all four rounds

• Smith picked up 11.5 strokes with the putter, 2.4 strokes better than anyone else and the only reason he was able to overcome -5.2 strokes OTT

• Nine players gained over 3.5 strokes on approach and picked up at least something with the putter. Eight of them cashed a top-13 paycheck and this was something all three podium finishers accomplished.

• Five of the Top 7 golfers for the week in Prox 200+ finished T13 or better for the week

2021: Justin Thomas (+1800) (-14, 1 clear of Lee Westwood)

• The Top 5 on the Round 1 leaderboard all finished top 10 for the week, but Thomas was the exception: -2 through two rounds, -12 over the final two rounds (64 on moving day)

• JT picked up "just" 1.6 strokes putting. The other top 7 finishers picked up, on average 5.0 strokes with the flat stick.

• Thirteen of the top-16 finishers on final leaderboard gained strokes off the tee (two of the three that did not do that made up for it by being a top-5 approach player for the week

• 15 of the top 16 finishers gained strokes on Par 5's -- Thomas was a week best +8.8 strokes on the Par 5's (two full strokes clear of anyone else in the field)

2019: Rory McIlroy (+1200) (-16, 1 clear of Jim Furyk)

• Rory led after the cut with a Friday 65 and did just enough on Sunday (he shot 70, the three guys under him were all at least 3 shots better)

• Each of the Top 7 finishers gained proximity in either the 175-200 yard or the 200+ yard bucket (McIlroy won by gaining in both)

• Ryan Moore was the only Top 25 finisher to lose Good Drives on the field (Corey Conners was the best in the field for the week at +9.3)

• Dustin Johnson was the only Top 15 finisher to lose strokes putting (six of those golfers gained over four strokes)

Players Championship Winner Lead In Form

2024: Scottie Scheffler won the week previous at Bay Hill and had Top 10 finishes in five of his six starts to begin the year. Previous PLAYERS: Win/55th.

2023: Scottie Scheffler had a win and a Top 12 finish in all of this five starts previous in the year. Previous PLAYERS: 55th/MC

2022: Cam Smith was Top 15 in 4 of 6 events prior to the win. Previous PLAYERS: 17th/56th

2021: Justin Thomas was Top 15 in 8 of 9 events prior to the win. Previous PLAYERS: 35th/11th

2019: Rory McIlroy was Top 6 in 5 straight events prior to the win. Previous PLAYERS: MC/35th

2018: Webb Simpson was Top 21 in 4 straight events prior to the win (he already had 3 Top 5 finishes on his resume for the season). Previous PLAYERS: 16th/66th

2017: Si Woo Kim after WD’s and missed cuts cluttering his early season results, did post a T-22 finish in the lead in event. Previous PLAYERS: T23

2016: Jason Day was Top 10 in 3 of 4 events prior to the win. Previous PLAYERS: MC/T19

FIRST ROUND LEADERS

2024

• 65 - Xander Schauffele (also posted a 65 on Saturday), Wyndham Clark (opened with two 65's, six better than Scheffler), and Rory McIlroy (sporadic week: 65-73-69-72)

• 66 - Matt Fitzpatrick (sub-70 in all four rounds) and Nick Taylor (12 shots better in Rounds 1-2 than Rounds 3-4)

2023

• 64 - Chad Ramey (all over the place: 64-75-68-76)

• 65 - Collin Morikawa (his best round of the week by 6 strokes)

2022

• 66 - Tommy Fleetwood (his best round of the week by 6 strokes) and Tom Hoge (got worse every day: 66-71-72-76)

• 67 - Six way tie, including Anirban Lahiri (finished 2nd for the week, three rounds in the 60's)

2021

• 65 - Sergio Garcia (his best round of the week by 6 strokes)

• 67 - Brian Harman (138 strokes in Rounds 1-2, exactly the same in Rounds 3-4)

NOTES

Although it’s been a year more than a lustrum since THE PLAYERS moved from May to March, it never hurts to reinforce some of the rules:

With water visible on every hole and 92 bunkers scattered across the grounds, there’s a higher degree of variance at TPC Sawgrass than at almost any course. Old School PGA National, 3M, Southwind, and maybe The Open are really the only rivals.

That’s not even factoring in the wind gusts or the lack of defined skill sets required to contend, outside of “Be Scottie Scheffler”. A lot of courses are so long that a lack of distance off the tee ups the difficulty level for shorter smackers and you can simply cross them off your list. Not TPC Sawgrass. Yes, distance is always advantageous on the Par 5s and the longer Par 4s … if you’re not in the water. But even then, we witnessed the game’s most prolific bomber, Bryson DeChambeau, nickel and dime his way around the course in 2021, taking a course management method with irons off the tee ensuring he found the short grass. Since distance plays less of a factor at Sawgrass than most PGA TOUR courses the entire field actually has an opportunity to contend, theoretically.

Strangely, after years of these leaderboards screaming FLORIDA MAN for its insanity, they’ve somewhat normalized of the past few years in the move to March. Each of the winners has been a Major winner. Cam Smith was the only non-Major Champion at the time of his win but would drink from the Claret Jug later that year.

HISTORIC DRAFTKINGS

2024: Paying up worked as long as you made the correct choices. DUH. Four of the Top 9 priced players finished inside the Top 6 while two missed the cut and another two finished outside the Top 60. Only 2 players below $8,000 finished inside the Top 10 in DraftKings Points for the week.

2023: The two highest priced players missed the cut, but the next 11 players in pricing all saw the weekend, with only Justin Thomas and Will Zalatoris finishing outside the Top 20.

2022: Four of the Top 11 in DK pricing missed the cut, but on the bright side, three of those Top 11 reached at least 94 DK points (including 121 from tournament winner, $9,400 Cam Smith)

2021: Paying up worked … or it completely killed you. JT and Bryson were Top 6 on the pricing board and Top 3 in DK points. Great. But … 6 of the other 9 golfers priced over $9,000 failed to play the weekend.

2019: McIlroy won as the 3^rd most expensive golfer in a true stars and scrubs tournament: Three of the Top 8 DK scorers cost 5 figures while four of them cost no more than $7,100.

2018: All 7 golfers that scored north of 100 DK points were priced $7,3000 or cheaper (just 2 of the top-6 in pricing finished better than 20^th in DK points)

2017: Each of the top-5 in DK scoring were priced $7,500 or cheaper (four of them were sub-$7,000)

You’ll need to embrace some discomfort in your DFS lineups this week but maybe not as much as you historically would. Now watch Brice Garnett win.

Since picking a winner is more random than most weeks at The PLAYERS, lean on the one thing that is predictable for DraftKings lineups (kind of): Ownership Projections. See who the masses are gravitating toward, find a soft spot or two in the projections around those players and throw them in your lineups. It certainly won’t guarantee success, but it’s a way to give yourself a more direct path to victory in a large DraftKings tournament. Tambo and I will be LIVE Wednesday at 9am ET on YouTube and X if you have lineup questions.

Here are the scoring leaders and their ownership in the DraftKings Millionaire Maker over the years. The chalk had some of the pieces you needed, but was full of landmines as well.

2024

1. $12,800 Scottie Scheffler 34.8%

2. $11,300 Xander Schauffele 9.5%

3. $7,900 Brian Harman 13.2%

4. $8,200 Matthew Fitzpatrick 3.7%

5. $9,700 Wyndham Clark 7.8%

6. $8,000 Si Woo Kim 11.5%

7. $9,800 Hideki Matsuyama 12.6%

8. $9,300 Ludvig Aberg 11.8%

9. $8,700 Sahith Theegala 8.8%

10. $5,600 Sam Ryder 1.9%

Results of highest owner players

1. $12,800 Scottie Scheffler 34.8% (Win)

2. $9,900 Will Zalatoris 19.3% (MC)

3. $7,800 Tom Hoge 17.3% (T54)

4. $8,600 Russell Henley 14.9% (MC)

5. $10,600 Justin Thomas 14.5% (MC)

6. $7,900 Brian Harman 13.2% (T2)

7. $9,200 Sam Burns 13.1% (T45)

8. $8,300 Corey Conners 12.8% (T11)

9. $9,600 Max Homa 12.6% (T64)

10. $9,800 Hideki Matsuyama 12.6% (T6)

2023

1. $10,600 Scottie Scheffler 23.5%

2. $7,400 Tom Hoge 4.8%

3. $8,300 Tyrrell Hatton 17.2%

4. $8,400 Hideki Matsuyama 3.6%

5. $8,900 Viktor Hovland 24.9%

6. $7,300 Min Woo Lee 1.5%

7. $6,600 Justin Suh 4.4%

8. $9,000 Sungjae Im 9.7%

9. $7,000 Cameron Davis 0.4%

10. $6,200 David Lingmerth 0.3%

Here are the results of the highest owned players…

1. Jason Day 30.5% (T19)

2. Justin Thomas 26.7% (T60)

3. Viktor Hovland 24.9% (T3)

4. Scottie Scheffler 23.5% (Win)

5. Keegan Bradley 23.5% (MC)

6. Max Homa 21.5% (T6)

7. Rory McIlroy 19.5% (MC)

8. Keith Mitchell 17.8% (T35)

9. Patrick Cantlay 17.3% (T19)

10. Tyrrell Hatton 17.2% (2nd)

2022 was a bit of a different story:

1. $9,400 Cameron Smith 9.6%

2. $6,100 Anirban Lahiri 0.05%

3. $7,100 Kevin Kisner 1.5%

4. $7,400 Paul Casey 6.9%

5. $10,100 Viktor Hovland 13.7%

6. $6,900 Keegan Bradley 7.2%

7. $7,400 Russell Henley 13.3%

8. $9,800 Dustin Johnson 5.9%

9. $6,900 Patton Kizzire 0.88%

Here are the results of the highest owned players…

1. $7,700 Matt Fitzpatrick 25.2% (Missed Cut)

2. $8,800 Daniel Berger 24.1% (T13)

3. $10,700 Collin Morikawa 24.1% (Missed Cut)

4. $10,400 Justin Thomas 22.7% (T33)

5. $9,200 Scottie Scheffler 20.6% (T55)

6. $9,000 Patrick Cantlay 17.0% (Missed Cut)

7. $11,100 Jon Rahm 16.8% (T55)

8. $7,200 Talor Gooch 16.8% (Missed Cut)

9. $8,100 Billy Horschel 16.1% (Missed Cut)

Obviously, going into the week, everyone, myself included, thought these were almost all excellent plays. If you knew who was definitely going to win and finish at the top of the leaderboard, you wouldn’t be reading this, I wouldn’t be writing this; we’d own private islands with all our winnings.

Stacked fields like this, and major championships, require you to embrace game theory over your instincts as there’s such little difference between the players in each range. We can debate who is better between Sam Burns and Shane Lowry all we want, but it’s probably smarter to admit they have about the same probability to actually win this week. If one is 5x more owned than the other, it’s probably in your best interest to pivot to the other.

The tiny greens at TPC Sawgrass are a regular occurrence at Pete Dye-designed courses. It’s why Strokes Gained: Around The Green (0.35/round) has been about as impactful as Strokes Gained: Off The Tee (0.41/round) for the Top 10 finishers over the past six years. For reference, Strokes Gained: Approach has been almost three times more important to the Top 10 finishers.

Worth noting, with so many shaved surfaces, players with weak short games will have the ability to putt from off the green. Unfortunately, I don’t have access to the numbers for SG: Texas Wedge.

All Pete Dye Courses on the PGA TOUR

• TPC Sawgrass (THE PLAYERS Championship)

• Harbour Town Links (RBC Heritage)

• TPC River Highlands (Travelers Championship)

• TPC Louisiana (Zurich Classic)

• TPC Stadium Course at PGA West (American Express)

• Whistling Straits (2015, 2010, 2005 PGA Championship)

• Kiawah Island (2012/2021 PGA Championship)

The best players on Dye courses since the beginning of the 2023 season, per round, have been…

GET 20% OFF FANTASY NATIONAL STATS/TOOLS TODAY!!!!!

Beyond Dye courses, success at the Wyndham Championship has proven to have a correlation. Henrik Stenson, Webb Simpson, Sergio Garcia, Davis Love III and Si WOO Kim have all won at Sedgefield CC in the past decade, and those five have also claimed THE PLAYERS at one point in their careers. Events like the Wyndham, Sony Open and Heritage are prime spots to identify sleepers from the bottom of the list as they generally do not see an influx for the top-tier talent. Well, Heritage does now, in this, the year of our Lord, 2025.

If you’re searching for higher-end events, TPC Southwind is similar, thanks to the amount of water lurking around the grounds. Justin Thomas won that event in 2020, while Hideki, Xander and Scheffler all finished inside the Top 4 in 2024. Phoenix is another spot to seek out if you’re looking for more comps. Three of past six winners of the WM Phoenix (Scheffler, Rickie, Webb) have also won at Sawgrass. Both are TPC tracks and both have dormant Bermudagrass on the greens.

As with most courses, Strokes Gained: Approach will likely be the deciding factor for the week. Generate that many birdie opportunities, and eventually, you’ll start making some of them. Plus, a great approach game generally means you’re spending less time chipping or taking the Nestea Plunge at Sawgrass.

Strokes Gained: Approach by THE PLAYERS Championship winner

• 2024: Scheffler +6.4 (7th)

• 2023: Scheffler +7.6 (4th)

• 2022: Smith +6.7 (5th)

• 2021: Thomas +6.5 (5th)

• 2019: Rory +6.5 (6th)

• 2018: Simpson -0.7 (92nd)

• 2017 Si WOOOOO +4.1 (16th)

• 2016: Day +5.6 (9th)

• 2015: Fowler +6.3 (3rd)

• 2014: Kaymer +6.0 (4th)

• 2013: Woods +8.0 (2nd)

• 2012: Kuchar +4.8 (5th)

So far in the 2025 season, over the past 24 rounds, per Fantasy National, the SG: APP leaders per rounds are:

Weather

If you have any familiarity with this tournament, you know not to invest too much money or finalize picks before getting the tee times and consulting the weather. I’ve been correct in predicting when the wind is going to hit in the near past. My implementation of said information?

Nothing like nailing THE PLAYERS weather three years ago, only to see them delay action and force all the guys I rostered into the worst conditions of the year. Fun stuff watching your picks yuck it up on the 17th tee box hitting ball after ball into the water while shurgging their shoulders.

There’s never going to be a definitive answer, and as we’ve seen, even when one wave appears to possess an advantage and you stack it correctly: Guys play poorly in good conditions and well in bad conditions all the time. You can decide what’s best for you, and I think that strategy is dependent on how many bets you plan to make or DraftKings lineups along with the size of the contests.

Generally, since I’ve seen the weather advantage flip so many times, lean hard into the wave which has the projected advantage, but don’t be afraid to commit a lesser percentage of your lineups to the opposite stack, either. If you’re wrong (which is probably the most predictable outcome this week) then you’ll still have outs with a far more narrow path to the top since it’s the unpopular side.

WIND TOWER: Palm Valley, ICWW

Picks

Again, I wouldn’t invest too much money into THE PLAYERS until tee times are released and you get a better sense of the weather. Especially for the short odds favorites. Grabbing some hefty numbers down the board makes more sense since you’ll likely get more inflated numbers early in the week.

Sepp Straka +6000 — Yes, this would be a big step up in class for Straka against his three other wins (AMEX, JDC, HONDA), but he fits the lead-in form criteria and is a perfect skill match. Zee Austrian has previously won in Florida and at a Pete Dye course while positing five Top 15 finishes in his past six starts, including a win. Additionally, Straka’s one of the more accurate players in the field, sits Top 5 in approach over the past 24 rounds and is tops of all players in opportunities gained.

Nick Taylor +12000 — Taylor’s lack of success at Sawgrass is concurrently confusing while making complete sense. The Canadian is basically Ricky Bobby: If he’s not first, he’s last. OK, maybe not that extreme, but for a guy with five PGA wins he tends to implode in stronger fields. That makes sense for most of the Major and signature events, but Sawgrass is in the wheelhouse for style of course he does his best work; Sony, Wyndham, Phoenix. One of the most accurate players off the tee, Taylor enters with a win and Top 25 finishes in five of his last six events, and has actually gained +3.6/+4.8/+8.2 SG:APP in three of his past four starts at THE PLAYERS. That jibes with his current play as he’s Top 10 in approach, 450-500 yard Par 4s, 5-10’ putting, and birdies or better gained over the past 24 rounds. Plus, we’ve seen he has the stones when he gets into Sunday contention. Something that can’t be said for most players above 100/1.