THE PLAYERS Cheatsheet: Bets, Picks, Weather, DraftKings Notes

Mayo Media

Mar 12, 2025

PLAYERS BETS

WINNER

Aberg +1900
Xander +2800
J. Thomas +3300
Straka +6000
MacIntyre +8000 (With 8 Places)
N. Taylor +12500 (With 8 Places)
N. Hojgaard +17500 (With 8 Places)

TOP GERMAN

Schmit over Jaeger +100

FIRST ROUND LEADER

N. Taylor +8000 (With 5 Places)
Schmid +16000 (With 5 Places + FRL Top 20 +550)
Hoge +17000 (With 5 Places)

TOP 40 PARLAY

Below

LIV GOLF SINGAPORE

Burmester +2200
Mito +12500 (With 5 Places)

PLAYERS Championship Final Bets, Weather, One and Done

Xander Schauffele +2800 & Justin Thomas +3300

Yesterday, I wrote out how my final play was going to come down to a drifting Rory at +1500 or the combo back of X and JT, as they too slipped down the betting board. It’s the same amount of money for the same return to bet on either side. Now that I have chosen to push Rory to the side, he’ll win by 10.

Xander’s ball striking was solid and better than most the field at API, but his short game was in shambles. This isn’t new for players returning from a long layoff. Hands and touch are usually the last thing to come back. Fortunately, his short game numbers got better by the round and if I think he’s close to 100% then this number is too good to pass on.

Much has been made about how terrible Thomas’ putter has been, yet, I think people are somewhat overstating it. They sure weren’t last week, he was brutal on the greens. But for 2025, he’s actually picked up strokes on the field in three of his five starts. And we’ve seen far worse putters turn their fortunes around on the greens for a week. If he can do that, you get the 5th best approach player so far this year, and the one who generates the second most birdie/Eagle opportunities inside 15-feet to go along with on the world’s premiere short games.

The combo pack of the two felt more comforting than just a YOLO Rory wager.

Robert MacIntyre +8000— Bob’s sort of in the JT camp. Dude bleeds strokes putting whenever you need him to make a 10-footer. Still, he’s one of the few players in the field to rank inside the Top 30 in approach, opportunities gained, birdies or better gained and T2G. He’s posted T11 finishes in two of his past three starts and looking forward to the weekend full of wind, I want at least one player who has plenty of experience in damaging elements. Hello, Scotland.

PLAYERS BEST BETS, FIRST ROUND LEADER, NATIONALITY PROPS

Ludvig Aberg +1900 — There has been a solid trend line for PLAYERS winners since it has moved to March. Recent form truly does matter. Well, that an iron play. Making Aberg a tad more difficult to figure out. The Swede got sick at Farmers after holding the first round lead and sank on the weekend, then posted a disastrous third round at API which throws off a lot of his approach numbers. He still came T22 btw after going low on Sunday: Keeping him on the edge of the PLAYERS winner trend line. In his other three starts we got a Win, T5 and WD. If you’re willing to give him a pass on that Saturday debacle at Bay Hill, Aberg’s primed to pick up a another victory, building off T8 a year ago in his Sawgrass debut.

Sepp Straka +6000 — Yes, this would be a big step up in class for Straka against his three other wins, but he fits the lead-in form criteria and is a skill match. He’s won in Florida and at a Pete Dye course already while positing five Top 15 finishes in his past six starts, including the victory at AMEX`. Additionally, Straka’s one of the more accurate players in the field, sits Top 5 in approach over the past 24 rounds, and is tops of all players in opportunities gained.

Nick Taylor 125 (With 8 Places) — Taylor’s lack of success at Sawgrass is concurrently confusing while making complete sense. The Canadian is basically Ricky Bobby: If he’s not first, he’s last. OK, maybe it’s not that extreme, but for a guy with five PGA wins he tends to implode in stronger field events. That makes sense for most of the Majors and signature events, but Sawgrass is in the wheelhouse for style of course he does his best work; Sony, Wyndham, Phoenix. One of the most accurate players off the tee, Taylor enters with a win and Top 25 finishes in five of his past six events, and has actually gained +3.6/+4.8/+8.2 SG:APP in three of his past four starts at THE PLAYERS. That jibes with his current play has he’s Top 10 in approach, 450-500 yard Par 4s, 5-10’ putting, and birdies or better gained over the past 24 rounds. Plus, we’ve seen he has the stones when he gets into Sunday contention. Something that can’t be said for most players above 100/1.

Nicolai Hojgaard +17500 (With 8 Places) — Look, I’ve been betting Nicolai every week, and every week he flashes, then disappoints. But the irons and putter have been excellent, no reason to back off now while the number keeps rising. And it’s not like he can’t beat an elite field, my guy won the DP World Tour Championship in 2023.

TOP GERMAN Matti Schmid (+100) over Stephan Jaeger — Schmid has done solid work at Pete Dye tracks in his career and actually comes in hot with Top 20s in each of his past two starts. And showed out in his debut a year ago posting a T26. While Jaeger is the better overall player, I just hate his skill match for Sawgrass. He’s made the cut just once in three tries (T44 in 2023), and while his ball striking will probably be decent, I tend to favor him at longer courses where accuracy means less and his scrambling can take over. Oh, he’s been dealing with a bad cases of the LEFTS off the tee the past month too. Gonna be tough to scramble from a lake.

FIRST ROUND LEADERS

Nick Taylor +8000 (With 5 Places), Matti Schmid +16000 (With 5 places + Top 20 FRL +550) & Tom Hoge +17000 (With 5 Places)

Both are in the (currently) better weather as a part of the am wave and both flash iron play to go toe-to-toe with the best players in the world… for one round. Hoge’s been broken since Pebble Beach, hence why he’s so low on the odds board, but don’t forget he was FRL at Sentry to open the year against all the best players. Oh, he broke the course record at Sawgrass two years ago with a 62 too.

I love Taylor as a dark horse winner, Top 10/20 this week, but he’s entering Sawgrass third in approach over the past 24 rounds and missed FRL by a stroke Thursday at The PLAYERS last year. If he can’t win the whole thing, maybe he can just win the first round? Or at finish round one inside the Top 5. That’d be nice.

TOP 40 Parlay

Because: Fun! I also played this as a series of 3-leg parlays as well.

WEATHER

There’s no discernible weather split between the tee times. It’s colder Thursday am but the wind will be down and the wind picks up a bit as it gets hotter. But nothing appears to be all that damaging. Then you get to Saturday and Sunday, and the wind are a commin. There’s even a little bit of rain now forecasted for Sunday afternoon.

There’s not much yo can do on DraftKings besides get your players through and pray. Although, Saturday and Sunday showdown can be kind of interesting if the wind stays down for the first players on the Saturday. Which could also be a betting angle. If there’s a good player or someone striking it well but not putting out early Saturday am, they may have a chance to make a move at a huge number. Kinda like what Keegan did Sunday at API. But there’s a chance they can catch up by posting a number and end up in on the final 5 groups Sunday. So keep a bullet or two in the chamber to fire.

WIND TOWER: Palm Valley, ICWW

TEE TIMES

UNDERDOG PICKS

I’m prepared for Hideki to make me look foolish but here we are. And I’m used to getting made look like a fool at this point anyway. Scan the Underdog lobby for a 60% profit boost token btw. That’s what I did when I made this one. And if you’re new, Underdog will give you a FREE SQUARE to tack on to this and double the odds. Try that out.

TAIL THIS ENTRY (or fade) & Use code “MAYO” at underdog for a FREE PICK and deposit bonus up to $1000

FREE CASH GIVEAWAYS

I’m giving away three different prizes for PLAYERS week!!!!!!!!

$500 Cash
$200
A FREE Year of FantasyNational

3 ways to get into the draw for the $500 & Fantasy National Membership, and doing each will get you a ballot (Up to three ballots)

SUB to Mayo Media Network on YouTube and comment on a PME PLAYERS Video.

MMN YouTube: https://bit.ly/YTMMN

SUB, RATE (5 Starts), and REVIEW the PME Audio Podcast on Apple and Spotify.

Apple: http://bit.ly/PMEiTunes

Spotify: https://goo.gl/VboemH

For the $200 giveaway, I’ll be picking one person from X (Formally known as Twitter) who retweets and likes videos and articles from my account this week. Everytime you do it, it’s another ballott into the draw. If you RT one of the articles on my X acount for THE PLAYERS it’s worth 5 ballots. so GO CRAZY!!!!

DRAFTKINGS

Per usual, Tambo and I broke down the entire slate and made lineups on the Wednesday show.

PLAYERS DraftKings Picks, Lineups, Ownership

Honestly, no event has taken my money on DraftKings as much as THE PLAYERS in my lifetime of playing on the platform, so feel free to fade me.

Ownership projections have turned into ownership guesses in 2025 with so much randomness each week in where pack of people are deciding to land. From what I can tell, Scheffler, Morikawa, Straka, Fleetwood, and Aberg are going to be the most popular in their ranges.

Down the board, Nick Taylor, Aaron Rai, Denny, and Keegan pop in the 7Ks. While Michael Kim, Doug Ghim, Alex Smalley, and Joel Dahmen all seem to be more popular than their contemporaries in the 5K range.

None of that means you need to fade any of them, just means you need to mix it up how you play them if you want to.

I build in 2 sets of lineups using the Fantasy National lineup generator one set capped at Max McGreevy (6600) as my cheap player. Then a larger set with a bunch of guys below him to build stars and scrubs lineups.

At the Top I went full fade on Scheffler, Morikawa, Fleetwood, and Hideki and didn’t use any of those semi-popular $5K players.

This is what my sub-7K player pool looks like:

(BTW, if you use my code and get the monthly deal at Fantasy National right now, it will give you everything you need for the PLAYERS through the end of The Masters. It’s the perfect sweet spot to take advantage of that.)

GET 20% OFF FANTASY NATIONAL STATS/TOOLS TODAY!!!!!

Hopefully we win some cash at Sawgrass. But I’m pivoting back to NFL Thursday with a BANGER episode recapping free agency… with Cust and Cam.