LIVE CHAT
At 715pm ET On Mayo Media Network. Set the reminder and come ask away. I’ll be covering final picks, updated weather and ownership
REMINDER: LIVE: THE PLAYERS 2024 Final Picks, Updated Weather, Viewer Chat Q & A at 715pm ET
PLAYERS COVERAGE HOT LINKS
WATCH: DFS Picks, Lineups, Final Bets, Ownership, Weather | The Players Lineup Draft
READ: THE PLAYERS DFS Strategy, Play/Fade, Previous Year Info
WATCH: Players Championship Picks, Bets, One and Done
READ: Picks, Preview, Weather, Tee Times
WATCH: PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP Picks, Research, Guess The Odds | New Caddie/Player, Scouting Sawgrass
READ: THE PLAYERS Research, Preview, MODEL POWER RANKINGS
The Players BETS
aka the fastest way to lose money this week!
Justin Thomas 25/1 — has been plagued by a few terrible nines which have cost him wins so far in 2024. So, he’s been close, and why not return to the winners circle from a former championship at a happy place. Since missing the playoffs last year, he’s reeled off Top 12 finishes in five of his past six with the only hiccup coming a month ago at RIV. And he’s posted all these results without any spike weeks with his iron play. He’s been good, just not winner great. But it seems like he’s building towards it.
Hideki Matsuyama 42/1 — I used by 30% boost and got Hideki up to 42. It was between him at 42 and Finau to 88. It’s just too hard to ignore his form atm. What this means is: After fading him a week ago and actively betting against him and watching him tear it up, now I’m on him, he’ll WD 5 mins before his tee time. This is how this goes.
Sam Burns 45/1 — Masochism in betting form is wagering on Sam Burns this week. I’m unconcerned about his Bay Hill water addiction (he did go to LSU, there’s a chance he’s related to Bobby Boucher), he an nail it back if he needs to off the tee at Sawgrass, but frankly, his driver has been a WEAPON at multiple times this year: AMEX, Phoenix, RIV. And, it’s always nice to have someone who can putt for once. Burns hasn’t dropped strokes on the green since Memphis last August.
Harman. 75/1 & Henley 60/1 — I got roped in after their performance at Bay Hill, but obviously both are great fits on skill profile. And clearly I wasn’t the only one who thinks so, both these numbers I bet them at are long gone.
Tom Hoge 90/1 — The Path is pretty simply for Hollywood Hoge, keep the same ball striking (1st in SG: APP over last 24 Rounds) but not chip himself out of this tournament (118th in SG; ATG over last 12 rounds). He showcased how low he can go can go at Sawgrass after his Saturday 62 a year ago, and he enters in far better form this time around. If he keeps up that same approach play, theoretically, he won’t actually have to chip that often. And if he does, there are enough areas around the course to utilize the Texas wedge if needed.
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15 seconds for a chance at $1000. That’s +EV. That is better than any bet I’ll ever give out.
BOMBS
Since Bet365 (and other places too) offer “each way” selections, I decided to go this route for some bombs. Essentially, I look at these instead of playing Top 10s when you eight places. You’re getting the upside of a win outright with and only giving up two places (10 to 8) for far better odds. For example, let’s say I bet Grillo $20 with the each way. $10 goes towards his 110/1 to win for $1100 and $10 to his Top 8 at 1/5 those odds. So, 22/1 for a win of $220 if he finishes in the Top 8. If you simply took that $20 and bet him Top 10, which is +650, you’d only win $130. I prefer to exchange the two extra places for the better upside.
Emiliano Grillo 110/1 — Four T20 finishes so far in 2024, including a Top 10 at API a week ago, and no missed cuts is showing a level of consistency unfamiliar for the Argentinian. He remains one of the most accurate drivers on TOUR, a big bonus at Sawgrass, and the iron play has been incredibly solid, but it’s the putter that has elevated his game. As many of who’ve been betting on Grillo for years know, dude can putt himself out of a tournament ASAP. But since last year’s API (when he dropped -9.2 stroke over four rounds) he’s been one of the bets guys on TOUR. In eight starts in 2024, he’s lost strokes just once with the flat stick, shining +1.9 SG: PUTT per start over his last five. Of note, he can most definitely still chip himself out of this tournament.
Thursday H2H Matchups
We made an Underdog Entry for Round 1 doing H2H matchups on the best bets show between Byron, Coley, and I. Come sweat along with us and try and 6x your money…
CLICK HERE TO GET THE EXACT UNDERDOG ENTRY ON YOUR SCREEN
MISS CUT PARLAY
Now, if you’re really committed to losing money (Like Me), it’s tough to hear the masses discuss how volatile this course can be and how anyone can explode on any hole and not try to take advantage. I just picked the seven favorites in the tournament and parlayed them all to miss the cut. I also, did a round robin of 3s for these seven guys as well, meaning, if 3 of the seven MC, I’ll get the combo of their odds as a winner. I’m pretty sure you understand how round robin bets work, if not, you’re not likely to make the bet in the first place. Probably sensible tbh.
WEATHER
There doesn’t appear to be any wave advantage I can see. That didn’t stop me from double stacking both sides of the wave, as I do every week. I went into more detail to WHY on the DK Show Wednesday, but it’s a great way to get off of the chalk $7K guys if you want to build around Scottie.
WIND TOWER: Palm Valley, ICWW
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DraftKings/Tee Times
As mentioned, I stacked up both sides of the wave and what I really noticed was: Most of the popular expensive plays are PM/AM and the value guys are predominately AM/PM. So, If you want to use Hoge, Mitchell, Si WOO, Scott or Grillo, you’ll naturally have to play them with Rory/X/VIK/Cantlay/Aberg if you do the wave stack, thus making your lineups pretty unique off the hop even with the mid-range chalk.
WATCH: DK Picks, Lineups, Ownership, Weather
I don’t have a great beat on ownership this week. Scottie could come in anywhere from 25%-45% in large field GPPs depending on how comfortable people are down in the pricing top make him work with another decently expensive player. So, my guesses are:
Scheffler 32%
Thomas 24%
Hoge 22%
Zalatoris 19%
Even that doesn’t look right typing it out.
Good Luck this week. And join The PME tomorrow for an NFL free agency recap unlike any other. How is Cust feeling about his QB running for VP, maybe?
— PM