THE PLAYERS Picks, Preview, Weather, Tee Times
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The Players Championship
Field
144 Players
Cut: Top 65 and Ties after 36 Holes
First Tee: Thursday, March 14
Defending Champion: Scottie Scheffler
The PGA TOUR wants to promote their “signature events” as “the best of the best”, yet when it comes to their biggest event of the year, it’s a full field of 144 players with half them getting cut. Curious.
Everyone of note is playing beside Tiger Woods and the LIV guys.
Key Stats
Strokes Gained: Approach
Recent Form
Par 4s Gained
Fairways Gained
Bogey Avoidance
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Course
TPC Sawgrass
Yardage: 7,189
Par: 72
Greens: Poa Trivialis overseed .100”
Bunkers: 92
Holes Water is in Play: 18
Green Size: 5,500 sq. ft.
Greens listed as TifEagle bermudagrass overseeded with Poa Trivialis/velvet bentgrass previously.
Par 3's (4): Average Distance - 183 yards
- Four of the top five par rates (the 237-yard #8 has a 24.9% bogey rate, 3rd highest)
- Scheffler won last season ... he had 11 birdies on his week card before he birdied a Par 3 (Hole 8 on Saturday)
Par 4's (10): Average Distance - 433 yards
- The toughest two holes on the course are Par 4's on the Back-9 (Holes 14 and 18, the only two holes with a bogey rate of 25%+ ... they both have a double-or-worse rate north of 4%)
- Scheffler and Hatton gained SG: Par 4 in every distance bucket last season (1-2 finishers)
Par 5's (4): Average Distance - 554 yards
- Four of the five easiest holes (three have a birdie-or-better rate over 39%)
- Finishing positions for the top 4 in SG:Par 5 last season: 1st-T-3rd-5th-T-19th
Holes 11-16 might need a name from the fantasy community. Over that stretch, three of the four easiest holes pop up and only one truly tough hole
2022: Cam Smith was -8 on those holes with a pair of birdie streaks (-5 on all other holes)
2021: Justin Thomas was -7 on those holes (-7 on all other holes)
2019: Rory McIlroy was -9 on those holes (-7 on all other holes)
2018: Webb Simpson was -12 on those holes with a pair of birdie streaks (-6 on all other holes
DraftKings Showdown Trends
There will likely be an influx of casual players for this event, so it's a good time to leverage this angle. Hole 18 is the toughest on the course (2.5x more likely to bogey than to birdie), making a back-to-front build a tough sell. If you can get that hole (462-yard Par 4), holes 1-2 are very gettable, but I prefer front-to-back. Going that way, you get access to two of the five easiest holes (9 and 11, both Par 5's) and while #10 isn't easy, a 15.3% birdie rate isn't the end of the world. Scheffler strung 3+ birdies together in holes 8-11 twice last season (he birdied Hole 9 every round, Hole 8 twice, Hole 10 twice, and Hole 11 twice).
Past Winners
In March
2023: Scottie Scheffler -17
2022: Cameron Smith -13
2021: Justin Thomas -14
2019: Rory McIlroy -16
In May
2018: Webb Simpson -18
2017: Si Woo Kim -10
2016: Jason Day -15
2015: Rickie Fowler -12
2014: Martin Kaymer -13
2013: Tiger Woods -13
2023: Scottie Scheffler (-17, 5 clear of Tyrell Hatton)
-The only player with four rounds in the 60's (his 65 on moving day was his best round and third best on the course that day)
- The four finishers that cashed a top 3 paycheck were four of the five best in approach for the week (Morikawa was the exception ... he was the best in the field in SG:APP, but finished 12th because he bled 2.6 strokes on the greens)
- Those top 4 finishers all gained Prox 125-150 yards AND 150-175 yards
2022: Cam Smith (-13, 1 clear of Anirban Lahiri)
Saved his best for Sunday (66), but was under par in all four rounds
Nine players gained over 3.5 strokes on approach and picked up at least something with the putter. Eight of them cashed a top-13 paycheck and this was something all three podium finishers accomplished.
2021: Justin Thomas (-14, 1 clear of Lee Westwood)
The top 5 on the Round 1 leaderboard all finished top 10 for the week, but Thomas was the exception: -2 through two rounds, -12 over the final two rounds (64 on moving day)
Thirteen of the top-16 finishers on final leaderboard gained strokes off the tee (two of the three that did not do that made up for it by being a top-5 approach player for the week
2019: Rory McIlroy (-16, 1 clear of Jim Furyk)
Rory led after the cut with a Friday 65 and did just enough on Sunday (he shot 70, the three guys under him were all at least 3 shots better)
Each of the top-7 finishers gained proximity in either the 175-200 yard or the 200+ yard bucket (McIlory won by gaining in both)
Players Championship Winner Lead In Form
2023: Scottie Scheffler had a win and a Top 12 finish in all of this five starts previous in the year. Previous PLAYERS: 55th/MC
2022: Cam Smith was Top 15 in 4 of 6 events prior to the win. Previous PLAYERS: 17th/56th
2021: Justin Thomas was Top 15 in 8 of 9 events prior to the win. Previous PLAYERS: 35th/11th
2019: Rory McIlroy was Top 6 in 5 straight events prior to the win. Previous PLAYERS: MC/35th
2018: Webb Simpson was Top 21 in 4 straight events prior to the win (he already had 3 Top 5 finishes on his resume for the season). Previous PLAYERS: 16th/66th
2017: Si Woo Kim after WD’s and missed cuts cluttering his early season results, did post a T-22 finish in the lead in event. Previous PLAYERS: T23
2016: Jason Day was top-10 in 3 of 4 events prior to the win. Previous PLAYERS: MC/T19
PLAYERS PICKS SHOW
Cust, joined to give his Top 3 picks for THE PLAYERS. Gotta say, I don’t hate them. Afterwards, Geoff and I went through the whole field making our picks…
WATCH: Players Championship Picks, Bets, One and Done
Custs Picks
Zalatoris
Knapp
Glover
MORE PLAYERS HOT LINKS
WATCH: PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP Picks, Research, Guess The Odds | New Caddie/Player, Scouting Sawgrass
READ: THE PLAYERS Research, Preview, MODEL POWER RANKINGS
COURSE/STAT NOTES
The tiny greens at TPC Sawgrass are a regular occurrence at Pete Dye-designed courses. It’s why Strokes Gained: Around The Green (0.35/round) has been just as important as Strokes Gained: Off The Tee (0.39/round) for the Top 10 finishers over the past six years. For reference, Strokes Gained: Approach has been almost three times more important to the Top 10 finishers.
All Pete Dye Courses on the PGA TOUR
TPC Sawgrass (THE PLAYERS Championship)
Harbour Town Links (RBC Heritage)
TPC River Highlands (Travelers Championship)
TPC Louisiana (Zurich Classic)
Austin Country Club (2016/2017/2018/2019 Match Play)
TPC Stadium Course at La Quinta (American Express)
Crooked Stick (2012/2016 BMW Championship)
Whistling Straits (2015, 2010, 2005 PGA Championship)
Kiawah Island (2012/2021 PGA Championship)
The best players on Dye courses since the beginning of the 2022 season, per round, have been…
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Beyond Dye courses, success at the Wyndham Championship has proven to have a correlation. Henrik Stenson, Webb Simpson, Sergio Garcia, Davis Love III and Si WOO Kim have all won at Sedgefield CC in the past decade, and those five have also claimed THE PLAYERS at one point in their careers. Events like the Wyndham, Sony Open and Heritage are prime spots to identify sleepers from the bottom of the list as they generally do not see an influx for the top-tier talent.
If you’re searching for higher-end events, TPC Southwind is similar, thanks to the amount of water lurking around the grounds. Justin Thomas won that event in 2020, while Lucas Glover won it a year ago.
As with most courses, Strokes Gained: Approach will likely be the deciding factor for the week. Generate that many birdie opportunities, and eventually, you’ll start making some of them. Plus, a great approach game generally means you’re spending less time chipping or taking the Nestea Plunge at Sawgrass.
Strokes Gained: Approach by THE PLAYERS Championship winner
2023: Scheffler +7.6 (4th)
2022: Smith +6.7 (5th)
2021: Thomas +6.5 (5th)
2019: Rory +6.5 (6th)
2018: Simpson -0.7 (92nd)
2017 Si WOOOOO +4.1 (16th)
2016: Day +5.6 (9th)
2015: Fowler +6.3 (3rd)
2014: Kaymer +6.0 (4th)
2013: Woods +8.0 (2nd)
2012: Kuchar +4.8 (5th)
So far in the 2024 season, over the past 24 rounds, per Fantasy National, the SG: APP leaders per rounds are:
Scheffler
Pavon
Hoge
CBEZ
Finau
Scott
Novak
Morikawa
Knapp
Carson Young
Kirk
Lowry
Xander
Glover
Zalatoris
NEW FANTASY NATIONAL OFFERING
The BEST DEAL on Fantasy National of the year is THIS WEEK!!!! Any monthly membership this week will take you through the commencment of The Masters. Capitalize on that and game the calendar to your advantage. And get 20% OFF for doing so.
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Not only that, but starting Thursday morring, there will be a banner at the top of the Fantasy National page inviting you to come join the beta test for the new Fantasy National Leaderboard APP. It’s currently for iPhone only right now, but we’re excited to share it with you before it goes live.
It’s not 100% complete at the moment, but you’ll be able to use it to track the leaderboard in as close to real time as possible. We’ve been working a long time on this APP and really think it’s exactly what people are looking for. Essentially a good version of the PGA TOUR App. Here’s a quick look at what it looks like:
Weather
If you have any familiarity with this tournament, you know not to invest too much money or finalize picks before getting the tee times and consulting the weather. I’ve been correct in predicting when the wind is going to hit recently. My implementation…
Nothing like nailing THE PLAYERS weather two years ago, only to see them delay action and force all the guys I rostered into the worst conditions of the year. Fun stuff watching your picks yuck it up on the 17th tee box hitting ball after ball into the water.
There’s never going to be a definitive answer, and as we’ve seen, even when one wave appears to possess an advantage. Guys play poorly in good conditions and well in bad conditions all the time. You can decide what’s best for you, and I think that strategy is dependent on how many lineups you’re playing and the size of the contests. Generally, since I’ve seen the weather advantage flip so many times, lean harder into the wave which has the projected advantage, but don’t be afraid to commit a lesser percentage of your lineups to the opposite stack, either. If you’re wrong, which is probably the thing easiest to predict, then you’ll still have outs with a far more narrow path to the top since it’s the unpopular side.
Fortunately, despite still being days away, the weather looks fairly friendly for Sawgrass.
WIND TOWER: Palm Valley, ICWW
Picks
Justin Thomas 25/1 — has been plagued by a few terrible nines which have cost him wins so far in 2024. So, he’s been close, and why not return to the winners circle from a former championship at a happy place. Since missing the playoffs last year, he’s reeled off Top 12 finishes in five of his past six with the only hiccup coming a month ago at RIV. And he’s posted all these results without any spike weeks with his iron play. He’s been good, just not winner great. But it seems like he’s building towards it.
Emiliano Grillo 110/1 (8 Places) — Four T20 finishes so far in 2024, including a Top 10 at API a week ago, and no missed cuts is showing a level of consistency unfamiliar for the Argentinian. He remains one of the most accurate drivers on TOUR, a big bonus at Sawgrass, and the iron play has been incredibly solid, but it’s the putter that has elevated his game. As many of who’ve been betting on Grillo for years know, dude can putt himself out of a tournament ASAP. But since last year’s API (when he dropped -9.2 stroke over four rounds) he’s been one of the bets guys on TOUR. In eight starts in 2024, he’s lost strokes just once with the flat stick, shining +1.9 SG: PUTT per start over his last five. Of note, he can most definitely still chip himself out of this tournament.
Austin Eckroat 175/1 (8 Places) — EckGOAT faltered a bit at API (T36) but remained HOT on approach. He’s now averaging +5.1 SG: APP per start in his last three. He’s Top 20 on the year in accuracy and just showed an incredible amount of fortitude during his close out win at PGA National. There’s no one else in the field whose form and odds are at such a mismatch this week.
Other Bets In so Far:
Henley 60/1
Hoge 90/1
Pavon 125/1 (8 Places)
TEE TIMES
I don’t why exactly this is the case, but…
Back Tuesday with an in-depth look at previous years DK ownership and performance, along with Ben Coley, Byron Lindeque and the Players Best Bets show.
— PM