The Open FINAL Bets, DK Ownership, Weather
OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP CONTENT
Bets/One and Done/CURSED!!!!
DraftKings Milly Maker Picks
Player By Player Breakdown
Final Plays, Weather & DK Ownership
Research, Open Trends + Course
The Open Write Up & Preview
Open Trends & Research
OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP BETS
I liked Scheffler all week, but I saw number slip all week and waited. I didn’t even wait long enough because I saw some 22s floating out there. The 21 will suffice. I was mulling over Smith vs Morikawa vs DJ, and decided for DJ with the last bet. Why? He was longest odds, of course. A classic way to talk yourself into a losing bet.
I also grabbed the Tiger to make the cut boost at +100. I’m not made of stone. Oh, and the final major? You better believe I’ll burn some cash on FRLs one last time in 2022.
WATCH: Open Championship Final Bets
CUST’S POWER THREE (CURSED!!!!)
Will Z
Rahm
Mito
The to miss the parlay of those three pays 33/1!
Champion Golfer of the Year Profiles
2021 Winner: Collin Morikawa
4 of the top-5 finishers shot 67 or better on Thursday
4 of the top 6 in driving distance cashed top 10s for the week
10 of the top 11 finishers gained in Good Drives
Each of the top 4 finishers picked up over 3.5 Good Drives
Of the top 10 qualified players on final leaderboard, here are the 2021 season trends
8 were top 35 in season DK points
8 were top 50 in SG: Par 5 (6 were Top 20)
Average ranking in Prox by distance (for the season)
75-100: 91st
100-125: 107th
125-150: 57th
150-175: 79th
175-200: 99th
200+: 83rd
7 were either top-35 in putting inside of 5 feet or outside of 25 feet
The Morikawa profile
6 straight top-20 finishes prior (despite losing with the putter in 4 of 5 measured events over that stretch)
The overall putting numbers are underwhelming, but he had picked up strokes in the 5-10 foot range in the 7 events prior to his Open win
Was dominating GIRs … he gained over 5 GIRs in each of those 6 events
4th at the US Open (tough opening round – 75 – but battled and shot under par in the final 3 rounds), top 20 at the Masters, first two events of the calendar year his finishes summed to 14 (a pair of 7th place finishes)
February birthday!
Won his first trip at The Open
2021 Stats
T2G: 1st
APP: 1st
BS: 2nd
DK: 34th
Opps: 2nd
Bogey Avoid: 25th
Similar Profile: Hideki Matsuyama
4th at the US Open (tough round 3, but closed with a field best 65 on Sunday), top 20 at the Masters, first two events of the calendar year his finishes summed to 14 (a win and a 13th)
February birthday
T-6 in his first career Open
2022:
T2G: 16th
APP: 8th
BS: 13th
DK: 8th
Opps: 4th
Bogey Avoid: 14th
FROM Sunday, I teased this profile…
Zach Johnson won at St. Andrews in 2015. His 2015 statistical profile (all rounds)
SG:APP (5th)
SG:P (75th)
3-putt avoidance (4th)
Opps Gained (12th)
Bogey Avoidance (6th)
Driving Distance (127th)
Good Drives (4th)
The player that looks most like that thus far in 2022:
His profile fits … can he outrun the ANDERCURSE????
THE TIDBITS
ST ANDREWS WEATHER
WATCH: Open Championship Weather Breakdown
With lock at 135am ET, you can track to the weather to the very last second, if you like. The waves look pretty even, honestly. Maybe there is a slight edge to the AM/PM, but nothing to drop everything and rush to. Embracing the weather wonkiness is my preferred play this week, and that’s how I allocated my 70 lineups: 30 mixed, 20 AM/PM, 20 PM/AM.
OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP WIND TOWER: Leuchars Airport
For single entries or three-max, just take the guys you want to.
Open DraftKings Ownership
Projections are confusing to me this week. You can play everyone in your lineup. I get the feeling the Rory, Spieth, Xander are going to squeeze the other 10Ks, so expect them to come in under. JT will likely be second most popular (14%~) imo.
WATCH: Open DK Ownership & Pivots
Smith and Lowry in the lower 9Ks are likely going to drop the ownership on Will Z, Cantlay, and Hideki. I’d expect Will Z and Cantlay to still be 10%+, bit Deki to come in under. Makes him a fantastic pivot.
Same I the lower $8Ks. Finau, Niemann, and Homa are expected to suck up the ownership, leaving Sungjae and Conners in the 6-9% range if you fancy them.
Seamus Power, Gary Woodland, Ryan Fox, Keith Mitchell and Tom Kim are likely the most popular options sub 7.5K on DraftKings. I’d only except Power to crack 10%, but you never know how the ownership can consolidate around one or two names.
JOIN: PME DRAFTKINGS $90K RAKE FREE TOURNEY
Rory
X
Spieth
Finau
Hooma
Smith
Fitz
Lowry
Fleetwood
Niemann
That’s it. Thanks again, and best of luck this week! Oh, NEW Cust Corner tomorrow…
— PM