The Open Trends, Weather, Stats

+ Giveaways & NFL

Jul 10, 2022

THE OPEN GIVEAWAYS

Let’s get this going early for the Open Championoship.

Instead of doing muliple givaways there’s a Top prize of $500 CASH MONEY to the winner, a MASTERS POLO (Size Large) direct from the Augusta National store for secon, and a FREE Fantasy National membership for a year for 3rd.

If we get enough engagment, I’ll add some more giveaway prizes and maybe release the NEW CUST CORNER with KENNY KIM earlier than anticipated.

OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP CONTENT

DraftKings Milly Maker Picks

Research, Open Trends + Course

The Open Write Up & Preview

There are myriad ways to get ballots into the draw, but the main one, per usual, is leaving a review for the PME audio podcast. Even if you’ve done it before, do it again and re-qualify. Takes like 30 seconds.

1 Leave a 5-Star review for The PME Podcast on Apple or Spotify. (30 Ballots)

Apple: http://bit.ly/PMEiTunes
Spotify: https://goo.gl/VboemH

2 RT or Share any PME post on Twitter or Facebook (1 Ballot for every time you do it)

3 Sub to this Newsletter (10 Ballots)

4 Sub to MMN on YouTube (10 Ballots)

SUB TO MMN ON YOUTUBE HERE

5 Deposit JOCK MKT with Code “MMN” and screen shot it to @ThePME or email to thepatmayoexperience@gmail.com (100 Ballots)

JOIN: Get $100 Match on your deposit at JOCK MKT NOW

On top of the ballots for the PME giveaway, if you sign up NOW, using code “MMN” at first deposit, they’ll match your deposit up to $100. If you did this last time, you’re already qualifed in the draw!

JOIN: PME DRAFTKINGS $90K RAKE FREE TOURNEY

The Open BETS

Nothing as of yet actually. Im starring down a Morikawa 40/1 boost atm, but may way for the 8 placings and pray it’s still there Monday morning.

Full bets show with Geoff and Cust Monday am btw.

2022 British Open: Course

Course: St. Andrews (Old Course)
Yards: 7,297
Par: 72
Greens: Half Fescue; Half Bent & Poa

2022 British Open: Past Winners

2021: Collin Morikawa -15
2019: Shane Lowry -15
2018: Francesco Molinari -8
2017: Jordan Spieth -12
2016: Henrik Stenson -20
2015: Zach Johnson -15

Past Winners at St. Andrews

2015: Zach Johnson -15
2010: Louis Oosthuizen -16
2005 Tiger Woods -14
2000: Tiger Woods -19
1995: John Daly -6
1990: Nick Faldo -18
1984: Seve Ballesteros -12
1978: Jack Nicklaus -7
1970: Jack Nicklaus -5

NOTE: Of this group only Oosthuizen and Daly do not also have a victory at The Masters. Oosthuizen best finish was 2nd; Daly 3rd.

PREVIOUS WINNERS

Collin Morikawa: 2021’s best approach player
Shane Lowry: 2019’s 7th best in Par 3 scoring
Francesco Molinari: 2018’s 7th best off-the-tee
Jordan Spieth: 2017’s best approach player
Henrik Stenson: 2016’s 4th best approach player
Zach Johnson: 2015’s 5th best approach player
Rory McIlory: 2014’s best off-the-tee player
Phil Mickelson: 2013’s 4th best short game player
Ernie Els: 2012’s 5th best short game player

THE OPEN NOTES

We haven’t had a nation repeat as The Open champion since Padraig Harrington won in 2007 and 2008

8 of the past 10 champions have had a champion whose last name was in the first half of the alphabet (A-M)

Zach Johnson won at St. Andrews in 2015. His 2015 statistical profile (all rounds)

SG:APP (5th)
SG:P (75th)
3-putt avoidance (4th)
Opps Gained (12th)
Bogey Avoidance (6th)
Driving Distance (127th)
Good Drives (4th)

Here’s who rates out the best only using the things ZJ (you gotta ask, you can’t afford it) did well in 2015.

TOOLS: 20% Off Fantasy National Tools & Stats

Of the top 10 qualified players on final leaderboard, here are the 2015 season trends. (Shockingly, Jordan Niebrugge had no stats from 2015 to draw from)

8 were top 30 in season DK points
6 of them were Top 50 in driving distance- and outside the top 90 in Fairways
9 were top 50 in BoB gained (6 were top 25 and 4 were top 10)
8 were 45th or better in SG: Par 3

Rigging up the FN model for all rounds this season…

With a unique layout of only two par 5’s and two par 3’s, deduction would dictate par 4 scoring is going to be the great separator. At the 2015 Open, only one player who finished inside of the top 10 for the week in par 4 scoring finished outside the top 10 on the leaderboard. Hideki Matsuyama was T7 in par 4’s Gained, but was T18 on the leaderboard.

Interestingly enough, despite being a course accessible for almost any length off the tee, driving distance has played a significant factor in determining the Champion Golfer of the Year at St. Andrews. Clearly, it’s not the only thing that matters; Zach Johnson won in 2015 as evidence, but that year each of the top-five distance leaders for the week all finished inside the Top 10.

Number six that week was Graham DeLaet who finished in a tie for 68th. That shouldn’t be overly surprising, as the recently retired Canadian was notorious for his struggles around the greens. When you’re gassing it up off the tee on these short par 4’s and you have no game from 60 yards and in, it’s going to be a longgggggggggg week of chasing your ball around the grounds. Distance isn’t the only thing that matters, especially if there’s no short game associated with it, but in blustery conditions, it can simplify the approach play on the Par 4’s and 5’s by allowing the players to keep the ball low and still go at the greens since they’ll be much closer to the hole.

In perfect conditions, extremely good wedge play and putting (ala Spieth and Zach Johnson in 2015) can work just as well. Those are far more difficult skills to predict week-to-week, whereas distance is about the most repeatable skill in golf. In perfect conditions, there’s a large percentage of the field that can truly contend at St. Andrews. If someone has an elevated wedge and putter for four rounds, Brendon Todd and Kevin Na have the proper skills to win. Since that’s the case, it’s always better to plan for the worst. If the worst hits, you’ll want the Cameron Smith types. Well, at least how Smith escaped danger at THE PLAYERS Championship this year.

DraftKings Strategy, Tips and Tournament Selection

Players who you feel confident can get it up and down with a creative chip and make the seven footer to save par or bogey. There aren’t many, frankly. Off the top of my head, Smith, Spieth, JT, Scheffler and Patrick Reed are the ones that instantly come to mind. But the numbers reveal other options…

FOOTBALL!!!!!

You want season long, customizable projections? That’s FREE at Run The Sims. DFS and NFL Betting? That actually costs money. HOWEVER, the early bird package is now OPEN at Run The Sims. Code “MAYO” gets you 10% off that already slashed price. I suggest doing it now before you realize you want it and the price has already gone up.

TOOLS: RUN THE SIMS OPTO, PROJECTIONS, PROPS TOOS 10% OFF

2022 PME Fantasy Draft Guide… So Far

RB RANKS

WR RANKS MIDDLE TIERS

WR RANKS TOP TIERS

Confusing Offesnes

Stacks & W17 Correlations

2022 Best Ball Strategy

WR Busts + HYPE Players

Intro to Fantasy Football

WINNER TRENDS

There has been one distinct winning trend at Open Championships over the past decade: Since 2011, outside of Ernie Els in 2012, each Champion Golfer either had a win or three Top 10’s in their six starts prior to raising the Claret Jug.

Here’s who qualifies, using all TOURS

Xander
Rory
Rahm
JT
Fitz
Will Z
Cantlay
Louis
Burns
Lowry
Cam Young
Fox
Horschel
Homa
Poston
Pieters
Meronk
Vik Perez
Hao Tong
Harding
KH Lee
Mansell
Vincent
Kennedy
Imahira
Quayle
Min-Kyu Kim
Yuto Katsuragawa
Shugo Imahira
Paddy Harrington

And while overall Open experience has mattered (only Collin Morikawa had fewer than four previous Open appearances before winning), no one since Paddy Harrington in 2008 (who won for the second straight year) had finished better than T30 in their previous Open start. In fact, seven of the past 12 winners had missed the cut in their Open before becoming champion.

Culling the list, and removing everything but PGA, LIV, and DP results, the players who qualify with: A win and/or 3 Top 10s over their past 6 starts, 4 or more Open starts, and didn’t finish better than T30 last year.

Rory
JT
Pieters
Fox
Horschel
Hao Tong

Let’s add in an extra wrinkle, and go back to every winner at St. Andrews since 1970. All of the winners have either a Win or Top 3 finish at the Masters.

Meaning, THERE CAN BE ONLY ONE!!!!!!

WEATHER

From a DraftKings perspective, monitoring the forecast all the way up until lineup lock (2:30 a.m. ET Thursday), will give you the best chance at making the proper decision. Even if there is no clear wave advantage, allocating your lineups with all six of your players teeing off within the same 90 minute window, from both sides of the draw, could give you a significant advantage should part of the field get annihilated with the wind.

The Open is the only tournament of the year which forces each golfer to start on the first hole. There are no split tees. So, the event with the most impactful weather actually spreads out the tee times that we’ll get the longest rounds and largest window for weather to change with fewer players on the course. All in the interest of making it fair; insomuch that each player sees the same holes in the same order.

It may not prove to have any advantage whatsoever, but if it’s equal, you’ll at least have put yourself into a position to get lucky with the weather. The downside being you’re now equal to every other lineup that didn’t take this into consideration.

Here’s the weather tower I’m using if you wanna bookmark it.

OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP WIND TOWER: Leuchars Airport

Until Tomorrow

— PM