PGA Championship Preview
Model Change, Stats + More
Here, have a BRIBE
I’ll be sending a selective few of you $100 in COLD HARD (digital) CASH if you…
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And leave a 5-Star review for The PME Podcast on Apple or Spotify.
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And that’s it. You can share this and the other shows around too if you like. That’d help. Winner announced on Wednesday’s LIVE CHAT at 12pmET with Tambo.
Thanks. Let’s juice those numbers
Oh, and the DK Listeners’ Legaue is 6000 spots this week. That’s $90K of RAKE FREE money. So, please, let’s fill this.
PLAY: PME DRAFTKINGS LISTENERS LEAGUE
I now have it CONFIRMED, I’ll be giving away 50 FREE DK Milly Maker Tickets starting Tuesday am at 10am ET. You’ll have until Wednesday at 10am to enter. So, follow me there if you want in. Or even if you don’t want, you should still do it because that’s a nice thing to do.
Injury UPDATE
I went deeper on the why in yesterday’s post, but no one cares about that anymore. Here’s the latest.
Bryson (Questionable) — Testing out the wrist on Tuesday
Casey OUT
Sungjae OUT
Phil OUT
English OUT
BETS & CURSED
Geoff and I talked through the betting board. Plus, Cust reveals the most cursed and reverse CURSED players for the week.
Also, we got the debut of Moneyball Geoff. With that look he could definitely be involved in the first round of layoff at a mid level accounting firm.
WATCH: PGA CHAMPINSHIP PICKS & ONE AND DONE
Will Z 50/1
Mitchell 200/1 (With Top 8 Each Way)
List (With Top 8 Each Way)
Those are the only three. I’ve placed so far. However, if you watched or listened today, you know I am FOR SURE in on Morikawa and Hovland. As a greedy person, I’m holding out hope for a better number on both. Although I would play them at 20 and 28 respectively, I don’t feel like those numbers are going anywhere, and II may be able to catch a boost on Kawa and even see some drift on VIK. Everyone likes VIK, but he’s dropped into the range of all the popular second-tier favorites — Xander, Hideki, and Lowry — so there’s a chance a 30-40 reveals itself at some point. So I’ll wait and see. If not, 28 it is.
After that, I’ve whittled the short list down to DJ (25), Lowry (33), Niemann (45), Fitzpatrick (45), Conners (80), Finau (80). I’m thinking I’ll end up with two of those six and call it a losing week.
Mitchell and List are only in there because the 40/1 each way pay outs for their Top 8 are such better odds than just a Top 10 that it’s less money to wager for a much bigger payout to do it that way.
I do have a bomb list, which may be better served for DraftKings, but in the Top 20/30/40 markets, along with Mitchell and List, I’m digging Cink, Noren, Bobby Mac, Ryan Fox, and Cam Davis.
I can still be talked in and out of basically anyone at this point, so I look forward to chatting with Rick about the entire field Tuesday night. Tune into that btw.
MOST ANDERCURSED
Scheffler
Burns
Louis
MOST REVERSECURSED
Morikawa
Zalatoris
Finau
FANTASY STOCKS
Trade players like stocks at JOCK MKT. It’s a double bonus this week, use code “MMN” at JOCK MKT with you first deposit and get a match up to $100. AND, you Can use some of it to get in on this Thursday promo…
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PGA CHAMPIONSHIP CONTENT
Research Show w/ Troy Martin
DK Milly Maker Picks w/ Rasa and Tambo
Bets + Picks w/ Fienberg + Cust’s ANDERCURSES
Tournament Write Up
Player by Player Breakdown w/ Rick Gahmen (Tuesday)
Final Bets, Ownership + Viewer Chat LIVE WED 12pm ET
Cut Sweat LIVE (Friday)
Bonus Content
Putting Predictability + Stats
Future of TV/Radio/Digital Golf Coverage
Secret Show: (DK Strategy w/ Tambo & Rasa)
Also, if you’re lucky enough to be in one of the right states, I’ll give you $$$ to play on an upstart DFS site. Email thepatmayoexperience@gmail.com to see if you’re in one of thsoe states. And want free $$$. Gotta have pay pal tho so I can it to ya. Cheers
GALAXY BRAIN: It’s Not How You Start
We all love majors and are just excited to get the tournament underway, but make sure to not overreact to what we see on Thursday. Four of the past five PGA Championships have been won by a player that was at least three shots back after Round 1, meaning that the ability to learn the course and adjust is important. Curious who the Top 15 are in terms of SG:TOT over their past (non-day one) 36 rounds?
1. Justin Thomas
2. Rory McIlroy
3. Shane Lowry
4. Scottie Scheffler
5. Came Smith
6. Patrick Cantlay
7. Hideki Matsuyama
8. Jon Rahm
9. Will Zalatoris
10. Xander Schauffele
11. Matthew Fitzpatrick
12. Tom Hoge
13. Corey Conners
14. Keegan Bradley
15. Viktor Hovland
You could build a nice little balanced lineup from that list … and you get the built in excuse of “I built my lineup for days 2-4” if Thursday is ugly! It’s early, but in a field of this strength, not rostering a player with a Top 10 price tag could prove to be unique. Simply a thought. And one with a built in excuse of why it sucks when it sucks!
ZEE STATS
I readjusted some of the stats from the model I built on the research show. I took away weight from Around the Green, added in putting from 5-15 feet, and short proximity and gave a spike to GIRs
TOOLS: 20% Off Fantasy National Tools & Stats
And Here’s what we’re looking at over the past 36 Rounds
Shrink the sample down to 24 rounds and search by only “difficult relative to par” courses, and it spits out…
Any of this matter? Likely not. But I like to hope it does. Just once.
Until tomorrow.
— PM