22 PGA Championship PREVIEW
Stats, Reasearch, Scorecard & Giveaways
IT’S MAJOR TIME… so that means it’s BRIBE TIME!!!! I’ll be sending a selective few of you $100 in COLD HARD (digital) CASH if you…
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And that’s it. Winner announced on Wednesday’s LIVE CHAT at 12pmET with Tambo.
Thanks. Let’s juice those numbers
Oh, and the DK Listeners’ Legaue is 6000 spots this week. That’s $90K of RAKE FREE money. So, please, let’s fill this.
PLAY: PME DRAFTKINGS LISTENERS LEAGUE
I don’t have confirmation yet, but I SHOULD have a bunch of free milly maker tickets to giveaway on Twitter Tuesday afternoon. So, follow me there if you want in. Or even if you don’t want, you should still do that.
FIELD/CUT
All the notables are going to be at Southern Hills (Tiger included), except…
Paul Casey (Questionable) — The Friday cut sweat is always discussed, but Paul Casey has basically invented the Wednesday cut sweat over the past two months. After finding himself plugged in a fairway divot on No. 16, in contention, at THE PLAYERS championship in March, nothing has been right with the Brit. After finishing third that week, Casey only made it through a few holes against Corey Conners at the Dell Match Play before withdrawing with back spasms. He eventually pulled out of the tournament entirely. We haven’t seen him take a shot since. Something that’s been painful for his DraftKings backers. Despite solid ownership at The Masters, Casey pulled out of the event after lock, leaving those rosters DOA on Thursday morning. Most recently, Casey WD’d from the Wells Fargo Championship two weeks ago. He’s currently listed in the field for the PGA Championship but, as of now, there’s no word on whether or not he’s actually going to swing a club.
Bryson DeChambeau (Likely OUT) — Bryson was injured earlier this year in Saudi Arabia, returning at the Dell Match Play in March, never once looking like peak Bryson. After missing the weekend at Augusta he opted for surgery on his wrist and has been out ever since. He hasn’t officially declared himself out for the PGA Championship, but it’s far more likely that he’s watching on TV than competing for the Wanamaker.
Phil Mickelson (OUT) — The defending champ pulled out of the PGA Championship late Friday afternoon. Next time we see Phil it will likely be on the Greg Norman headed LIV Tour next month.
Harris English (OUT) — English has missed ever event since mid-January, this week will be no exception. After undergoing hip surgery in February he’s hoping to return at next month’s US Open.
Sungjae Im (OUT) — This one is bummer. As a final tune up before the year’s second Major, Sungjae flew back to South Korea for the Woori Financial Group Championship. He was forced to withdraw after a positive COVID test. Due to the travel restrictions between the countries he was forced to withdraw over the weekend.
CUT LINE
Each of the Major championships has its own unique flair in terms of cut line rules and who actually gets a spot in the field. The US Open and Open Championship are open for a reason. Anyone can go and attempt top qualify for a spot in the field. The Masters is invitation only and allows all former champions a lifetime spot in the field.The PGA Championship actually has a few wonky qualifications.
In terms of the cut line, for reasons unknown, the PGA Championship has held onto the Top 70 and ties. A standard PGA event is Top 65 and ties, the US Open is Top 60, and the Masters is Top 50. To the uninitiated, those extra five spots don’t seem like much, but ask any DraftKings player who sweats the cut week in and week out. Having a bit more wiggle room entering the weekend id a welcome sight.
Then there’s the field itself. First, there are 20 PGA Professions in the mix. These guys are all excellent players, but there’s a reason they’re instructors and not card carrying PGA TOUR members. At best, one or two will make the cut, and none are going to win, or likely to place inside the Top 50. Get some red ink out for those guys. No need wasting time researching them.
Second, there’s a bunch of dead-weight former winners who are essentially write-offs. If THE REAL DEAL Shaun Micheel, Rich Beem, Y. E. Yang, or John Daly are the one’s who take my money this week, I’ll waste even more money explaining it to a therapist.
Third, there is a collection random international players from weaker-talent tours around the globe. While there’s in an influx of legit talent from some DP World Tour regulars — Nicolai Hojgaard, Ryan Fox, Richard Bland, Pablo Larrazabal, Laurie Canter, Bernd Wiesberger, Adri Arenas, and last week’s winner in Belgium Sam Horsefield — most of the international talent is representing the Sunshine, Aussie, Japanese, Korean, and Asian Tours which are a significant step down in overall quality from the European circuit. While the majority of non-DP World Tour players will likely miss the cut, unlike the PGA Professionals, one or two of them could potentially spike a Top 20 finish. Uncovering who that may be is a pretty impossible task however. Which likely makes that entire group a cross off.
So, when you subtract those names fro the 156 player field, the field is really like a 120-130 player event, resembling more of invitational PGA event like The Genesis, Heritage or Memorial. But one where a higher percentage of player actually make the cut… and with a stronger field.
PGA CHAMPIONSHIP CONTENT
Research Show w/ Troy Martin
DK Milly Maker Picks w/ Rasa and Tambo
Bets + Picks w/ Fienberg + Cust Cameo (MONDAY)
Tournament Write Up
Player by Player Breakdown w/ Rick Gahmen (Tuesday)
Final Bets, Ownership + Viewer Chat LIVE WED 12pm ET
Cut Sweat LIVE (Friday)
Bonus Content
Putting Predictability + Stats
Future of TV/Radio/Digital Golf Coverage
Secret Show: (DK Strategy w/ Tambo & Rasa)
Also, if you’re lucky enough to be in one of the right states, I’ll give you $$$ to play on an upstart DFS site. Email thepatmayoexperience@gmail.com to see if you’re in one of thsoe states. And want free $$$. Gotta have pay pal tho.
BETS
Will Z 50/1
I saw EPat tweet about a boost to 50/1 while I was wondering the streets of Monoco last week. So I took it. Frankly, he’s a better DK play than bet, but I’m in either way. I’ll wait for the numbers to expand come Monday afternoon before really investing my cash.
From a DK Perspective…
Will Zalatoris ($8,900) — You can’t fade every popular player. So I’ll push my chips in on Will Z. Since 2020, Zalaroris has played in six Major Championships. He missed the cut at least year’s US Open,. Was forced to WD with a wrist injury after aggressively trying to hack it out of the rough at last year’s Open Championship, and finished Top 10 in the other four. The short putting is inevitably going to rear its head at the worst possible time, ask anyone who regularly has money on him. It has yet to be an issue for him at Augusta however, another course with extreme quick bentgrass greens. And his ball striking consistency generally keeps him away from blow up holes. Over the past 50 rounds, only Jon Rahm and Viktor Hovland have gained more strokes combined with their driver and irons. I don’t really give a shit he no-showed the Byron Nelson. It happens.
Stats
SG: Approach
Par 4s Gained 450-500 Yards
Proximity 50-100 Yards
Driving Distance Gained
Proximity 200+ Yards
TOOLS: 20% Off Fantasy National Tools & Stats
Course
Course: Southern Hills CC
Yardage: 7,556
Par: 70
Greens: Bentgrass
Past Winners
2021: Phil Mickelson -6
2020: Collin Morikawa -13
2019: Brooks Koepka -8
2018: Brooks Koepka -16
2017: Justin Thomas -8
2016: Jimmy Walker -14
2015: Jason Day -20
Southern Hills Notable Events
2021: Alex Cejka (Senior PGA Championship)
2009: Byeong-Hun An (US Amateur)
2007: Tiger Woods (PGA Championship)
2001: Retief Goosen (U.S. Open)
NOTE: Course was redesigned in 2019
CUSTYS
Yes, the Custys came out. And yes, it was far and away show of the year to this point. Although last week’s NFL schedule release where Cust and Geoff guessed the Jets and Chargers records was pretty close. If you need a laugh, this is the show for you. Plus, GARION’S THERE!!!!
WATCH: 2022 CUSTY AWARDS
BIZZARO GALAXY BRAIN: Why Not?
Who wins your March Madness pool every year? Who seems to cash biggest in Super Bowl squares? Spoiler alert … it’s rarely the people that “know” the most. The more information you had for March Madness this season, the less likely you were to advance St. Peter’s … but if you’re a devoted podcast listener and filled in your bracket simply based on CUST’s fear of Peacocks, you probably lapped the field. Point being that I’ll give you all the information you could ask for this week, but there is no wrong way to build a lineup: so why not lean into that a bit? The below path to a lineup is 100% accurate: it’s up to you to decide if you want to buy in!
- 9 straight champions have had EITHER a first name that starts with J (Jason Dufner, Jason Day, Jimmy Walker and Justin Thomas) or a last name that has an “o” (Rory McIlroy, Brooks Koepka and Collin Morikawa)
o Notable players in the field that check BOTH boxes: Justin Thomas ($10,700), Jason Kokrak ($7,300) and Justin Rose ($7,200)
- 3 of the last 5 individuals to win the PGA Championship were born on either the 6th or 16th day of a month (Phil Mickelson, Collin Morikawa and Jimmy Walker)
o Notable players in the field that satisfy that very predictable trend: Adam Scott (July 16), Will Zalatoris (August 16) and Corey Conners (January 6)
PGA CHAMPIONSHIP TRENDZ
At over 7,500 yards and only a Par 70, most, myself included, are expecting daunting task at Southern Hills this time around. I’d love to lean on history to try and peg a skill set to pounce on this week, but after its renovation by Gil Hanse in 2019, it doesn’t quite resemble the course where Tiger picked up another Wanamaker in 2007. The only real event to draw from is the 2021 Senior PGA Championship, which played significantly shorter (400-500 yards shorter for the old guys). It’s not much, but it’s something. I went straight to the source and chatted with Stephen Ames’ (T34 that year) caddie, and creator of the yardage books, Troy Martin.
Southern Hills is going to play firm and fast, and the removal of so many of the trees is going to expose the course to some potentially deadly Tulsa winds. It’s going to be a second shot course, but honestly, that’s every course, so that means nothing. The players with the best approach play are going to do well. Shocker.
The biggest takeaway were the green complexes, though. With so many approach shots coming in from a hefty distance (seven of the Par 4s are over 450 yards, three Par 3s over 217 yards, both Par 5s at least 632 yards) holding the green is going to be an issue. To make matters worse, the putting surfaces are well below average size and most of the areas are shaved green side, so the ball isn’t going to simple run off the back and nestle up into the rough. No, it’s going to roll, and roll. Then likely roll some more.
This poses a problem when trying to assess short game. At a course where even Par may be an excellent score, short game is going to play a massive factor, but there are few courses which will resemble the types of shots we’re likely to witness from off the green. And the real problem is, I can’t decide whether this is an advantage for the great around the green players or a neutralizing factor for the bad ones. Obviously, there’s a massive difference between a 35-foot up-and-down from the green side rough and a 62-yard scramble from the short grass. While Collin Morikawa and Victor Hovland will chip themselves out of tournaments on a regular basis, that second distance is actually where they excel. I wish I had an answer. Alas, I will not until Sunday evening when that information is useless.
Rick and I will build another one of these on Tuesday night, but here’s what Tambo, Ben and I came up with for the “Play the Best Plays Lineup” on the weekend show. It’s what we think the most common type of build will be. Basically a cash game lineup.
WATCH: PGA CHAMPIONSHIP DRAFTKINGS PICKS
More to come
— PM