Pebble Beach Final Bets, Weather, DK Ownership
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PEBBLE BETS
Justin Thomas 24 — I was a bit scared off from any favorite because of the unknown weather conditions and how it’s going to impact the course rotation draw. Sure, we know which players are playing which courses now, but no idea if there will be delays, stoppages, etc. After talking it through with Cam and James, JT separated himself from the rest of the short list players I like this week (Homa, Spieth, Cantlay Fitz) mainly because I’ve seen him rally and actually score in the worst of conditions when a lot of the field just packs it in. OK, it’s really his effort at the 2022 PLAYERS that stands out in my mind. And if it just becomes a dart chucking contest with wedges, JT can do that as good as anyone. Just make a few putts, PAL.
Ben An 55 — If not now, when? An’s opened the year with consecutive Top 4 finishes, loves himself a short course, possesses one of the primer short games in the world, and actually gained strokes putting in both his career starts at Pebble Beach. He only finished T37 in his Pro-Am debut last year but only gained +0.45 strokes between driving and irons in his two rounds, he’s averaging more than that per round just off the tee over his past 20 starts.
Sahith Theegala 75 (5 Places) —Most of team “Magic Beans” are near the top of the odds and I really don’t wanna Mac Hughes, so Theegala is a need middle at these odds. If the rough isn’t too penal, Sahith shouldn’t have much of an issue attacking pins from off the fairway, and if it becomes a grind, I fully expect him to chip in 8 times on the weekend. Well, I don’t now that I have money on him. He would if I didn’t bet him. Guaranteed.
Nick Taylor 85 — The Canadian has acquitted himself quite well around Pebble Beach in his career. Outside of his 2020 win Taylor’s picked up Top 20s the last two seasons as well. He blew it coming home at the AMEX to miss the cut, but flashed enough approach upside at Sony to warrant another look down the board again at a happy place.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout 100 (5 Places) — Hopefully the wetness doesn’t completely limit his ability to fire at pins from in close, but if he can, wedge and putting contest is probably the only type of tournament he can conceivably win on the PGA TOUR.
Kurt Kitayama 150 (5 Places) — Only Kurt and those who bet him a year ago at Pebble remember he was one stroke off Rose’s lead entering the final round before a Monday 76 sunk him on the leaderboard. He does all his best work on coastal courses, and is actually on an excellent ball striking run to start the year, gaining over two strokes ball striking over his first two starts. Problem is the putter, primarily his lag putting. He hasn’t gained strokes on the green since last year’s Charles Schwab Challenge. That was in May. Fortunately, the course with the smallest green on TOUR can assist with fewer three-putts
Mav McNealy 150 (5 Places) — Played quite well until the final round at Torrey, and if there’s ever a place for him to breakthrough, it’s probably at the venue he knows best.
LIV and DP — Betting golf is FUN!
WEATHER
In a little bit of good news, it appears like most of the is now happening overnight Wednesday and concluding before first tee on Thursday. There’s lowish winds Thursday-Saturday, then there’s the Sunday problem. Tons of rain and winds up to 60mph. The afternoon, as currently projected, looks unplayable. Problem is, Monday kinda does too. Now, this may sort itself out and those Sunday winds don’t surface til Monday and we’re good to go, but I’m curious if the event organizers decide to cram in as many holes as possible Saturday and see what happens. You’d have to think there’s a contingency plan in place to ensure all 72 holes get in.
WIND TOWER: PEBBLE BEACH/LONE CYPRESS
DRAFTKINGS
Outside of the lineups I built with Tambo on the show, I actually split 20 lineups a piece with full course stacks. No idea if it will work, but it seems like a fun strategy to test out. If you decided to attack Pebble on Day 1, just remember, there are very few options at the top so you may wanna leave some cash on the table to fade on of the three top guys. Of all players $8,500 and above on DraftKings, only Xander, Homa, Morikawa, and Finau start at Pebble Beach.
Oh, if you’re going to get different, this probably the range to do it in. One of these will end up in the winning lineup. Which one? As my track record will showcase, I am not from the future.
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PS, thanks for letting Michael Kim know he should come on the show and chat with me. I’m saving that show for after Super Bowl but since you good people helped out in making it happens, you get first crack:
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— PM