There’s going to be MORE golf coverage than normal with no football this week. Me, Cust and Geoff shall return Wednesday night with NFL awards picks, but this week’s schedule is:
Set this page as a bookmark. I’ll update all the show link and add the listners league link when they’re public
PEBBLE BEACH DRAFTKINGS RAKE FREE LISTENERS LEAGUE (DIRECT LINK)
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WATCH: Pebble Beach Pro-Am Picks, Research, Course Preview, Guess The Betting Odds
Field: 80 Players
Cut: NO CUT
Lineup Lock: Thursday, February 1
Defending Champ: Justin Rose
If there was ever a year where the Pro-Am may be an enjoyable watch, we’ve got it. With its “signature status” Pebble Beach was forced to eliminate the worst day of coverage from the TV schedule. Since no can hit a betting winner in 2024 (welcome to my every year), not having the brutal CBS Saturday round, where they spend more time breaking down Larry the Cable Guy’s swing in slow motion than actually showing shots of, you know, pro golfers; I’m considering this a group win for all of us.
In fact, since the field has been squeezed to 80 players (from 156), the actors are all gone. Remaining are only the very privileged CEOs and a handle of athletes (Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Pau Gasol, Larry Fitzgerald, and Buster Posey). ANDDDDDD, the Pro-Am portion is just the first two rounds. While I hate there’s no cut; I’ll take going from a three course rotation to just two courses (Get LAUNCHED Monterey Peninsula) with none of the circus on the weekend.
Basically, it’s set up like the 2021 COVID event, but with the strongest field in my life time. Beyond all the Top 25 in the world rankings; AMEX winner Nick Dunlap is making his first start as a pro, Torrey winner Matthieu Pavon gets in after the victory while Maverick McNealy, Adam Scott, Webb Simpson, and Peter Malnati soaked up the four sponsors exemptions. Scott is understandable, McNealy, I guess, because of his ties to the area, but it’s crazy that Webb and Malnati got the nod over the likes of former winner Daniel Berger, Will Zalatoris, or even 2019 US Open champ, at Pebble Beach, Gary Woodland. Strange. Malnati’s Pro-Am partner must be legit higher-up at on the TOURs bigger sponsors.
We’re getting Rory for his first PGA start in 2024 after a 2nd/1st through Dubai in January. Fleetwood played Kapalua then won the Dubai event where Rory finished second. Cam Young played the second Dubai tournament as well, finishing third. Cam’s back this week too.
The big question I have for 2024 Pebble, to which I have no answer, is: Will we see the top end players dominate or will Pebble beach be ripe for shorter hitting long shots like previous years?
Pebble Beach is annually the course with the shortest average drive on TOUR (264 yards vs. 283 yards) and the one with the fewest amount of drives over 300 yards (17%). In theory, this should mitigate the advantage of the premier drivers in the world — aka most of the elite players. This year’s event will be an interesting test case since this is the first time in — what feels like — ever, the field is stacked with all the premier talent in the field.
The elite drivers dominated during the 2019 US Open when all of top guys played. Woodland won, with Brooks, Rahm, Xander, Louis, and Rory all finished Top 10 that year. But that was under USGA conditions, though. In the much easier Pro-Am set up will it just play like normal and the skill advantage will be equalized?
The Pebble Beach Pro-Am has historically opened the door for long-shot winners. Three of the past eight winners — Potter, Nick Taylor and Vaughn Taylor — all went off at triple digits. Overall, the last eight winners have all been either 30/1 or below (Rose, Spieth, Mickelson and Berger) or 100/1 or longer. Two years ago, Hoge became the lone outlier opening 65/1 in the betting market and running down Spieth over the final holes.
Past Winners
2023: Justin Rose -18
2022: Tom Hoge -19
2021: Daniel Berger -18
2020: Nick Taylor -19
2019: Phil Mickelson -19
2018: Ted Potter Jr. -17
2017: Jordan Spieth -19
2016: Vaughn Taylor -17
Recent Winner Profile
2023: Justin Rose
Entered in strong form having gained a total of 12.6 strokes at Farmer and AmEx
9 of the top 10 finishers gained Prox: 175-200 (Keith Mitchell finished 4th for the week thanks to being second best in this bucket -- he lost proximity in the four surrounding buckets)
2022: Tom Hoge
Missed the cut at Farmers, but still had good golf in his mind with a runner up finish at AmEx
Of the top 8 in Prox: 175-200, three finished top 10 on the final leaderboard and another three cashed top 20 paychecks
2023: Justin Rose (-18, three clear of Brandon Todd and Brandon Wu)
His 66 on Sunday was 4th best on the course and he needed it with Todd and Wu at least matching him and Denny McCarthy firing a 64.
2022: Tom Hoge (-19, two clear of Jordan Spieth)
Led after the first round with a 63 (his only round better than 68)
2021: Daniel Berger (-18, 2 clear of Mav McNealy)
Highlight: Berger moved the wrong way on “moving day” with a 72, but was seven shots better on Sunday
The Top-11 finishers all gained Driving Distance on the field
The Top-13 finishers all gained with the putter
2020: Nick Taylor (-19, four shots clear of Kevin Streelman)
Highlight: Taylor was the Round 1 leader (by three strokes) after shooting a 63
The Top 10 finishers all gained with the putter (Taylor was the second best putter for the week)
2019: Phil Mickelson (-19, three shots clear of Paul Casey)
Highlight: Mickelson bookended the tournament with 65s and led the field in approach
The top-9 finishers all gained in Good Drives (only four gained in distance)
2018: Ted Potter (-17, 3 clear of Day/Mickelson/Reavie/DJ)
Highlight: Potter fired a 62 on Saturday (best round of the weekend, no one else had a round better than 64)
2017: Jordan Spieth (-19, 4 clear of Kelly Kraft)
Highlight: Spieth was inside the Top 5 in Good Drives and GIRs for the week
3 of the Top 9 finishers gained over 50 strokes of distance BUT lost fairways to the field
2016: Vaughn Taylor (-17, 1 clear of Mickelson)
Highlight: Progressively got better … 70-68-67-65
Taylor won despite losing almost a stroke with the putter (the other Top 15 finishers all gained with the flat stick … Taylor picked up 10.2 strokes T2G, 2.8 better than anyone else)
Key Stats
Strokes Gained: Approach
Par 5s: Gained
Proximity Gained: 100-150 Yards
Par-4s Gained: 350-400 Yards
Strokes Gained: Around The Green
Key Stats c/o FantasyNational.com
Course(s)
Course: Pebble Beach GL (three Rounds)
Par: 72
Yardage: 6,972
Greens: Poa
Number of Sand Bunkers: 116
Number of Water Hazards: 1 (ocean)
Shot Tracker: Yes
Par 3's (4): Average distance - 174 yards
Only the short #7 plays under par, with the other three a bogey rate north of 22%.
Three of the top five highest par rates on the course come on Par 3's -- take your medicine.
Par 4's (10): Average distance - 430 yards
three of the four most difficult holes are Par 4's, all of four which come in the first 10 holes
Par 5's (4): Average distance - 541 yards
You have to score on No. 2 and No. 6. The Par 5s on the back can cause some serious issues.
DraftKings Streak
This course is designed to keep us from leveraging starting hole in showdown. If you're going front-to-back, you run into holes 8-9-10 in succession, all of which rank among the five toughest on the course. If you're going back-to-front, you get access to Holes 18-1, both of which are among the seven easiest, but to go streaking, you need three straight ... holes 2 and 17 rank as the second and third toughest on the course respectively. I don't think many streaks cross over the 9's this week, but if they do happen, I think going back-to-front is the play, as you only have to birdie one tough hole as opposed to two.
Spyglass Hill GC (One Round)
Par: 72
Yardage: 7,041
Greens: Poa
Number of Sand Bunkers: 62
Number of Holes Water is in Play: 4
Shot Tracker: No
DraftKings Streak
With 8/9/10 playing has one of the tougher three hole stretches on the course, there’s a much better chance of pulling off the 17/18/1 wrap around by starting on hole 10. No. 17 and No. 1 both have a birdie rate of 25%+, just need to get lucky on No. 18 (11% birdie rate)
NOTES
Coastal winds can be a contributing factor to this, as well. Pebble Beach can switch from easy to frustratingly difficult with a wind shift. Spyglass tends to be more protected with the trees.
Shot Link data is only available for Pebble Beach GL. When you’re researching the statistics keep this in mind as half the rounds golfers have played historically at this event are not weighted in the Strokes Gained metrics.
Course history has been strong at Pebble Beach. All winners this millennium had previously made a cut at Pebble Beach in their career before winning, and most had a Top 10 finish on their resume. A lot of that can be attributed to perforce on the green. If you though the short misses were bad at Torrey Pines in the final few rounds, just wait for the misses this week, especially with the additional round at Pebble Beach.
Pebble Beach Putting Ranks by Distance
Inside 5’ 94.97% (3rd Lowest)
5-10’ 50.3% (2nd Lowest)
Inside 10’ 84.59% (3rd Lowest)
10-15’ 25.63% (Lowest)
5-15’ 40.39% (2nd Lowest)
15-25’ 13.18% (3rd Lowest)
Of players with more than two rounds at Pebble Beach, only Patrick Rodgers, Alex Noren, Denny McCarthy, Webb Simpson, Jason Day, and Mav McNealey are gaining +0.80 SG: PUTT/Round.
Pebble Beach Putting Stats c/o FantasyNational.com
Green sizes at Pebble Beach at just 3,500 square feet. Hence the extra consideration for SG: Around The Green, as making putts from outside 10-feet is quite the chore.
2024 Smallest Avg. Greens by sq. ft.
3,500 – Pebble Beach (AT&T Pebble Beach)
3,700 – Harbour Town (RBC Heritage)
4,300 – TPC Southwind (FedEx St. Jude)
4,773 – La Quinta CC (American Express)
5,000 — Spyglass Hill (AT&T Pebble Beach)
Since 2000, the leader or co-leader after 54 holes has gone on to win 13 times, including nine of the past 11 years. Rose led by a stroke a year ago, Hoge was tied with Hossler and Putnam, Berger was T2, one stroke behind Spieth in 2021, and Phil Mickelson was three back of Paul Casey entering the final round in 2019.
Six first-round leaders have gone on to win at Pebble Beach since 2000, as Nick Taylor became the sixth in 2020. He also became the first international winner at of this event since Vijay Singh in 2004. With his 2023 victory, Rose became the first player from Europe too ever win the event.
Picks
Nick Taylor
The Canadian has acquitted himself quite well around Pebble Beach in his career. Outside of his 2020 win Taylor’s picked up Top 20s the last two seasons as well. He blew it coming home at the AMEX to miss the cut, but flashed enough approach upside at Sony to warrant another look down the board again at a happy place.
Ben An
If not now, when? An’s opened the year with consecutive Top 4 finishes, loves himself a short course, possesses one of the primer short games in the world, and actually gained strokes putting in both his career starts at Pebble Beach. He only finished T37 in his Pro-Am debut last year but only gained +0.45 strokes between driving and irons in his two rounds, he’s averaging more than that per round just off the tee over his past 20 starts.
Create your own Mixed Model at FantasyNational.com
The golf bets have been losers but between me, Rasa, and the Run The Sims Prop Sniper tool we gave a 44/1 Prize Picks winner on the show. So that, plus winning the $10 DK showdown GPP on Thursday, not a bad weekend tbh.
Use code DOP at Prize Picks for a deposit match up to $100. Deposit $100, get an extra $100
— PM