Genesis Inv Cheatsheet: Bets, Picks, Weather, DraftKings Notes
Notes
72 Players; Top 50 + All Within 10 of lead Make Cut
Lock Thursday at 12:30pm ET
Weather Cold, Wet Windy Rd1, Somewhat in Rd2 too
Target Longer Hitters
Aberg, Rickie & Spaun appear to be Healthy after WDs
BETS
Scheffler +600
Will Z +5500
Scott +8000 (With Top 5)
Clark +1000
Jaeger +14000 (With Top 5)
Stephan Jaeger Placements (With Ties)
Top 10 +700
Top 20 +230
Top 20 Parlay (With Ties)
Greyserman/Clark/Zalatoris/Scott +3750
FIRST ROUND LEADER
Clark +5000
Greyserman +6000
Jaeger +7000 (With Top 5)
Knapp +9000 (With Top 5)
H2H
Pendrith over Tom Kim -120 (Coolbet)
LIV
Burmester +2500
Gooch +5000
Scottie Scheffler — Apparently I’m the only one who wasn’t all that bothered by Scottie’s back 9 coming home in Phoenix. He was dialed in on the front, pin seeking every hole. He misses the short putt, find himself in a position where he’s simply too far back and went off the rails. Don’t forget, he was the approach leader at Pebble Beach too. It’s all still there. In the past 12 months he hasn’t gone more than 3 starts without a win, but +350 just felt too steep despite me wanting to pull the trigger. Head over to Bet365 Wednesday morning and Scottie has slipped to +500. Far more palatable. Especially considering they also have their 30% boost on Wednesday, so I was able to bring it up to +650. I do rarely bet Scottie, but this harder-than-Farmers-but-not-as-hard-as-US-Open set up for Torrey Pines feels like the perfect course for him. Plus distance with accuracy, overall T2G with an emphasis on scrambling and a winning score likely to hover around -10 is the Scheffler blue print. Now watch him have his worst week in years. If it wasn’t Scottie it would have been some combo of Hideki, Lowry/Pendrith/Day, and I just felt better about it this way
Will Zalatoris — Willy Z has already flashed some peak rounds in the early part of the season, but it’s always tough for him to win a birdiefest when his putter just can’t sustain the required fire for four rounds. Now at a stiffer test, where his T2G can do the damage, he’s plenty live for his second career win. And since the field is stronger we’re getting him at more than double the odds from a few weeks ago when he unexpectedly withdrew before the tournament.
Adam Scott — Scott’s been fairly middling to kick off 2025, but the irons and short game have been excellent and he remains longer than most the field off the tee. We just haven’t seen him roll it successfully at all on the greens. He’s Top 10ed in both his Farmers appearances the past decade, gaining streaks putting in each, and even gained +3.9 putting in the 2021 US Open at Torrey Pines. If Scott can start making those putts again to match with his ball striking he’ll be a live long shot.
Wyndham Clark — I like the US Open skill set for Torrey and I think Clark flashed enough to jump in now at triple digits. He popped with his irons for the first time in ages and surprisingly was let down by his driver. Only the third time he’s lost strokes to the field off the tee in the past 12 months.
Stephan Jaeger — Hasn’t flashed much since the collapse at the end of the Sony Open, but I loved him at Torrey a few weeks back (terrible call) so going back at more than double the odds against half the players (albeit better quality of players) seems sensible to me. He fixed the case of the lefts that dogged him in Hawaii and his distance/short game combo gives him a unique path at the higher scoring events. He was T3 at Torrey a year ago, and has played solid in driver heavy events over the the past year. Just pray he makes some putts this time around.
Dean Burmester & Talor Gooch — I like to bet on golf. Plus, it gives me some incentive to remember to watch LIV Adelaide, which is far and away the best LIV event.
Pendrith over Tom Kim -120 (Coolbet)
A bomber who possesses solid course form over a shorter smacker who tends to do his best work on short Bermuda tracks. Ill take the former.
HOT LINKS
READ: Genesis Invitational Picks, Bets, Course Preview
Genesis Invitational DraftKings Picks, Lineups, Weather, One and Done
Genesis Invitational Picks, Bets, One and Done | WM Phoenix Recap | LIV Golf Adelaide Picks
Genesis Invitational Picks, Research, Sleepers, Course Preview, Odds
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UNDERDOG
Check on Underdog Thursday am as there may be more players and props to target. I like Keegan and Hideki to be able to grind with the bad weather. While few have won money betting Theegala under so far in 2025.
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WEATHER
Since there are only 72 players in the field the normal tee-time stacks have less of an impact to avoid the weather. Currently, Friday looks wet, cold and windy. The winds Tambo and I talked about on the Wednesday show now appear to be hitting earlier on Thursday. During the meat of the round.
WIND TOWER: TORREY PINES GLIDERPORT
No idea if the rain in forecast is going to delay play, enact lift clean and place, or just make it a miserable slog on the course. Could be all three! I default to bombers at Torrey Pines anyway, but the wet conditions would have more leaning more in that direction than before. Quickly scanning the the stats at Fantasy National, only two players in the field rank inside the Top 20 in both distance and accuracy over the past 50 rounds: Keegan Bradley and Davis Thompson. If we extend that to Top 30 in each we can add Ludvig Aberg, Scottie Scheffler, Jordan Spieth, and JJ Spaun.
In the modeling I weighted Distance at 66% and Fairways gained at 33%
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TEE TIMES
DRAFTKINGS
Keeping following the weather up until lock (1230pm ET) to try and get extra info about the rules of the day and how that may affect the field and your lineups. On the Wednesday show, Tambo and I talked though different builds. It’s my contention Rory is going to be about 10% more owned than Scottie, whereas he thinks they’ll be about even.
REMINDER: The DK Picks show is LIVE at 9am ET on Wednesdays in golf season if you ever have questions you’d like answered by Tambo and I. OK, just Tambo.
Genesis Invitational DraftKings Picks, Lineups, Weather, One and Done
For my lineups, beyond the Rory ones I build on the show, I just decided to jam Scheffler. I bet him, which I never do, so I was well just go hard on Scottie over Rory this week. Across 57 lineups I have him in 50%. I did go out of my way to build very balanced lineups with some of my other sets. Essentially starting with Hideki and going no lower than Greyserman. Losing a maximum of only 22 players to the cut doesn’t sound that bad but we’ve seen these events blow up in people’s faces very quickly. Since scoring is expected to be higher for this event than the Farmers (think -10), placement points will be more valuable than usual as the cuts you snack through the cut are unlikely to be -12 on the weekend. It’s also another case for the bombers. Since scoring is less frequent, the bigger hitters have a larger advantage on the shorter Par 5s to try and sneak in an eagle or easy birdie even if they’re still riding the bogey train in tougher conditions.
Eagles Gained Leaders last 50 Rounds
