2025 Genesis Invitational Picks, Bets, Course Preview
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QUICK BETS
PGA
Zalatoris +5500
Scott +8500
Clark +10000
Toying with the idea of betting Scheffler this week. Want to wait and think about it some more.
LIV
Burmester +2500
2025 Genesis Invitational Preview
QUICK NOTES
Field: 72 Players
Cut: Top 50 and Ties + Anyone within 10 shots of the lead
Lineup Lock: Thursday, February 13
Defending Champ: Hideki Matsuyama
Tournament was moved from Riviera CC to Torrey Pines South. All four round will be played at Torrey Pines South unlike the Farmers which has the field play Torrey Pines North one of the first two rounds.
This is the longest non-major Course on TOUR so when in doubt target bombers.
Tiger Woods is playing for the first time since the 2024 Open Championship. (Tiger WD already)
Michael Kim and Daniel Berger bumped Justin Lower and Lee Hodges out of the field after their T2s in Phoenix.
Chris Kirk WD’d allowing Mark Hubbard into the field.
The best available players haven’t played Torrey Pines since the US Open in 2021. It’s unlikely to play as difficult as the USGA set up but these are the stats from that year:
Key Stats
Strokes Gained: Approach
Driving Distance Gained
Proximity Gained: 200+ Yards
Strokes Gained: Around The Green
Par 4s Gained: 450-500 Yards
Mayo’s Key Stats Rankings powered by FantasyNational.com
I made simple version of the power ranks amplifying distance, along irons and around the green only. Considering Scottie isn’t No. 1 over this 50 round sample dating back into last year, it’s probably not the best tbh
Mayo’s Key Stats Rankings powered by FantasyNational.com
Course
Torrey Pines South
Par: 72
Yardage: 7,765
Greens: Poa
Average Green Size: 5,000 sq. ft.
Number of Sand Bunkers: 82
Number of Holes Water is in Play: 1
Holes
Par 3's (4): Average distance - 208 yards
- The two easier Par 3's are on the front-9, highlighted by #8 (15.8% birdie rate, the two on the back-9 have a sub-11% birdie rate)
- Harris English bogey'd three holes on Friday/Saturday at the Farmers ... they were all Par 3's
Par 4's (10): Average distance - 457 yards
- The four toughest holes are Par 4's (4-7-12-15), all of which own a single digit birdie rate
- Over the weekend at Farmers, English was -1 on the front-9 (+1 on Par 4's) and -3 on the back-9 (-2 on Par 4's)
Par 5's (4): Average distance - 593 yards
- The four easiest holes on the course, three holding a sub-9% bogey rate
- English went 4/4 in terms of birding Par 5's on Saturday.
DFS Streak
There is a decent chance to streak in both directions, making this less of a strategic edge than the North Course. Starting from the front gives you access to Holes 8-9-10, all of which rank among the seven easiest on property (Pars 3-5-4). Hole 11 is a 225-yard Par 3 that holds an 8% birdie rate -- you'll want to get your work done prior, but this isn't impossible.
When going back-to-front., you're going to have to get the tough #1 (average score: +0.15), but the surrounding holes aren't too problematic. Holes 17-18-2 all rank easier than course average with #18 holds a 36.6% under par rate. Holes 17 and 2 have a birdie rate over 15%, giving you a chance to go 17-18-1 or 18-1-2. I lean front-to-back, but the difference isn't nearly the same as the other track.
PAST WINNERS (at Riviera CC)
2024: Hideki Matsuyama, Closing Betting Odds: +8000
2023: Jon Rahm, Closing Betting Odds: +850
2022: Joaquin Niemann, Closing Betting Odds: +5000
2021: Max Homa, Closing Betting Odds: +5000
2020: Adam Scott, Closing Betting Odds: +3000
PAST WINNERS (Farmers - Torrey Pines)
2025 Harris English -8
2024: Mattieu Pavon -13
2023: Max Homa -13
2022: Luke List -15
2021: Patrick Reed -14
2020: Marc Leishman -15
2019: Justin Rose -21
2018: Jason Day -10
PAST WINNER NOTES (Farmers)
2025: Harris English (+8000)
- English played one round on the South Course in average scoring conditions (Saturday) -- he ripped off a birdie streak (Holes 16-18) and a three-in-four hole stretch (Holes 6-9, a stretch that includes two Par 5's)
- English's putter separated him from the pack. He picked up 6.1 strokes on the field with the flat stick ... the other seven players that finished top-8 for the week gained an average of 1.1 strokes putting)
2024: Matthieu Pavon (+12500)
- Pavon was 3rd on the week in approach and 5th putting (helping to offset -0.3 strokes around the green)
- Each of the top-12 finishes gained on approach (Stephan Jaeger finished T-3 despite bleeding 1.6 strokes with the putter, thanks to picking up 4.5 on approach)
2023: Max Homa (+2000)
- Home and Keegan Bradley finished 1-2 on the leaderboard and they finished 1-2 on Prox125-150.
- The top four approach players for the week finished 1st, T-4th, 3rd, and T-4th on the final leaderboard.
2022: Luke List (+6000)
- List beat Will Zalatoris in a playoff thanks to ... his putting? List was 5 strokes better on the greens (+3.7 compared to -1.3) for the week than Zalatoris.
- List and Zalatoris were top-3 performers in Prox 12-150 (the top-5 in that range all finished 16th or better for the week)
2021: Patrick Reed (+2500)
- Just get close ... Reed was 10th in putting and 1st around the green in the victory
- Short putting matters ... 8 of the top 9 finishers gained strokes putting from 5-10 feet. Of those nine: only three gained from 10-15 feet, only three gained from 15-10 feet, and none of them gained more than 0.7 strokes from 20-25 feet.
2020: Marc Leishman (+5000)
- A hot putter carried him over Jon Rahm by a stroke. He was +8 strokes putting (Rahm was next best at +5.9) and that was enough despite losing ground (albeit slightly) both off the tee and around the green)
- 17 of the top-20 finishers gained distance off the tee (Rory McIlroy finished T-3 despite gaining just 0.6 strokes with the putter as a result of the third most ground gained distance wise from the tee box)
MORE NOTES
Very rarely does Strokes Gained: Around The Green factor into the winning score. However, the greens at the South Course are tiny and pairing an average-or-better short game with a big driver is tested method to crack the Sunday leaderboard. Not the only way, but the path of least resistance. Obviously, fairways + distance off the tee will equal a slew of GIRs, which would be optimal, but that’s just simply unfeasible for three rounds on this course with the average scrambling percentage hovering around 52%.
If you feel the need to put shorter hitters in your lineups, make sure they gain strokes off the tee through their accuracy and know how to hit a long iron. There are six par 4s measuring over 450 yards and five of them are inside the six most difficult holes on Torrey Pines South and all played over par. Holes No. 12 and No. 15 are two of the 50 toughest holes on the PGA Tour almost every year, majors included.
The driving accuracy percentage of players who made the cut generally hovers around 50%.
Although Poa Annua putting surfaces tend to run slower on average, expect greens on the South Course to run faster because of the windy and dry conditions. The South Sourse generates more three-putts than the PGA Tour average, with an incredible amount of missed short putts.
These are the per round putting leaders from the South Course from 2021-2025. Not everyone had played in the Famrers over that span so the sample is quite limited:
PICKS
Will Zalatoris — Willy Z has already flashed some peak rounds in the early part of the season, but it’s always tough for him to win a birdiefest when his putter just can’t sustain the required fire for four rounds. Now at a stiffer test, where his T2G can do the damage, he’s plenty live for his second career win. And since the field is stronger we’re getting him at more than double the odds from a few weeks ago when he unexpectedly withdrew before the tournament.
Wyndham Clark — I like the US Open skill set for Torrey and I think Clark flashed enough to jump in now at triple digits. He popped with his irons for the first time in ages and surprisingly was let down by his driver. Only the third time he’s lost strokes to the field off the tee in the past 12 months.
Adam Scott — Scott’s been fairly middling to kick off 2025, but the irons and short game have been excellent and he remains longer than most the field off the tee. We just haven’t seen him roll it successfully at all on the greens. He’s Top 10ed in both his Farmers appearances the past decade, gaining streaks putting in each, and even gained +3.9 putting in the 2021 US Open at Torrey Pines. If Scott can start making those putts again to match with his ball striking he’ll be a live long shot.