Farmers Final Bets, DK Notes, HOT LINKS
Don’t forget to read the full preview and course breakdown. Also, sub so it just gets sent to you!
READ: Farmers Insurance Picks, Bets & Full Preview
Tambo and run through the final bets, what we’re doing in One and Done, then debate the best DraftKings builds before going through the ownership, drafting lineups against each our and how the wet weather may affect Round 1 and the course splits.
WATCH:Farmers DraftKings Picks, Lineups, Final Bets, One and Done
Fienberg and I run through the odds board and mix it up about our picks and the feeling rooting against history with wanting Burns to win vs Dunlap at the AMEX
WATCH: Farmers Insurance Open Picks, Bets, Preview, One and Done | American Express Recap
And if you missed the research show, SHAME!!!! But there’s still time to check it out. I walked through the course and field and showed off some of the new features at Fantasy National.
WATCH: Farmers Insurance Open Picks, Research, Course Preview, Guess The Betting Odds
Farmers Bets
Ludwig Aberg 19/1 — OK, I’m in. This is a bombers track. And one which rewards bombers with a modicum of accuracy. It feels like he was built for this event.
Min Woo Lee 30/1 — I usually bet guys who just need to make a few putts and the win will be theirs. Min Woo is an outlier in the sense. You expect him to be tops or near top of the field off the tee. And his short game and putting has been off the charts amazing for the past year. But his iron play can sink him pretty quickly. If he can simply break even with the field on approach and just keep his baseline everywhere else, he’s going to smash this week.
Keegan Bradley 35/1 — The last time we saw Keegan he was blowing it down the stretch at The Sony. It’s strange how our minds can twist an excellent week (T2) into something that sounds bad. Through two events in 2024, he’s gaining an average of +3.75 SG: APP while producing classic Keegan putting splits: Lost 5.8 strokes at the Sentry; Gained 4.6 at the Sony. The Farmers is the event Keegan’s experienced the most success in his career without a victory. With three Top 5s in his past six starts — finishing Top 15 in ball striking in each of those starts — one hot putting week and he can improve on his solo second from a year ago.
Sahith Theegala 45/1 — While accuracy has been a proven skill at this course, enough distance and short game can more than make up for it as we’ve seen through the years. And Sahith has that in spades. Plus, like Rahm, Homa, Morikawa, and other, Theegala just may be another on the list to always back in California. He won in Napa during the fall, and posted a T4/T6 at Torrey and RIV a year ago. Even churned out a T25 here back in 2022.
Ryan Fox 70 (5 Places) — I waste money on Fox every time time he plays in the US. Hoping that changes this time around. His opening swing in the Middle East wasn’t much to revel in, but he went though an amazing stretch in Europe in the lead up to the Ryder against stacked fields with a T3 in Ireland, T2 at the Dunhill Links, and the big win at Wentworth. Additionally, he’d sure be something in one of those long drive competitions. That can’t hurt at Torrey. Semikawa
Sam Ryder 110/1 (5 Places) — It was an uninspiring kick off to golf for Ryder, but he worked out enough kinks to survive the cut and shake off the rust. If you recall, Ryder had a pretty large lead in the final round last year; then the CBS broadcast interviewed his parents and his game went in the toilet. Either way, at a venue which rewards experience, Ryder’s posted a T4 and T7 in two of the past three years. Plus, of all players in this field, he tops all in SG: Approach one the past 24 rounds
Sam Stevens 200/1 (5 Places) — Not one player in the field has gained more total strokes versus the field, per event than Sam Stevens on courses over 7,400 yards. He faltered Sunday at the Amex, but had put together 7 quality round to kick off 2024, and did post a T13 on this site a year ago.
Taiga Semikawa 300/1 (5 Places) —The former No. 1 ranked amateur has started to get acclimated with the PGA TOUR. While the results have been inconsistent he’s flashed one major skill: Driving. He’s the only player in this who is Top 35 in both driving distance and accuracy over the past 24 rounds and sneakily been in the top 20% of the field in proximity from 175-200 and putting from 10’-15’. It’s reaching, sure. But it’s 300/1. Also took him +1475 as low Asian. There’s no Min WOO in that market btw.
Ra's al Ghul open
I didn’t dig much into the DP World event, but I’ve added Alex Fitzpatrick to “my guy” list along with Lawrence. As long as they’re reasonable odds in weaker fields, I’ll bet them.
DraftKings and Showdown
Just remember, for the first two days of showdown, just play guys at the North Course. Keep it simple. Here’s a list of the 6K guys I like this week. Shocker, they’re basically all bombers…
Stats c/o FantasyNational.com
For showdown Round 1 Tosti, Barjon, and Tarren are all on the North Course, with Tosti and Tarren starting on No. 1 which gives you a better shot at birdie streak.
Good Luck
— PM