Farmers Insurance Picks, Bets & Full Preview

The Picks and Bets show is OUT!!!!!! Featuring a thumbnail which may now be in my Top 10 ever. I love it so much. Geoff and I dig into the names that popped out to us first thing, along with recapping our Burns bets going up in flames, Dunlap’s win at AMEX, and I explain how if Jason Dufner pulls a Chris Kirk from the rocks on 17 I may not be here writing this now.

WATCH: Farmers Insurance Open Picks, Bets, Preview, One and Done | American Express Recap

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And if you missed the research show, SHAME!!!! But there’s still time to check it out. I walked through the course and field and showed off some of the new features at Fantasy National. 

WATCH: Farmers Insurance Open Picks, Research, Course Preview, Guess The Betting Odds

Field & Coverage

• Field: 156 Players

• Cut: Top 65 and Ties

• Lineup Lock: Wednesday, January 24

• Defending Champ: Max Homa

In its series of Ls over the past 18 months, there is one decision they continue to get correct: Starting the Farmers Insurance Open on Wednesday. This way it doesn’t conflict with the NFL conference championship games and Saturday afternoon (evening on the East Coast) can provide the thrilling conclusion with no football within 12 hour of winner hoisting a novelty check. 

I very much enjoy (Irony. I don’t) when there’s a simple solution to an issue and they’ve said it out loud, but just haven’t connected the dots. Now, maybe I’m the fool here, and am not privy to the intricacies of the TV contacts; but, hear me out on this; if you’re scared to compete with the NFL on one four Sundays in January, how is it, that when you have the product with the lower amount of interest (to put it lightly) you’re not avoiding going head-to-head with football every week in January? The Sony Open had a thrilling final last week. I know this because I was one of 76 viewers. 

Just make everything until the championship games Wednesday-Sunday. It can’t be that hard to figure out. Yes, NFL runs games on Saturdays in the that window. From my view, competing one day instead of two seems like the better idea. Then you can switch back to Sunday finishes at Pebble Beach, then keep Phoenix as the lead in to the Super Bowl and we’re off. 

To reiterate, in case you suffer from GRR — goldfish reading retention — The PGA Tour (well, CBS) wants none of that NFL Sunday smoke, so the 2023 Farmers Insurance Open will start on WEDNESDAY and end on SATURDAY this week. I mention this in BOLD and CAPSSSSS because of the overflow of people who have reached out to me on Wednesday evenings the past few years asking me if I knew the event was starting that day. 

I guess not capitalizing the days of the week was the issue. I hope. That, or people are merely simpletons and many of wonder how they’re able to fictionally keep themselves alive. 

This is most certainly appointment viewing, though. If you consider the Hawaii events and AMEX the birdiefest pre-season, The Farmers is true start of the PGA season. And don’t let internet golf losers tell you any differently. While they’re hating Torrey Pines from a condo paid for by their parents for being “too boring,”sensible people love it. We all know the course from the US Opens and Tiger Woods moments, and it’s really the course which elevated Jon Rahm to elite status. Plus, it’s kinda hard, and viewers like a challenge with a close finish. Who knew?

I figured the field this year would be way down from normal because of the scheduling. But this four week stretch may actually be the best four weeks in a row for the PGA this year. Normally, Torrey draws a solid field, everyone skips the pitiful Pebble Pro-Am, and goes back-to-back for Phoenix and Riv. When Pebble got the bump to elevated status this season, it made sense for top players to skip either this week or Phoenix. But the Waste Management field appears as strong as it was pre-elevated status in 2023: Scheffler, Viktor, Xander, Homa, JT, Finau, Burns, Rickie, Sahith, Cam Young are already confirmed. So it’s banger field, after banger field until we all get a beautiful rest week with the Mexico Open. 

Max Homa, Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay, Collin Morikawa, and Ludvig Aberg headline the field outside of San Diego. With Min Woo Lee, Sungjae Im, Keegan Bradley, Sahith Theegala, Tony Finau, Eric Cole, Jason Day, Hideki Matsuyama, Shane Lowry, Justin Rose, Sepp Straka, and Luke List joining them. 

Ryan Fox, Nicolai Hojgaard, Francesco Molinari, and, my guy, the Polish Giraffe Adrian Meronk N Rolla will al be making their 2024 PGA debuts. This quartet all played in Dubai this past week. Meronk churning out consecutive Top 10s in the Middle East (T10/2nd), Hojgaard went T25/T7, while Molinari went T5/MC. The Kiwi, Fox, was (T14) followed up by a T31 result this weekend. 

In return from injury watch: Both Will Zalatoris and Daniel Berger made the cut. Maverick McNealy was a disaster in Palm Beach after making the weekend in Honolulu. Gary Woodland was MC in his return to golf. Oh, Jhonattan Vegas came back too. I used him on DraftKings and he bogey the final hole Saturday to miss the cut by a stroke. Of note, he’s made the cut here the past four years, eight of the last 10, and played in the Farmers every year since 2010. I almost wrote, “dude’s fucking old” then I noticed he’s the same age as me. Yes, I know what you’re now thinking. I just don’t want to think it.

The event is split between the Torrey Pines North and South courses the first two days, before shifting to just the South Course for the final two rounds. Of note: The North course is about 500 yards shorter and much easier. than the South Course. There’s only shot link at the South Course, so any stats you see this will be only be from that course. 

13 of the past 15 winners have posted a top 10 at this event prior to winning. Jon Rahm won in his first start in 2017. Scott Stallings in 2014 was the other exception. 

Top Players without a Top 10 at Torrey Pines (including US Open)

• Cantlay

• Straka

• Fox (First time)

• Aberg (First Time)

• Hojgaard (First Time)

• Min Woo (First Time)

• Meronk (Only US Open)

• Grillo

• Schenk

• Cole

• Moore (T11!)

• Svensson

HOW TO WIN (helps being a bomber)

Recent Course Horses

     *Jason Day: Top 10 in consecutive Farmers (total +9.7 SG:P)

     *Sungjae Im: Top 10 in consecutive Farmers (total: +10.0 SG:P)

     *Hideki Matsuyama: Top 30 in consecutive Farmers (total: +11.1 SG: T2G)

     *Justin Rose: Top 20 in consecutive Farmers (total: +7.8 SG:APP, lost SG:OTT  in both)

Last three winners (Homa, List and Reed) showed the ability to show well early in the season prior (no need to get into "mid-season" form)

     *Homa: Three top 15's in his first four tournaments the calendar year prior 

     *List: Three top 30's in his first four tournaments the calendar year prior (10th at Farmers)

     *Reed: Two top 6's in his first three tournaments the calendar year prior

Players who excelled in the early going last season …

     *Patrick Cantlay: Top 20 in six of his first eight tournaments in 2023 calendar year

     *Collin Morikawa: Three top 6's in his first three tournaments in 2023 calendar year

     *Xander Schuaffle: Three straight top 15's to open the 2023 calendar year

Key Stats

• Strokes Gained: Approach

• Driving Distance Gained

• Proximity Gained: 200+ Yards

• Strokes Gained: Around The Green

• Par 4s Gained: 450-500 Yards

Mayo’s Key Stats powered by FantasyNational.com

Five of the past Six tournaments have seen strong long-iron play correlate to success

• 2023: Each of the Top 4 gained in proximity from 200+

• 2022: All top-10 finishers gained in proximity from 200+

• 2021: Seven of the top-9 finishers gained in proximity from 200+

• 2019: Justin Rose won and was second best in the field from 200+

• 2018: All top-11 finishers gained in proximity from 200+

Top 10 players since the start of 2023 in proximity from 200+: Hoge, Chuck Hoffman, Woodland, Suh, Cole, List, FInau, Eckroat, Davis Thompson, Keegan. 

Top Players over the past 24 Rounds: Svensson, Hoffman, Taylor Moore, Champ and Spaun.

Course(s)

Course: Torrey Pines South (Three Rounds)

• Par: 72

• Yardage: 7,765

• Greens: Poa

• Shot Tracker: Yes

DraftKings Showdown Streak: The splits aren't as drastic as the North course, but don’t ignore it. Holes 8-10 all easier than average with #9 being the third easiest on the course (31.4% birdie-or-better rate). Those playing back-to-front get the second easiest hole in #18 (36.3% birdie-or-better), but #17 owns a higher bogey than birdie rate and #1 has a bogey-or-worse rate that is nearly double that of the birdie-or-better number.

Par 3 (4): Average distance -- 208 yards

The two easier 3's are on the front (Holes 3 and 8) while the two on the back both see more than twice as many golfers score over par as score under par.

Par 4 (10): Average distance -- 457 yards

The four toughest holes on the course are Par 4s, all of which carry a bogey rate over 25% and a double-or-worse rate north of 3%. Seven of the Par 4s measure over 450 yards. 

Par 5 (4): Average distance -- 593 yards

The four easiest holes on the course with a birdie rate over 30% each. Hole #18 could determine things: 7th highest double-or-worse rate (2.1%) with the 2nd highest eagle rate (2.4%).

Course: Torrey Pines North (One Round)

• Par: 72

• Yardage: 7,258

• Greens: Bentgrass

• Shot Tracker: No

DraftKings Showdown Streak: The advantage could be reasonably significant this week. Holes 9-10-11 all play more than 0.2 strokes on average under par and are three of the six easiest scoring holes on the course. Golfers going back-to-front have to deal with #18 (3rd toughest hole). Hole 17 is easy, but with #18 (8% birdie rate) in the middle and #1 no freebie (8th easiest),  most wrap streaks are likely to occur for those starting on the front.

Par 3 (4): Average distance -- 215 yards

These are four of the six toughest holes to birdie (all under 9.5%), including the toughest hole on the course (241-yard #3, 4.5% birdie rate and 27.6% bogey-or-worse)

Par 4 (10): Average distance -- 426 yards

Four Par 4's have a double-or-worse rate north of 1%. The course has three Par 4's in the first four holes when working front-to-back ... those three holes own a cumulative score of +0.28.

Par 5 (4): Average distance -- 534 yards

The four easiest holes on the course, all holding a birdie-or-better over 44%

DraftKings Showdown Recap

Since the field alternates between courses for the first two days, target bombers at the easier North Course for DraftKings Showdown purposes. If your golfers can start on Hole No. 1 instead of Hole No. 10, that’d be a big advantage, too, as there’s a stretch of easier holes from 9-12. There is one drawback, however: there’s no ShotLink at the North Course and minimal cameras. So trying to follow what is going on will be an exercise is futility.

With larger greens and shorter holes, GIR rate and scrambling percentage at the North Course are above the PGA Tour average. Three of the Par 5s on the North Course also generate more eagles than any Par 5 on the South. And, it’s over 500 yards shorter.

Past Winners

• 2023: Max Homa -13

• 2022: Luke List -15

• 2021: Patrick Reed -14

• 2020: Marc Leishman -15

• 2019: Justin Rose -21

• 2018: Jason Day -10

WINNER NOTES

2023: Max Homa (-13, two clear of Keegan Bradley)

(Homa's second event of the season, finished 3rd at Sentry. He gained 4.5+ strokes putting at both the Sentry and Farmer's, the only time in his career gaining like that in consecutive events)

- Maintained his two-stroke lead by shooting a 66 (his best round of the tournament and one that matched what Bradley did on Sunday)

--> Bradley showed growth: -1 on Thursday/Friday, -10 on Saturday/Sunday

• 5 of the top 6 finishers lost distance off the tee (the top 12 finishers all gained Fairways on the field)

2022: Luke List (-15, beat Will Zalatoris in a playoff after making up 5 strokes with a Sunday 66)

• Highlight: 66 on Sunday (his best round of the weekend, was five back of Zalatoris)

(List's second event of the season, finished 22nd at The Amex)

- List showed growth: In Round 1, he was +1 through four holes on the South course. Over the weekend, he played those four holes at -4.

-List lost strokes putting on the field from inside of 5',15-20', 20-25' and 25+' ... but he made up for it by gaining a tournament best 5.2 SG:P from 10-15'

- The top 6 in SG:APP all cashed top 20 paychecks (four of them finishing T-6 or better)

2021: Patrick Reed (-14, five clear of five players)

(Reed's third event of the season, 21st at TOC and MC at The Amex -- he gained over 3.5 strokes putting in both of those events and gained 4.5 in his Farmers win)

- Reed was the first round leader with a 64 on the North Course. That great round along with a pair of weekend eagles on the South Course's #6 allowed him to overcome bogeying four times in a six hole stretch on Saturday (Holes 11-16)

- 8 of the top 9 on the final leaderboard gained on Proximity in the 75-100 yard window (Jon Rahm was the exception, but he gained 20+ feet in all the other Proximity buckets)

• Highlight: 64 on Thursday (co-leader after Round 1)

2020: Marc Leishman (-15)

• Highlight: 65 on Sunday, his best round of the week and tied for the best round on the final day

2019: Justin Rose (-21)

• Highlight: 63 on Thursday (four rounds in the 60s)

2018: Jason Day (-10, won three-way playoff with Alex Noren and Ryan Palmer)

• Also won the event in 2015 (four-way playoff: Harris English, JB Holmes and Scott Stallings)

• Highlight: Was eight back after Thursday, rebounded from a first round 73 with a second round 64

Notes

Torrey Pines South is the longest course in the annual PGA Tour rotation. 

12 of the past 18 winners at the Farmers have finished the season inside the top 30 in Driving Distance, and the ones who didn’t gain a ridiculous amount of strokes putting on the field — hello, Patrick Reed — Homa finished 62nd last year in driving distance.

Three things to target from your picks: driving distance, iron play from 175-plus yards and around-the-green. While a short smacker like Brandt Snedeker has experienced a lot of success at Torrey Pines, most of the leaderboard is generally congested with bombers who don’t have the yips from just off the green.

Very rarely does Strokes Gained: Around The Green factor into the winning score. However, because of the tiny greens on the South Course, pairing an average-or-better short game with a big driver is the way to crack the Sunday leaderboard. Not the only way, but the path of least resistance. Obviously, fairways + distance off the tee will equal a slew of GIRs, which would be optimal, but that’s just simply unfeasible for three rounds on this course with the average scrambling percentage hovering around 52%.

If you feel the need to put shorter hitters in your lineups, make sure they gain strokes off the tee through their accuracy and know how to hit a long iron. There are six par 4s measuring over 450 yards and five of them are inside the six most difficult holes on Torrey Pines South and all played over par. Holes No. 12 and No. 15 are two of the 50 toughest holes on the PGA Tour almost every year, majors included.

Stats c/o FantasyNational.com

The driving accuracy percentage of players who made the cut generally hovers around 50%. Both courses sport some of the most difficult fairways to hit every season. Between both courses, since 2012, Torrey Pines South and Firestone CC South were the only venues ranked inside the top 10 of lowest driving accuracy percentage each season. While no longer played on the PGA Tour, a glance at past performances from Firestone CC is encouraged to find some crossover hints. It’s worth noting, Tiger has won eight times apiece at each of those courses.

Tony Finau, Jason Day, Justin Rose, Max Homa, and Sungjae Im have the most Strokes Gained: Total over the past five years at the Farmers Insurance Open.

Although Poa Annua putting surfaces tend to run slower on average, expect greens on the South Course to run faster because of the windy and dry conditions. After renovations in 2016, there’s actually a split in grass type between the putting surfaces at the courses when the North Course switched to bentgrass. Both courses average more three-putts than the PGA Tour average.

In a minimum of five weighted rounds at the South Course, only three players are averaging at least one stroke gained putting per round who are in the field this week: Justin Suh, Aaron Baddeley, and Michael Kim. Sam Stevens and Erik Barnes are both +1.75 or better in just three career rounds. 

Using Fantasy National’s new “Spike %” tool filter, you can set the amount of SG per round you want set the limit at and see the amount of times a player is equal or above that number in a single round.

(Spike% is set at 2.0 SG:PUTT per round at Torrey Pines South. Obviously, some players don’t have much a sample to work from.)

Stats c/o FantasyNational.com

Picks & Bets

Ludwig Aberg 19/1 

OK, I’m in. This is a bombers track. And one which rewards bombers with a modicum of accuracy. It feels like he was built for this event.

Min Woo Lee 30/1

I usually bet guys who just need to make a few putts and the win will be theirs. Min Woo is an outlier in the sense. You expect him to be tops or near top of the field off the tee. And his short game and putting has been off the charts amazing for the past year. But his iron play can sink him pretty quickly. If he can simply break even with the field on approach and just keep his baseline everywhere else, he’s going to smash this week.

Keegan Bradley 35/1

The last time we saw Keegan he was blowing it down the stretch at The Sony. It’s strange how our minds can twist an excellent week (T2) into something that sounds bad. Through two events in 2024, he’s gaining an average of +3.75 SG: APP while producing classic Keegan putting splits: Lost 5.8 strokes at the Sentry; Gained 4.6 at the Sony. The Farmers is the event Keegan’s experienced the most success in his career without a victory. With three Top 5s in his past six starts — finishing Top 15 in ball striking in each of those starts — one hot putting week and he can improve on his solo second from a year ago. 

Sam Stevens 200/1 (5 Places)

Not one player in the field has gained more total strokes versus the field, per event than Sam Stevens on courses over 7,400 yards. He faltered Sunday at the Amex, but had put together 7 quality round to kick off 2024, and did post a T13 on this site a year ago. 

Other bets already in:

• Sahith Theegala 45/1

• Ryan Fox 70/1 (5 Places)

• Taiga Semikawa 300/1 (5 Places) Also low Asian at 15/1 (Min Woo not in that market btw)

More on those guys here

Others on the radar at the moment:

• List 75/1

• Montgomrey 90/1

— PM