22 Masters SUNDAY PREVIEW
Trendz, Injuries and Masters SG Data
MAJOR SEASON ONE AND DONE
There’s a NEWWWWWW One and Done starting at The Masters — $100 to join; $10K to first place. It ends at the Open Championship in July. You can have multiple entries, SOOOOOO, go get one now, then try to win a free entry from me. To get in draw.
PLAY: MAJOR SEASON ONE AND DONE (Starts at Masters)
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Masters BETS
Adam Scott 70/1
That’s all I got so far.
MASTERS CONTENT
Research Show w/ Justin Ray
DK Milly Makwer Picks w/ Rasa and Tambo
Bets + Picks w/ Fienberg, Cust + Secret Guest (MONDAY)
Tournament Write Up (MONDAY)
Player by Player Breakdown w/ Rick Gahmen (Tuesday)
Final Bets, Ownership + Viewer Chat LIVE WED 12pm ET
Cut Sweat LIVE (Friday)
Key Stats
Strokes Gained: Approach
Course History
Strokes Gained: Off The Tee
Strokes Gained: Short Game
Driving Distance
Mayo’s Key Stats powered by FantasyNational.com
Course
Course: Augusta National
Yardage: 7,435
Par: 72
Greens: Bentgrass
There have been changes to two of the holes this year. The difficult number No. 11 has scraped most of the trees from the right hand side of the hole and just left three trees. Yes. Three trees. And the Par 5 15th has been lengthened by 20 yards.
Winners
2021: Hideki Matsuyama -10
2020: Dustin Johnson -20
2019: Tiger Woods -13
2018: Patrick Reed -15
2017: Sergio Garcia -9
2016: Danny Willett -5
2015: Jordan Spieth -18
2014: Bubba Watson -8
2013: Adam Scott -9
2012: Bubba Watson -10
PUTTING
There are 41 bunkers and six water hazards and a whole lotta pine straw scattered across the grounds. Unless there’s an untimely tree in the way, however, the pine straw isn’t the end of the world. The bentgrass greens are around Tour average in size; the major difference are the wild undulations. These are some of the most hilly and fastest putting surfaces the players will encounter all year. Cameron Smith, Adam Scott, Bryson DeChambeau, Zach Johnson, and Matthew Fitzpatrick have the most Strokes Gained: Putting per round on Fast + Lighting fast greens since the beginning of the 2020 season.
TOOLS: 20% Off Fantasy National Tools & Stats
If you keep those perimeters and isolate the putting surfaces solely to bentgrass greens, Mac Hughes, Patrick Cantlay, Kevin Na, Bryson DeChambeau and Adam Scott come out on top.
TRENDZ
Trends are more for fun talking points, but it’s worth noting nine straight Masters champions HAD at least two Top 15 finishes in their three tournaments leading into the event before Hideki blew that up a year ago. Still, nine of the last ten ain't bad, and based on that criteria, the winner will be either Scottie Scheffler, Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka, Daniel Berger, Shane Lowry, Sam Burns, Tyrrell Hatton, Russell Henley, Billy Horschel, or Kevin Kisner. Angel Cabrera (2009) was the last player to place outside the Top 35 in his final pre-Master’s tune up (MC at the Shell Houston Open. He actually MC the two tournaments prior)
Over the past five Masters played on a normal schedule, here is the average score by round for a player that cashed a top-10 check that week:
- Round 1: 70.8, Round 2: 71.0, Round 3: 70.2, Round 4: 69.8
And how about this trend:
- In the past four regularly schedule Masers, just 9.3% of players to finish with at least a share of a top-10 had their best round of the tournament on Thursday
It might it be worth holding a bullet or two in terms of outright bets and getting involved after Thursday. It could be re-upping on a guy you already bet or a player you believed in pre-tournament that was just a little off in the first round and now has a number in the betting market that is more appealing. Recent history is telling us that patience has the potential to pay at Augusta, so use that to your advantage after studying what happens during the first 18 holes.
Last season (April Masters)
- 9 of the top 11 finishers were top-35 players in SG: Par 5 for the calendar year leading into The Masters and just 2 of them were top-45 in SG: P … we build up this tournament more than others and the world as a whole takes more notice, but don’t lose track of the basics: SG:APP is still king.
What does form have to do with it?
Past 10 (April) winners / Top 20’s in March ahead of their Masters victory
- 2021 Hideki Matsuyama: API (18th)
- 2019 Tiger Woods: Only played once in March, but was top-15 in both February events
- 2018 Patrick Reed: API (7th), Valspar (2nd)
- 2017 Sergio Garcia: WGC – Mexico (12th)
- 2016 Danny Willett: WGC – Cadillac (3rd)
- 2015 Jordan Spieth: WGC – Cadillac (17th), Valspar (1st), Valero (2nd)
- 2014 Bubba Watson: WGC – Cadillac (2nd)
- 2013 Adam Scott: WGC – Cadillac (3rd)
- 2012 Bubba Watson: WGC – Cadillac (2nd), API (4th)
- 2011 Charl Schwartzel: Honda (14th)
Golfers who had multiple top-20 finishes in the primary March events (API, The PLAYERS and Valspar):
(The statistic notes are just reference points to indicate form. Obviously we are talking tiny sample sizes, but over the past decade, March form has been tied to wearing the green jacket in April).
- Viktor Hovland (2nd at API, 9th at THE PLAYERS)
o March: 2nd on tour in Proximity
- Max Homa (17th at API, 13th at THE PLAYERS)
o March: 4th on tour in GIRs gained
- Russell Henley (13th at both API and THE PLAYERS)
o March: Led the tour in SG:APP
- Shane Lowry (13th at THE PLAYERS, 12th at Valspar)
o March: 8th on tour in SG: Par 5
- Tommy Fleetwood (20th at API, 16th at Valspar)
o Made over $100,000 in all three of those events
- Sam Burns (9th at API, won Valspar)
o March: 3rd on tour in SG:SG
- Tyrell Hatton (2nd at API, 13th at THE PLAYERS)
o March: Led the tour in BoB Gained
Revisionist history
Where did they excel the season PRIOR to winning the Masters?
- 2021 winner Hideki Matsuyama: 8th in bogey avoidance, 12th in GIR
- 2019 winner Tiger Woods: 6th in bogey avoidance, 4th in scrambling
- 2018 winner Patrick Reed: 5th in SG:SG, 20th in scrambling
- 2017 winner Sergio Garcia: 29th in bogey avoidance, 13th in GIR
- 2016 winner Danny Willett: Played more in Europe than the US
- 2015 winner Jordan Spieth: 31st in bogey avoidance, 8th in scrambling
- 2014 winner Bubba Watson: 6th in GIR
- 2013 winner Adam Scott: 16th in bogey avoidance, 6th in GIR
- 2012 winner Bubba Watson: 4th in GIR, 21st in bogey avoidance
- 2011 winner Charl Schwartzel: 10th in bogey avoidance, 19th in scrambling
Maybe it’s something, maybe it’s nothing, but that’s a lot of success in either hitting Greens In Regulation or Scrambling when out of position. Patrick Cantlay (+2500) was the only player in the world last season to rank top-20 in both GIR and Scrambling (he was top-7 in both metrics!). The other players that ranked top-50 in BOTH stats:
- Jon Rahm (+800)
- Justin Thomas (+1400)
- Dustin Johnson (+1600)
- Russell Henley (+3500)
- Louie Oosthuizen (+4500)
- Shane Lowry (+5500)
- Abe Ancer (+7000)
MASTERS RAFFLE
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Here’s the Masters Raffle on the site…
MASTER INJURIES
Phil Mickelson is out indefinitely with an injured ego. Harris English will also sidelined with a hip injury. This we know. Now here’s where things get tricky, there is a large grouping of players whose injury status is relatively vague in terms how healthy they actually are. While this is an issue in the NFL, NBA and all other Major sports, golfers aren’t required to disclose anything about themselves if they don’t feel like it.
Tiger Woods, you may have heard of him, appears to be doing all he can to make his first competitive start since the 2020 November Masters. Tiger has not committed to being in the field the as of yet but is on the grounds at Augusta testing his leg, seeing if he has the stamina to make it through four rounds of pain-free, competitive golf. It does sound like Tiger is going to let us know whether he’s in or out before first tee on Thursday however. Despite not playing in an event since 2020, I highly doubt Tiger is going to play and not be competitive, that’s just not Tiger. He’s never missed a Masters cut since turning pro, you really think he’s going to rush back to an event with no warm up just to he can compete with Sandy Lyle for dead last? Come on. If Tiger says he’s in, I have few worries he’ll be competitive.
Can’t say the same about the defending champ, Hideki Matsuyama. He withdrew with a neck injury after DraftKings lineups locked at THE PLAYERS championship in March. That didn’t make the 15% of people who rostered him very pleased knowing their money was lit on fire about 10 minutes into the tournament. He skipped Match Play and returned at last week’s the Valero Texas Open. He at least got a round in before withdrawing from the event Friday morning before the start of the second round. He’s likely to tee off this week, and at $9,300 expect Hideki to be the lowest owned player above $8,000.
If you’re playing single entry or three-max entry tournaments or even just one lineup, there’s zero reason to consider him. And while I personally am not using him, there is a compelling case to be made if you’re maxing out the Millionaire Maker (playing 150 lineups) that using the Lou Bega method and having a little bit of Hideki in your life, is actually quite smart. But again, no one knows how injured he actually is. Chances are he’s 50/50 to withdraw or at least be terrible in playing through injury based on everything we’ve seen the past month. But we’re wrong about things all the time. Hideki could be fine, and if he is, and finishes in the Top 10, he’s likely to be on the winning DraftKings roster. Ben Rasa, who won $100,000+ at the 2018 Masters by being one of the few to roster Patrick Reed, talked me through logic of using some Hideki in your lineups. Now, Ben is fine having every Hideki lineup being dead by 1pm Thursday, if you aren’t stay far away.
Paul Casey didn’t withdraw from the Match Play, he merely played two holes the first day, then conceded the remaining holes over the next three days. Casey said he was suffering from back spasms after yanking two into the hazard on that second hole and wasn’t seen in Austin again, outside of the trainers room, that is. As anyone who has suffered from back problems, unless this is a chronic issue, he may be completely fine. Probably is. Or he may bend down to tie his shoes and end up in a heap on the floor. Trust me, that a real thing.
Bryson DeChambeau ($9,100) has now played the past two weeks and Webb Simpson ($7,500) played the three previous, both after sitting out over two month. While they may be healthy, there’s just been one problem: They haven’t been any good. Bryson didn’t win a match in Austin and missed the cut at the Valero. Webb MC’d in his first start at THE PLAYERS, finished T48 at Valspar, and won only one match at the Match Play. It’s worth noting he won that match despite shooting over par.
Then there’s Abraham Ancer. He withdrew from his home event last week with the dreaded “undisclosed reason”. Broken hand, COVID, Hungover? We’ll never know.
FOOTBALL!!!!!!!!
It looks like DraftKings is offering DFS contests for the USFL. I realize that likely isn’t exciting, but you need to understand, these jabroni leagues are where you can make some serious money. We’ve been anticipate this coming at Run The Sims, and since Justin used the XFL as a printing press, he has projections for DFS and player props good to go.
Obviously, Week 1 is a lot of educated guess work, but once there are actual games, the optimizer and projections get more and more precise every week. There’s an early bird price available NOW. Get it before you see GPP winning screenshots and then pay $100 for it.
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F1
Also, at Run The Sims, we’ve developed projections based off race simulations. I don’t really know exactly how that’s done (not my scene) but so far they’ve been amazingly profitable.
My co-founder at the site, the one who creates the projections, has alreayd cashed in on DraftKings with the F1 projections….
and the best part… ALL F1 projections are FREEEEE at Run The Sims right now. Just sign up for a FREE ACCOUNT and they’re all yours. I believe they gte poplated after qualification.
JOIN: RUN THE SIMS FOR FREE F1 PROJECTIONS
SPIETH
Want a case for Spieth beyond course history? I dount I’ll get there, but it’s always fun to come up for argumeents for players you’re not likely to take.
Spieth DeepDive
It’s hard to believe it, but Jordan Spieth has become the leader of #TeamNoPutt, and the Masters, at least on DK, could hinge on whether he can start to make some putts.
Losing at Pebble Beach in part because of his inability to make a putt, Jordan struggled at both Phoenix and Genesis, neither historically good Jordan tracks (even Phoenix, despite starting his comeback in 2021, has never been good), before sitting till Sawgrass. Caught in the wrong wave and at a course he doesn’t play well at, he missed the cut, before heading to Austin.
In his two matches Thursday and Friday, Spieth couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn with his putter, making less than 5 putts over those two rounds, and at Valero, it’s not any better.
Jordan was dialed in with his irons, gaining 6 Strokes with them, positive with his driver (2.4SG), and as always, positive around the greens. But, he lost over 7 strokes on the greens, a truly Keegan-esque performance from the usually dependable putter. But, it’s putting, which can flip at any moment, and it’s Jordan at Augusta.
If the putter flips – sitting at 142nd going into Valero for the season – then the fact that Spieth has finally found some ability with the driver will help him navigate a course he knows very, very well, but if he can’t get his putter going, then it’s going to be a boring and uninteresting week for him – but not for the same reasons as the post-2018 Masters collapse in his form.
The case to fade is easy for anyone who has seen his putting stroke this year – it’s been brutal, and he hasn’t even been close to hitting the hole. But if he gets to Augusta and something clicks, who knows what might happen if he’s getting to play from the fairways most holes.
Yes, his Sunday -5 might draw some extra interest, but even with that round – a dominant iron performance and losing 2.7 strokes putting – we’re no closer to knowing the right answer.
At $9800 and wedged between Cam Smith and Xander, and coming off a brutal stretch of results, Jordan might finally be somewhat playable and underowned, unlike in 2019 and the November 2020 Masters, when he was just a horrible play who still got ownership because of his name.
To play or fade Jordan might be the swing choice of the week, and it all comes down to one question – can the new leader of #TeamNoPutt find something on the greens again?
MASTERS SG
Oh, our good friend Nelson Adcock compiled the SG data from last years masters BY HAND. Nelson is responsible for the CUT SWEAT twitter account and site, which you should follow if you care about thing liek 6/6%s.
He may have all four rounds of SG numbers, but I only saved the three round files. Still, it’s three more rounds than you’ll anyhwere else.
— PM