Zurich Classic Cheatsheet
Not going to lie, there’s no real analysis behind any of these selections. I just bet on teams I want to win. Hopefully this strategy works better than the hours of research I usually put in. Also, I spoke with Sky at the end of my Zurich DK Picks show and decided to tail him on most his EUR wagers. At least it potentially gives us parents of very young children something to watch early on Saturday and Sunday morning.
2022 ZURICH CONTENT HUB
Bets + Picks w/ Fienberg
DK Picks w/ Skylar Hoke
NFL DRAFT
As most of you know, I’m no NFL Draft Expert. Strangely, knowing this has made me make some good cash on Draft bets over the years. Turns out, when I simply listen to the people who know about things and take their word, I do better than when I rely on my own analysis. Go figure. I’ll have the full Mock Draft with Ray and Thor out over the weekend, that’s always one of the most fun shows of the year. But for draft prep, there’s no one better than Emory Hunt. He was on Tuesday’s show. On tomorrow’s show, Jeff Ratcliffe is on to give his take on QB needs and we really dig in to Deebo Samuel and the NFL WR Trade market at the moment. Since you’re here, you get FIRST ACCESS to the vid.
DRAFT PLAYER GRADE w/ Emroy Hunt
TEAM NEEDS + WR MARKET w/ Jeff Ratcliffe
THE TIDBITS
Most golf people are taking the week off (I wish I would have thought of that tbh), but Tambo, despite not doing the FGD show, complied the best from around the industry in one easy thread.
Go give a shout out to our fav Kenny Kim too. Kenny’s still recovering right now and positive vibes can only help!
GALAXY BRAIN: Team Event
This team event is fun, but it’s goofy when it comes to both DFS events and the outright betting market. Do you ride one golfer and hope he carries the team? Do you try to blend skill sets in an effort to create a super golfer?
For the sake of creating a DFS lineup, I’m seeking elite skills in specific areas. Some key metrics that I’m plugging into Fantasy National this week …
- SG:APP … always important, even more so in a team event
- SG:P … putting isn’t sticky, but with half this tournament being best ball, it’s a bit more important than normal
- Proximity: 75-100 … The Par 5’s average over 560 yards and half the Par 4’s are under 400 yards, so those short irons are going to be on display
- Good Drives
- GIRs Gained
- Opps Gained
Assuming the weather holds, this is going to be a scoring fest. Simple logic. These guys are amazing, so when you have two of them working together, the birdies are going to be plentiful. There are 80 teams (160 golfers) in this field and like I said earlier, I want elite profiles. Not good. Elite. So I took a look at all the teams priced $7,000 or higher on DraftKings and charted which teams had at least one member rank top-16 (top 10%) in a selected stats. Of the 47 measured teams, 12 of them had a representative in the top-16 in at least three of the six categories (and three teams had a representative in at least four of the six categories). Those three teams …
- Hadwin/Svennson
- Morikawa/Hovland
- Zalatoris/Riley
So I locked those three in, thinking that I’m chasing win equity with them and filled out the rest of the lineup with $7,466 left per team. Team Knox features two golfers that rank inside the top-35 using these metrics, making them a goo value at $7,500, so I penciled them in. Team Kirk is an interesting skill blend: Kirk puts the team in position to score with his irons and Todd cans the putts. If there’s a teamwork value situation on the board this week … they might just be it.
That’s a nice five-team foundation, but now we only have $6,700 left for our final spot. All of the teams down here have flaws, but with Team Taylor boasting a pair of golfers that rank in the top quarter of the field in Good Drive rate, it stands to reason that they could generate enough looks to pay off this salary. Herman performed well at this tourney back in 2015 and Taylor has been reasonably consistent T2G over his past 10 events. Is there a low floor? Of course, but there also may be more of a ceiling than you’d assume at a sub-$7,000 price tag.
DraftKings Ownership
It’s tough to parse in a team event where there are only 80 teams, but don’t expect chalk to galvanize all in one place. I’m thinking 23-28% is probably the high end of ownership this week, which is still pretty low for a small field event.
TOOLS: 20% Off Fantasy National Tools & Stats
Morikawa/VIK
Team Chile
Will Z/Riley
Mav/Bramlett
Homa/Gooch
Team Canada
Good Luck
— PM