St. Jude Golf Bets, Weather, UD RD1 Pick'em + NFL Pickem Props

Bracket Part 2

Aug 14, 2024

Ludvig Aberg — The first leg of the playoffs has always been a great reward for players who have been on the cusp of a great season but couldn’t quite break through. Think Finau, Zalatoris, Reed over past decade. Outside of the Open and PGA, Aberg has been a T2G monster all year, and going back to a Par 70 is perfect for the Swede as he sits third in the filed in SG:P70 over the past 24 rounds.

Hideki Matsuyama — He did just enough in Paris to suck me back in. He’s finished T20 or better in Memphis in each of his past three starts and has been uber steady across the board T2G while picking up strokes on the field in five of his past six.

Davis Thompson — With Straka and Glover’s success the past few years at Southwind, there’s some sort of crossover with Deere Run to be found. So take not take the guy who won the John Deere this year. Going back to the US Open, Thompson has four T12 finishes in six starts and is only one of six players in the field who sit top 25 in both driving distance and accuracy.

Tom Hoge — There’s basically nothing in his past few starts which would lead to a win, but there are few in the field who can get as hot with the irons than Hoge, and after betting Rai all year only to stop any Wyndham, I can’t have the same thing happen with Hollywood Hoge.

Cameron Davis — If his putter hadn’t gone into a coma following his win at Rocket Mortgage, Davis’ odds would have crumbled. Yes, he missed the cut at a delayed, water logged Wyndham, but had gained at least +8.4 SG: T2G in each of his three starts previous. Throw in a T6 and T13 the past two years in Memphis and he’s the sleeping giant from the bottom of the odds board.

UNDERDOG ROUND 1

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NFL PROPS LEAGUE

I’m going to running a PME and Friends Season-Long Pick’em Props League with Underdog. Don’t have the rules and payouts finalized yet, but you’ll need to have to have your username registered via a google form in order to participate. You’ll also need an Underdog account. I’ll have more info over the next few weeks about the official rules, but you’re best to get preregistered now so you don’t forget.

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FedEx St. Jude Classic

Field: 70 Players | No Cut
First Tee: Thursday, August 15
Defending Champion: Lucas Glover

Course

TPC Southwind
Yardage: 7,243
Par: 70
Greens: Bermuda
Average Green Size: 4,300 sq. ft.
Number of Sand Bunkers: 75
Number of Holes Water is in Play: 11

Par 3’s (4) - Average distance: 184 yards

All four Par 3’s have a par rate north of 65% and offer little room for separation as a result: none of these holes rank as a top-5 or bottom-5 hole in terms of difficulty, you just take your par and move on.

Par 4’s (12) - Average distance: 450 yards

- Three of the four toughest holes on the course are back-9 Par 4’s, two of which carry a double-or-worse rate north of 5.5%.

Par 5’s (2) - Average distance: 555 yards

- Easily the two easiest holes on the course, with #16 seeing the majority of the field score under par (51.4%).

Key Stats

Strokes Gained: Approach
Par 4s Gained: 450-500 Yards
Opportunities Gained
Strokes Gained: Off The Tee

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Past Winners

FedEx St. Jude Invitational

2023: Lucas Glover -15
2022: Will Zalatoris -15
2021: Abraham Ancer -16
2020: Justin Thomas -13
2019: Brooks Koepka -16

St. Jude Classic

2018: Dustin Johnson -19
2017: Daniel Berger -10
2016: Daniel Berger -13
2015: Fabian Gomez -13
2014: Ben Crane -10
2013: Harris English -12
2012: Dustin Johnson -9
2011: Harrison Frazar -13
2010: Lee Westwood -10

NOTES

Despite playing 7,238 yards, after adjusting for par, TPC Southwind is covertly one of the longer courses on TOUR. Similar to RIV and Copperhead in that sense.

Previous to hosting the FedEx St. Jude Invitational, TPC Southwind was the host course for the St. Jude Classic. All of the “history” prior to 2019 for this tournament is actually from the WGC Bridgestone Invitational, which was played at Firestone CC. Memphis has now been a PGA TOUR stop every year since 1958.

Since the 2004 course overhaul, more than 5,000 balls have gone for a rinse. That’s a serious number, by the way. Five thousand. That’s the most water balls of any course and almost 1,000 more than second-place TPC Sawgrass. This is more pronounced now since TPC Southwind began hosting a limited field WGC event two years ago. Most of the wetness will be absorbed by holes 12 and 18. No. 12 has seen more than 900 balls get wetter than Ethan Hawke in “Training Day.” John Daly holds the record for most dips in the lakes with 48.

In the past 12 years at TPC Southwind, only three winners has finished worse than 16th for the week in SG: OTT. And, for approaches, no winner has finished outside the top 20 in the year in which they hoisted the trophy.

Average Driving Accuracy (56%) and Greens in Regulation (60%) are almost 10 percentage points lower at TPC Southwind than at the average PGA TOUR tournament. With those thin fairways (25 yards wide), you want to be long and straight off the tee. Over the past 24 rounds, Scottie Scheffler, Jhonny Vegas, Keegan Bradley, Ludvig Aberg, Davis Thompson, Sam Burns, and Mav McNealy are the only players who rank inside the top 25 of both distance and accuracy in this field.

Rory McIlroy, Collin Morikawa, Ludvig Aberg, Patrick Cantlay and Scottie Scheffler have the most Strokes Gained: Total on par 70 courses over their past 24 rounds.

PET PEEVE BRACKET

Part 1 with Sia and Overzet is already out and it was one of my fav shows of the year. THEN, I recorded part two with Adam Pranica and Cust and it was also awesome. The best mini series I’ve done in some time. Part 2 drops tomorrow but since you’re all such lovely people, I’ve provided an early link for you.

Remember to vote on a final 4 too.