Wyndham Bets
We gonna win? Unlikely. But……… maybe????
WATCH: WYNDHAM FINAL BETS
Mr. WOOOOOO KIM — Tom Kim is all the rage at the moment, justifiably, but Sedgefield is Si WOOOOOOO’s track. Site of his first career win, Kim’s bonafides at the course are legit — four Top 5s in his last five starts at the Wyndham — and the form is starting to look a lot better. After three consecutive missed cuts, Mr. WOOOOOOOOO has reeled off back-to-back Top 15 finishes and gets to return his happy place.
Adam Svensson — Svensson had rattled off positive putting performances in eight consecutive events before it stopped rolling so well at the Rocket Mortgage. It happens. I was far more encouraged to see his ball striking return. The Canadian was fourth in the field in approach for the week and gained against the field with his driver, and most certainly, Sedgefield is a much better layout for his skills.
Russell Henley — Henley gained in each T2G metric last week in Detroit en route to a T10, and he’s now back on his preferred putting surface (+0.33 SG:PUTT/round on Bermuda). Sedgefield is a layout that can let him get away with his distance deficiencies.
NFL NOTES
Better than Avis: It’s Hurts
Top scoring Year 3 QBs (PPG) since 2015. Notice a trend as far as skill set?
All are legit mobile threats, and three of the four saw their Fantasy scoring improve year-over-year. With mobility like this, you don’t need stability as a passer, you just need upside (the rushing creates stability). Hurts began to embrace that last season:
Weeks 1-5: 6.7 air yards per throw
Weeks 6-18: 9.4 air yards per throw (a 40.3% increase)
You can see my projections are quite bullish on Mr. Hurts this season…
Of course, you can fuck around with your own projections FOR FREE at RunTheSims.com. The season fantasy tools just require an email, no cost. For DFS and Betting, the tools actually cost money. Shocker. But if you used them during USFL season, you most certainly have enough to afford the NFL package. The projections were essentially a printing press. Until August 15th, the price is $249 for the NFL season (it goes up to $299 afterwards), but since you’re all increible people, if you use code “MAYO” you’ll get $25 off that price. RTS actually made me profitable in DK NFL last season, which, if you know me, is about the greatest achievement in the history of DFS.
TOOLS: 10% OFF RUN THE SIMS DFS & BETTING TOOLS
PME NFL CONTENT
YES, me, Custy and Geoff returned to kick off our 2022 NFL coverage. If you missed it, what’s your fucking deal, PAL???? But you can rectify that here..
WATCH: BEST QB RANKS PART 1 + CUST CORNER
You can even get self care tips from CUST
2022 PME Fantasy Draft Guide… So Far
LIST: 2022 RB Rankings
SECRET SHOW: QB RANKS PART 2!!!
SECRET SHOW: NFL FUTURES
Injury Risk Factor Rankings
RB RANK Tiers Part 3
RB RANK Tiers Part 2
RB RANK Tiers Part 1
WR RANKS MIDDLE TIERS
WR RANKS TOP TIERS
Confusing Offesnes
Stacks & W17 Correlations
2022 Best Ball Strategy
Rookies: The Upside Cases
Treylon Burks
The potential top target in TEN could have sneaky value … 16 times last season a Titan see 8+ targets in a game. Then there’s the TD equity: 18 TD catches in his final two seasons at Arkansas, scoring once every 6.5 catches. There was a lot of negatively early in camp about his conditioning, but those issues have seemingly passed. Yes, Robert Woods and Austin Hooper could fill both these roles instead of Burks, however at his price point, it’s worth a gamble that he is the one who fills both.
Breece Hall
Expensive for a rookie, yes. Worth noting, NYJ ranked 4th in percentage of yards gained in close games (when the score is within 10 points) on the ground. In over 280 touches in each of his final 2 seasons at Iowa State, racked up 23 TDs in each of those seasons. There’s a chance he simply bests Michael Carter at the goal line and in the passing game and becomes one of the true workhorses in Fantasy. If he’s not, the floor still seems quality for the cost.
Drake London
Over the past 5 seasons, 9x has a rookie WR earned 100+ targets. All 9 of them cleared 850 receiving yards and 8 of them scored at least 5 times (the exception: Jerry Jeudy). 9+ catches in 7 of his 8 games last season, 30+ yard catch in 6 of 8 games
Garrett Wilson:
NYJ trailed for 69% (NICE, obv) of offensive snaps last season (2nd highest). Saved his best for the big stage. His final 3 collegiate games came against a team ranked inside the top 20 … he caught 27 passes for 371 yards and 6 TDs
Jameson Williams:
The Lions scored 28 points per game over the final four games of last season as Amon-Ra St. Brown broke out. 9.5 yards per catch after the reception last season (5th among WR in all of DI). You’re just gonna half to wait for hiim to return.
Chris Olave:
Jameis Winston averages 267 passing yards in his 77 career starts. Olave: 14.1 aDOT, highest among the top receivers in the 2022 NFL Draft
Jahan Dotson:
Carson Wentz was on target with a career-best 70% of his passes thrown 20+ yards last season.Dotson dropped just 2 of 142 targets last season at Penn State (1.4%).
Skyy Moore
KC ranks 2nd in number of red zone passes thrown during the Mahomes era. 5 games with 10+ catches last season and showed big play potential (he had a 50+ yard catch in 3 of those 5 games). Hopefully the injury in Monday’s practice is nbd.
Christian Watson
20.4 yards per catch in his career at North Dakota. GB ranks 3rd in percentage of passes thrown 20+ yards over the past 2 seasons (the Rodgers MVP run)
Over 18 yards per catch in each season at North Dakota State
6 games with multiple carries last season (versatility that could prove valuable in an offense that lost over 31% of their target share via Davante Adams)
George Pickens:
PIT led the NFL in red zone pass rate last season (73%, league average: 55.8%). The healthy version of him showed out in the 2020 Peach Bowl vs CIN (7 catches for 135 yards and a TD.
Ken Walker
Since 2018, the Seahawks rank 4th in percentage of yards gained on the ground in one score games (and that was with a QB they trusted!). Spike in volume in his only season at Michigan State (263 carries) didn’t hurt his efficiency at all (6.2 yards per carry). But … just 19 catches on his 3-year collegiate resume
James Cook
BUF trailed for a league-low 26% of snaps last season and it wasn’t close (GB was 2nd: 33.5%). Developed as a route runner in his final 2 collegiate seasons
First 2 seasons: -2.08 air yards per target
Final 2 seasons: 2.64 air yards per target
TIDBITS
WEATHER
For the first time in ages, doesn’t look like there’s any wave adavntage. Good times!
WIND TOWER: Greensboro
DraftKings Ownership (guesss tbh)
WATCH: DK Ownership, Pivots & Picks
Sungjae
Henely
Si WOOOOOO
Poston
Lowry
Billy Ho
Conners
Stallings
Svensson
— PM