SUPER BOWL PROPS!!!!!
WATCH: Super Bowl Best Bets
If there was ever a week for RUN THE SIMS to pay for itself, it’s Super Bowl time, with the Showdown Optimizer and Player Prop Simulator. And here’s the things, IT’S FREE TO USE THIS WEEK!!!!!!!!!!
TOOLS: RUN THE SIMS OPTO/PROJECTIONS/PROPS
Here’s my single fav from for the game: Burrow o2.5 rushing attempts. And it’s nice to see the simulations agree with me.
If you don’t believe me, just ask our friend who we’ve been taking cash off of all year using the Props tool
It’s a shame he finally picked up on this.
RTS also found this gem, which looks like a STRONG UNDER
Me, Cust and Geoff went over a lot of the props like my Eli Apple & Leonard Floyd MVP Bets (aka wastes of money), but the real winner from this show is the Cust story. It’s outrageous.
WATCH: Super Bowl 56 Picks, Bets, Props
FREE MONEY
Now, I also have some free money for ya. And you can get it in two different ways.
That’s easy enough. Deposit $100. Get another $100.
Now, if you don’t feel like depositing $100, there is a NEW WAY to get that free $100.
PLAY AT PRIZE PICKS USING CODE “MMN” or “MMNFL”
Let your pick to cover dictate your first half pick
Over the past decade, teams that have covered their playoff game are 84-25 at covering +0.5 points in the first half
In game bet?
The last team to cover a Super Bowl and lost the first quarter … 2009 Saints.
First quarter points: Under 9.5 points (line shop this: DK has 7.5, some places have up to 10 – juiced)
Over the past 20 Super Bowls, 6.6 first quarter PPG
Both teams averaged under 4 points per first quarter this regular season
Both teams were top 12 in limiting yards per first quarter play this regular season
Both teams saw their air yards per pass check in at least 7.5% lower in the first quarter than the rest of the game this regular season (fewer big plays, longer possessions, fewer scoring chances, etc)
More fading points
In the past 14 Super Bowls, just once has an offensive TD been scored in the first 10 minutes (2012 Ravens)
Don’t love the juice, but …
CIN is bottom-10 in blitz rate, Stafford has thrown a pick in 6 straight games against such teams (and in 8 of 9 games this season
- In those 9 games: 65.1% complete (other games: 70.5%)
o That would point UNDER in completions (24.5), especially if you think the Rams are playing with a lead
§ When the game is within a FG this season, LAR passes at the 4th highest rate
§ When leading by 4+ points … they rank 17th in pass rate
Bombs away? Maybe not
Over the past 11 Super Bowls (so 22 teams), just 7x has a team had a completion gain over 38.5 yards
Cross Sport Exotic
Karl-Anthony Towns is averaging 38.5 points + rebounds + assists this season (42.7 over the past 10 days)
He plays a selling Pacers team (likely to deal their best player before Thursday’s deadline)
His floor since returning from protocols: 28 (32+ in each of the other 15 games)
He has 4 or fewer fouls in 36 of 46 games … so foul trouble shouldn’t play too much a factor (especially if we assume the Pacers deal Sabonis sooner than later)
The Bengals and Rams have allowed a total of 10 TDs of 35+ yards (half have been under 45 yards)
I think this is a decent prop without the spread, you’re giving me +8.5 and I have it locked and loaded
Hold your nose
Over the past 15 Super Bowls, 23 times has a QB thrown 30+ passes (something both Stafford and Burrow are doing 70%+ of the time this season)
Only 5 of them ran for over 6 yards (Cam and Kaepernick were obvious names to get to that number)
First play, if you want to chase + money
Since 2010, first quarter pass rates …
Regular season: 56.7%
Playoffs: 58.5% (dips to 58.3% if you exclude Super Bowls)
Super Bowls: 60.8%
Player Parlay
Tyler Boyd has an end zone target in 4 of Cincy’s past 5 games
CIN has won the past 5 games in which Boyd gets an end zone target
Short pass TD … if you’re betting on Boyd, you’re likely thinking a short score
It hasn’t been the big name guys scoring those TDs vs LAR this season. Here are the players with a TD catch of under 15 yards vs LAR:
Zach Pascal, AJ Dillon, Geoff Swaim, Jauan Jennings, Maxx Williams, Randall Cobb, KJ Osborn, Gio Bernard, Brevin Jordan and George Kittle
The longer TDs are where the big names got involved: Deebo in two of the matchups, DK Metcalf, Brandin Cooks, Mike Evans, etc
DraftKings Picks
WATCH: Super Bowl DraftKings Picks 56 DraftKings + Showdown Strategy
I assembled two of the very best in the biz, Justin Freeman and Cody Main, to go over how to attack the Super Bowl DK slate. Here’s what we cover…
1:59 DraftKings Showdown Strategy
10:17 Common Lineup Builds
15:23 Value Traps
17:27 Injuries
19:39 Game Script
25:44 Popular Plays/Picks
30:39 DST Correlation
32:41 Captain Spot Ownership Projections
37:51 Best Leverage Plays
42:51 2nd Half/4th Quarter Showdown
Additionally, since RUN THE SIMS is FREE for SUPER BOWL 56, you can use the optimizer and build as many lineups as you like for ANY showdown slate as quickly as you like.
Waste Management Bets
PAY ATTENTION!!!!!
Webb Simpson WD Wednesday night.
Harris English WD on Wednesday afternoon.
Let’s lose some money!!!!! I broke it all down here..
WATCH: Final Bets, DraftKings Ownership, Props, One and Done
UPDATE: I saw these two first round leader odds on Bet365 so I decided to hit them since it’s a huge misprice. Hopefully they don’t get voided.
Hideki — Already a two-time winner in Phoenix, Matsuyama’s tee-to-green game is nearing peak levels once again. Likely always, it’s going to come down to his flat stick. Can he not lose so many strokes he can still claim victory? Normally, that bet would be, no. Over the last year, it’s still usually no, but he’s T2G is so strong, if you luck into a solid outing week, he’s probably going to win.
Bubba — TPC Scottsdale is Bubba’s best track where he’s never collected a win. He’s finished inside the Top 10 two of the past three years, and five times in the last decade. It’s always tough to gauge his form, but a solo second in Saudi last week shows he’s still lurking on leaderboards.
Ancer — 2022 hasn’t started quite like Ancer would have wanted, but there’s signs of life now. After a disaster at the year opener Tournament of Champions, he missed the cut at Sony and followed it up with a T40 at AMEX. The thing is, the ball striking has been fine, his flat stick has sunk him. Ancer isn’t the world’s greatest putter but this has been brutal, even for him. And really, m he seemed to turn his flat stick fortunes around last week in Saudi, churning out a T8 in a much stronger field than at Pebble Beach, it’s just, no one noticed.
More on Ancer below btw.
FREE MONEY
Now, I also have some free money for ya. And you can get it in two different ways.
That’s easy enough. Deposit $100. Get another $100.
Now, if you don’t feel like depositing $100, there is a NEW WAY to get that free $100.
Use code “MMNNFL”, enter $5 or more on the Super Bowl and PrizePicks will hook you up with $100 if Burrow throws for more than one yard. So hell, deposit $5, use code “MMNNFL”, make that entry and collect your $100. Easy game.
Now if you wanted to do some golf this week on Prize Picks, it’s a good time to get in as they’ve gotten rid of the one over/one under rule. You don’t need both in an entry anymore. That said, I still did one over and one under for opening round scores this week.
PLAY AT PRIZE PICKS USING CODE “MMN” or “MMNFL”
2022 WMPO CONTENT HUB
Final Picks/DK Ownership
Bets + Picks w/ Fienberg
DK Picks w/ Dom
Tournament Write Up
Research Show
DK Cheatsheet
WMPO GALAXY BRAIN: Asking The Right Questions To Get The Right _______
I mentioned it in my DK write-up: everyone makes the short putts at this tournament. Understanding that, the value I do put into putting is going to come from those who thrive on fast greens in that 15-25 foot range. Over their past 24 rounds on fast/lightening greens, here are the 20 golfers in the field this week that are top-50 in SG:P in both the 15-20 foot range and 20-25:
TOOLS: 20% Fantasy National Tools & Stats
I discussed being out on Cantlay during the DK Preview show with Dom Cintorino this week, but there’s no denying his dominance in this area, so of course he has tournament winning upside.
In each of the past 5 Waste Management’s, the average top-10 finisher has gained over 16 feet on the field in terms of proximity from 125-150. Using Fantasy National, I decided to look at the aforementioned 20 players and do a rolling report for that range. In the interest of trimming my card down, I only kept players that are top-50 in the category over their past 24 rounds AND have improved over their past 8 rounds: trying to combine a slightly longer look with more recent form …
Combine those 4 with Spieth and your favorite of my two lock bets (Brooks and Bubba) and you’ve got yourself a nice little GPP lineup that has tremendous upside. It seems more likely than not that the winner is going to gain opportunities and capitalize. In a big way. Among our Final Four, here are the ranks in the past 24 rounds in opportunities gained:
Ancer – 33rd
Finau – 36th
Si WOO – 93rd
Duncan – 100th
And what if we look at Eagles gained over that same stretch:
Ancer – 21st
Duncan – 116th
Finau – 117th
Si WOO – 124th
Notice the same name atop both lists? Honest Abe is currently +5500 at DraftKings Sportsbook (And 66/1 at certain other locations with the numbers 3,6, and 5 in the name). It’s been two months since the Mexican Allen Iverson finished inside the top-35… on the pG ATOUR but … he was T8 in Saudi last week.
The last time he had 3 weeks off between PGA events during a season? Between The Open Championship and St. Jude’s last season. He finished 59th at The Open Championship, got his shit together, and won a 3-man playoff at St. Jude’s.
The results haven’t been there in 2022 for Ancer yet, but he has gained over 1.5 strokes off the tee in consecutive events (he was a net -12 strokes off the tee in his three measured events prior) and we saw some spotty results last winter as well (he missed the cut at Sony and Genesis before going on a run where he was top-30 in 9 straight). He’s +180 at DK to finish top-20, so maybe divide up your bet as a defacto hedge: he checks more boxes in this loaded field that you might assume.
WMPO DraftKings Ownership
Here’s where I’m going this week when I’m tracking the ownership on DraftKings. THIS Threw a wrench into things tho.
WATCH: WMPO DK Ownership Breakdown
No Webb (English was going to be relatively unowned, so don’t worry about him), means a direct spike in ownership in ownership for everyone in his price range, but mainly the already popular plays: Seamus Power, Corey Conners and Adam Scott. Louis Oosthuizen should see an increase too, but it’s much easier for people to go down in price instead of up if they aren’t going to rebuild. Finau should see a small bump, however there seemed to be little interest in him this week. Ditto for Matt Fitzpatrick. I like Fitz still as a pivot play in this range, and am guessing he now comes in 7-9% in large GPPs.
Rahm
Scheffler
Thomas
Henley
Hideki
List
Xander
Mito
Wise
CUSTYS
Since you decided to read this far down the newsletter, you’re in luck! We’re doing a Custys Panel show that is dropping next week. But here’s the thing, it’s actually already done. And now you can watch it if you like
WATCH: 2022 CUSTYS PANEL
And don’t forget to submit your vote in the best awards show of the year.
VOTE IN THE 2022 CUSTY AWARDS
Here’s a sneak peek.
— PM