WGC Bets, DK Ownership, NFL + Tools

+ Next Week's Cust Corner

WGC-St. Jude BETS

WAITTTTTTTTT!!!!!!!! Before you dig in, get in the DK listener’s league. Still need 500 more people. If we come up short, that’s likely it for the year. Sorry the only RAKE FREE tourney on DK isn’t a good enough sell.

After a week off on the PGA Tour and the Olympic Golf event, the Tour finds itself in Memphis this week for the WGC St. Jude, held at TPC Southwind. This is the third time this course has been a WGC, with its prior place in the schedule being the week before the US Open. Daniel Berger won twice at this course in the pre-WGC days, but it is worth noting that those fields were much worse. Much of the tournament history is from the WGC Bridgestone event, which the St. Jude took over after 2018, so just be careful with the distinctions between course history and tournament history this week.

TPC Southwind is a ballstrikers paradise, but unlike other courses, it doesn’t require running super hot on the Greens to win here. Both JT, last year’s winner, and Brooks, who came T2 and could have maybe won before a waterball on 18, lost strokes putting for the week in their high finishes. TPC Southwind is also the course on the Tour with the most waterballs, with more than 5000 going in the drink since they changed the course in 2004, more than 1500 more than Sawgrass, which is second on the list. Thin fairways and a sneaky long Par 70 mean that driving accuracy matters more this week than most.

Also, for those interested in WGC trends: since 2015, only one winner of a stroke play WGC has been outside the Top 20 in the world, and that was Phil’s 2018 win in Mexico (where he beat Justin Thomas in a playoff). This got us on Morikawa at Concession earlier this year, for what it’s worth.

Of course, among my bets I only have one played ranked inside the Top 20, because I’m bad at this. Live and not learn, I suppose.

I went over most of these on the show, then talked myself into Billy Ho on Bermuda at a water log course where he’s been good in the past. I initially just went T10/T20, but I have too much fish DNA and felt I had to bet him outright too, because I wouldn’t want to miss it.

NOTE: Things like that are how you blow your bankroll at a rapid pace.

But really, you know what time it is?

Weather

There’s really not much in the forecast as of now - there’s some cloud expected on Friday, but no rain in the forecast, low winds, no split advantage. Check back here before lock if you’re interested in seeing if that has changed.

NFL

I have a first look at the DraftKings pricing with Chris Meaney out now, and over on the Fantasy Football Picks And Bet feed, I went over some of the news (and some soft yardage props) with Jeff Ratcliffe. 

Also, we still need to hammer the Apple reviews to launch into the algo properly, so, as is tradition, I’m giving away STRAIGHT CASH to you good people. The pot is at $500 right now, I’ll up it to $1000 or $1500 if the reviews really start to come in, so……….

CLICK HERE to get to the show on Apple Podcasts

1. SUBSCRIBE
2. RATE 5 STAR
3. Leave a short review
4. Put your Twitter Handle or Email in the review.

DONE. Takes like 26 seconds. Maybe less.

Also, Prize Picks is matching all deposits up to $100 with code “MMN” so you’ll get up to $100 in BONUS MONEY so if you strike out this time, you’ll have a FREE reload ready to go.

Me and Jeff Ratcliffe talked about some of the soft totals you can exploit over there earlier this week because of injuries, and this is what we came up.

The tiered QB Rankings show with Chris Meaney drops tomorrow am as well. But you can watch it NOWWWWWWWW if you give a fuck. I’m guessing you’re here for the other secret show however. I actually thought this was one of the stronger NFL shows far this year. Maybe it’s just because I like chatting with Meaney.

Oh, RuntheSims.com is a go. Use this link to get a discount. Even if you just get the free account, there’s still plenty tools to use.

Since I’m guessing you want the Opto & Custom Game Sims, once again, this link has a discount.

Euro Tour Picks And Bets

Tom and Sky have bets for the 2021 Hero Open over in Scotland, and they actually hit winners, so go tail their bets to pay for my crappy ones.

UFC 265

The Dog or Pass picks show is ALREADY OUT!!!! Exciting stuff. Paul and Cody have some good edges on a few coin flip spots for the PPV.

DraftKings Ownership

With another no cut event, the same rules as last week apply. With all of your players guaranteed 72 holes, that could lead you to more of a stars and scrubs approach, but the 6k range is full of odds and ends that are unreliable, so a balanced build could be the route.

In terms of avoiding getting duped, one of the strategies is leaving money on the table. I will quote the Rick Gehman (RICK!!!!) stat I dropped last week - ~83% of lineups spend at least 49.8K and ~94.5% of lineups spend at least 49.5K, so if you’re trying to be unique, leaving some money on the table is one way to avoid getting duped, even if you do want to play some chalkier plays.

Berger, unsurprisingly, will be chalk this week, given his two wins in Memphis, as will Sergio at his price in the low 7k range. Sergio led the field in Tee-To-Green in Minnesota two weeks ago and didn’t win because he bled strokes putting and he’s now a name people recognize and a stat favourite - he’s going to be popular.

Then there are two other factors at play here.

One, based on projections, it appears a lot of DK players are simply avoiding everyone who played in Tokyo last week. I have Morikawa the highest owned of the Olympic group, and he’s currently 10th overall at around 17%. This could be an amazing leverage opportunity if it turns out there’s no fatigue or jet leg, which there probably isn’t. It’s not like these guys aren’t constantly globetrotting.

Two, this…

Brooks persists as the betting favorite, even after this news, so the books, like myself, aren’t worried about this. I was hoping this would quell his ownership, but it appears very few are actually concerned about this. Maybe it will lead to a few points shaved off his ownership.

(bad) DraftKings Ownership Guesses

Daniel Berger 29%
Harris English 24%
Brooks Koepka 21%
Jordan Spieth (ANDERCUSRED) 19%
Scottie Scheffler 19%
Patrick Cantlay 18%
Louis Oosthuizen 18%

Of the $9K and up crowd, it appears that Hideki will be the lowest owned as an FYI. For pivots to get away from a lot of my massive chalk I’m using Will Z and Billy Ho in my core with sprinkles of Wolff, Phil and Palmer mixed in.

Another way to take advantage of the travel narratives, if you believe in them, is to pound the Overs or Unders on Prize Picks. Sign up here, use code MMN on the deposit and get in on what amounts to a parlay.

They’ll double your deposit (up to $100) just for getting on the site, so you essentially have a free bet on this one.

I mean, it seems too easy for as 3x payout, right? I’m guessing Louis WDs after round 3 because his mattress was too firm to fuck it up.

I’ll even double down, get wild and go for a 10x payday.

The proper move would be to do the FLEX PLAY, but I’m greedy.

If you have any specific leans, here’s the board. (Sign up link again with deposit match. I really think you’d enjoy this different type of sweat if you try it out. It’s pretty fun)

CUST CORNER

The audio won’t be up until next week on the pod feed, but since you were good enough to sub to the newsletter

Fucking SUB if you haven’t yet, leaches. ⬆️⬆️⬆️

The video version is RIGHT HERE for you to enjoy, tho. With NFL rapidly approach Me, Cust and Geoff are about ready to start up the weekly football shows, starting with the win totals. We’re excited.

Here’s the CC rundown.

GOOD LUCK this week. Also, if it wasn’t clear, it means a lot to the network if you sign up for Prize Picks. We’re planning two YUGE NFL Props contests over there, so you’ll eventually want cash on the site. May as well do it NOWWWWWW and get that bonus

— PM