Wells Fargo + Myrtle Beach Classic Preview
I’m looking for a good giveaway for PGA Championship: Underdog Bucks, Cash Giveaway, some sort of experience. Reply to this email and send me yout thoughts.
Get the 3 for 1 at Fantasy National + 20% OFF. Sign up on Wednesday with a weekly membership with /MAYO and you’ll get both events this week + The PGA Championship. Full access to the whole suite of tools and the best leaderboard app around. No brainer, really.
Help support the show by using Code “MAYO” at Underdog. The PME Classic Draft starts when the tee times come out Tuesday afternoon. And I’ll try to stay HOT with the newsletter Pick’em Entry in Wednesday’s post. Or just tail the Underdog KING Kenny Kim. Dude has been on fire.
Use code “MAYO” at underdog for a deposit match up to $100
Wells Fargo Championship
Mayo and Geoff Fienberg preview the course and run through the odds while making their 2024 Wells Fargo Championship and Myrtle Beach Classic Picks and bets with a recap of the Byron Nelson and LIV. Plus, we talked about the best Majors of the past 10 years.
WATCH: Wells Fargo Championship Picks, Bets | 2024 Myrtle Beach Classic Picks | CJ Cup Recap
Field
70 Players | NO CUT
First Tee Time: Thursday, May 9
Defending Champion: Wyndham Clark
Will Zalatoris (back), Viktor Hovland (personal), and Sungjae Im (illness) listed in field for Wells Fargo Championship.
Scottie Scheffler (Dad Life) not in field for next week's Wells Fargo Championship.
Key Stats
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Proximity Gained 200+ Yards
Par 4s Gained: 450-500 Yards
JOIN: 20% OFF Tools and Stats at FantasyNational.com
Course
Course: Quail Hollow
Yardage: 7,559
Par: 71
Greens: Poa Trivialis overseed .125” (all base turf is bermudagrass)
Average Green Size: 6,578 sq. ft.
Number of Sand Bunkers: 61
Number of Holes Water is in Play: 7
Par 3's (4): Average distance - 207 yards
-Hole 17 can be a deal breaker: 2nd toughest on the course and the owner of an 8% double+ rate (easily the highest)
-Wyndham Clark won last season and played #17 at -1 (played the Par 3's at -2 over the weekend)
Par 4's (11): Average distance - 456 yards
-Three of the four toughest holes on property are Par 4's on the back-9, all with an over-par rate more than triple the birdie rate.
-Clark played his middle two rounds last year with a single bogey on the Par 4's (four birdies)
Par 5's (3): Average distance - 572 yards
-All three of them own an eagle rate of at least 1% with #7 the spot for dramatic swings (3.6% eagle rate is the highest on the course, but the 3.1% double+ ranked fourth highest)
-Clark birdied the two 5's on the back-9 on Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday.
DraftKings Streak
This course is designed to create chaos on Sunday with three of the four toughest holes being 16-18, thus making a front to back path the way to go during the first two rounds. Holes 8 and 10 are among the five easiest on the course, giving every player the opportunity to see the peak of his round come over this stretch if playing this course in order.
Past Winners
2023: Wyndham Clark (-19)
2022: Max Homa (-8) (TPC Potomac)
2021: Rory McIlroy (-10)
2019: Max Homa (-15)
2018: Jason Day (-12)
2017: Brian Harman (-10) (Eagle Point Golf Club)
2016: James Hahn (-9)
2015: Rory McIlory (-21)
2023: Wyndham Clark (-19, four clear of Xander Schauffele)
-His 63 on Saturday was the round of the tournament, he was the only golfer to card 68 or better in all four rounds
-5 of the top 7 putters for the week cashed a top 8 paycheck (all 7 of them finished top 25)
2022: Different Course
2021: Rory McIlroy (-10, one clear of Abe Ancer)
Had no form entering play (consecutive missed cuts)
No stand out round, but 66-68 in three of four days (was eight back after shooting a 72 on Thursday)
Each of the Top 8 finishers picked up at least 1.7 strokes with their putter (five of them gained at least 3.5 strokes)
2019: Max Homa (-15, three clear of Joel Dahmen)
Had no form entering play (three straight finishes outside the Top 40)
His Friday 63 was not only the round of the day, it ended up being the difference on the final leaderboard (Dahmen shot a 66)
Jason Day was the only Top 30 finisher to lose strokes on approach
Homa won on the back of +9.9 strokes putting (best in the field)
2018: Jason Day (-12, two clear of Nick Watney and Aaron Wise)
Was Top 20 in seven of eight events prior
Day was the only golfer to card four rounds in the 60s
Four of the top six in driving distance cashed Top 10 paychecks (six of the Top 12 finishers lost fairways to the field)
2017: Different Course
2016: James Hahn (-9, playoff win over Roberto Castro)
Had no form entering play (hadn’t made a cut in over three months)
His 68 on moving day was the best on the course and proved critical (three strokes better than Castro)
Hahn and Castro were two of the Top 6 players in the field in Proximity in the 75-100 yard bucket
2015: Rory McIlory (-21, seven clear of Patrick Rodgers and Webb Simpson)
Elite lead in form (Top-11 in each of his four events prior)
McIlroy’s 61 on Saturday was 7+ strokes better than any of the next five on the final leaderboard
Six of the Top 10 in SG: OTT cashed Top 10 pay checks
NOTES
Quail Hollow has been the host of the Wells Fargo Championship since 2003 outside of seasons where the venue has attracted even larger events (2017 PGA Championship; 2022 Presidents Cup).
A championship-level course located in Charlotte, North Carolina, Quail Hollow is widely regarded as one of the premier golf destinations in the Southeastern United States. The course was originally designed by renowned golf course architect George Cobb in 1961 but has undergone several redesigns since then, including a major renovation by Tom Fazio in 1997 and again prior to the 2017 PGA Championship.
The course is known for its challenging layout, featuring tree-lined fairways, numerous water hazards and strategically placed bunkers that require precision shot-making from players. The signature hole at Quail Hollow is the Par 3 17th, which requires a tee shot over a large pond to a green protected by bunkers on either side.
Strokes Gained will always show approach as the biggest driver of success of the T2G metrics, the gap between approach and off the tee is smaller than at any other course on TOUR. Of the Top 10 finishers per year, they average +0.72 SG: OTT and +0.87 SG: APP per round. There are courses where approach is over three times as important as driving, for reference.
Golfers need to be precise off the tee in order to avoid the thick rough and strategically placed bunkers that line Quail Hollow’s narrow fairways. Distance has proven to be more important than accuracy, but some combination of the two trumps all. You’ll see a generic bomber pop up each year, or even win from nowhere in the case of Derek Ernst. That alone should prove the value of driving distance.
It’s not the only path, however. You’ll see a scattershot of shorter-to-average-length players that still gain a bounty of strokes off the tee: Francesco Molinari, Abraham Ancer, Joel Dahmen all spring to mind.
The common trait among the shorter smackers who’ve experienced the most success is an ability to control long irons. Over 50% of approaches this week will come from beyond 175 yards (31% from 200+).
There’s also a weird crossover between Quail Hollow with Rivera and Torrey Pines despite being on opposite coasts. Each features fast, unique green complexes, and each requires a ton of distance to cut down the course. From the past decade, Max Homa, James Hahn and JB Holmes all have wins at Quail and RIV; Jason Day and Homa have both won at Torrey.
The final three holes at Quail Hollow are dubbed “The Green Mile” and it’s the most difficult finishing stretch in the regular PGA TOUR course rotation. Since 2003 there have been over 1700 water balls on these three holes. Collectively, they’ve played +0.91 on average over that time span. Overall, there have been 1800+ water balls here since 2003.
BETS
Hideki 30/1
Scam Young 35/1
Will Z 55/1
PGA CHAMPIONSHIP
PME Coverage for the year’s second major kicks off Saturday (maybe Friday) with the player-by-player breakdown. Byron is stepping up for that show for the PGA Championship.
Research on Sunday.
Bets and Picks with Geoff and Cust Monday Morning.
Bets Bets with Rasa and Cam Tuesday morning.
DraftKings Picks/Final Bets with Tambo on Wednesday.
Cut Sweats LIVE Friday Afternoon.
There’s nothing better than Major season. If you have an extra few second please help us out and Subscribe, Rate and Review the audio Podcast. That will likely get you into the giveaway draws as well.
Apple: http://bit.ly/PMEiTunes
Spotify: https://goo.gl/VboemH
Myrtle Beach Classic
Course: Dunes Golf & Beach Club
Yardage: 7,347
Par: 71
Field: 132
Greens: Champion ultradwarf bermuda .100”
Average Green Size: 6,000 sq. ft.
Number of Sand Bunkers: 72
Number of Holes Water is in Play: 6
Field stronger than the typical alternate event being played in South Carolina as opposed to the Caribbean. It origionally included Bez, Horschel and Pendirth but they all got into the Wells Fargo Championship through AON 10 + Next 5.
JOIN: 20% OFF Tools and Stats at FantasyNational.com
Since its opening in 1948 when the Robert Trent Jones Snr layout was only the second course on the Strand, the Dunes Golf & Beach Club has been at or near the top of every Myrtle Beach golf course list. The Dunes has hosted the U.S. Women’s Open, the finals of the PGA Tour’s Q-School and six Senior PGA Tour Championships.
Although located barely more than a block from the beach and with most holes subject to strong ocean breezes, the style of the course is not seaside or links. It has woodland, parkland and marshland elements, with the 9th being the only hole where a player catches a glimpse of the Atlantic.
WIND TOWER: North Myrtle Beach (Tide)
WIND!
The mostly elevated green complexes are extremely challenging as a result of large and deep Augusta white sand bunkers. Other RTJ trademarks are the runway tee boxes and a generous dose of strategic fairway bunkering, requiring well placed tee shots.
Holes 11 through 13 are called “Alligator Alley”. No. 11 features a dramatic approach to a green that is protected by two bunkers and bordered by Singleton Swash on the right. The 12th par 3 that features a do-or-die carry over the swash, while the par 5 13th known as “Waterloo,” is Myrtle Beach’s most famous challenge. It’s a 90-degree dogleg right.
Rees Jones redesign in 2003, 2013, and 2018.
In 2013, the Club successfully converted all greens from A-1 Bentgrass to Ultradwarf Champion Bermuda surfaces. championship tees. The Championship Course now measures 7,450 yards, which positively positioned the Dunes Golf and Beach Club to co-host the 2014 PGA Professional National Championship.
In the summer of 2018 Jones undertook a complete restoration of all of the bunkers on the golf course to reclaim and enhance the Robert Trent Jones design style and strategy. All of the bunkers were rebuilt with new drainage, liners and sand.
They are large, undulating and have multiple pinnable areas that can dramatically affect the strategy and difficulty of a hole. Pay attention to where the flag is on the approach because there are consequences to missing in the wrong spot.
Avg. landing areas are 20-25 yards wide.
Hole #8 will play as a par 4 (usually par 5).
— PM