Wells Fargo Final Bets, DraftKings, Weather
+ UFC & PROPS!!!!
WELLS FARGO
Final Bets, Weather + DraftKings Picks
Fantasy Picks, Bets, One & Done
Research, Picks, Course, Custom Model
LISTENERS LEAGUE DIRECT LINK (FILL IT UP!!!!)
WELLS FARGO BETS
WATCH: WELLS FARGO FINAL PICKS & ONE AND DONE
Viktor Hovland — Around the green play rarely players a large factor in determining the winner at Quail Hollow. Yes, Hovland can certainly be the outlier who can chip himself out of a win, but a break even week may be enough. Between his current ball striking form, and success at the main crossover course, and a T3 in his lone Quail Hollow appearance, it’s setting up quite nicely for him.
Gary Woodland — It’s pretty hard gaining 10 strokes T2G in one of the weakest field of the season and only managing to finished in a tie for 39th. This is what happens when you’re Gary Woodland and you lose over seven strokes with your putter. Somehow, he’s lost seven or more on the greens in two of his past four starts. So the hope is, he’s got the bad ones out of the way. Because the driving and irons, on par with the best the in the world over the past four months. There is some good news, Woodland’s been on the positive side of putting in two of his past 3 visits to Quail Hollow.
Sam Stevens — Stevens’ putting can always sink him, This we’ve seen. However he proved himself on the greens at Torrey Pines earlier this year, gaining +5.3 SG:PUTT in three rounds on the south course en route to a T13 finish. In fact, there’s been a dramatic spilt in his performance on long and short courses in 2023. On course under 7,400 yards, Stevens missed four of six cuts with T34 as his top result (air Pebble Beach). In four starts on courses over 7,400 yards: T13/T15/T3/T2.
Jorge Campillo — I saw smart people bet him. So I did too.
JT & Homa — I got sucked into that Homa number once it crossed 30. I couldn’t help myself. And Thomas, that dude has to make a putt at some point, right???
UFC 288
There’s a UFC PPV this week soo Paul and Cody dropped the show EARLY!!!!!!! Well, early enough to include in the newsletter for once.
WATCH: UFC 288 Picks, Bets, Props
SUB TO THE DOP PODCAST
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KENTUCKY DERBY
The full preview show will be out in glorious Youtube and Podcast form in the morning. But since you were so nice to open this and make it this far, here’s the video of Cam, Rasa, and myself.
WATCH: KENTUCKY DERBY PICKS, BETS PREVIEW
SPRING FOOTBALL PROPS
Like at the beginning of XFL season, the start of the USFL season has been a printing press for Run The Sims subs. Myself included!
RUN THE SIMS: PROJECTIONS, SIMULATOR, LINEUP BUILDER
Things could have been better however. I lost out on $4,000 because McLeod Bethel-Thompson actually went over blowing up different combos of this one with 6-Picks. It happens. But I will actively root against that guy the best of his career. Overall 8 of the 10 highest probability plays from the simulations came through for us.
Now, this was the case during XFL season too, but Prize Picks basically just waited for RTS to run numbers and copy them, thus killing the edge. That hasn’t happened as of yet, and I’m hoping we get a few more weeks of glory before they finally catch on.
Almost no sports books are offering USFL props, so Prize Picks is the best spot to attack. The numbers for this week have yet to be released, but jumping on them right away always give you incredible EV. Most of the line I go in on were 5-15 yards higher than way they ended up closing at.
You can get a deposit match of up to $100 with code “DOP” at Prize Picks btw.
Get up to a $100 deposit match at Prize Picks using code “DOP” at sign up
Because I can’t have too much money in my account at one time, I decided to dunk off some funds on Thursday golf if you wanna join.
THE TIDBITS
https://twitter.com/ToeTagginTambo/status/1653738404260069376
EXTRA CONTENT
If you need hours to kill over the next few days, i released a 120 minute rando conversation I had with Davis where we simply jumped around topic-to-topic
WATCH HERE
NFL Draft Recap
AI Tools
Cryotherapy
Vanderpump Rules
MMN Best Sitcom Bracket
Next James Bond
Golf lessons
You can find it on the PME pod feed too.
PGA DRAFTKINGS PICKS & NOTES
If you followed along with the research show Sunday, I’ve updated my power rankings this week for a short term model to try and catch lightning in a bottle. Of course, you can always make your own rankings when you’re a Fantasy National member.
GET 20% OFF ALL RESEARCH TOOLS, LINEUP GENERATOR, OWNERSHIP PROJECTIONS AND MORE AT FANTASY NATIONAL
Tambo and I talked through our strategies this week, including how to build if you want to start with Rory or simply go three balanced and work from there.
WATCH: WELLS FARGO DK PICKS, STRATGEY & OWNERSHIP
As we were talking through lineups, it became clear, that the balanced builds projected out basically the same as one extreme punt (we used Carson Young in most of ours at $6,100) then trying to jam in as many studs as possible. Since few people will use that strategy, you can start to gravitate back towards some of the chalkier players if you like.
2023 Wells Fargo Championship: Key Stats
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Proximity Gained 200+ Yards
Par 4s Gained: 450-500 Yards
I already showed off short term (12 rounds), here’s what my ranks look like over the past 75 rounds…
GET 20% OFF ALL RESEARCH TOOLS, LINEUP GENERATOR, OWNERSHIP PROJECTIONS AND MORE AT FANTASY NATIONAL
2023 Wells Fargo Championship: Course
Course: Quail Hollow
Yardage: 7,538
Par: 71
Greens: Champion G12 bermudagrass overseeded with Poa
Par 3 (4): Average distance - 196 yards. As a whole, the Par 3s played over par a season ago.
Hole 17 could create some issues down the stretch on Sunday: 26.3% bogey-or-worse rate (8.6% double or worse, highest on the course).
Par 4 (11): Eight measure over 450 yards. Four of the five most difficult holes are Par 4s. No. 14 is 344 yards and has the third-highest eagle rate (1.1%) and birdie rate (34%).
Par 5 (3): No. 7 is reachable in two and holds the highest eagle rate on the course at 3%. No. 15 has the lowest scoring average to par (-0.46) with a 45% birdie rate.
2023 Wells Fargo Championship: Past Winners
2022: Max Homa (-8) (TPC Potomac)
2021: Rory McIlroy (-10)
2019: Max Homa (-15)
2018: Jason Day (-12)
2017: Brian Harman (-10) (Eagle Point Golf Club)
2016: James Hahn (-9)
2015: Rory McIlory (-21)
2022: Different Course
2021: Rory McIlroy (-10, one clear of Abe Ancer)
Had no form entering play (consecutive missed cuts)
No stand out round, but 66-68 in three of four days (was eight back after shooting a 72 on Thursday)
Each of the Top 8 finishers picked up at least 1.7 strokes with their putter (five of them gained at least 3.5 strokes)
2019: Max Homa (-15, three clear of Joel Dahmen)
Had no form entering play (three straight finishes outside the Top 40)
His Friday 63 was not only the round of the day, it ended up being the difference on the final leaderboard (Dahmen shot a 66)
Jason Day was the only Top 30 finisher to lose strokes on approach
Homa won on the back of +9.9 strokes putting (best in the field)
2018: Jason Day (-12, two clear of Nick Watney and Aaron Wise)
Was Top 20 in seven of eight events prior
Day was the only golfer to card four rounds in the 60s
Four of the top six in driving distance cashed Top 10 paychecks (six of the Top 12 finishers lost fairways to the field)
2017: Different Course
2016: James Hahn (-9, playoff win over Roberto Castro)
Had no form entering play (hadn’t made a cut in over three months)
His 68 on moving day was the best on the course and proved critical (three strokes better than Castro)
Hahn and Castro were two of the Top 6 players in the field in Proximity in the 75-100 yard bucket
2015: Rory McIlory (-21, seven clear of Patrick Rodgers and Webb Simpson)
Elite lead in form (Top-11 in each of his four events prior)
McIlroy’s 61 on Saturday was 7+ strokes better than any of the next five on the final leaderboard
Six of the Top 10 in SG: OTT cashed Top 10 pay checks
BIRDIE STREAK
Quail Hollow stuffs its hardest holes at the very end. The Green Mile — Holes 16/17/18 — are three of the four toughest on the course; each possessing a birdie rate under 9%. For DraftKings Showdown, the edge will go to the players teeing off on Hole No. 1. Holes 7/8/10 are three of the easiest five. All have birdie or better rates over 27%. If you can be one of the 11% of players to walk away with a birdie on No. 9, a streak isn’t likely, but certainly possible, unlike the closing stretch.
DRAFTKINGS
2022: Different Course
2021: Rory ($10,000) as the fifth most expensive golfer on the board … three of the top four DraftKings scorers cost you at least $8,900. That said, three of the top-seven scorers run you no more than $7,000. All three of those players are bombers (Keith Mitchell, Gary Woodland, Luke List).
2019: The top two scorers cost an average of $7,100, but don’t take that to mean that it was chaos at the top of the DraftKings board … the next four on the DK leaderboard cost an average of nearly $9,500.
14 of the 16 most expensive golfers made the cut.
2018: Day ($10,200) required you to pay up, but the average price of the next six finishers in DraftKings scoring was under $8,000.
Finau finished T-21 for the week on the final leaderboard, but he was the sixth-highest scorer on DraftKings (tied on the leaderboard with Justin Thomas … he out-scored JT 88-63 in terms of DKFP).
WEATHER
It’s pretty cold for May in North Carolina, and it looks like a rainy Saturday, but the wind doesn’t seem like it will be a factor.
— PM