Week NFL 9 Injury List, Betting Notes
Week NFL 9 Injury List, Betting Notes
+ HOT LINKS
HOT LINKS
Week 9 INJURIES, RANKS UPDATE, PROPS
WEEK 9 DFS PICKS & BETS
Week 9 DraftKings Picks
NFL BEST BETS
SPREAD PICKS & CUST CORNER
Week 9 RANKINGS
WATCH: Week 9 Rankings By Position
RB https://bit.ly/22W9RBRanks
WR https://bit.ly/22W9WRRanks
QB https://bit.ly/22W9QBRanks
TE/DST https://bit.ly/22W9TEDST
Week 9 Injury Cheatsheet
RB
Jonathan Taylor (Ankle) — OUT
Darrel Williams (hip) — OUT; Placed on IR
J.D. McKissic (neck) — OUT
Chuba Hubbard (ankle) — OUT
Mark Ingram (Knee) — OUT
Damien Harris (illness) — Likely OUT
Gus Edwards (Hamstring) — Likely OUT
James Conner (Ribs) — GAME TIME DECISION
D'Andre Swift (ankle, shoulder) — Likely IN
Cordarrelle Patterson (knee) — Likely IN
James Robinson (knee) — Questionable
Cam Akers (Personal) — Questionable
WR
Keenan Allen (Hamstring) — OUT
Mike Williams (Ankle) — OUT
DeVante Parker (Knee) — OUT
Corey Davis (knee) — OUT
Russell Gage (hamstring) — OUT
Jahan Dotson (hamstring) — OUT
Josh Reynolds (back) — Likely OUT
Allen Lazard (shoulder) — GAME TIME DECISION
Ja'Marr Chase (hip) — OUT 2-6 Weeks
Michael Thomas (Toe) — Placed on IR
Rashod Bateman (foot) — Placed on IR
Cooper Kupp (ankle) — IN
DeAndre Carter (illness) — Questionable
Christian Watson (concussion) — Questionable
Jarvis Landry (Ankle) — Questionable
Demarcus Robinson (groin) — Questionable
Julio Jones (knee) — Questionable
Mack Hollins (heel) — Questionable
Brandin Cooks (Personal) — DNP
Nico Collins (groin) — DNP
TE
Darren Waller (hamstring) — Likely OUT
Irv Smith (ankle) — OUT for Season
Donald Parham (Hamstring) — Placed on IR
Cameron Brate (Neck) — OUT
Mark Andrews (knee) — Likely OUT
Brock Wright (Concussion) — GAME TIME DECISION
Adam Trautman (Leg) — Questionable
QB
Ryan Tannehill (Ankle) — GAME TIME DECISION
DFS PICKS Week 9
We’ve partnered with JOCK MKT for football season, and so far BIG JOHN Laghezza has been plucking the values from the high and low end. If you haven’t played JOCK MKT yet, it’s essentially a stock market for players, so you buy them a one price for the week and see if they turn a profit.
WATCH: NFL Week 9 DFS Picks + Bets
It’s legit great if you only want to play for a little bit of cash per week. Find your penny stock players and cash. They’ve been an amazing partner with us at MMN, (and people are WINNING!) so give them a shot. And here’s some bribery…
Get a deposit match up to $100 with first deposit at JOCK MKT with Code “MMN”
If you missed me and Tambo chatting about the Week 9 DraftKings slate… SHAME. Still time to rectify that however. We talked through Justin Herbert stacks along with the best games to target on the slate.
WATCH/LISTEN: Week 9 DraftKings Picks & Strategy
You can always just skip that and get your own info and build your own designs with Run the Sims…
NFL TOOLS: 10% OFF OPTIMIZER, CUSTOM PROJECTIONS, LINEUP GENERATOR on Weekly, Monthly or Annual Plan
DK GALAXY BRAIN: Optimal Stack
OK, pull up a chair and pour your favorite beverage, this is going to take a minute, but the payoff will be there. In DFS, we want stacks. That much we know. We also want efficiency. So I took a look at the top 20 QB games this season based on fantasy points per opportunity (pass attempts + rush attempts). Here’s what that research returned:
17 of those games came with an over/under north of 43
14 of those games came from a QB on a favorite
13 of those games came in a game with a spread of less than 4 points
50.4% of NFL games have had a spread in that range
65% of these efficient fantasy games have had a spread in that range
11 of those games came on the road (no edge in being home)
That’s the scratch work, Here are the returns for Week 9. These are the teams on the main slate that are favored by less than 4 with projected total over 43 points:
- Vikings (at WAS)
- Packers (at DET)
- Chargers (at ATL)
- Raiders (at JAX)
- Cardinals (vs SEA)
So that makes our QB pool. But in GPP’s banking on a QB without a stack is dangerous, so let’s dive into the WR big games. Of the top 40 WR games in terms of DK fantasy points this season …
- 33 of those receivers had a target share of at least 25%
- 28 saw an end zone target
So now we have a QB and a WR profile. You could take fliers on all of these stacks and be just fine, but I’m assuming you don’t have a ton of different entries on a weekly basis, so let’s try to narrow it down. Below is the data for the top receiver in each of these offenses … the cost of the stack (QB + WR), how many games they’ve earned a 25% target share and how many games they’ve seen an end zone target.
Justin Jefferson
Primary stack: $14,800
25% target share: 6/7
EZ target: 4/7
Allen Lazard (If he goes)
Primary stack: $11,900
25% target share: 1/6
EZ target: 2/6
Josh Palmer (by way of Mike Williams’ role)
Primary stack: $12,300
25% target share: 2/7
EZ target: 5/7
Davante Adams
Primary stack: $13,500
25% target share: 4/7
EZ target: 4/7
Deandre Hopkins (Hopkins, Hollywood)
Primary stack: $15,300
25% target share: 2/2, 4/6
EZ target: 1/2, 2/6
Last step: combining these data points. I’m putting the 25% target share and EZ target numbers together (for example: Jefferson’s 6/7 and 4/7 leaves us with 10/14, or 0.71). From there, I’m dividing the price of the stack by that number. In doing so, I get a single number for each stack and because of the order in which I did this, the LOWER the number the better. Here are the results:
1. Cousins/Jefferson: 20,845
2. Carr/Adams: 23,694
3. Herbert/Palmer: 24,600
4. Murray/Hopkins: 27,321
5. Rodgers/Lazard: 47,600
Because I’m a glutton for punishment, I’m using this information to build my QB-WR-WR stack with a bring back. Terry McLaurin averages over 90 yards per game when catching 6+ passes for his career and the 7 times a receiver has done that vs MIN this season, they’ve averaged 115.1 yards per game. Don’t think this will be a popular build. Get yourself a cheap tight end and defense … upwards of $6,000 left to fill out your roster (RB, RB, Flex). Weird week with all the byes and the elite talent in island games … this might be crazy enough to work!
The TIDBITS
You should really do yourself a favor and follow Tambo…
Week 9 Props
Basically, I love Heinicke over passing yard props this week. Now the problem: I don’t have a clear second favorite to pair with him. So I did some mixing and matching…
WATCH: Week 9 Props & Prize Picks
Use code “MMN” at Prize Picks for a deposit match up to $100
I like each of these ones to pair with him as a 2-Play, so I decided to chuck all my secondary favs in together…
— PM