Week NFL 9 Injury List, Betting Notes

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Mayo Media

Nov 05, 2022

Week 9 INJURIES, RANKS UPDATE, PROPS

Week 9 RANKINGS

WATCH: Week 9 Rankings By Position

TE/DST https://bit.ly/22W9TEDST

Week 9 Injury Cheatsheet

Jonathan Taylor (Ankle) — OUT

Darrel Williams (hip) — OUT; Placed on IR

J.D. McKissic (neck) — OUT

Chuba Hubbard (ankle) — OUT

Mark Ingram (Knee) — OUT

Damien Harris (illness) — Likely OUT

Gus Edwards (Hamstring) — Likely OUT

James Conner (Ribs) — GAME TIME DECISION

D'Andre Swift (ankle, shoulder) — Likely IN

Cordarrelle Patterson (knee) — Likely IN

James Robinson (knee) — Questionable

Cam Akers (Personal) — Questionable

Keenan Allen (Hamstring) — OUT

Mike Williams (Ankle) — OUT

DeVante Parker (Knee) — OUT

Corey Davis (knee) — OUT

Russell Gage (hamstring) — OUT

Jahan Dotson (hamstring) — OUT

Josh Reynolds (back) — Likely OUT

Allen Lazard (shoulder) — GAME TIME DECISION

Ja'Marr Chase (hip) — OUT 2-6 Weeks

Michael Thomas (Toe) — Placed on IR

Rashod Bateman (foot) — Placed on IR

Cooper Kupp (ankle) — IN

DeAndre Carter (illness) — Questionable

Christian Watson (concussion) — Questionable

Jarvis Landry (Ankle) — Questionable

Demarcus Robinson (groin) — Questionable

Julio Jones (knee) — Questionable

Mack Hollins (heel) — Questionable

Brandin Cooks (Personal) — DNP

Nico Collins (groin) — DNP

Darren Waller (hamstring) — Likely OUT

Irv Smith (ankle) — OUT for Season

Donald Parham (Hamstring) — Placed on IR

Cameron Brate (Neck) — OUT

Mark Andrews (knee) — Likely OUT

Brock Wright (Concussion) — GAME TIME DECISION

Adam Trautman (Leg) — Questionable

Ryan Tannehill (Ankle) — GAME TIME DECISION

DFS PICKS Week 9

We’ve partnered with JOCK MKT for football season, and so far BIG JOHN Laghezza has been plucking the values from the high and low end. If you haven’t played JOCK MKT yet, it’s essentially a stock market for players, so you buy them a one price for the week and see if they turn a profit.

WATCH: NFL Week 9 DFS Picks + Bets

It’s legit great if you only want to play for a little bit of cash per week. Find your penny stock players and cash. They’ve been an amazing partner with us at MMN, (and people are WINNING!) so give them a shot. And here’s some bribery…

Get a deposit match up to $100 with first deposit at JOCK MKT with Code “MMN”

If you missed me and Tambo chatting about the Week 9 DraftKings slate… SHAME. Still time to rectify that however. We talked through Justin Herbert stacks along with the best games to target on the slate.

WATCH/LISTEN: Week 9 DraftKings Picks & Strategy

You can always just skip that and get your own info and build your own designs with Run the Sims…

NFL TOOLS: 10% OFF OPTIMIZER, CUSTOM PROJECTIONS, LINEUP GENERATOR on Weekly, Monthly or Annual Plan

DK GALAXY BRAIN: Optimal Stack

OK, pull up a chair and pour your favorite beverage, this is going to take a minute, but the payoff will be there. In DFS, we want stacks. That much we know. We also want efficiency. So I took a look at the top 20 QB games this season based on fantasy points per opportunity (pass attempts + rush attempts). Here’s what that research returned:

17 of those games came with an over/under north of 43
14 of those games came from a QB on a favorite
13 of those games came in a game with a spread of less than 4 points
50.4% of NFL games have had a spread in that range
65% of these efficient fantasy games have had a spread in that range
11 of those games came on the road (no edge in being home)

That’s the scratch work, Here are the returns for Week 9. These are the teams on the main slate that are favored by less than 4 with projected total over 43 points:

- Vikings (at WAS)

- Packers (at DET)

- Chargers (at ATL)

- Raiders (at JAX)

- Cardinals (vs SEA)

So that makes our QB pool. But in GPP’s banking on a QB without a stack is dangerous, so let’s dive into the WR big games. Of the top 40 WR games in terms of DK fantasy points this season …

- 33 of those receivers had a target share of at least 25%

- 28 saw an end zone target

So now we have a QB and a WR profile. You could take fliers on all of these stacks and be just fine, but I’m assuming you don’t have a ton of different entries on a weekly basis, so let’s try to narrow it down. Below is the data for the top receiver in each of these offenses … the cost of the stack (QB + WR), how many games they’ve earned a 25% target share and how many games they’ve seen an end zone target.

Justin Jefferson

Primary stack: $14,800
25% target share: 6/7
EZ target: 4/7

Allen Lazard (If he goes)

Primary stack: $11,900
25% target share: 1/6
EZ target: 2/6

Josh Palmer (by way of Mike Williams’ role)

Primary stack: $12,300
25% target share: 2/7
EZ target: 5/7

Davante Adams

Primary stack: $13,500
25% target share: 4/7
EZ target: 4/7

Deandre Hopkins (Hopkins, Hollywood)

Primary stack: $15,300
25% target share: 2/2, 4/6
EZ target: 1/2, 2/6

Last step: combining these data points. I’m putting the 25% target share and EZ target numbers together (for example: Jefferson’s 6/7 and 4/7 leaves us with 10/14, or 0.71). From there, I’m dividing the price of the stack by that number. In doing so, I get a single number for each stack and because of the order in which I did this, the LOWER the number the better. Here are the results:

1. Cousins/Jefferson: 20,845

2. Carr/Adams: 23,694

3. Herbert/Palmer: 24,600

4. Murray/Hopkins: 27,321

5. Rodgers/Lazard: 47,600

Because I’m a glutton for punishment, I’m using this information to build my QB-WR-WR stack with a bring back. Terry McLaurin averages over 90 yards per game when catching 6+ passes for his career and the 7 times a receiver has done that vs MIN this season, they’ve averaged 115.1 yards per game. Don’t think this will be a popular build. Get yourself a cheap tight end and defense … upwards of $6,000 left to fill out your roster (RB, RB, Flex). Weird week with all the byes and the elite talent in island games … this might be crazy enough to work!

The TIDBITS

You should really do yourself a favor and follow Tambo…

Tyler Tamboline @ToeTagginTambo

TAMBO’S TIDBITS 🏈🧵 Every week I read/watch a LOT of the free NFL content around the industry. I compile screenshots of the information that stands out to me and that can help you with your Bets/DFS play. Here’s my 10+ favorite tidbits for Week 9! 💰 RT/SHARE ⤵️🙌🏼

Week 9 Props

Basically, I love Heinicke over passing yard props this week. Now the problem: I don’t have a clear second favorite to pair with him. So I did some mixing and matching…