Week NFL 7 Injury List, DK Builds
+ Cheatsheets
Note: In the Saturday show I said Christian McCaffrey won’t score DraftKings points this week. I misspoke. He WILL score DK points this week.
ICYMI
HOT LINKS
Saturday Injury + Ranks Update & Props
Week 7 DraftKings Picks
WEEK 7 BEST BETS
WATCH: Week 7 Spreads + Cust Corner
Week 7 RANKINGS
WATCH: Week 7 Rankings By Position
RB bit.ly/22W7RBs
WR bit.ly/22W7WRs
QB bit.ly/22W7QBs
DST/TE bit.ly/22W7TEDST
Week 7 Injury Cheatsheet
RB
J.K. Dobbins (knee) — OUT 4-6 Weeks
D’Andre Swift (Shoulder) — Likely OUT
Gus Edwards (Knee) — Likely IN
Jonathan Taylor (Ankle) — Likely IN
Nyhiem Hines (concussion) — Likely IN
Justice Hill — Likely IN
Damien Harris (Hamstring) — IN
James Conner (Ribs) — DNP
Darrel Williams (knee) — DNP
WR
Kennan Allen (hamstring) — Game Time Decision
Elijah Moore (Personal) — OUT
Julio Jones (Hamstring) — OUT
Josh Palmer (Concussion) — OUT
Jamal Agnew (Knee) — OUT
DJ Chark (Ankle) — OUT
Kadarius Toney (Hamstring) — OUT
Kenny Golladay (knee) — OUT
Christian Watson (hamstring) — OUT
Jahan Dotson (hamstring) — OUT
Randall Cobb (Ankle) — Placed on IR
Jaylen Waddle (shoulder) — Likely IN
Rashod Bateman (foot) — Likely IN
Sammy Watkins (hamstring) — Likely IN
Tyler Lockett (hamstring) — Likely IN
Marvin Jones (hamstring) — Likely IN
Josh Reynolds (knee) — Likely IN
Hunter Renfrow (hip) — Likely IN
Kendrick Bourne (Toe) — Questionable
Nelson Agholor (Hamstring) — Questionable
Michael Thomas (Toe) — DNP
Jarvis Landry (Ankle) — DNP
Marquise Brown (Foot) — OUT 4-6 Weeks
TE
Adam Trautman (Leg) — DNP
Darren Waller (hamstring) — OUT
Logan Thomas (Knee) — OUT
Donald Parham (Concussion) — OUT
Cameron Brate (Neck) — OUT
Dalton Schultz (Knee) — Likely IN
Pat Freiermuth (concussion) — Likley IN
QB
Russell Wilson (hamstring) — OUT
Kenny Pickett (Concussion) — IN
Tua Tagovailoa (back/ankle) — Likely IN
PJ Walker — IN
Mac Jones (Ankle) — Likely IN
Carson Wentz (Thumb) — Placed on IR
Baker Mayfield (Ankle) — OUT
GALAXY BRAIN: Making The Chalk Work
With Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts and Kyler Murray off the main slate, there are only so many ways to build. Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes are priced a tier ahead of any other QB and I get it … not for me. Justin Herbert (vs SEA), Joe Burrow (vs ATL) and Dak Prescott (vs DET) all make plenty of sense, but so does Derek Carr (vs HOU). I expect all of them to be somewhat popular and I think that’s right. I have Davante Adams as my WR1 this week and his QB is the cheapest of this bunch, so let’s go that way.
HOU allows the 6th most yards per completion
HOU ranks 5th in pressure rate when blitzing
Adams’ target share spikes from 29% to 38.2% when Carr is pressured
So there’s a small stack and the bring back is straight forward. The Raiders are the 4th worst defense in terms of yards allowed after contact per carry and Dameon Pierce is a downhill runner that has 60 carries/13 targets over Houston’s past three games. I don’t think any of this is unique yet, nor do I think adding Kenneth Walker (at LAC) is. Don’t care. Chalk doesn’t make it wrong, a lineup of ONLY chalk plays is wrong, but chalky pieces by themselves is not.
You can do whatever you want at TE and DST. I tend to pay down, but from an ownership perspective, if you’re not on the elite tight ends, you’re likely falling into that “these guys carry some ownership, but not at a prohibitive level” tier. Do what you like. The potential skeleton key … that’s why you’ve read this far.
“Washington deep threat”. Sure, nailing the name is important, but you’re getting this newsletter well in advance of lock, so you can read the tea leaves however you like. Based on how thing look, Cam Sims could be that guy. For the season, 44 of his 63 routes run this season have come over the past two weeks, a role spike that directly correlates with iffy health to both Jahan Dotson and Dyami Brown. It’s a revolving door for this role and that’s a pain, but it lines up as a potential smash spot for that role, so it’s worth it to spend tomorrow morning digging in further to get a feel for who will fill it.
- GB: highest deep CMP% allowed this season
- Heinicke: 7th highest percentage of passes thrown 20+ yards last season (a higher rate than Aaron Rodgers or Joe Burrow)
Whoever you land on in this spot is not going to be all that popular and opens you up to pay up just about everywhere else. Now … let’s go out there and win some moniesssssss.
Week 7 DFS VALUES
Big John has the Week 6 DFS Picks, Props & JOCK MKT Plays for you in a nice, quick fashion.
WATCH: NFL Week 7 DFS Picks + Bets + JOCK MKT Values
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Week 7 Props & DraftKings
I went gut over with the picks this week, and fortuneately, the projections backed me up on it.
WATCH: Week 7 Props & Prize Picks
Use code “MMN” at Prize Picks for a deposit match up to $100
I’m not sure if it’s going to be every week, but Prize Picks is offering 15x on a 5-Play Friday afternoons from 3-6pm ET now. At least they have the past two weeks. I know it’s kinda early to get plays in, but I like the idea of 15x.
Like most, the Run The Sims projections are in love with Josh Jacobs and Bengals as the most optimal plays of the main slate on DraftKings
Of course, you can make your custom inputs and create your own optimals and lineup those lineups…
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— PM