Week NFL 6 Injury List, DK Builds, Betting Notes
+ Props & Cheatsheets
Week 6 DFS VALUES
Big John has the Week 6 DFS Picks, Props & JOCK MKT Plays for you in a nice, quick fashion.
WATCH: NFL Week 6 DFS Picks + Bets + JOCK MKT Values
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Week 6 Injury Cheatsheet
RB
Cam Akers (Personal) — OUT
Darrel Williams (knee) — OUT
James Conner (Ribs) — OUT
Jonathan Taylor (Ankle) — OUT
Nyhiem Hines (concussion)— OUT
Damien Harris (Hamstring) — Likely OUT
Justice Hill — Likely OUT
Raheem Mostert (knee) — Likely IN
Boston Scott (Ribs) — Questionable
Gus Edwards (Knee) — Questionable
Rashaad Penny (Ankle) — Out for season
D’Andre Swift (Shoulder) — On Bye
WR
Michael Thomas (Toe) — OUarvis Landry (Ankle) — OUT
Kadarius Toney (Hamstring) — OUT
Kenny Golladay (knee) — OUT
Christian Watson (hamstring) — OUT
Rashod Bateman (foot) — OUT
Nelson Agholor (Hamstring) — OUT
Ashton Dulin — On Injured Reserve
Julio Jones — Likely OUT
Kennan Allen (hamstring) — Likely OUT
Chris Olave (Concussion) — Likely OUT
Zay Jones (Ankle) — Likely IN
Tee Higgins (Ankle) — Questionable
Jamison Crowder (ankle) — Questionable
Wan’Dale Robinson (Knee) — Questionable
Jake Kumerow (ankle) — Questionable
Jahan Dotson (hamstring) — Missed TNF
DJ Chark (Ankle) — On Bye
TE
Pat Freiermuth (concussion) — OUT
Cameron Brate (Concussion) — Likely IN
Kyle Pitts (hamstring) — Likely IN
Brevin Jordan (Ankle) — Questionable
Jonnu Smith (Ankle) — Questionable
Logan Thomas (Knee) — Missed TNF
Darren Waller (hamstring) — On Bye
QB
Teddy Bridgewater (Concussion) — Likely IN but as backup
Jameis Winston (Back) — Likely IN but as back up
Mac Jones (Ankle) — Likely OUT
Tua Tagovailoa (back/ankle) — OUT; Should return next week
Baker Mayfield (Ankle) — OUT multiple weeks
WATCH: Week 6 Injuries & Rankings Update
Week 6 Rankings Lists
RB bit.ly/22W6RBs
WR bit.ly/22W6WRs
QB bit.ly/22W6QBs
TE/DST bit.ly/22W6TEDST
GALAXY BRAIN: The “other” game
Turn on the TV. Bills/Chiefs. Go to the bar. Bills/Chiefs. Go to the dentist and get stuck in one of those weird spots where the dentist insists on talking, knowing you can’t respond. Bills/Chiefs. You get the idea … everyone is excited for the Allen/Mahomes showdown tomorrow afternoon and for good reason. And that’s exactly why I’m building GPP lineups without a focus on that game this week. Let me explain.
Any time the public “knows” there is a game to overweigh, it requires perfection elsewhere to make any sort of money. If you go with a Allen-Diggs-Davis stack and bring it back with Kelce, you have $3,820 left per player. I’m not concerned with the pinching of pennies to make that work, I’m concerned that everyone with that foundation lands on the same cheap guys, so even if we get it right, your answer to the “how much do I win when I’m right” question isn’t overly appealing. Similar idea if you take the Chiefs side. Depending on the exact players you use (the KC WR will vary and my guess is Gabe Davis is the popular bring back for some salary relief and the ability to get KC the ball back quickly), you may have a few more bucks to play with per remaining player, but still … you’re looking cheap in all the same spots that most of the field is. In a spot like that, you put yourself in a bad spot. You have to hit a thin play that will likely be more popular than usual due to the popularity of this Bills/Chiefs game. That’s not for me.
The Bills/Chiefs total is hovering around 54 and that’s great … but it means that a game with a projected total of 50+ is hardly going to be touched. Yep. I’m fighting the Allen/Mahomes shootout by counting on offenses led by Kyler Murray and Geno Smith. What a time to be alive.
If you roll out the Kyler double and decide to go Rondale Moore over Hollywood Brown (SEA has struggled everywhere, but YAC has been an issue and given Moore’s 2.0 aDOT In Week 5, he’s in a spot to expose that weakness) with Ertz, you’ve got leveraged upside. Bring it back with both Seahawks due to the condensed target distribution in Seattle and the game script we are implying by way of a Arizona triple … we’ve got something cooking. This gives you nearly $1,500 more left per player than the Buffalo triple (plus Kelce) while also leveraging you off of a pair of popular one-off plays in this game (Hollywood and Ken Walker). There are 11 games on the main slate, but if you get just two of them right (BUF/KC underwhelms, AZ/SEA lives up to expectations), you’re in a spot to cash.
But we don’t aim to cash, we aim to retire. So … Chiefs D/ST. Yea, you heard me. We are already counting on that game underwhelming, so why not double down? And it’s not just a blind play, there are actual metrics to support the bold call:
KC is the 2nd best at creating pressure when blitzing this season
Not buying a 5-game sample? They are 2nd best since the beginning of last season
Josh Allen’s INT rate when blitzed is pacing for a career high
Josh Allen’s sack rate when blitzed is pacing for the highest rate since he became fantasy royalty
Now we are cookin’. You’ve got over $6,200 per player left to fill out your final three spots (RB-RB-flex) and can do just about anything you want given how unique the core of your lineup is. Want to fade CUST’s Jets and plug in a Packer RB? Go for it. Jeff Wilson as a heavy favorite in a Shanahan system? Giddy up. A skinny stack with Alvin Kamara and a potentially under-owned Tee Higgins (Latimore has the potential to shadow Ja’Marr Chase)? Let’s get it. Hell, you could get up to Christian McCaffrey and be unique in doing so because of the popularity in that Bills/Chiefs game. Fill out the roster however you’d like … there’s a lot of upside (and downside, but isn’t there always?) in fading the popular build this week.
Week 6 Props & DraftKings
I really went to the bottom of the barrel for Prize Picks, but they’re some of my strongest plays by the projections
WATCH: Week 6 Props & Prize Picks
Use code “MMN” at Prize Picks for a deposit match up to $100
They’re also gifting you a free sqaure this week for the start of NBA. Steph Curry’s points line is set at 0.5. I’m no hoops head, but I’ll take the over on that. Problem is, you can only do it up to a $20 entry. Still, a good way to try and 10x your money.
Now that Jonathan Taylor is off the slate, the Run The Sims projections are in love with Eno Benjamin as the most optimal play of the main slate on DraftKings.
Of course, you can make your custom inputs and create your own optimals and lineup those lineups…
NFL TOOLS: 10% OFF OPTIMIZER, CUSTOM PROJECTIONS, LINEUP GENERATOR on Weekly, Monthly or Annual Plan
Reminder to fill up the PME Listener League too. Under 300 spots remain, but cutting this close likely means we won’t get to the 4,000 RAKE FREE entries I want for next week.
DIRECT LINK: Week 6 PME DRAFTKINGS LISTENERS LEAGUE
Me, Cam, and Rob did our best bets. Hopefully we can improve coming off a season worst perfroance in Week 5. Also, it’s funny, Taylor is known as one of the few true impact RBs in the NFL and the spread only moved a half point after he was ruled out.
WATCH: Week 6 Best Bets
— PM