Mayo Media Newsletter

Share this post

Week NFL 6 Injury List, DK Builds, Betting Notes

mayomedia.substack.com

Week NFL 6 Injury List, DK Builds, Betting Notes

+ Props & Cheatsheets

Mayo Media
Oct 15, 2022
3
Share this post

Week NFL 6 Injury List, DK Builds, Betting Notes

mayomedia.substack.com

Week 6 DFS VALUES

Big John has the Week 6 DFS Picks, Props & JOCK MKT Plays for you in a nice, quick fashion.

WATCH: NFL Week 6 DFS Picks + Bets + JOCK MKT Values

Get a deposit match up to $100 with first deposit at JOCK MKT with Code “MMN”

Week 6 Injury Cheatsheet

RB

Cam Akers (Personal) — OUT

Darrel Williams (knee) — OUT 

James Conner (Ribs) — OUT

Jonathan Taylor (Ankle) — OUT

Nyhiem Hines (concussion)— OUT

Damien Harris (Hamstring) — Likely OUT

Justice Hill — Likely OUT

Raheem Mostert (knee) — Likely IN

Boston Scott (Ribs) — Questionable

Gus Edwards (Knee) — Questionable

Rashaad Penny (Ankle) — Out for season

D’Andre Swift (Shoulder) — On Bye

WR

Michael Thomas (Toe) — OUarvis Landry (Ankle) — OUT

Kadarius Toney (Hamstring) — OUT

Kenny Golladay (knee) — OUT

Christian Watson (hamstring) — OUT

Rashod Bateman (foot) — OUT

Nelson Agholor (Hamstring) — OUT

Ashton Dulin — On Injured Reserve

Julio Jones — Likely OUT

Kennan Allen (hamstring) — Likely OUT

Chris Olave (Concussion) — Likely OUT

Zay Jones (Ankle) — Likely IN

Tee Higgins (Ankle) — Questionable

Jamison Crowder (ankle) — Questionable

Wan’Dale Robinson (Knee) — Questionable

Jake Kumerow (ankle) — Questionable

Jahan Dotson (hamstring) — Missed TNF

DJ Chark (Ankle) — On Bye

TE

Pat Freiermuth (concussion) — OUT 

Cameron Brate (Concussion) — Likely IN

Kyle Pitts (hamstring) — Likely IN

Brevin Jordan (Ankle) — Questionable

Jonnu Smith (Ankle) — Questionable

Logan Thomas (Knee) — Missed TNF

Darren Waller (hamstring) — On Bye

QB

Teddy Bridgewater (Concussion) — Likely IN but as backup

Jameis Winston (Back) — Likely IN but as back up

Mac Jones (Ankle) — Likely OUT

Tua Tagovailoa (back/ankle) — OUT; Should return next week

Baker Mayfield (Ankle) — OUT multiple weeks

WATCH: Week 6 Injuries & Rankings Update

Week 6 Rankings Lists

RB bit.ly/22W6RBs

WR bit.ly/22W6WRs

QB bit.ly/22W6QBs

TE/DST bit.ly/22W6TEDST

GALAXY BRAIN: The “other” game

Turn on the TV. Bills/Chiefs. Go to the bar. Bills/Chiefs. Go to the dentist and get stuck in one of those weird spots where the dentist insists on talking, knowing you can’t respond. Bills/Chiefs. You get the idea … everyone is excited for the Allen/Mahomes showdown tomorrow afternoon and for good reason. And that’s exactly why I’m building GPP lineups without a focus on that game this week. Let me explain.

Any time the public “knows” there is a game to overweigh, it requires perfection elsewhere to make any sort of money. If you go with a Allen-Diggs-Davis stack and bring it back with Kelce, you have $3,820 left per player. I’m not concerned with the pinching of pennies to make that work, I’m concerned that everyone with that foundation lands on the same cheap guys, so even if we get it right, your answer to the “how much do I win when I’m right” question isn’t overly appealing. Similar idea if you take the Chiefs side. Depending on the exact players you use (the KC WR will vary and my guess is Gabe Davis is the popular bring back for some salary relief and the ability to get KC the ball back quickly), you may have a few more bucks to play with per remaining player, but still … you’re looking cheap in all the same spots that most of the field is. In a spot like that, you put yourself in a bad spot. You have to hit a thin play that will likely be more popular than usual due to the popularity of this Bills/Chiefs game. That’s not for me.

The Bills/Chiefs total is hovering around 54 and that’s great … but it means that a game with a projected total of 50+ is hardly going to be touched. Yep. I’m fighting the Allen/Mahomes shootout by counting on offenses led by Kyler Murray and Geno Smith. What a time to be alive.

If you roll out the Kyler double and decide to go Rondale Moore over Hollywood Brown (SEA has struggled everywhere, but YAC has been an issue and given Moore’s 2.0 aDOT In Week 5, he’s in a spot to expose that weakness) with Ertz, you’ve got leveraged upside. Bring it back with both Seahawks due to the condensed target distribution in Seattle and the game script we are implying by way of a Arizona triple … we’ve got something cooking. This gives you nearly $1,500 more left per player than the Buffalo triple (plus Kelce) while also leveraging you off of a pair of popular one-off plays in this game (Hollywood and Ken Walker). There are 11 games on the main slate, but if you get just two of them right (BUF/KC underwhelms, AZ/SEA lives up to expectations), you’re in a spot to cash.

But we don’t aim to cash, we aim to retire. So … Chiefs D/ST. Yea, you heard me. We are already counting on that game underwhelming, so why not double down? And it’s not just a blind play, there are actual metrics to support the bold call:

  • KC is the 2nd best at creating pressure when blitzing this season

  • Not buying a 5-game sample? They are 2nd best since the beginning of last season

  • Josh Allen’s INT rate when blitzed is pacing for a career high

  •  Josh Allen’s sack rate when blitzed is pacing for the highest rate since he became fantasy royalty

Now we are cookin’. You’ve got over $6,200 per player left to fill out your final three spots (RB-RB-flex) and can do just about anything you want given how unique the core of your lineup is. Want to fade CUST’s Jets and plug in a Packer RB? Go for it. Jeff Wilson as a heavy favorite in a Shanahan system? Giddy up. A skinny stack with Alvin Kamara and a potentially under-owned Tee Higgins (Latimore has the potential to shadow Ja’Marr Chase)? Let’s get it. Hell, you could get up to Christian McCaffrey and be unique in doing so because of the popularity in that Bills/Chiefs game. Fill out the roster however you’d like … there’s a lot of upside (and downside, but isn’t there always?) in fading the popular build this week.

Week 6 Props & DraftKings

I really went to the bottom of the barrel for Prize Picks, but they’re some of my strongest plays by the projections

WATCH: Week 6 Props & Prize Picks

Use code “MMN” at Prize Picks for a deposit match up to $100

They’re also gifting you a free sqaure this week for the start of NBA. Steph Curry’s points line is set at 0.5. I’m no hoops head, but I’ll take the over on that. Problem is, you can only do it up to a $20 entry. Still, a good way to try and 10x your money.

Now that Jonathan Taylor is off the slate, the Run The Sims projections are in love with Eno Benjamin as the most optimal play of the main slate on DraftKings.

Of course, you can make your custom inputs and create your own optimals and lineup those lineups…

NFL TOOLS: 10% OFF OPTIMIZER, CUSTOM PROJECTIONS, LINEUP GENERATOR on Weekly, Monthly or Annual Plan

Reminder to fill up the PME Listener League too. Under 300 spots remain, but cutting this close likely means we won’t get to the 4,000 RAKE FREE entries I want for next week.

DIRECT LINK: Week 6 PME DRAFTKINGS LISTENERS LEAGUE

Me, Cam, and Rob did our best bets. Hopefully we can improve coming off a season worst perfroance in Week 5. Also, it’s funny, Taylor is known as one of the few true impact RBs in the NFL and the spread only moved a half point after he was ruled out.

WATCH: Week 6 Best Bets

— PM

Share this post

Week NFL 6 Injury List, DK Builds, Betting Notes

mayomedia.substack.com
TopNew

No posts

Ready for more?

© 2023 Mayo Media
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start WritingGet the app
Substack is the home for great writing