Week NFL 4 Injury List, DK Builds, Betting Notes

+ Props & Cheatsheets

Mayo Media

Oct 01, 2022

VIEWER START/SIT Q&A at 815am ET

WEEK 4 RECAP & Week 5 LOOKAHEAD at 710pm ET

Set a reminder on those links NOWWWWWWWW

KAMARA OUT!!!!

As was hinted Saturday night, Alvin Kamara is OUT for the London game against the Vikings

StaceyDales @StaceyDales

#Saints Coach Dennis Allen just confirmed to me Alvin Kamara will NOT play today (ribs). Jarvis Landry (ankle) will play. #MINvsNO

Ranks are updated now

TE/DST https://bit.ly/22W4TEDST

Week 4 Injury Cheatsheet

WATCH: Week 4 Injury Spin & Rankings Update

Cordarrelle Patterson (Knee) — Likely IN; Needs to test knee in warmups

Alvin Kamara (Ribs) OUT

David Montgomery (Ankle/Knee) — OUT

D’Andre Swift (Shoulder) — OUT; Likely Multiple Weeks

Boston Scott (Ribs) — OUT

Christian McCaffrey (thigh) — GTD

Dalvin Cook (Shoulder) — IN

Jonathan Taylor (Toe) — IN

Dameon Pierce (hip) — IN

Travis Homer (Ribs) — Placed on IR

Michael Thomas (Toe) — OUT

Amon-Ra St. Brown (Ankle) — OUT

DJ Chark (Ankle) — OUT

Kennan Allen (hamstring) — OUT

Hunter Renfrow (Concussion) — OUT

Jakobi Meyers (knee) — OUT

Wan’Dale Robinson (Knee) — OUT

Kadarius Toney (Hamstring) —OUT

AJ Green (Knee) — OUT

Jake Kumerow (ankle) — OUT

Sterling Shepard (Knee) — OUT FOR SEASON

Breshad Perriman (Hamstring) — Likely OUT

Chris Godwin (hamstring) — Likley IN

Julio Jones (knee) — Likley IN

Marquise Brown (Foot) — Likely IN

Ronald Moore (hamstring) — Likely IN

Michael Gallup (knee) — Likely IN

Mecole Hardman (heel) — Likely IN

Velus Jones (Hamstring) — Likely IN

Jarvis Landry (Ankle) — Likely IN

Christian Watson (hamstring) — Likely IN

Kyle Phillips (Shoulder) — Questionable

Week 4 Content

Weekend Rankings Update & Injuries

Week 4 Spread Picks + Cust Corner

Jameis Winston (Back) — OUT

Mac Jones (Ankle) — OUT

Zach Wilson (Knee) — IN

Tua Tagovailoa (back/ankle) — Left Game; OUT Indefinitely

Foster Moreau (Knee) — OUT

Brevin Jordan (Ankle) — OUT

Ryan Griffin (Achilles) — Likely OUT

TJ Hockenson (foot) — IN

Taysom Hill (Ribs) — Likely IN

Dawson Knox (Back) — Likely IN

Dalton Schultz (Knee) — Questionable for Week 4

WEEK 4 PICKS

Big John has the Week 4 DFS Picks, Props & JOCK MKT Plays for you in a nice, quick fashion.

WATCH: NFL Week 4 DFS Picks + Bets + JOCK MKT Values

BTW, if you’re on the fence about testing out JOCK MKT for yourself, email thepatmayoexperience@gmail.com and I may have some free cash for ya to sign up with. Gotta have Pay Pal tho. Or, get yourself a nice BONUS on first deposit…

Get a deposit match up to $100 with first deposit at JOCK MKT with Code “MMN”

GALAXY BRAIN: Fading The Field

“It’s better to be lucky than good.” That’s said because most of us aren’t good, and luck is essentially our only out. Once you realize that and lean into it, building DK lineups becomes much easier.

Checking out the optimal rates at Run The Sims is pretty good place to start…

NFL TOOLS: 10% OFF OPTIMIZER, CUSTOM PROJECTIONS, LINEUP GENERATOR on Weekly, Monthly or Annual Plan

The main slate this week has a pretty clear build. The names are going vary, but I have a hard time thinking that this isn’t going to the basic structure for a high percentage of lineups:

Expensive QB: Josh Allen ($8,400), Lamar Jackson ($8,300), Jalen Hurts ($8,200)
They all come with pass catcher north of $7,000
Middle tier RBs: Jamaal Williams ($6,100), Khalil Herbert ($5,700), Dameon Pierce ($5,600)
Cheap D/ST: you can face The GOOF or Trubisky at a bottom-7 price on this main slate.

Let’s assume all of that. That leaves about $5,000 on the table to fill 3 pass catcher spots and flex. Go a few steps further. Romeo Doubs is going to be popular in this spot, as are cheap tight ends and middling receivers in these high scoring games (DeVonta Smith and Rashod Bateman).

Moral of the story: We may not know the exact roster construction of the field, but we have a good idea of what the resource allocation looks like.

WATCH: Week 4 DraftKings Picks & Pivot Builds

So how do we zig when everyone is zagging? Turn that strategy approximately 137-degrees; 180, that’s too far. Just go hard on a different game. Really hard. For me, that’s Seahawks/Lions. You could get 5 players in this game (Goff-Reynolds-Hockenson, Lockett-Metcalf) and have $5,675 left per player. This allows you to do a few things. Pay up to be different at RB and potentially go with a DST in one of those high scoring games to really leverage the field (Bills if I had to pick, high pressure without blitzing.)

Notes

Lockett/Metcalf combine for an over 50% target share through 3 weeks and this game opened with a 50-point total
TD or 7 targets in every game for Hockenson
Najee Harris won’t be a favorite often and he should come in at a low ownership

Is it comfortable? Not even close. But everyone seeks comfort. You know what not everyone gets? Those big cartoon checks and that is what we are aiming for here!

If you want to know more about how the Run The Sims projections get calculated, here’s how Justin Freeman is adapting them with the new information we’ve gathered from the first three weeks. The sims are only as good as the inputs.

Justin Freeman @JustinFreeman18

I start the season with a "prior" on every pass catcher for targets per routes run. As the season goes on, I age out that prior as routes increase. Here are the players who have over/under performed their prior the most:

BETTING INSIGHT

Now is the time to take ‘dogs in low scoring games. Since 2018, underdogs cover at a 57.3% rate in the first two months of the season and the over/under is shy of 45. Once we get past Halloween, you lose that edge (post-October: 50.7%)

- Saints vs Vikings (London)

- Texans vs FeinBolts

- Commanders at Cowboys

- Jets at Steelers

- Bears at Giants

- Titans at Colts

- Cardinals at Panthers

- Patriots at Packers

- Rams at 49ers

Since 2018, road teams cover 58.6% of the time when they are an underdog by less than a field goal.

- Bears (+2.5) at Giants

- Cardinals (+1.5) at Panthers

- Broncos (+2.5) at Raiders*

- Chiefs (+1) at Bucs

- Rams (+1.5) at 49ers*

*Not buying this trend? Then you like the home team and there are numbers to help your payout in those spots. If you want to galaxy brain a SGP, when a home team covers in those spots (favored by less than a FG) when playing in division, unders have come through 66.7% of the time

(Notice … there are three games that make both of those lists. Interesting)

WATCH: Week 4 Best Bets

Tambo’s Tidbits

And don’t forget to follow Tambo on Twitter to get his Tidbits directly every saturday…

Tyler Tamboline @ToeTagginTambo

TAMBO’S TIDBITS 🏈🧵 Every week I read/watch a LOT of the free NFL content around the industry. I compile the information that stands out to me most and can help you with your Bets/DFS play. Here’s my 10 favorite tidbits for Week 4! 🙌🏼💰 RT to support ⤵️

Week 4 PROPS

After cranking out some winners Monday night on Prize Picks, lets get back to it for Week 4 with the gut play and the stats play

WATCH: Week 4 Props & Projections

For the gut play, I’m satisfied to see the stats actually agree with me on this one, because it just felt off. I haven’t seen a Henry rushing prop this low in about 3 years, so time to jump back on the OVER 73.5. He’s hit this number seven of the eight time against Indy, and realistically only needs to average 3.5 ypc if you expect him in the 20+ carries range. Then I’ll bring it back with Michael Pittman OVER 65.5 rec yards. I have him projected for the second most receiving yards on the main slate on Sunday (88 yards).

Use code “MMN” at Prize Picks for a deposit match up to $100

For the Stats play, RTS made mince meat of Prize Picks last week, nailing eight of the Top 9 plays per the percentages. Even bailed me out of a losing week. Always a bonus. So, let trust the sims again and just blindly tail the Top 2 plays. You could even throw in the Mattison one as a third as it correlates with the Cook prop if you wanna boost that up to 5x. Do I trust the Zach Wilson one? Fuck no. Same thing I said about CPATT last week too however. And he smashed.