Week NFL 4 Injury List, DK Builds, Betting Notes
+ Props & Cheatsheets
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KAMARA OUT!!!!
As was hinted Saturday night, Alvin Kamara is OUT for the London game against the Vikings
Ranks are updated now
RB https://bit.ly/22W4RBRanks
WR https://bit.ly/22W4WRRanks
QB https://bit.ly/22W4QBRanks
TE/DST https://bit.ly/22W4TEDST
Week 4 Injury Cheatsheet
WATCH: Week 4 Injury Spin & Rankings Update
RB
Cordarrelle Patterson (Knee) — Likely IN; Needs to test knee in warmups
Alvin Kamara (Ribs) OUT
David Montgomery (Ankle/Knee) — OUT
D’Andre Swift (Shoulder) — OUT; Likely Multiple Weeks
Boston Scott (Ribs) — OUT
Christian McCaffrey (thigh) — GTD
Dalvin Cook (Shoulder) — IN
Jonathan Taylor (Toe) — IN
Dameon Pierce (hip) — IN
Travis Homer (Ribs) — Placed on IR
WR
Michael Thomas (Toe) — OUT
Amon-Ra St. Brown (Ankle) — OUT
DJ Chark (Ankle) — OUT
Kennan Allen (hamstring) — OUT
Hunter Renfrow (Concussion) — OUT
Jakobi Meyers (knee) — OUT
Wan’Dale Robinson (Knee) — OUT
Kadarius Toney (Hamstring) —OUT
AJ Green (Knee) — OUT
Jake Kumerow (ankle) — OUT
Sterling Shepard (Knee) — OUT FOR SEASON
Breshad Perriman (Hamstring) — Likely OUT
Chris Godwin (hamstring) — Likley IN
Julio Jones (knee) — Likley IN
Marquise Brown (Foot) — Likely IN
Ronald Moore (hamstring) — Likely IN
Michael Gallup (knee) — Likely IN
Mecole Hardman (heel) — Likely IN
Velus Jones (Hamstring) — Likely IN
Jarvis Landry (Ankle) — Likely IN
Christian Watson (hamstring) — Likely IN
Kyle Phillips (Shoulder) — Questionable
Week 4 Content
Weekend Rankings Update & Injuries
Week 4 DraftKings Picks
Week 4 Best Bets
Week 4 Spread Picks + Cust Corner
QB
Jameis Winston (Back) — OUT
Mac Jones (Ankle) — OUT
Zach Wilson (Knee) — IN
Tua Tagovailoa (back/ankle) — Left Game; OUT Indefinitely
TE
Foster Moreau (Knee) — OUT
Brevin Jordan (Ankle) — OUT
Ryan Griffin (Achilles) — Likely OUT
TJ Hockenson (foot) — IN
Taysom Hill (Ribs) — Likely IN
Dawson Knox (Back) — Likely IN
Dalton Schultz (Knee) — Questionable for Week 4
WEEK 4 PICKS
Big John has the Week 4 DFS Picks, Props & JOCK MKT Plays for you in a nice, quick fashion.
WATCH: NFL Week 4 DFS Picks + Bets + JOCK MKT Values
BTW, if you’re on the fence about testing out JOCK MKT for yourself, email thepatmayoexperience@gmail.com and I may have some free cash for ya to sign up with. Gotta have Pay Pal tho. Or, get yourself a nice BONUS on first deposit…
Get a deposit match up to $100 with first deposit at JOCK MKT with Code “MMN”
GALAXY BRAIN: Fading The Field
“It’s better to be lucky than good.” That’s said because most of us aren’t good, and luck is essentially our only out. Once you realize that and lean into it, building DK lineups becomes much easier.
Checking out the optimal rates at Run The Sims is pretty good place to start…
NFL TOOLS: 10% OFF OPTIMIZER, CUSTOM PROJECTIONS, LINEUP GENERATOR on Weekly, Monthly or Annual Plan
The main slate this week has a pretty clear build. The names are going vary, but I have a hard time thinking that this isn’t going to the basic structure for a high percentage of lineups:
Expensive QB: Josh Allen ($8,400), Lamar Jackson ($8,300), Jalen Hurts ($8,200)
They all come with pass catcher north of $7,000
Middle tier RBs: Jamaal Williams ($6,100), Khalil Herbert ($5,700), Dameon Pierce ($5,600)
Cheap D/ST: you can face The GOOF or Trubisky at a bottom-7 price on this main slate.
Let’s assume all of that. That leaves about $5,000 on the table to fill 3 pass catcher spots and flex. Go a few steps further. Romeo Doubs is going to be popular in this spot, as are cheap tight ends and middling receivers in these high scoring games (DeVonta Smith and Rashod Bateman).
Moral of the story: We may not know the exact roster construction of the field, but we have a good idea of what the resource allocation looks like.
WATCH: Week 4 DraftKings Picks & Pivot Builds
So how do we zig when everyone is zagging? Turn that strategy approximately 137-degrees; 180, that’s too far. Just go hard on a different game. Really hard. For me, that’s Seahawks/Lions. You could get 5 players in this game (Goff-Reynolds-Hockenson, Lockett-Metcalf) and have $5,675 left per player. This allows you to do a few things. Pay up to be different at RB and potentially go with a DST in one of those high scoring games to really leverage the field (Bills if I had to pick, high pressure without blitzing.)
Notes
Lockett/Metcalf combine for an over 50% target share through 3 weeks and this game opened with a 50-point total
TD or 7 targets in every game for Hockenson
Najee Harris won’t be a favorite often and he should come in at a low ownership
Is it comfortable? Not even close. But everyone seeks comfort. You know what not everyone gets? Those big cartoon checks and that is what we are aiming for here!
If you want to know more about how the Run The Sims projections get calculated, here’s how Justin Freeman is adapting them with the new information we’ve gathered from the first three weeks. The sims are only as good as the inputs.
BETTING INSIGHT
Now is the time to take ‘dogs in low scoring games. Since 2018, underdogs cover at a 57.3% rate in the first two months of the season and the over/under is shy of 45. Once we get past Halloween, you lose that edge (post-October: 50.7%)
- Saints vs Vikings (London)
- Texans vs FeinBolts
- Commanders at Cowboys
- Jets at Steelers
- Bears at Giants
- Titans at Colts
- Cardinals at Panthers
- Patriots at Packers
- Rams at 49ers
Since 2018, road teams cover 58.6% of the time when they are an underdog by less than a field goal.
- Bears (+2.5) at Giants
- Cardinals (+1.5) at Panthers
- Broncos (+2.5) at Raiders*
- Chiefs (+1) at Bucs
- Rams (+1.5) at 49ers*
*Not buying this trend? Then you like the home team and there are numbers to help your payout in those spots. If you want to galaxy brain a SGP, when a home team covers in those spots (favored by less than a FG) when playing in division, unders have come through 66.7% of the time
(Notice … there are three games that make both of those lists. Interesting)
WATCH: Week 4 Best Bets
Tambo’s Tidbits
And don’t forget to follow Tambo on Twitter to get his Tidbits directly every saturday…
Week 4 PROPS
After cranking out some winners Monday night on Prize Picks, lets get back to it for Week 4 with the gut play and the stats play
WATCH: Week 4 Props & Projections
For the gut play, I’m satisfied to see the stats actually agree with me on this one, because it just felt off. I haven’t seen a Henry rushing prop this low in about 3 years, so time to jump back on the OVER 73.5. He’s hit this number seven of the eight time against Indy, and realistically only needs to average 3.5 ypc if you expect him in the 20+ carries range. Then I’ll bring it back with Michael Pittman OVER 65.5 rec yards. I have him projected for the second most receiving yards on the main slate on Sunday (88 yards).
Use code “MMN” at Prize Picks for a deposit match up to $100
For the Stats play, RTS made mince meat of Prize Picks last week, nailing eight of the Top 9 plays per the percentages. Even bailed me out of a losing week. Always a bonus. So, let trust the sims again and just blindly tail the Top 2 plays. You could even throw in the Mattison one as a third as it correlates with the Cook prop if you wanna boost that up to 5x. Do I trust the Zach Wilson one? Fuck no. Same thing I said about CPATT last week too however. And he smashed.
NFL TOOLS: 10% OFF OPTIMIZER, CUSTOM PROJECTIONS, LINEUP GENERATOR on Weekly, Monthly or Annual Plan
— PM