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Week NFL 3 Injury List, Betting Notes, Cheatsheets
DST Sack Props!
Hey gang, appreciate the well wishes you sent toward me, Tambo, Paul, and Cust over the past few days as we strapped in for Hurricane Fiona. Happy to report all is good with us, outside of having no power. At this point we can’t guarantee the wildly popular SNL PME show Sunday night, but if we can regain power (or a big enough generator) we’ll be there. I was able to get a show out today, but it’s just a screen share instead of me on video which, many are saying, is preferable.
We’ve partnered with JOCK MKT for football season, and so far BIG JOHN Laghezza has been plucking the values from the high and low end. If you haven’t played JOCK MKT yet, it’s essentially a stock market for players, so you buy them a one price for the week and see if they turn a profit. It’s legit great if you only want to play for a little bit of cash per week. Find your penny stock players and cash. They’ve been an amazing partner with us at MMN, (and people are WINNING!) so give them a shot. And here’s some bribery…
Big John has the Week 3 JOCK MKT Plays for you, and if you don’t care, he’s also got his favorite Props and Bets of the week too.
Week 3 Injury Cheatsheet
Brandon Bolden (Hamstring) — IN
Dontrell Hilliard (Hamstring) — IN
Christian McCaffrey (Ankle) — IN
Damien Harris (Knee) — Likely IN
Alvin Kamara (ribs) — Likely IN
Leonard Fournette (hamstring) — Likely IN
James Conner (Ankle) — Likely IN
Josh Jacobs (Illness) — Questionable (Could not travel Friday to TEN)
D’Andre Swift (Ankle) — Likely IN
JK Dobbins (knee) — Likely IN
Damien Williams (ribs) — Questionable
Gio Bernard (Ankle) — Questionable
Tyrion Davis-Price (High Ankle) — OUT Multiple Weeks
Week 3 Rankings
Mike Evans — Suspended One Game
Sammy Watkins (hamstring) — OUT
Christian Watson (hamstring) — OUT
Hunter Renfrow (Concussion) — OUT
Chris Godwin (hamstring) — OUT
Wan’Dale Robinson (Knee) — OUT
Van Jefferson (Knee) — OUT; Placed on IR
Jakobi Meyers (knee) — Likely OUT
Kyle Phillips (Shoulder) — Likely OUT
Ronald Moore (hamstring) — Likely OUT
Velus Jones (Hamstring) — Likely OUT
Kadarius Toney (Hamstring) — Likely OUT
Kennan Allen (hamstring) — Game Time Decision
Julio Jones (knee) — Game Time Decision; Leaning OUT
Michael Gallup (knee) — Likely IN; Expect limited snaps
Andy Isabella (Back) — Likely IN
Gabe Davis (Ankle) — Likely IN
Alec Pierce (Concussion) — Likely IN
KJ Hamler (Knee) — Likely IN
Tre’Quon Smith (Hamstring) — Likely IN
Russell Gage (Hamstring) — Likely IN
Michael Pittman (Quad) — Questionable
Jerry Jeudy (Ribs) — Likely IN
Devin Duvernay (Concussion) — Questionable
Trey Lance (Ankle) — Out for The Season
Justin Herbert (Ribs) — Questionable
Brevin Jordan (Ankle) — OUT
Dalton Schultz (Knee) — Likely OUT
George Kittle (groin) — Likely IN
Donald Parham (hamstring) — Likely IN
Isaiah Likely (Groin) — Likely IN
TJ Hockenson (Hip) — Likely IN
Hayden Hurst (Groin) — Questionable
CJ Uzomah (Hamstring) — Questionable
Dawson Knox (foot) — Questionable
Week 3 Bets & Trends
Bills (-5, 52.5) at Dolphins / Eagles (-6, 47.5) at Commanders
Inclined to fade the big road favorites in a divisional game? That was my gut call, but as it turns out, there’s a much stronger edge in considering the total. Since 2010, 56.6% of games pitting a pair of divisional rivals against one another with a spread north of 4 points have gone UNDER the total. For your record keeping purposes, favorites win 80.9% of the time in those games, but with just a 51.3% cover rate. If you think these trends continue, a four-leg SGPx on DraftKings (Bills ML, game under, PHI ML, game under) pays over 6-to-1.
Titans (+2.5) vs Raiders
You’ve heard of a “spot” game. Well this is one. Sorta. Of the four teams that played on Monday night and are thus entering this week on shorter than normal rest, the Titans are the only underdog in Week 3. Well, since 2010, underdogs on a short week in September cover 56.6%. Presumably this is because the grind of the season has yet to really take its toll … teams in such spots once we get past September cover 47.7% of the time, with none of the individual months boasting a winning record.
Colts (+5.5) vs Chiefs / Patriots (+2.5) vs Ravens / Bucs (-1) vs Packers
I’m not going to lie to you. Looking down the schedule, my instinct was the other side of all of these games. I’m not saying I’m pivoting, but there’s an interesting trend to at least consider before putting hard earned dollars on these games. For their careers, Mahomes/Rodgers/Jackson cover 48.7% of September road games. That’s not a bad figure per se, but it’s significantly different than their 57.9% rate in road games played in any other month. My thought: the public is going to hammer the names they know (these are the three most recent MVPs) and drive the spread up more in September. I assume the handle from casual bettors peaks in September and gradually tapers off, so there’s a tax you pay on the household names in September and it seems to provide value on the other side. To be clear, a 48.7% cover rate doesn’t mean I’m automatically going the other direction, I just found it interesting that these three are that much better ATS after the first month of the season.
Giants (-1) vs Cowboys
Not that any PME follower would ever be chasing Sunday losses on Monday night, but in the rare instance that’s the case for you this week, keep in mind that since 2016, home teams cover 55.5% of the time in prime time spots against divisional opponents (they cover 49.1% of the time in all other time slots). Want proof that this trend is a thing? Kirk Cousins. The man is 2-1 ATS at home in primetime against a divisional opponent … he’s 3-5 ATS in primetime games not against a divisional opponent. Yea yea yea, small sample, but if I can make a Cousins primetime stat actually support a positive angle, how do I pass it up?
Cam, Rob, and myself gave out our three favorite of the bunch this week, and this is what we settled on…
WATCH: Week 3 Best Bets
Week 3 Draftkings
Tambo and I broke down the main slate on DraftKings, talking through the chalk builds we expect to see this week, and how to make those unique if you still want to venure down that route. I’m leaning towards Bills & Falcons stacks for my main lineups, but the more I look into it, the more Atlanta’s offensive out put scares me. Mainly because the Seahawks actively try to not run plays. That hurts the other team’s output too.
Like last week, Leonard Fournette is the most featured player across optimal linueps, so I’ll go down with that ship again. After that, it does appear as most lineup will essentially fade the expensive RBs and TEs as they try to cram in the pricey QBs and their receiving weapons. That’s worked the first two weeks and the top RBs have failed, so it’s not surprising seeing this. Maybe not a terrible time to zig back.
The first player under $5,000 is everyone currently fav TE, Kyle Pitts.
And don’t forget to follow Tambo on Twitter to get his Tidbits directly every saturday…
Week 3 PROPS
I’ve been beaten down on Prize Picks the last week. Turns out you don’t always win. Time to get back on track with two options. You know I’m struggling when I’m digging for the biggest loser players on the board…
The sims tell a different story on the matter. Of the four Prize Picks props projected as over 80% winners, I went with the two I like the best and will trust the process..
Also, I went down a rabbit hole on Football Outsides looking at adjusted sack rates for offensive and defensive lines. Where are the biggest mismatches this week based off the two weeks of data we have. Many will say this isn’t a reliable sample, which is definitely true, problem is, in the NFL with so many injuries, roster turnover, scheme changes and different playing conditions, there’s never a sample big enough to realistically draw any firm conclusions. So I’ll ride the hot stats for pass rush vs bad blocking and vice versa and hope it sticks.