Week NFL 2 Injury List, Betting Notes
+ DraftKings, Updated Ranks, Links
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Also, I’m LIVEEEEE at 930am ET Sunday taking your Start/Sit Qs for the week. Set a reminder.
REMINIDER: Week 2 Start/Sit LIVEEEEE at 930am ET
Week 2 Injury Cheatsheet
RB
WATCH: Week 2 Ranks UPDATE & Injury Spin
Alvin Kamara (ribs) — RULED OUT
Mark Ingram (Ankle) — IN for Week 2
JK Dobbins (knee) — RULED OUT
Leonard Fournette (hamstring) — IN
D’Andre Swift (Ankle) — IN; May be limited on snaps
Damien Williams (ribs) — OUT Week 2
Dontrell Hilliard (Hamstring) — OUT for Week 2
Brandon Bolden (hamstring) — Likely OUT Week 2
Ken Walker (hernia) — Likely IN for Week 2
Najee Harris (ankle) — IN Week 2
Elijah Mitchell (knee) — Placed on IR
TY Montgomery — Placed on IR
WR
Julio Jones (knee) — RULED OUT
Michael Pittman (Quad) — OUT for Week 2
Chris Godwin (hamstring) — OUT; Expected OUT multiple Weeks
Wan’Dale Robinson (Knee) — OUT for Week 2
Ronald Moore (hamstring) — OUT for Week 2
Alec Pierce (Concussion) — OUT for Week 2
Van Jefferson (Knee) — OUT for Week 2
Michael Gallup (knee) — OUT for Week 2
KJ Hamler (Knee) — OUT for Week 2
Andy Isabella (Back) — OUT for Week 2
Allen Lazard (ankle) — Likely IN for Week 2
Velus Jones (Hamstring) — Likely OUT for Week 2
Gabe Davis (Ankle) — Added to Injury Report Saturday; Questionable for Week 2 (MNF)
Kyle Philips (Shoulder) — Questionable for Week 2 (MNF)
Kadarius Hunky Toney (hamstring) — Likely in for Week 2
Tre'Quan Smith (groin) — Questionable for Week 2
Mike Evans (calf) — IN Week 2
Russell Gage (hamstring) — IN for Week 2
Breshad Perriman (Knee) — IN for Week 2
Tee Higgins (concussion) — IN for Week 2
Jacobi Meyers (Knee) IN for Week 2
Kennan Allen (hamstring) — Missed Week 2; Questionable for Week 3
UPDATED RANKINGS
RB https://bit.ly/22W2RBRanks
WR https://bit.ly/22W2WRRanks
QB https://bit.ly/22W2QBRanks
TE/DST https://bit.ly/22W2TEDst
QB
Mac Jones (Back) — IN Week 2
Jameis Winston (back) — Likely IN for Week 2
Justin Herbert (Ribs) — Questionable for Week 3; Expected to be OK
TE
George Kittle (groin) — Liikely OUT for Week 2 (Conflictiing reports, Schef says out)
Brevin Jordan (Ankle) — Likely IN for Week 2
CJ Uzomah (hamstring) — Likely OUT Week 2
Here’s what the Sims & Projections look like without Alvin Kamara and Fournette IN…
Here’s what the Sims & Projections look like without Michael Pittman
DFS Values & Penny Stocks
BIG JOHN is BACK with the Top Values for DFS this week, underdog money line plays, and, of course, the JOCK MKT penny stocks.
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WATCH: NFL Week 2 DFS Picks, Values & Bets
Week 2 Bets & Trends
Steelers (+2) vs NE / Saints (+2.5) vs TB / Panthers (+1.5) at NYG
Over the past decade, underdogs cover at a 54.1% clip in games where the over/under is fewer than 45 points and the spread is no more than a FG.
Jets at Browns (over 39.5 points)
Over the past decade, over tickets cash 56.1% of the time when the spread is over a FG and the over/under is no higher than 40 points
It’s OK to like the Packers or 49ers as big divisional game favorites
Over the past decade, divisional games with a spread over the key number of 7 have slightly leaned toward the favorite (50.2% cover rate). The spin in those games … 55.8% go under the total.
Vikings at Eagles (under 50.5 points)
Much gets made of Kirk Cousins in prime time, but he’s 7-6 outright when favored under the bright lights and 6-7 ATS (23-21 when favored in non-prime time games). The true separator? Points, or lack thereof. When favored in primetime, Cousins has seen the under come through in 9 of 13 games (non-prime time favorite spots, overs are 18-7-1).
Fade Free-Money Cust
We parlayed this (literally) into a +900 winner Thursday night, so may as well try a fade again…
CLE (Pick’em): He’s trying to curse his own team. Since 2013, the Browns cover 34% of home games when favored (the rest of the NFL: 47.7%). Over that stretch, the Browns have won 58.3% of games outright when favored at home (the rest of the NFL: 66.3%)
SF (-4): The 49ers are 18-22 outright at home over their past 40 games (5-10 when facing the division). Four of those 18 wins (including one against the Seahawks) have come by fewer than 4 points.
CIN (-2): The Bengals are just 3-3 outright the last 6 times they’ve been favored by 6+ points in a regular season game (lost their only road game as a 6+ point favorite over that stretch)
DEN (-4): 26% of Russell Wilson’s career wins as a double digit favorite have come by fewer than 4 points.
GB (-4): The Packers are just 21-21 ATS over their past 42 division games and 5 of those wins have come by fewer than 4 points (28-14 ATS in their previous 42 divisional games)
I’m not touting the exact play, but if you’re big into curses, this is the ticket as of Friday morning if you take the opposite side of every CUST pick and take the ‘dog moneyline: +111844!
Let’s just say … if that hits, ole’ Pat Mayo might be on a beach somewhere for Week 3.
Week 2 Draftkings
Tambo and I broke down the main slate on DraftKings, talking through the chalk builds we expect to see this week, and how to make those unique if you still want to venure down that route. I particularily liked the Raiders stack with Renfrow and Waller, and just use Kupp instead of Adams in that lineup. While it’s likely not to work, if you get the script where Adams is only marginal, you can still take advantage of the stack with an elite option at WR.
WATCH: Week 2 DraftKings Picks & Strategy
We did both agree that the Top 2 RBs, CMC and JT, are going to be underowned compared to the last week. That’s what happens when the Top WRs smash and the Top RBs aren’t difference makers. That said, Mixon and Uncle Leo are looking pretty juice for that price, here’s how Run The Sims as the Optimal Percentages after running the slate 10,000 times. Remember, you can simulate the slate 10,000 times with you own custom inputs when you. join Run The Sims
NFL TOOLS: 10% OFF OPTIMIZER, PROJECTIONS, LINEUP GENERATOR on Weekly, Monthly or Annual Plan
Beyond Albert O, Jacobi Meyers at. $4,400 is the next player below $5,000 to rank in the Opt. Rate (11.9%). Always best to wait for the final projections Sunday after inactives before fully comitting.
The Tidbits
And don’t forget to follow Tambo on Twitter to get his Tidbits directly every saturday…
CHEATSHEETS
Although Cam’s real GOLD PICK is “Game of Thrones fucking sucks,” we actually did some football breakdowns too,.
WATCH: Week 2 Best Bets: Mineral Edition
Good teams win, great teams cover, and always fade Cust’s prop picks, apparently…
WATCH: Week 2 Spread Picks & Survivor
PROPS
I broke down my favorite Prize Picks & Props for the remainder of Week 2 on the Saturday show. Tambo and I swept the island game Prize Picks plays this week, so hopefully Sunday doesn’t come up busto.
WATCH: Week 2 Prize Picks & Props
I’ve put in two plays (more in the show btw), one is my own play…
Get a deposit match up to $100 with first deposit at PRIZE PICKS with Code “DOP”
The other is the Run The Sims top two plays, which bailed me out last week…
If you didn’t know, there’s an awesome PP projector and value calculator as a part of the RTS sub.
NFL TOOLS: 10% OFF OPTIMIZER, PROJECTIONS, LINEUP GENERATOR on Weekly, Monthly or Annual Plan
Good luck
— PM