Week NFL 1 Injury List, Cheatsheets

DraftKings Plays & Giveaways

Sep 10, 2022

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Week 1 Injury List

Watch: Week 1 Injury Breakdown, Updated Rankings, Props

List will be updated when news breaks, so bookmark the link

Chase Edmonds (Groin) — Off Injury Report; IN

JK Dobbins (Knee) — Questionable; Won’t be at 100% Regardless

Ken Walker (hernia) — Likely OUT (MNF)

James Robinson (Achilles) — Expect to be active; DON’T PLAY

Allen Lazard (Ankle) DNP all Week; Likely OUT

Velus Jones (Hamstring) — DNP all week; Likely OUT

Rondale Moore (hamstring) OUT

Michael Gallup (knee) — OUT; still may avoid PUP

Tre'Quan Smith (groin) — OUT

Chris Godwin (knee) — Expected to play (SNF); may be limited

Drake London (knee) — Game Time Decision; Potential Snap Count

Jacobi Meyers (Knee) Limited Practice; Likely IN

KJ Hamler (knee/hip) — Likely IN (MNF)

Michael Thomas (Hamstring) — Limited Practice; Likely IN

Diontae Johnson (shoulder) — Listed Practice; Likely IN

Kadarius Toney (knee) — “Looks 100%” which is 60% for anyone else. Likely IN

Russell Gage (hamstring) LP; Likely IN

Sterling Shepard (Achilles) Off Injury Report; IN

Jaylen Waddle (quad) — Likely IN

Christian Watson — IN

Jalen Tolbert — May be a healthy Scratch (SNF)

Zach Wilson (knee) — Expected to miss at least first 4 weeks

George Kittle (Groin) — DNP after Monday; Likely OUT

Daniel Parham (Hamstring) — DNP; Likely OUT

Robert Tonyan (knee) — Off Injury Report IN

Logan Thomas (Knee) — Limited Practice; Likely IN but prob limited

Zach Ertz (calf) — Likely IN (4pm); Prob Limited Snap Count

Week 1 Content

Ranks List

RB bit.ly/22W1RBRanks

WR bit.ly/22W1WRRanks

QB bit.ly/22W1QBRanks

TE/DST bit.ly/22W1TEDST

PME Shows

Week 1 DraftKings Picks

Injuries/Props

Best Bets

Spread Picks & Cust Corner

Rankings Debate

DraftKings Main Slate Strategy

GALAXY BRAIN: Popular Doesn’t Mean Wrong

Every year, I get a million questions about DFS questions featuring not one, not two, but three (or more) crazy dart throws. I get the idea. The only way to defeat a large field is to be unique. But you don’t have to zag at every turn and when do you wonder off the beaten path, it doesn’t have to be for a sub-1% guy. Week 1 is a different animal in that the pricing is released well ahead of time and cannot be changed, but the lesson here is for the entire season: “different” and “unreasonable” are two different things.

An example of this? I expect the Chargers stack to be popular. Hell, it might be the most popular stack on the main slate for Week 1. I don’t doubt that people will use the Raiders, the Bengals, the Chiefs and the Eagles,, but if I had to bet on what one stack will lead the way, it’d be Geoff’s Bolts. And you know what? I think that’s right.

They host Vegas. A Raiders team that was the only in the NFL to rank 20th or worst in … opponent pass attempts, opponent average depth of throw and opponent on-target rate. That’s not nothing. What if we moved the goalposts a bit? Three defenses ranked 25th or worse in at least two of those metrics … Raiders, Rams and Seahawks. Well, the only one of those defenses on the main slate is the Raiders. So yea, #ChargerUp.

Whether you want a single or double stack, you’ve got a start to building your lineup. Now let’s look at the leaky defenses against running backs. A season ago, only four defenses ranked below league average in all of the following to opposing running backs: rush attempts, rush TD%, yards before contact per carry and yards after contact per carry. These teams couldn’t get push on the defensive line, couldn’t tackle and were run on often as a result. Seems like a reasonable resume to attack, no?

The Raiders, Chargers, Steelers and Texans were those four teams. You could get cute and throw Austin Ekeler into your Chargers stack. I don’t mind it. Probably more of a play in smaller contests than the lottery’s, but viable. I don’t think I’d be looking to attack the Chargers defense alongside rostering their stack: if the stack goes off like we hope, the Raiders probably aren’t pounding the rock. Jonathan Taylor destroyed the Texans last season and he profiles as a strong play again. Nothing wrong there either, but we can skirt some ownership and save $2,000 by going with the other matchup highlighted here in Joe Mixon (vs PIT). He’s a boring back on a slate with a that is loaded with versatile backs capable of backing the slate, so he is what I mean targeting a reasonable zag. No one is going to argue that he’s a decent play at the very least, but I don’t know if his ownership% will reflect that. This also makes for a nice game theory play: likely anything Mixon gives you is food off the plate of the popular Bengal pass game. Not crazy, but different enough to give your reasonable leverage.

Plenty of teams are going to roster the tippy top of the running back board. Those teams likely don’t land on a Tier 2 back like Mixon. Plenty of people will go with a Bengals stack. They aren’t touching Mixon. Anybody who stacks the Eagles or Raiders is going to have more money to play with than us Charger stackers, so I’d assume they pay up for one of the elite backs and then mine for value. So while Mixon isn’t a creative play, I think he could prove valuable.

Projections, Props & Picks

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LIVE SHOWS

There are 3 LIVE shows the next two days to try out (and set a remind for). Jon Kelly is LIVE at 2pm ET SATURDAY for the revamped UFC 279 picks after the card got completely shaken up Friday afternoon. If you have betting or DFS Qs, get at Jon on the stream

WATCH: UFC 279 LIVE CHAT 2pm ET SATURDAY

Then Sunday morning, The PME will be LIVE starting at 930am ET only taking your Qs. First come, first serve.

WATCH: Week 1 Start/Sit Qs at 930am ET SUNDAY

Then, Sunday evening, following America’s game of the week, I’ll be LIVE with Cust in studio and a guest recapping Week 1. It’s where you can find us every Sunday. Or just catch the recap on your pod feed ready for your Monday commute.

GALAXY BRAIN 2: Pay Down At QB

Jared Goff. Hear me out … because this likely won’t be the last time I use this space to put air in the tires of THE GOOF. First of all, there are a lot of weapons at his disposal (even without Jameson Williams active): he has a trust-worthy option at WR (just ask Tim!), RB and TE. But you knew that. Let’s get into the nitty gritty:

Multiple pass TD in each of his last 4 games as a home ‘dog
PHI ranked 30th in pressure rate when blitzing last season (maybe they shouldn’t do it, right?)
THE GOOF has improved his CMP% when not blitzed every season
PHI was a bottom-10 defense in terms of opponent red zone CMP%

That was an area of struggle for Goff last season, but it traditionally hasn’t been a weakness of his. Forget his peak seasons. Just look back to 2020. He was so good that the Rams wanted to get rid of him … that season, he averaged 1.27 fantasy points per red zone pass. For reference, Patrick Mahomes was just ahead of him (1.31) and Justin Herbert just behind him (1.25)

Sold yet? There are a few avenues to go with the stack. His three primary targets are all priced at a reasonable level and given the money you’re saving at QB, you can go there. But if you’re trying to cash big, you might have to get creative. A few notes to consider …

Since 2019, wide receivers have caught 38% of end zone targets
DJ Chark’s rate over that stretch: 50%
Secondary options vs PHI last season
Ced Wilson and Dalton Schultz were responsible for the two biggest Cowboy games vs PHI (not Amari Cooper)
Antonio Brown led TB pass catchers (not Mike Evans)
Foster Moreau led LV (not Hunter Renfrow)
DEN TEs out-scored Jeudy and Sutton by 5.6 points

One step further. The bring back. AJ Brown may have his ups and downs this season, but I’m guessing the Eagles want to feature him from the get go. Last season, eight times did a WR see at least nine targets against the Lions. They averaged … 8.6 catches for 118.9 yards and scored 8 times.

In this GPP build, you could get a little extra spicy and add D’Andre Swift to your stack. His role in the pass game was nothing short of special in the first three months last season and he’s once again healthy. Do that, chuck in a cheap DST along with a chalk salary saver like Wan’Dale Robinson ($3,000 at TEN) and you’ve got roughly $7,000 left per player to fill your empty slots (RB, TE, FLEX). I can’t complete that lineup for you, but you have the space to roster an elite RB and an elite TE along with a very strong flex option. Wide range of outcomes? Of course, you just put four guys from the Lions/Eagles game in there, but you’ve got justifiable correlation that is almost certainly to be unique.

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WATCH: Week 1 JOCK MKT PICKS & PLAYER PROPS

If you prefer the audio versions, John’s breakdowns will be up on the DFS MIX audio feeds

There’s more in the show, but here' are his projection value to try and exploit…

Week 1 DraftKings

Tambo and I talked through the entire slate here…

WATCH: Week 1 DraftKings Picks & Ownership

and I came away with a solid core of players I like. I’m not max entering anything this week but am playing a few 20-Max tourneys on DraftKings. These were my most common players. (I also played some Tua/Hill/Waddle triple stacks mixing these guys in…

QB

Lamar Jackson $7,300

Joe Burrow $6,400

Kirk Cousins $6,100

RB

Christian McCaffrey $8,500

Alvin Kamara $7,600

Antonio Gibson $5,800

Elijah Mitchell $5,400

Build Lineups Quick & Easy with the Custom Optimizer

WR

Justin Jefferson $7,800

Tee Higgins. $6,100

Michael Pittman $5,500

A.J. Green $4,600

Randall Cobb $3,400

TE

Kyle Pitts $5,700

Irv Smith Jr. $3,400

D/ST

Dolphins $2,600

Bears $2,200

Good Luck

— PM