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Week NFL 1 Injury List, Cheatsheets
DraftKings Plays & Giveaways
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Week 1 Injury List
List will be updated when news breaks, so bookmark the link
Chase Edmonds (Groin) — Off Injury Report; IN
JK Dobbins (Knee) — Questionable; Won’t be at 100% Regardless
Ken Walker (hernia) — Likely OUT (MNF)
James Robinson (Achilles) — Expect to be active; DON’T PLAY
Allen Lazard (Ankle) DNP all Week; Likely OUT
Velus Jones (Hamstring) — DNP all week; Likely OUT
Rondale Moore (hamstring) OUT
Michael Gallup (knee) — OUT; still may avoid PUP
Tre'Quan Smith (groin) — OUT
Chris Godwin (knee) — Expected to play (SNF); may be limited
Drake London (knee) — Game Time Decision; Potential Snap Count
Jacobi Meyers (Knee) Limited Practice; Likely IN
KJ Hamler (knee/hip) — Likely IN (MNF)
Michael Thomas (Hamstring) — Limited Practice; Likely IN
Diontae Johnson (shoulder) — Listed Practice; Likely IN
Kadarius Toney (knee) — “Looks 100%” which is 60% for anyone else. Likely IN
Russell Gage (hamstring) LP; Likely IN
Sterling Shepard (Achilles) Off Injury Report; IN
Jaylen Waddle (quad) — Likely IN
Christian Watson — IN
Jalen Tolbert — May be a healthy Scratch (SNF)
Zach Wilson (knee) — Expected to miss at least first 4 weeks
George Kittle (Groin) — DNP after Monday; Likely OUT
Daniel Parham (Hamstring) — DNP; Likely OUT
Robert Tonyan (knee) — Off Injury Report IN
Logan Thomas (Knee) — Limited Practice; Likely IN but prob limited
Zach Ertz (calf) — Likely IN (4pm); Prob Limited Snap Count
Week 1 Content
GALAXY BRAIN: Popular Doesn’t Mean Wrong
Every year, I get a million questions about DFS questions featuring not one, not two, but three (or more) crazy dart throws. I get the idea. The only way to defeat a large field is to be unique. But you don’t have to zag at every turn and when do you wonder off the beaten path, it doesn’t have to be for a sub-1% guy. Week 1 is a different animal in that the pricing is released well ahead of time and cannot be changed, but the lesson here is for the entire season: “different” and “unreasonable” are two different things.
An example of this? I expect the Chargers stack to be popular. Hell, it might be the most popular stack on the main slate for Week 1. I don’t doubt that people will use the Raiders, the Bengals, the Chiefs and the Eagles,, but if I had to bet on what one stack will lead the way, it’d be Geoff’s Bolts. And you know what? I think that’s right.
They host Vegas. A Raiders team that was the only in the NFL to rank 20th or worst in … opponent pass attempts, opponent average depth of throw and opponent on-target rate. That’s not nothing. What if we moved the goalposts a bit? Three defenses ranked 25th or worse in at least two of those metrics … Raiders, Rams and Seahawks. Well, the only one of those defenses on the main slate is the Raiders. So yea, #ChargerUp.
Whether you want a single or double stack, you’ve got a start to building your lineup. Now let’s look at the leaky defenses against running backs. A season ago, only four defenses ranked below league average in all of the following to opposing running backs: rush attempts, rush TD%, yards before contact per carry and yards after contact per carry. These teams couldn’t get push on the defensive line, couldn’t tackle and were run on often as a result. Seems like a reasonable resume to attack, no?
The Raiders, Chargers, Steelers and Texans were those four teams. You could get cute and throw Austin Ekeler into your Chargers stack. I don’t mind it. Probably more of a play in smaller contests than the lottery’s, but viable. I don’t think I’d be looking to attack the Chargers defense alongside rostering their stack: if the stack goes off like we hope, the Raiders probably aren’t pounding the rock. Jonathan Taylor destroyed the Texans last season and he profiles as a strong play again. Nothing wrong there either, but we can skirt some ownership and save $2,000 by going with the other matchup highlighted here in Joe Mixon (vs PIT). He’s a boring back on a slate with a that is loaded with versatile backs capable of backing the slate, so he is what I mean targeting a reasonable zag. No one is going to argue that he’s a decent play at the very least, but I don’t know if his ownership% will reflect that. This also makes for a nice game theory play: likely anything Mixon gives you is food off the plate of the popular Bengal pass game. Not crazy, but different enough to give your reasonable leverage.
Plenty of teams are going to roster the tippy top of the running back board. Those teams likely don’t land on a Tier 2 back like Mixon. Plenty of people will go with a Bengals stack. They aren’t touching Mixon. Anybody who stacks the Eagles or Raiders is going to have more money to play with than us Charger stackers, so I’d assume they pay up for one of the elite backs and then mine for value. So while Mixon isn’t a creative play, I think he could prove valuable.
Projections, Props & Picks
Using Run The Sims yet? No? Figure that out. Get 10% off the weekly, monthly, or annual membership with code “MAYO”. Try out the weekly if you’re on the fence and see if it’s for you.
Yes, you can customize your projections, and use the leverage and ownership to generate as many DFS linueps as you like. But the NEW Props tool is pretty legit. Complete with EV calculator for Prize Picks.
And yes, I did play this exact entry.
If you’ve ever been on the fence about getting in on Prize Picks, they’ve sweatened the deal this week with a FREE SQUARE!!!!! They set Brady’s over/under for SNF at 0.5 Passing yards. I suggest the over. Just a hunch. You can only win up to $250 with the Brady FREE SQUARE, so I just did a 5 Play, $25 shot to try and maximize it, but if you wanted to build bankroll, you’d use code “MMN” at Prize Picks to get that $100 deposit match, then roll out this entry.
There are 3 LIVE shows the next two days to try out (and set a remind for). Jon Kelly is LIVE at 2pm ET SATURDAY for the revamped UFC 279 picks after the card got completely shaken up Friday afternoon. If you have betting or DFS Qs, get at Jon on the stream
Then Sunday morning, The PME will be LIVE starting at 930am ET only taking your Qs. First come, first serve.
Then, Sunday evening, following America’s game of the week, I’ll be LIVE with Cust in studio and a guest recapping Week 1. It’s where you can find us every Sunday. Or just catch the recap on your pod feed ready for your Monday commute.
GALAXY BRAIN 2: Pay Down At QB
Jared Goff. Hear me out … because this likely won’t be the last time I use this space to put air in the tires of THE GOOF. First of all, there are a lot of weapons at his disposal (even without Jameson Williams active): he has a trust-worthy option at WR (just ask Tim!), RB and TE. But you knew that. Let’s get into the nitty gritty:
Multiple pass TD in each of his last 4 games as a home ‘dog
PHI ranked 30th in pressure rate when blitzing last season (maybe they shouldn’t do it, right?)
THE GOOF has improved his CMP% when not blitzed every season
PHI was a bottom-10 defense in terms of opponent red zone CMP%
That was an area of struggle for Goff last season, but it traditionally hasn’t been a weakness of his. Forget his peak seasons. Just look back to 2020. He was so good that the Rams wanted to get rid of him … that season, he averaged 1.27 fantasy points per red zone pass. For reference, Patrick Mahomes was just ahead of him (1.31) and Justin Herbert just behind him (1.25)
Sold yet? There are a few avenues to go with the stack. His three primary targets are all priced at a reasonable level and given the money you’re saving at QB, you can go there. But if you’re trying to cash big, you might have to get creative. A few notes to consider …
Since 2019, wide receivers have caught 38% of end zone targets
DJ Chark’s rate over that stretch: 50%
Secondary options vs PHI last season
Ced Wilson and Dalton Schultz were responsible for the two biggest Cowboy games vs PHI (not Amari Cooper)
Antonio Brown led TB pass catchers (not Mike Evans)
Foster Moreau led LV (not Hunter Renfrow)
DEN TEs out-scored Jeudy and Sutton by 5.6 points
One step further. The bring back. AJ Brown may have his ups and downs this season, but I’m guessing the Eagles want to feature him from the get go. Last season, eight times did a WR see at least nine targets against the Lions. They averaged … 8.6 catches for 118.9 yards and scored 8 times.
In this GPP build, you could get a little extra spicy and add D’Andre Swift to your stack. His role in the pass game was nothing short of special in the first three months last season and he’s once again healthy. Do that, chuck in a cheap DST along with a chalk salary saver like Wan’Dale Robinson ($3,000 at TEN) and you’ve got roughly $7,000 left per player to fill your empty slots (RB, TE, FLEX). I can’t complete that lineup for you, but you have the space to roster an elite RB and an elite TE along with a very strong flex option. Wide range of outcomes? Of course, you just put four guys from the Lions/Eagles game in there, but you’ve got justifiable correlation that is almost certainly to be unique.
If you’re looking for way to monitize your NFL knowledge, Jock MKT may actually be the best way. If you can identify value, you can make a TONNNNNNN of cash.
Our guy John Laghazza was a former stock trade, and now just deals with sports betting markets, he found Jock MKT and just keeps printing.
If you prefer the audio versions, John’s breakdowns will be up on the DFS MIX audio feeds
There’s more in the show, but here' are his projection value to try and exploit…
Week 1 DraftKings
Tambo and I talked through the entire slate here…
and I came away with a solid core of players I like. I’m not max entering anything this week but am playing a few 20-Max tourneys on DraftKings. These were my most common players. (I also played some Tua/Hill/Waddle triple stacks mixing these guys in…
Lamar Jackson $7,300
Joe Burrow $6,400
Kirk Cousins $6,100
Christian McCaffrey $8,500
Alvin Kamara $7,600
Antonio Gibson $5,800
Elijah Mitchell $5,400
Justin Jefferson $7,800
Tee Higgins. $6,100
Michael Pittman $5,500
A.J. Green $4,600
Randall Cobb $3,400
Kyle Pitts $5,700
Irv Smith Jr. $3,400