Week 9 WEEKEND UPDATE - Injuries, Top Props, DraftKings Notes
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Week 9 Injuries
RB
Dameon Pierce (ankle) — OUT
Emari Demercado (toe) — OUT
Clyde Edwards-Helaire — OUT
David Montgomery (Ribs) — On Bye
WR
Robert Woods (Foot) — OUT
Drake London (Groin) — OUT
DeVante Parker (Head) — OUT
Curtis Samuel (Foot) — OUT
Laviska Shenault Jr. (Ankle) — OUT
Michael Wilson (shoulder) — Expected OUT
Josh Palmer (Knee) — Expected OUT
DJ Chark (elbow) — Expected IN
Puka Nacua (knee) — Expected IN
Josh Downs (knee) — Expected IN
Zay Jones (knee) — On Bye
Deebo Samuel (Shoulder) — On Bye
WEEK 9 RANKINGS
RB https://bit.ly/23W9RBRankings
WR https://bit.ly/23W9WRRANKINGS
QB https://bit.ly/23W9QBRankings
TE/DST https://bit.ly/23W9TEDSTRanks
TE
Darren Waller (Hamstring) — OUT
Brevin Jordan (foot) — OUT
Gerald Everett (Quad) — Expected IN
Kylen Granson (concussion) — Questionable
QB
Deshaun Watson (Shoulder) — WILL START
Daniel Jones (Neck) — WILL START
Matt Stafford (Thumb) — Expected OUT; Breet Rypien Starting
Desmond Ridder (Head) — Benched; Taylor Heinicke Starting
Kyler Murray — OUT; Clayton Tune Expected to Start Week 9
Justin Fields (Thumb) — Bagent Expected to Start Week 9
James Garoppolo — Benched; AOC Starting
Week 9 Props
As I wrote up Wednesday, nothing on the Prop Sniper looked too appealing, and it wasn’t. Games with new and/or returning QBs compound the randomness of already football. Especially when one of those QBs may be playing through a known injury. Problem is, you’re never going to know how to weight those things, so I usually abstain unless something really stills out.
Game goes for Sunday. The Prop Sniper loves Hurts over rushing yards. And who wouldn’t with the total dropping below 30 yards in the first time in forever. Problem is, based on his general gimpyness the past two weeks, he’s either going to smash that number or come no where near it. He’s didn’t take off at all vs WAS a week ago. Maybe the week of rest did him good; maybe he’s still limited in that area, or merely doesn’t want to put himself at risk of further injury when he knows he’s a fine in the pocket. It may be one of the best spots to attack, but, you see, I’m a coward.
Instead I’ll be watching NO/CHI through my fingers like it’s a horror flick, just praying Tyson Bagent doesn’t see daylight at any point. His under (now) 13.5 rushing yards remains my favorite of the props in Week 9. He beat this number in his first start vs LV, but doesn’t have a rush for over 4 yards in any other game. It’s funny, because LAC and LV share something in common with NO: All three are bottom 10 in the league in percentage of drop backs under pressure; difference his, Vegas has given up the second most rushing yards in football’s they cannot tackle; while LAC and NO are in the bottom half. Again, just hope Bagent doesn’t see day light on a broken play.
SUB TO RUN THE SIMS PROP TOOLS PACKAGE
(Code “MAYO” gets you 10% discount btw)
Hopefully, it’s the prop so nice it pays twice!
Now, after that talk about not betting to bet, I just can’t help myself on International games. No clue why, either. So I’ve cooked up my fav solo props and same game parlays. My two personal favs are Justin Watson o17.5 receiving yards (somethings he has at least 42 receiving yards in every game he’s finished but one this season). Just to make it more of a sweat on yourself, you can hit Watson at +145 for over 25 receiving yards instead if that extra squeeze. In those 5 games where he’s gone over his number, Watson’s shorest, longest reception was 26 yards. +475 for over 50 yards if you’re feeling up to it.
Also, MVS u16.5. Mainly because he sucks, but also because he lines up on the left side of the KC offense more than any other receiver, and, if we learned anything form the Pats last week, they don’t even want to challenge Ramsey now that he’s back if they don’t have to. It’s the worst kind of sweat knowing one catch may sink you, but under low receiving props have been our jam this season.
Here are some foolish SGPs for the Frankfurt game. Have some fun with them.
And now, for the ultimate degen wagers. (Note: I cashed one these out since I was supposed to “first” and “Last;” not two “first”)
Of Note: When you want to give back a bunch of your money to the sportsbooks, to quote Montell Jordan, “this is how you do it.”
Week 9 DFS NOTES
First off, if you missed Tambo and I building lineups and talking through the slate Friday, what are you even doing with your life? Change that NOW. Mainly because Tambo mentioned something about giving away $30,000 potentially.
WATCH: Week 9 DraftKings Picks & Lineups
If you didn’t know, Tambo and I are trying to get to the finals of the DraftKings King of the Beach tournament this week: I have one entry, Tambo has three. Keep your fingers crossed for me, as I’d like a trip to Miami and a chance to win $300K, but for obvious giveaway reasons, I’m sure you’ll probably be rooting for Tambo!
It’s tough getting a sense of exact how much the Dameon Pierce being inactive news affects the ownership at RB on the main slate, because something isn’t quite adding up. Yes, Kamara is tracking to be the highest owned, then Jacobs, but then it’s probably going to be a split of Hubbard and Singletary. As of this writing, Hubbard at $5K is tracking much higher than Singletary at $4.3K, but I can see that gap closing up until kickoff as people keep trying to jam in as many high priced players as possible.
Additionally, it’s officially Super Demario Douglas week. He may be the highest owned receiver on the slate after AJB and CeeDee, and there’s a chance he passes them being only $4K.
STACK
C.J. Stroud - Nico Collins - Tank Dell
The Texans aren't going to be given much of a look this week after their dud against the Panthers (4.1 yards per play, as many penalties as first downs gained through the air) and that gives us leverage potential. But is it smart leverage?
In a weatherproof game, we get two of the top 6 offenses in terms of percentage of offensive yards that come through the air. Of the other four ... two have backup QBs starting this week (MIN and LV), one is off the main slate (KC) and the other is in basically an unstackable, let alone onslaught, spot (WAS at NE)
Even better? These are two of the nine defenses allowing over 70% of opponent yardage to come via the pass. Now for the matchup and target distribution.
WR1 and WR2 vs TB since the Week 5 bye ...
Amon-Ra St. Brown/Jameson Williams: 14 catches for 177 yards and 2 TD (43.9% target share)
Drake London/Kyle Pitts: 43.5% target share
Stefon Diggs/Gabe Davis: 18 catches for 157 yards and 1 TD (61.5% target share)
We've seen proof of concept from this Texans offense. Weeks 1-4:
Collins and Dell: 39.4% target share and 57.3% share of the receiving yards
Remove all Robert Woods production from those games (out this week and potentially another)
Collins and Dell: 50.5% target share and 68.1% share of receiving yards
GAME OVERLOAD
Mike Evans - Chris Godwin
- 47% combined target share, 59.9% receiving yardage share
- Between them, over 2 20+ yard catches per game (15 in 7 games)
- Why would TB run?
White: 3.3 YPC without a carry gaining more than 15 yards (BUT: 97% catch rate)
UNIQUE STACK
Kareem Hunt - CLE DST
- 3-man committee won't be heavily targeted
-Jerome Ford looms (ankle sprain, threat to aggravate or be limited)
-Hunt: 3 games with 10+ carries this season, TD in all 3)
-Hunt: 3+ yards on 71.4% of carries last week
-CLE: 5th in pressure rate, 2nd in QB contact rate
-AZ: Clayton Tune (41 collegiate interceptions) and Emari Demarcado (yet to have a 20-yard touch)
ONE OFF PIECES
Chuba Hubbard
-17-2 touch edge over Miles Sanders last week (first week with Thomas Brown calling plays)
Cooper Kupp (ownership)
- Priced between AJ Brown (chalk spot in Hurts stacks) and CeeDee Lamb (coming off breaking the slate)
- Stafford injury should scare people off
- GB: 28th in defensive DVOA
- GB: 4 game losing streak, the most productive WR on those four opponents all scored (St. Brown, Addison, Meyers, Sutton)
Logan Thomas
- TD or 6+ targets in 5 of 7 games. Cheaper piece to pivot or pair off Douglas chalk.
— PM