Week 9 Trends, Injuries, Cheatsheets + Projections
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Week 9 Injuries
RB
Dameon Pierce (ankle) — OUT
David Montgomery (Ribs) — On Bye
WR
Robert Woods (Foot) — OUT
Kendrick Bourne (Knee) — OUT for Season
Drake London (Groin) — OUT
DeVante Parker (Head) — Questionable
Curtis Samuel (Foot) — OUT
Laviska Shenault Jr. (Ankle) — Questionable
Justyn Ross (Suspension) — Questionable
Zay Jones (knee) — On Bye
Deebo Samuel (Shoulder) — On Bye
WEEK 9 RANKINGS
RB https://bit.ly/23W9RBRankings
WR https://bit.ly/23W9WRRANKINGS
QB https://bit.ly/23W9QBRankings
TE/DST https://bit.ly/23W9TEDSTRanks
TE
Darren Waller (Hamstring) — OUT
Brevin Jordan (foot) — Questionable
Kylen Granson (concussion) — Questionable
Gerald Everett (Quad) — Questionable
Greg Dulcich (hamstring) — Placed on IR
Zach Ertz (Quad) — Placed on IR
Pat Freiermuth (Hamstring) — Placed on IR
Dawson Knox (Wrist) — Placed on IR
QB
Kirk Cousins (Achilles) — OUT For Season
Matt Stafford (Thumb) — Questionable
Daniel Jones (Neck) — Expected to Start Week 9
Tyrod Taylor (Ribs) — Daniel Jones Starting to Start Week 9
Desmond Ridder (Head) — Taylor Heinicke Starting
Kyler Murray — Clayton Tune Expected to Start Week 9
Deshaun Watson (Shoulder) — WILL START
Justin Fields (Thumb) — Bagent Expected to Start Week 9
Ryan Tannehill (Ankle) — OUT; Will Levis STARTING
James Garoppolo — Benched; AOC Starting
Week 9 PROPS
Jaylen Warren is popping a bit for TNF in the prop sniper, but the Run The Sims Simulations think the number for Tyson Bagent rushing yards at open is much like the rent, it’s too damn high. It’s already dropped a yard from open in a lot of places, and can see it being in the 7.5 range come Sunday if it still exists.
SUB TO RUN THE SIMS PROP TOOLS PACKAGE
(Code “MAYO” gets you 10% discount btw)
World Wide Technology Championship Bets
Hossler 25/1
Bhatia 35/1
Champ 50/1
Kraft 200/1 (With 5 Places)
Beau Hossler — I can’t believe I’m betting Hossler 25/1. But where we are.
Akshay Bhatia — Destined to be a popular pick this week, while I should be worried about that, and his downturn in iron play, it’s tough not backing him on a Paspalum resort course. Between Mexico and the Islands a year ago, Bhatia went T4/T24/T2, and notched his only KFT win in 2022 on Paspalum in the Bahamas. If we can get a glimpse of his regular ball striking coupled with his spike in putting on these slower surfaces, maybe he can get himself into the Masters with a win in Cabo.
Cameron Champ — Before hitting the skids in Japan (T59), Champ had been flashing some solid all around play in the Swing. He followed up a T9 in Jackson with a T19 against a stronger field in Vegas. That’s about as consistent as you’ll get from Champ. At a course which has 60-yard wide fairways, if Champ can match his putter to his driver, he’s live to reel off a third PGA win. And it’s possible, in his last eight rounds on paspalum, he’s gained over a stroke on the green in six of them.
Kelly Kraft — Kraft is looking like a new man since the start of the swing season. After a single Top 20 from September to September last season (T16 at Corales on Paspalum btw), he’s made all three cuts to start this season, never finishing worse than T25. Always an excellent putter, it’s his approach play which has valued him up leaderboards lately; gaining over 6.3 strokes on approach in each of his past two starts. And of his 14 career Top 15s on TOUR, six have come on Paspalum resort courses.
If you’re looking for a DraftKings breakdown Degnerate75 filled in for Kenny Kim with Tambo on FGD this week
WATCH: WORLD WIDE TECHNOLOGY CHAMPIONSHIP DraftKings Plays
CHEATSHEETS
We broke up the Week 9 shows into TWO PARTS this week. Which means, TWO CUST CORNERS!!!!! Geoff earned some votes in the MOST INSANE race in Part 1 only to give all of them back and more in Part 2.
WATCH: Week 9 Spread Picks Part 1 + Cust Corner
WATCH: Week 9 Spread Picks Part 2 + Cust Corner
Mayo, Rob Pizzola, and Cam Stewart give their 2023 NFL Week 9 Best Bets with their Gold, Silver and Bronze Selections, while Cam and Rob bitch like old men about today’s youth…
WATCH: NFL Week 9 Best Bets + Teaser
Week 9 Trends
Six straight Steeler games against bottom-10 pass defenses have gone under the total.
Miami is 12-7 ATS (13-6 outright) following an outright win since the beginning of 2021.
The Falcons are just 6-14 ATS (30% hit rate) at home since the beginning of 2021
Since 2021, overs are 10-5 when the Cardinals play a top-10 defense.
At 11-6, the Rams are the third best ATS team in the NFL following an outright loss since the beginning of 2021.
Under tickets have cashed in 10 of Washington's past 14 games against bottom-10 offenses. New England has failed to cover seven of their past 10 home games.
New Orleans allows the third fewest yards per pass and, since the beginning of 2021, Chicago is a league-worst 2-10 ATS against top-10 pass defenses.
Since 2021, unders are 9-5 when the Seahawks play a top-10 defense and 13-8 when they are getting points. The Ravens are just 3-7-1 ATS at home since the beginning of last season.
No team is worse ATS after a loss since 2021 than the Bucs (4-9, they lost in Buffalo to kick off Week 8).
The Colts are 1-3 ATS since 2021 when favored on the road and under tickets have cashed in all four of those games. The Panthers haven't won in consecutive weeks since Weeks 2-3 of the 2021 season (that streak will be at 772 days when this game kicks off).
No team has been worse outright on the road since the beginning of 2021 than the Giants (4-15-1).
The home team has won eight of the past nine games in this series and five of the past six games have been decided by multiple possessions.
The Bengals are 16-11-2 ATS at home during the Joe Burrow era (59.3% cover rate).
The Chargers are 8-4-1 ATS as a road favorite during the Justin Herbert era. Unders are 10-2 in New York's 12 home games since the beginning of last season.
— PM