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Week 9 Injuries, Updated Rankings, Picks

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Week 9 Injuries, Updated Rankings, Picks

+ Props & DraftKings Chalk Report

Mayo Media
Nov 6, 2021
5
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Week 9 Injuries, Updated Rankings, Picks

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FANTASY PROPS BONUS!!!!

You can still take advantage of the MMN props contest BONUS by simply making a 5-pick entry (NO MNF PLAYERS) for $7.11 on Prize Picks. That amount qualifies it for the contest. A bonus $50 given to anyone who plays an entry for $7.11 and gets all five picks correct. You’d get paid 10x for winning anyway, then another $50 bonus because you played an entry of $7.11. Seems like a good way to get 17x your money for a low investment. Perfect for anyone trying to build a bank roll who doesn’t want to wager much money.

And if you use code “MMNNFL” you’ll get ANOTHER $25 if you play a SNF entry.

Deposit at Prize Picks using code “MMNNFL” and get up to a $100 deposit bonus

I’m going with this as my 2 Picks POWER PLAY for 3x my $$$, and these two will be in my 7/11 contest entry too.

For the SNF football picks, wait closer to kickoff and they’ll release more options for the lesser players in the game. They’ll eventually release a line on Jeremy McNichols reception total and you’ll probably want to take the over if it’s set at 3.5 or lower. I’d probably play the over 4.5 too just cased on how I expect this game to go.

Week 9 Injury Report

Last Updated: Sunday Morning
Next Update: 1135am ET

WATCH: Week 9 Injury + Ranks Breakdown

Running Back

  • David Montgomery (knee) May Play on MNF

  • Elijah Mitchell (ribs) IN

  • Adrian Peterson SIGNED BY TITANS; IN

  • Christian McCaffrey (Hamstring) Activated from IR; IN

  • Josh Jacobs (chest) IN

  • James Robinson (Heel) OUT

  • Latavius Murray (ankle) OUT

  • Saquon Barkley (ankle) OUT

  • Damien Williams (knee) Likely OUT

  • Justin Jackson (Quad) OUT

  • Miles Sanders (ankle) Placed on IR

  • Jeff Wilson (knee) Could be Activated from IR Soon

  • Derrick Henry (foot) OUT FOR SEASON

  • Darrynton Evans OUT FOR SEASON

  • Tevin Coleman (hamstring) Missed Week 9

Wide Receiver

  • A.J. Brown (knee) Likely IN

  • Julio Jones (hamstring) IN

  • Rashod Bateman (groin) IN

  • Amari Cooper (hamstring) IN

  • CeeDee Lamb (ankle) IN

  • Michael Gallup (Calf) OUT

  • Deebo Samuel (calf) Likely IN

  • Cole Beasley (ribs) IN

  • Robert Woods (foot) Likely IN

  • AJ Green (COVID LIST) OUT

  • Davante Adams (COVID) IN

  • Marquez Valdez-Scanting (hamstring) Likely IN

  • Allen Lazard (COVID) IN

  • DeAndre Hopkins (Hamstring) Likely OUT

  • Sterling Shepard (hamstring) OUT

  • Dante Pettis OUT

  • Kenny Golladay (knee) IN

  • Jalen Reagor (ankle) IN

  • Donovan Peoples-Jones (groin) IN

  • Will Fuller (finger) OUT

  • Terrance Marshall (concussion) IN

  • Sammy Watkins (hamstring) OUT

  • Calvin Ridley (personal) Placed on Reserve LIST; OUT at Least 3 Weeks

  • Dyami Brown (knee) ON BYE

  • Antonio Brown (ankle) ON BYE

  • Curtis Samuel (groin) ON BYE

  • DeVante Parker (hamstring) OUT; Placed on IR

  • Odell Beckham Jr. (CUT) OUT

  • Henry Ruggs (Legal) CUT BY LV

  • DeSean Jackson CUT BY LAR

  • Michael Thomas (ankle) OUT FOR SEASON

  • TY Hilton (Concussion) Missed Week 9

  • Corey Davis (hip) Likely Missed Week 9

Quarterback

  • Matthew Stafford (back) Likely IN

  • Tua Tagovailoa (Finger) NOT STARTING

  • Kyler Murray (ankle) Likely OUT

  • Sam Darnold (Concussion) Active; Likely Satrting

  • Tyrod Taylor (hamstring) Likely to Start

  • Aaron Rodgers (COVID) OUT

  • Dak Prescott (calf) Likely IN

  • Taysom Hill (head) Likely IN, Will Not Start

  • Mike White (hand) Exited Game Week 9

  • Jameis Winston (knee) OUT FOR SEASON

  • Zach Wilson (knee) Missed Week 9

Tight End

  • George Kittle (calf) Likely IN
    *Expected to play half the snaps

  • Noah Fant (COVID LIST) OUT

  • Blake Jarwin (hip) OUT

  • Eric Ebron (hamstring) Likely OUT

  • Pharaoh Brown (thigh) OUT

  • Darren Waller (Ankle) IN

  • Logan Thomas (hamstring) On IR; Likely back Week 10

  • Dawson Knox (broken hand) OUT; 1-3 weeks Time Table

  • Rob Gronkowski (Back) Exited Game; ON BYE

  • Robert Tonyan (knee) Likely OUT FOR SEASON

WEEK 9 RANKINGS

WATCH: WEEK 9 RANKINGS BREAKDOWN

Last Updated: Sunday Morning
Next Update: 1135am ET

RB https://bit.ly/21W9RBs
WR https://bit.ly/21W9WRs
QB https://bit.ly/21W9QBs
TE/DST https://bit.ly/21W9TEs

WEEK 9 BEST BETS

WATCH: Week 9 NFL BEST BETS

You really should be watching the Friday Best Bets show btw. The NFL advice? It’s OK, I suppose, but Rob and Cam together is just the best

Twitter avatar for @ThePME
Pat Mayo @ThePME
Week 9 Best Bets w/ @robpizzola & @CamStewartLive youtu.be/UouK7RyoQbQ Apple: bit.ly/PMEiTunes Spotify: goo.gl/VboemH Stitcher: goo.gl/Ft3Gmr
11:19 PM ∙ Nov 5, 2021

PLAYER NOTES

JOIN: Week 9 PME RAKE FREE DraftKings Listener’s League

TRIVIA QUESTION: There are two players on the Week 9 main slate with over 20 end zone targets since the beginning of last season. Try to guess them before scrolling to the bottom of this newsletter

Prior to their bye in Week 8, the Ravens had been trending towards the pass heaviest version of this Lamar Jackson offense that we’ve ever seen. And, to my knowledge, over the bye week, the team had more time to get creative with their pass game AND did not add any viable running threat. Lamar Jackson averages over 340 total yards in for his career when throwing over 30 passes.

The Falcons are the second worst defense at creating pressure this season and during his four starts last season, Taysom Hill averaged 4-times more fantasy points per pass attempt when NOT pressured than when pressured.

One of these players got 100% of his team’s first quarter RB touches last week: Jonathan Taylor, Austin Ekeler, Boston Scott, D’Andre Swift. That player? Boston Scott. That’s $5,200 Boston Scott. That’s $5,200 Boston Scott facing a defense that allows 5% more yards per carry than any other defense in the NFL.

Amari Cooper averages 15.8% more air yards per target than CeeDee Lamb. Why do I mention that? Well, the Broncos happen to be giving up a TD on 13.1% of deep passes this season, the second highest rate in the NFL.

GALAXY BRAIN: AARON JONES (at Chiefs)

Given the Aaron Rodgers news this week, no one is excited to play a Packer. And if you are going that direction … it’s probably the pass game where you can get a starting quarterback against a bad defense for the price of a Tre’Quan Smith or Ty’Son Williams. I get the appeal there, but the point being that Aaron Jones could well fall into a weird ownership spot.

That’s where we pounce. Remember, the Packers played on Thursday night last week and the Chiefs played on Monday night.

Since 2017

-          When both teams are on normal rest, they average 4.31 yards per carry and score once every 29.8 carries.

-          When the favorite is on extended rest facing a team on short rest, the numbers fall off a cliff for some reason: 3.98 yards per carry and a TD once every 36.4 carries.

-          When the underdog is on extended rest facing a team on short rest, they average 4.63 yards per carry and a score every 24 carries

Now, those last two stats come with a limited sample, but there might be something to it. Underdogs generally want to control the ball, so maybe they use the extended time to scheme runs while the team on short rest is going to be a bit banged up and more likely to cut corners in prep. At the very least, it’s an interesting thread to pull for a talented player that will likely be unpopular. When looking at running backs on DraftKings, we want scoring equity and pass catching potential. Not breaking news there and we check those boxes here …

Over their past 16 games, the Chiefs allow a touchdown on 76.8% of red zone trips, the second worst rate over that stretch

-          Aaron Jones gets 3 red zone touches for every 1 that AJ Dillon gets (his edge outside of the red zone: 1.6)

Over the past three weeks, Jones has nearly as many targets (20) as Dillon has routes run (21).

Reminder: rostering chalky players and having a chalky lineup are NOT the same thing. This lineup has a handful of chalky pieces, but the two-TE build along with paying a top-5 price for Jones has me thinking this lineup will be different despite of some popular pieces. 

TRIVIA ANSWER: Adam Thielen and Marquise Brown

Week 9 DraftKings Ownership Guesses

WATCH: Week 9 DraftKings Picks

A surprise inactive Sunday could throw some of this out of whack, however which so many question marks happening in the late set of games, chalk appears to be concentrating around the top end value who we know are going to be on the field. All week are smart to use the late swap, but this one seems to be that way in particular.

RB CHALK

Austin Ekeler
Ezekiel Elliot

WR Chalk

Tyreek Hill
Hunter Renfrow
Ja’Marr Chase
Jaylen Waddle

TE Chalk

Albert Okwuegbunam
Dallas Goedert
Darren Waller

DST Chalk

Saints
Bills
Cowboys

QB Chalk

Lamar Jackson
Josh Allen

READ: WEEK 9 DRAFTKINGS PICKS CHEATSHEET

Week 9 PROPS

Here’s where site shopping can really pay dividends. Obviously, it all depends on what available to you to be, but I really like Jordan Akins’ over reception total for a number of reasons — Tyrod’s playing over Mills, Pharaoh Brown is out, the Dolphins are horrendous on short routes over the middle — so I was surprised to see the OVER of 2.5 being the unpopular side

At DK Sportsbook its +135

But if you have Bet365, it’s 20 cents better.

That’s a big different. Especially when it comes down to the value of the bet. I guessed the Run The Sims simulations wouldn’t like it as much as me because mine are almost 100% context + better situation based, and I was right. But that +155 is still the right side.

Despite the model saying the over only hits 44% of the time, it’s still better than the implied odds of 39% you’re getting at the +155. Look, I’d play it if it was +135 if that was my only number because of the aforementioned reasoning, but getting the extra 20 cents is very nice.

Good luck this week

— PM

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