Week 9 Injuries, Updated Rankings, Picks
+ Props & DraftKings Chalk Report
FANTASY PROPS BONUS!!!!
You can still take advantage of the MMN props contest BONUS by simply making a 5-pick entry (NO MNF PLAYERS) for $7.11 on Prize Picks. That amount qualifies it for the contest. A bonus $50 given to anyone who plays an entry for $7.11 and gets all five picks correct. You’d get paid 10x for winning anyway, then another $50 bonus because you played an entry of $7.11. Seems like a good way to get 17x your money for a low investment. Perfect for anyone trying to build a bank roll who doesn’t want to wager much money.
And if you use code “MMNNFL” you’ll get ANOTHER $25 if you play a SNF entry.
I’m going with this as my 2 Picks POWER PLAY for 3x my $$$, and these two will be in my 7/11 contest entry too.
For the SNF football picks, wait closer to kickoff and they’ll release more options for the lesser players in the game. They’ll eventually release a line on Jeremy McNichols reception total and you’ll probably want to take the over if it’s set at 3.5 or lower. I’d probably play the over 4.5 too just cased on how I expect this game to go.
Week 9 Injury Report
Last Updated: Sunday Morning
Next Update: 1135am ET
David Montgomery (knee) May Play on MNF
Elijah Mitchell (ribs) IN
Adrian Peterson SIGNED BY TITANS; IN
Christian McCaffrey (Hamstring) Activated from IR; IN
Josh Jacobs (chest) IN
James Robinson (Heel) OUT
Latavius Murray (ankle) OUT
Saquon Barkley (ankle) OUT
Damien Williams (knee) Likely OUT
Justin Jackson (Quad) OUT
Miles Sanders (ankle) Placed on IR
Jeff Wilson (knee) Could be Activated from IR Soon
Derrick Henry (foot) OUT FOR SEASON
Darrynton Evans OUT FOR SEASON
Tevin Coleman (hamstring) Missed Week 9
A.J. Brown (knee) Likely IN
Julio Jones (hamstring) IN
Rashod Bateman (groin) IN
Amari Cooper (hamstring) IN
CeeDee Lamb (ankle) IN
Michael Gallup (Calf) OUT
Deebo Samuel (calf) Likely IN
Cole Beasley (ribs) IN
Robert Woods (foot) Likely IN
AJ Green (COVID LIST) OUT
Davante Adams (COVID) IN
Marquez Valdez-Scanting (hamstring) Likely IN
Allen Lazard (COVID) IN
DeAndre Hopkins (Hamstring) Likely OUT
Sterling Shepard (hamstring) OUT
Dante Pettis OUT
Kenny Golladay (knee) IN
Jalen Reagor (ankle) IN
Donovan Peoples-Jones (groin) IN
Will Fuller (finger) OUT
Terrance Marshall (concussion) IN
Sammy Watkins (hamstring) OUT
Calvin Ridley (personal) Placed on Reserve LIST; OUT at Least 3 Weeks
Dyami Brown (knee) ON BYE
Antonio Brown (ankle) ON BYE
Curtis Samuel (groin) ON BYE
DeVante Parker (hamstring) OUT; Placed on IR
Odell Beckham Jr. (CUT) OUT
Henry Ruggs (Legal) CUT BY LV
DeSean Jackson CUT BY LAR
Michael Thomas (ankle) OUT FOR SEASON
TY Hilton (Concussion) Missed Week 9
Corey Davis (hip) Likely Missed Week 9
Matthew Stafford (back) Likely IN
Tua Tagovailoa (Finger) NOT STARTING
Kyler Murray (ankle) Likely OUT
Sam Darnold (Concussion) Active; Likely Satrting
Tyrod Taylor (hamstring) Likely to Start
Aaron Rodgers (COVID) OUT
Dak Prescott (calf) Likely IN
Taysom Hill (head) Likely IN, Will Not Start
Mike White (hand) Exited Game Week 9
Jameis Winston (knee) OUT FOR SEASON
Zach Wilson (knee) Missed Week 9
George Kittle (calf) Likely IN
*Expected to play half the snaps
Noah Fant (COVID LIST) OUT
Blake Jarwin (hip) OUT
Eric Ebron (hamstring) Likely OUT
Pharaoh Brown (thigh) OUT
Darren Waller (Ankle) IN
Logan Thomas (hamstring) On IR; Likely back Week 10
Dawson Knox (broken hand) OUT; 1-3 weeks Time Table
Rob Gronkowski (Back) Exited Game; ON BYE
Robert Tonyan (knee) Likely OUT FOR SEASON
WEEK 9 RANKINGS
Last Updated: Sunday Morning
Next Update: 1135am ET
WEEK 9 BEST BETS
You really should be watching the Friday Best Bets show btw. The NFL advice? It’s OK, I suppose, but Rob and Cam together is just the best
TRIVIA QUESTION: There are two players on the Week 9 main slate with over 20 end zone targets since the beginning of last season. Try to guess them before scrolling to the bottom of this newsletter
Prior to their bye in Week 8, the Ravens had been trending towards the pass heaviest version of this Lamar Jackson offense that we’ve ever seen. And, to my knowledge, over the bye week, the team had more time to get creative with their pass game AND did not add any viable running threat. Lamar Jackson averages over 340 total yards in for his career when throwing over 30 passes.
The Falcons are the second worst defense at creating pressure this season and during his four starts last season, Taysom Hill averaged 4-times more fantasy points per pass attempt when NOT pressured than when pressured.
One of these players got 100% of his team’s first quarter RB touches last week: Jonathan Taylor, Austin Ekeler, Boston Scott, D’Andre Swift. That player? Boston Scott. That’s $5,200 Boston Scott. That’s $5,200 Boston Scott facing a defense that allows 5% more yards per carry than any other defense in the NFL.
Amari Cooper averages 15.8% more air yards per target than CeeDee Lamb. Why do I mention that? Well, the Broncos happen to be giving up a TD on 13.1% of deep passes this season, the second highest rate in the NFL.
GALAXY BRAIN: AARON JONES (at Chiefs)
Given the Aaron Rodgers news this week, no one is excited to play a Packer. And if you are going that direction … it’s probably the pass game where you can get a starting quarterback against a bad defense for the price of a Tre’Quan Smith or Ty’Son Williams. I get the appeal there, but the point being that Aaron Jones could well fall into a weird ownership spot.
That’s where we pounce. Remember, the Packers played on Thursday night last week and the Chiefs played on Monday night.
- When both teams are on normal rest, they average 4.31 yards per carry and score once every 29.8 carries.
- When the favorite is on extended rest facing a team on short rest, the numbers fall off a cliff for some reason: 3.98 yards per carry and a TD once every 36.4 carries.
- When the underdog is on extended rest facing a team on short rest, they average 4.63 yards per carry and a score every 24 carries
Now, those last two stats come with a limited sample, but there might be something to it. Underdogs generally want to control the ball, so maybe they use the extended time to scheme runs while the team on short rest is going to be a bit banged up and more likely to cut corners in prep. At the very least, it’s an interesting thread to pull for a talented player that will likely be unpopular. When looking at running backs on DraftKings, we want scoring equity and pass catching potential. Not breaking news there and we check those boxes here …
Over their past 16 games, the Chiefs allow a touchdown on 76.8% of red zone trips, the second worst rate over that stretch
- Aaron Jones gets 3 red zone touches for every 1 that AJ Dillon gets (his edge outside of the red zone: 1.6)
Over the past three weeks, Jones has nearly as many targets (20) as Dillon has routes run (21).
Reminder: rostering chalky players and having a chalky lineup are NOT the same thing. This lineup has a handful of chalky pieces, but the two-TE build along with paying a top-5 price for Jones has me thinking this lineup will be different despite of some popular pieces.
TRIVIA ANSWER: Adam Thielen and Marquise Brown
Week 9 DraftKings Ownership Guesses
A surprise inactive Sunday could throw some of this out of whack, however which so many question marks happening in the late set of games, chalk appears to be concentrating around the top end value who we know are going to be on the field. All week are smart to use the late swap, but this one seems to be that way in particular.
Week 9 PROPS
Here’s where site shopping can really pay dividends. Obviously, it all depends on what available to you to be, but I really like Jordan Akins’ over reception total for a number of reasons — Tyrod’s playing over Mills, Pharaoh Brown is out, the Dolphins are horrendous on short routes over the middle — so I was surprised to see the OVER of 2.5 being the unpopular side
At DK Sportsbook its +135
But if you have Bet365, it’s 20 cents better.
That’s a big different. Especially when it comes down to the value of the bet. I guessed the Run The Sims simulations wouldn’t like it as much as me because mine are almost 100% context + better situation based, and I was right. But that +155 is still the right side.
Despite the model saying the over only hits 44% of the time, it’s still better than the implied odds of 39% you’re getting at the +155. Look, I’d play it if it was +135 if that was my only number because of the aforementioned reasoning, but getting the extra 20 cents is very nice.
Good luck this week