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Week 8 Picks, Ranks, Injuries, Betting Notes
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Week 8 RANKINGS
Week 8 Injury Cheatsheet
Ezekiel Elliott (knee) — Likely OUT
James Conner (Ribs) — OUT
Chuba Hubbard (ankle) — OUT
Cam Akers (Personal) — OUT
D’Andre Swift (Shoulder) — Likely IN
Travis Homer (Ribs) — Likely IN
Darrel Williams (knee) — Questionable
Mike Boone (ankle) — Placed on IR
J.K. Dobbins (knee) — OUT 4-6 Weeks
Amon-Ra St. Brown (concussion) — Likely IN
Elijah Moore (Personal) — IN
Van Jefferson — IN
Deebo Samuel (hamstring) — OUT
Ja'Marr Chase (hip) — Could be OUT 4-6 Weeks
Michael Thomas (Toe) — OUT
Jarvis Landry (Ankle) — OUT
Jahan Dotson (hamstring) — OUT
Allen Lazard (shoulder) — OUT
Corey Davis (knee) — OUT
Kenny Golladay (knee) — OUT
DK Metcalf (knee) — Questionable
Tyler Lockett — Questionable
Nico Collins (groin) — Questionable
Christian Watson (hamstring) — Questionable
Kendrick Bourne (Toe) — Questionable
Russell Gage (hamstring) — DNP
Rashod Bateman (foot) — Exited Game
Daniel Bellinger (eye) — OUT
David Njoku (ankle) — Likely OUT
Adam Trautman (Leg) — Questionable
Darren Waller (hamstring) — Questionable
Logan Thomas (Knee) — Questionable
Mark Andrews (knee) — Exited Game
Cameron Brate (Neck) — DNP
Ryan Tannehill (Ankle) — Likely IN
Russell Wilson (hamstring) — IN
Matt Ryan — OUT
Ryan Armour — A peek back as those who consistently play well in Bermuda reveals accurate drivers and fantastic putters. Few are more accurate than Armour, and the putter? Well, it’s the true song of nice and fire. He’s dropped on the greens four of his past six starts but in the two he gained: +4.2 and +6.0 SG: PUTT.
Scott Piercy — With expected gusty conditions all weekend long, expect chaos. In times like this, turning to one of the premier difficult condition players over the past decade. It’s always a crap shoot which Piercy will show up on a weekly basis, but in a weak field event, which could be tuned upside down by the elements, taking someone with winning upside at deep odds feel like a good gamble.
Adam Long — To fit the theme, he’s accurate and putts the lights out. He’s essentially whaat you’re betting with Denny McCarthy but with a higher likelihood having a spike week with the driver and irons.
Also, Cust, Geoff and I got together to chat LIV vs PGA and shoot the shit if you’re interested….
GALAXY BRAIN: Bucking The Trend
Lamar Jackson. Josh Allen. Joe Burrow. Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert. With all of those guys off the DK Main Slate this weekend, this could be a low scoring week … thus making a unique focus even more value as it might be the ONLY way to get to the top of GPP’s. Jalen Hurts’ price jumps off the page, but he’s going to be popular. People are winning their season long leagues because of him and he comes with the “absence makes the heart grow fonder” narrative as he has been off the board in consecutive Main Slates (SNF in Week 6, bye in Week 7). If you’re buying Hurts as popular, the fact that he is on a tier of his own in terms of pricing allows you to project how your opponents are going to build their rosters. Gold.
OK, so if we are off of Hurts, we are essentially saying Pittsburgh either keeps this game low scoring or keeps it close … or both. If that’s the case, Najee Harris ranking 5th in RB touch percentage this season should have your attention. The (obvious) concern on Harris, other than game flow, is this offensive line. Well, did you know that the Eagles allow the 2nd most yards per RB carry after contact? I trust Harris to run hard and with a stat like that, maybe he can break the slate. Him breaking the slate would mean Pittsburgh is controlling the clock, thus limiting the Eagle volume and potentially sinking lineups that stacked up that side of this game … so by risking Harris, you’re telling a story that not only gives you a strong producer, but also cuts down the number of contenders in your way.
If I’m right that the Eagles offense is popular, that means we could get a very concentrated Dolphins offense in Detroit at a reasonable ownership discount. In on that idea. Very much so. Build around that base (Miami triple with Najee Harris) and you’re on your way. The Commanders have excelled at getting pressure this season without blitzing, a sneaky stat that is helpful in all matchups, but especially one with a new quarterback. If the Commanders control that game (betting against Indy is something I’m more than OK with), stacking Brian Robinson with this defense makes plenty of sense and isn’t too cost prohibitive. This is only one way of doing the “fade the Eagles” thing. Is it risky? Of course and tune in as the week goes and ownership rates solidify, but if they are going to be THAT popular, this is a path that jumps out for those in the GPP streets in Week 8!
Week 8 DraftKings
Obviously, all the numbers will get fine tuned through the week injuries becomed settled and situations are made far more clear, but I always like to see what the inital run of numbers say after we have a clearer idea of what the injury report is going to be.
At Run the Sims, I simulated the main slate for Sunday 10,000 times and here’s what those sims say the optimal plays are across the slate. The early sims love the Eagles triple if you can find a Steeler to go with them, you’re dancing.
NFL TOOLS: 10% OFF OPTIMIZER, CUSTOM PROJECTIONS, LINEUP GENERATOR on Weekly, Monthly or Annual Plan
Week 8 Spread Picks
YouTube has been processing the video for over two hours at this point, much like last week. I believe the SD version is available NOW and the HD will come in time. Could be 45 seconds, could be 12 hours.
Since it waas delayed I decided to simply publish the audio of the show tonight. Leave a rating and review (And SUB FOR THE LOVE OF GOD) in the meantime…
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Also, the PME DK League is open for business in Week 8. Here’s the direct link…