Week 8 Injury Report, Player Notes, Picks
DK Picks, Ownership & Props
WATCH: Week 8 Prize Picks & Prop Bets
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Here’s the two plays I’m on this week. (More props below btw)
Week 8 Injury Report
Last Updated: Sunday 12pm ET
WATCH: Week 8 Injuries & Rankings Fallout
Running Back
Jamaal Williams OUT
Jordan Howard (From Practice Squad) Likely IN
Austin Ekeler (hip) Likely IN
Alex Collins (hip) Likely IN
Mark Ingram (Traded to Saints) Likely IN
Nick Chubb (Calf) IN
Miles Sanders (ankle) OUT; Placed on IR
Saquon Barkley (ankle) Doubtful; Could be back Week 9
Tevin Coleman (hamstring) OUT
Chris Evans (hamstring) OUT
Darrynton Evans OUT FOR SEASON
Taysom Hill (head) OUT
Ty Johnson (concussion) Likely IN
Josh Jacobs (chest) On Bye
Latavius Murray (ankle) On Bye
Wide Receiver
Calvin Ridley (personal) OUT
Corey Davis (hip) OUT
Julio Jones (hamstring) OUT
DeSean Jackson (asked for trade) OUT
Donovan Peoples-Jones (groin) OUT
TY Hilton (quad) IN
Will Fuller (finger) OUT
Michael Gallup Likely to Play off IR
Deonte Harris (hamstring) Likely IN
Dyami Brown (knee) OUT
Sterling Shepard (hamstring) Likely IN
DeVante Parker (hammy) IN
Jerry Jeudy (foot) Questionable
Michael Thomas (ankle) OUT; Expected back Week 9/10
Antonio Brown (ankle) OUT
Kadarius Toney (ankle) Likely IN
Terrance Marshall (concussion) OUT
Kenny Golladay (knee) Likely OUT
Curtis Samuel (groin) OUT
Sammy Watkins (hamstring) On Bye
Quarterback
Dak Prescott (calf) Game Time Decision
Zach Wilson (knee) OUT
Tyrod Taylor (hamstring) Will NOT Start
Baker Mayfield (shoulder) Will Start
Tight End
Eric Ebron (hamstring) OUT
Pharaoh Brown (thigh) OUT
Jonnu Smith (shoulder) Likely IN
Rob Gronkowski (Ribs) Likely IN
Jimmy Graham (COVID 19) Questionable
Robert Tonyan (knee) Likely OUT FOR SEASON
Dawson Knox (broken hand) Likely OUT 2-4 weeks
Darren Waller (Ankle) On Bye
WATCH: Week 8 Rankings Breakdown
Week 8 Rankings Lists
Last Updated: Sunday 12pm ET
RB https://bit.ly/21W8RB
WR https://bit.ly/21W8WRs
QB https://bit.ly/21W8QB
TE/DST https://bit.ly/21W8TEDST
WEEK 8 DRAFTKINGS
PLAY: In the PME DK RAKE FREE Listener’s League
Beyond the ability to simulate the slate 10,000 times, use the optimizer and all the other projection tools, the Optimal Leverage calculator at Run The Sims is an awesome feature. Essentially, after simulating the slate 10,000 times, it takes the number of times each player appears in the optimal lineup and weighs it against his projected ownership. For example, Cooper Kupp is the WR in the optimal lineup most often (12.3%), but his ownership is projected over 20%, thus making him a -8% in the leverage department.
The best leverage WRs in Week 8…
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Users are starting to cash, especially on Showdown Slates, but RTS Co-Founder Justin Freeman has now won the largest GPP for TNF the last TWO WEEKS. And the good news? The stock projections in the RTS system are Justin’s projections. So, if you don’t customize them, you’ll play the same numbers he is.
Galaxy Brain Time: Lineup construction that is SHIT (truly)
If you read this section, you’re here for the uniqueness of the research. The type of stuff that others are afraid to play. The type that could burn your lunch money on fire .. or maybe turn it into a new house? This write-up comes with a warning label. BE CAREFUL. I chose this acronym for a reason. Things could easily go sideways. But it’s rare that the pieces can fall this nicely in such a weird spot. So here we go with a lineup that could be … Semi Helpful In Tournaments
Fact: the defense facing this double stack creates pressure that the 3rd lowest rate in the NFL, including the WORST pressure rate when they blitz. Their pressure rate has dipped in consecutive weeks and they made the opposing QB uncomfortable on just 1 of 10 blitzes last week. So they can’t speed up the opposition and even when they try to send help, it doesn’t work. Seems like a good spot. Even better when I’m suggesting you play a QB against this defense that averages 237.5% more fantasy points per pass attempt when not pressured then when pressured.
Fact: The receiver duo that is stacked in this lineup sees their target market share jump from 40% when the QB is pressured to 52.5% when not pressured.
Fact: the defense facing this double stack allows the 3rd most yards per deep completion and opponents are on-target with a league-high 80% of deep passes against them. Hmm. The receiver duo that is stacked in this lineup owns a 71.4% deep target market share (42.9% on non-deep passes).
Fact: this QB has seen his pass attempt count rise every game this month while also posting his top two rushing totals of the season over the past two weeks.
Fact: Everyone here at MMN is sending you good vibes if you’ve been sold on this blind GBT. Now … time to reveal the lineup that certainly won’t be duplicated by anybody not on this distribution list:
Fact: This is a good way to lose money.
Quirks:
- Bills defense (paying up to be different, if they were to score, it takes food off the plate of what I expect to be an ultra-chalky Bills offense)
- One-off exposure to the Bucs pass game in Chris Godwin (the Saints play slow, no one is stopping the Bucs, but could could this reflect Week 6 … the Bucs scored 4 times, but only one player had 50 receiving yards)
- Two pay-up backs that could well combine for 60 touches
Week 8 FANTASY PLAYER NOTES
Jonathan Taylor (vs. Titans)
If the top of the RB board is popular (Henry is a cheat code, Kamara showed out in an island spot last week, Ekeler/Harris have unquestioned usage and are coming off byes), Taylor is going to be overlooked. Don’t make that mistake. He’s racked up at least 110 total yards and a touchdown in 4 straight (he also has a 30+ yard touch in all of those games) and gets a Titans defense that allows the 6th most red zone drives per game. If you want to pay up to be a bit different, this might be your spot at the running back position.
Chuba Hubbard (at Falcons)
This season, only 14 players have more carries than Hubbard. BUT … 55 players have multiple 15-yard runs and Hubbard isn’t one of them. The “at Falcons” label looks favorable in the eyes of the public and because “28th” is written in green on DraftKings for the opponent positional rank, Hubbard will generate some interest. But is he any good? And what about Atlanta allowing the second fewest yards per carry after contact to RBs this season? I’d rather almost every other running back in the $5500-$6500 range over $6,000 Hubbard this week.
Quez Watkins (at Lions)
Want non-chalk Eagle exposure this week? Watkins has three of Philadelphia’s top four aDOT games this season and I don’t think it’s an accident that opponents are on target with 76.9% of deep passes against Detroit this season (3rd highest).
Noah Fant (vs. Washington)
Red hot Kyle Pitts and Mike Gesicki will likely drive the pay up TE ownership. Dallas Goedert and Tyler Higbee will draw attention given the opponent, not to mention the natural stack for a QB in a great spot. Forgotten among the top-10 TE could well be Noah Fant, who happens to face a bad Washington with the benefit of a mini-bye. Who happens to have more slot receiving yards than any two of his teammates combined and is facing a defense that allows the 4th highest slot completion percentage this season.
Week 8 Ownership Chalk Guesses
RB
Darrell Henderson
Derrick Henry
D’Andre Swift
WR
Cooper Kupp
Chris Godwin
AJ Brown
Tee Higgins
QB
Josh Allen
Jalen Hurts
TE
Ricky Seals-Jones
Dallas Goedert
Kyle Pitts
DST
Bengals
Football Team
Bills
Week 8 BETS
Like we do every Friday me, Pizzola, and Cam yucked it up and gave out our fav bets for Week 8
WATCH: WEEK 8 BEST BETS
Week 8 PROPS
On top of those, I bet the Trevor Lawrence over 17.5 rushing yards. He’s hit that over in four of his past five games.
I’m waiting for the Michael Carter reception prop. These cowardly Sportsbooks won’t release a number. The receiving yardage prop is 22.5 currently, and while I do like the over, I’d prefer an over 2.5 receptions bet. Let’s just hope that’s the line. In fact, you could probably play Carter and Ty Johnson over receptions with Corey Davis and Tevin Coleman out. Magic Mike enjoys himself a dump off.
Last one I quite enjoy is Pat Freiermuth aka FIRE MOUTH o3.5 receptions. No Ebron, no Juju; guess who is running those short routes for Ben? Granted, it’s a pretty lofty number based on his performance this year, but the expanded opportunity combined with his low aDOT puts him in the realm of 5-8 targets in this game if the Steelers are within a score or trailing against Cleveland. Just need to fade a deep Diontae or Claypool TD to start and it should be good. I prefer he 3.5 receptions to his listed yardage prop of 33.5, however I’ll be going with the receiving yards over the receptions on Prize Picks, and it’s nine yards shorter set at 24.5.
Deposit at Prize Picks using code “MMN” and get up to a $100 deposit bonus
If you’re active on things, Prize Picks is a good place to exploit since they update their lines wayyyyyyyyyy after Sportsbooks. If you scan right after an injury, you can take them if you’re quick enough.
WATCH: WEEK 8 SPREAD PICKS
Beyond the terrible picks, Cust also delivered some awful Halloween tips on the show…
Good luck this week.
— PM