Week 7 WEEKEND UPDATE - Injuries, Top Props, DraftKings Notes
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RB
David Montgomery (Ribs) — OUT
Jerome Ford (ankle) — Game Time Decision; Expected OUT
Zack Moss (Elbow) — Game Time Decision; Expected OUT
Kareem Hunt (thigh) — IN
Roschon Johnson (Concussion) — IN
Zach Charbonnet (Hamstring) — IN
Bijan Robinson (Headaches) — Expected IN
Raheem Mostert (ankle) — Expected IN
Week 8 Rankings
RB https://bit.ly/23W8RBRankings
WR https://bit.ly/23W8WRRankings
QB https://bit.ly/23W8QBRankings
TE/DST https://bit.ly/23W8TEDSTRanks
WR
Laviska Shenault Jr. (Ankle) — OUT
Zay Jones (knee) — OUT
Justyn Ross (Suspension) — OUT
Robert Woods (Foot) — OUT
Deebo Samuel (Shoulder) — Expected OUT
Tyler Lockett (hamstring) — Expected IN
Christian Watson (Knee) — Expected IN
Tyreek Hill (hip) — Expected IN
Josh Palmer (ankle) — Expected IN
Justin Watson (Elbow) — Expected IN
JuJu Smith-Schuster (Head) — Expected IN
Chris Moore (Concussion) — Questionable
TE
Brevin Jordan (foot) — OUT
Kylen Granson (concussion) — OUT
Luke Musgrave (ankle) — Game Time Decision
Gerald Everett (Quad) — Expected IN
Greg Dulcich (hamstring) — Placed on IR
Zach Ertz (Quad) — Placed on IR
Pat Freiermuth (Hamstring) — Placed on IR
Dawson Knox (Wrist) — Placed on IR
QB
Brock Purdy (Concussion) — Expected IN
Jimmy Garoppolo (Back) — IN
Kyler Murray — OUT
Deshaun Watson (Shoulder) — OUT; PJ Walker Starting
Justin Fields (Thumb) — OUT; T Bag Starting
Ryan Tannehill (Ankle) — OUT; Will Levis Starting
Daniel Jones (Neck) — OUT
WEEK 8 PROPS
The prop sniper is recommending a low receptions under as the top play (for the moment; the Sunday Sims may reveal something different). Winning, very fun. Sweat an under the entire time, never fun. Unless you’re a giant werido. It makes a lot of sense, though.
SUB TO RUN THE SIMS PROP TOOLS PACKAGE
(Code “MAYO” gets you 10% discount btw)
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine will be seeing passes from Will Levis and maybe Malik Willis instead of Ryan Tannehill. Chris Moore AND Treylon Burks will be active for the Titans. Over the past two TEN games Burks has been OUT, and Moore exited vs BAL after getting ROCKED. And over that stretch, two games, NWI has still only seen an 11% target share and just 16% of the Air Yards. Hopefully they don’t just run bubble screens with him all game and pile up those easy catches.
I tried the Same Parlay with under receptions and yardage, and it only boost it to +175, which I think adds too much risk into the equation. and yes, I play these. i play a lot of these.
Additionally, since the prop sniper as proven to be so popular, Run The Sims has added two more tools to the Sniper for 1st TD and Anytime TD. Basically, all the 1st TD sims prove is that the 1st TD market has basically no value because of the hold in the market (Although Darrell Henderson looks OKish).
The anytime TD market is very interesting, however. Of note, with Zack Moss currently projected as OUT, Sermon skyrockets based on his odds. But Moss isn’t officially OUT. If he’s in, there’s no value in the Sermon bet. Similar thinking if Jerome Ford is offically active for CLE at SEA and how that would depress Hunt across the board.
CHEATSHEETS
We made picks and discovered Cust puts up his Halloween decorations on Sept 9th.
WATCH: Week 8 Picks Against The Spread, NFL Game Previews | Cust Corner
Rob and Cam have been doing the heavy lifting, Cam is developing his “Theme System” for picks
WATCH: Week 8 Best Bets + Teaser
Week 8 DFS NOTES
First off, if you missed Tambo and I building lineups and talking through the slate Friday, what are you even doing with your life? Change that NOW
WATCH: Week 8 DraftKings Picks & Lineups
The only change between now and then is my interest in the HOU/CAR game with Woods OUT, tightening up the HOU offense. Both sides.
Sneaky Stack
With no teams on a bye and Jalen Hurts/Patrick Mahomes both on the main slate, fortune could favor the bold if you get creative for your core. It worked for me with Bryce Young earning me a King of the Beach seat and while I like Young in this spot, you can get even grosser. What about a Derek Carr-Chris Olave-Alvin Kamara triple? You can bring it back however you'd like (Josh Downs if you want to save money and target the chalk plays elsewhere), but the idea here is simple. The Saints offense may not be exciting, but since Kamara debuted, he and Olave have combined for over 46% of the targets and over 64% of the rushing yards. That's a pretty rare combination and Carr has thrown 50+ passes in consecutive games. Oh yea, and the Minshew Effect ... 134 total points have been scored over the past two weeks in Colt games.
Chalk RBs
With Kamara, I'm considering 3-RB structures this week. The Broncos and Giants are two of the three defenses on this slate allowing 5+ yards per carry this season, putting Isiah Pacheco and Breece Hall in potential smash spots. Pacheco has at least 17 touches in five straight while Hall is averaging seven yards per touch this month. If you get funky with your stack, you can afford to swallow some chalk ... Tambo always tells us that it's not who you play, but how you do it.
Super Sophomores
We get all excited about rookies because we've never seen them fail and sometimes that means we neglect the second-year players. George Pickens and Drake London are two sophomores in great spots this week that deserve your attention. Pickens' usage didn't dip with Diontae Johnson returning and against a Jags defense that struggles to get home when blitzing, those Pickett-to-Pickens bombs have a decent shot at connecting in single coverage. As for London, the Falcons are showing some signs of growth and any positive trend is worth a look when facing the pass funnel Titans (5th most YPA). He had an end zone target and a near touchdown last week ... with his volume, a touchdown should allow him to easily pay off his price tag this week with the runway for much more!
Gross D/ST
The New York Giants had six sacks last week and have allowed under 20 points in three of their past four. This is a brutal group, but they get you access to a Zach Wilson matchup at a very reasonable price. They aren't good ... but that doesn't mean they won't be valuable in DFS Week 8.
Ownership
As is standard, the ownership will get more reliable Sunday after inactives, but here’s how ownership is shaking out for RBs on the main slate
If Zack Moss sits, Taylor will rise. And if Jerome Ford is announced OUT in the morning, expect Kareem Hunt in the $5K range to value up the ownership board. But since that’s a late game, it may keep his ownership in check if that information is unknown before lock.
— PM